Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Mr.Nice Guy

It's looking very tight on the arithmetic. If the DUP come out with a strong condemnation, coupled with the Brexit Party doing similar, I could see ERG members that are on the fence being spooked and moving towards rejection.

Headshot

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Big day. All blacks and Brexit or ABexit and Brexit

I'm going to be in do not disturb mode and stuck to the TV

With the popcorn ready to go

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1184220192349532161


https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1184217477196242944


This is one way to beat the Brexit party. Become the Brexit party!

Leroy42

But its really this deal or massive extension and possible revoke.

No deal is not an option. So the likes of IDS etc have a big decision to make.

And of course, whilst they may feel the deal is not ideal, it comes down to beating back the BP at the next election.

And they will convince themselves and everyone else, that it's only temporary until they get the FTA and with it freedom

lawred2

How many more Tories can the Tory party boot out before they have less parliamentary members than that labour party?

Enzokk

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If ERG is split Johnson will probably be able to get it through with the help of Labour rebels. I reckon ERG needs to by and large hold itself together to be able to block it.

There were 5 Labour rebels last time. This deal will not be better for Labour to accept it, so how many more can they expect? I doubt they will get more than the 5 that voted for the previous deal, with it being at best the same deal or even worse than the deal they rejected last time. An extension isn't ruling out Brexit.

threeball

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems like the ERG are split:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184217191631249408

Brexit eats everyone.

If they eject these guys from the party won't they just run for the brexit party. The Tories are coming apart at the seams. Massive split on the cards in the near future.

Itssoeasy

lawred2 wrote: »

How many more Tories can the Tory party boot out before they have less parliamentary members than that labour party?

Assuming the rebels from the last time are still on the outs then 44.

Leroy42

threeball wrote: »

If they eject these guys from the party won't they just run for the brexit party. The Tories are coming apart at the seams. Massive split on the cards in the near future.

No, this can't be right. They voted Johnson in to save the party. The only problem was that Major/Cameron/TM were all remainers and once they got a true believer in everything would be grand.

Itssoeasy

So could this be as close as that vote of confidence in 1979 when the British government fell by one vote and Maggie thatcher became prime minister in the election that followed ? That's the impression I'm getting from reading posts here ? The sums looks very tight.

Water John

Over 20 Lb would be needed to say its safe at going through, allowing 10 ERG and 10 DUP voting No.

He could always say it would have a confirmatory Ref and it will fly through. Since he has walked back so far another bit won't harm him.

brick tamland

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Assuming the rebels from the last time are still on the outs then 44.

Some/most of the rebels will vote for the deal. Same deal most of the voted for before. Need to cover the DUP and however many have crossed over to Lib Dems. Still doubtful i think.

Although will DUP vote for it if bribed enough?????

Sierra Oscar

Water John wrote: »

Over 20 Lb would be needed to say its safe at going through, allowing 10 ERG and 10 DUP voting No.

He could always say it would have a confirmatory Ref and it will fly through. Since he has walked back so far another bit won't harm him.

If a deal is reached then I think it means it has DUP buy-in and that they will support it. Can't see a deal being closed if DUP support hasn't been boxed off.

All the indications tonight seem to suggest that the DUP are about to be bought off with a few billion pounds. The DUP aren't entirely stupid, they know the serious risks associated with a no-deal and that it will put a united Ireland firmly on the agenda in the years ahead.

Water John

Their core instinct is always, NO. They, despite the two meeting in Downing St may baulk. I think Johnson is so desperate to bring back a Deal, he can always take it into a GE.
He'll bank on the people wanting the issue finished with.

FrancieBrady

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If a deal is reached then I think it means it has DUP buy-in and that they will support it. Can't see a deal being closed if DUP support hasn't been boxed off.

All the indications tonight seem to suggest that the DUP are about to be bought off with a few billion pounds. The DUP aren't entirely stupid, they know the serious risks associated with a no-deal and that it will put a united Ireland firmly on the agenda in the years ahead.

I agree with this.

They will just hunker down and claim the deal is something other than what they said Never Never to. They have plenty of form and experience in doing this. The AIA and the GFA they are desperately trying to hide behind now.

Joe_ Public

Any Labour mp voting yes will not only be faced with losing the whip, but very possibly with facing deselection as well. Some might still cave but think there will be powerful incentives for them not to. Bottom line: Johnson will still need the dup if he's serious about passing his deal.

Strazdas

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I agree with this.

They will just hunker down and claim the deal is something other than what they said Never Never to. They have plenty of form and experience in doing this. The AIA and the GFA they are desperately trying to hide behind now.

That is definitely a possibility. Deny that the arrangement for NI is what it is, claim it is something else and then pocket a few billion in the process.

Sierra Oscar

Strazdas wrote: »

That is definitely a possibility. Deny that the arrangement for NI is what it is, claim it is something else and then pocket a few billion in the process.

Exactly, you can see the script starting to emerge by some of the briefings that seem to be going on.

The DUP claim victory as Northern Ireland is technically leaving the Customs Union (although in reality it's basically not given the complicated tariffs / rebate system that is being proposed). Then the DUP claim they have delivered a fantastic deal for Northern Ireland as it gives the area a competitive edge over Ireland and makes it 'the' place to do business as the halfway house between the EU and the UK. Finally, they point to the billions of pounds they have secured for Northern Ireland as a winner.

Now the whole thing could still fall apart over night, but that's the spin the DUP will put on things if they ultimately capitulate. They need a way out and this supposed compromise / fudge on Northern Ireland being sort of in and sort of out of the Customs Union gives them that out. I guess it all comes down to the DUP having to take a leap of faith and if they are comfortable in doing that.

Mr.Nice Guy

I can't see him getting the DUP on board if the rumours going around are true. This is from Alex Kane, one of the better unionist commentators:

So if Patterson, who has been briefed on the deal, is under impression that ‘part of (UK) territory’—by which he means NI—is under threat in Johnson’s deal it explains why DUP is so concerned right now.

Seems a stretch if there are ERG members howling about this being a constitutional outrage, that the DUP are just going to say 'Nah, it'll be grand.' That's not usually how they operate. They want to be seen to be the defenders of the Union, the most hardline of hardline.

More likely tomorrow we'll have Arlene looking grave, flanked by Nigel Dodds and Sammy Wilson, saying how they can't possibly support this deal which threatens the constitutional integrity of the UK etc.

Only way I can see them spinning this positively is if the reports of it being close to the NI backstop are quite a way off.

CelticRambler

All this talk of numbers for and against ignores the third option: abstention. If the supposed "deal" is indigestible but tolerable for some/many Labour supporters or Tory rebels, they might hedge their election bets by abstaining rather than voting against. So Johnson could get it through on a 51-49% split based on 66% of the HoC.

Sierra Oscar

https://twitter.com/SiCarswell/status/1184233827104935936

The British prime minister spent the eleventh hour haggling with Arlene Foster, leader of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party, over a big cash payment for the region to help secure her support for the deal taking shape in Brussels.

One person briefed on the negotiations said the DUP was asking for “billions not millions” for Northern Ireland.

DUP looking for lots and lots of cash according to the FT.

Strazdas

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SiCarswell/status/1184233827104935936



DUP looking for lots and lots of cash according to the FT.

Ben Lowry on the Tonight Show says he would be appalled if the DUP were bought off by Johnson (but he doesn't seem surprised by the FT story either).

devnull

Honestly, if the ERG are split and the DUP are not going to back this then I can see that there's not going to the arithmetic to get this through Parliament which means it's anybodies guess what happens next, with Johnson still talking about a second letter etc.

Seeing what happened with the last round of indicative votes, Lib Dems are going to vote against anything short of a referendum or revoke A50 and Jeremy Corbyn cares first and foremost about becoming Prime Minister so he'll whip his party very hard to vote against it.

Some people who voted against softer Brexit options in the indicative votes are going to have to look themselves in the mirror and ask themselves are they willing to vote this down and risk ending up with an even worse outcome in the vain hope of getting an unlikely revoke, in light of the fact that doing so last time has simply taken softer Brexits off the table whilst leaving No Deal there.

devnull

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SiCarswell/status/1184233827104935936

DUP looking for lots and lots of cash according to the FT.

They are in good position to have leverage to extort as much money as possible out of the Conservatives with the arithmetic the way it is, but they're only going to get the money if they can bring the ERG with them and it passes, which is still going to be tough.

The Tories probably see this as a way to both get the DUP votes as well as assist with getting the ERG on to back the deal. But even with the whole ERG and the whole DUP backing it they're still going to have to get a number of opposition figures to vote for it unless some abstain, which is unlikely in my book.

There's still a long way to go before this is home and hosed.

Harry Palmr

As ever, loyal to the Half Crown.

It feels like this is going to get dragged across the line, everyone kicking and screaming. Or holding their noses at least. Even enough Labour MPs will wearily wave this through I think.

"Leave Means Please Can We Leave Now? "

reslfj

Sam Russell wrote: »

.....
For trade ex NI to GB, the UK could allow goods in tariff free. So cheddar cheese could be packaged in NI and shipped tariff free to GB, with perhaps the same for beef.

Unless there is a comprehensive FTA (or better) EU-UK, the UK will have to allow tariff free import from all WTO members, not just NI.
The proposed 'No Deal' UK import tariffs for industrial products are low or zero and important food products will get MFN tariffs in the 5% range into (UK) GB.

Very little GB farm products, I guess, will need to move into NI from GB.

I think NTB will be a a much bigger problem for smaller NI business than tariffs across the Irish Sea border.

Key tariffs for agri products are listed here.
https://ahdb.org.uk/uk-and-eu-import-tariffs-under-no-deal-brexit

Sam Russell wrote: »

Now, any goods coming from GB to NI would undergo customs and SM checks, but most such goods currently pass through Dublin Port.
....

After Brexit sealed lorries will pass from Dublin into NI and only SPS checks will be needed (as now done in Ireland or at Larne) in case of a 'No Deal', if the lorries can get permits to drive in the EU27 (here Ireland).

Lars

CelticRambler

It's 45 minutes past midnight, CET. Should I stay up and wait to watch the EU blinking at the last minute, live on Sky, or should I just go to bed and trust that ye won't have added 15 pages to this thread by the time I wake up ...? :pac:

While making my mind up, I'm puzzled by the view expressed above that this rumoured deal, i.e. May's deal v.0.0.1 is worse than May's deals v.1.0, v.1.1 & v.1.2. I thought that, at the time the DUP went berserk following Tony Connolly's precipitous report, we were all agreed that it was a "best we/they can hope for" deal? Within the context of the sheer stupidity that is Brexit, obviously.

Mr.Nice Guy

If it's a deal where NI remains inside the UK Customs Union the DUP might be able to sell that. Will be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday.

jimmycrackcorm

Deleted User wrote: »

Between Cash for Ash, TM's billion and now this, the DUP will be well stocked with funds. No doubt they will use them for the benefit and prosperity of all of NI and its people.

If the EU are too provide funding, then I
think we should be demanding the A5 upgrade between Derry and Monaghan, and the Catholic extension of the M2 motorway completed to Derry as part of that.

A bitter sweet taste of funding.

jimmycrackcorm

Water John wrote: »

Their core instinct is always, NO. They, despite the two meeting in Downing St may baulk. I think Johnson is so desperate to bring back a Deal, he can always take it into a GE.
He'll bank on the people wanting the issue finished with.

The beauty of it is that the cornerstone now will be the sea border. So even if there is an extension because of parliment arithmetic, this will be the deal agreed o it'sr no deal and we already know, no deal will never get accepted.