Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

threeball · 15-10-2019 10:57PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems like the ERG are split:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184217191631249408

Brexit eats everyone.

If they eject these guys from the party won't they just run for the brexit party. The Tories are coming apart at the seams. Massive split on the cards in the near future.

Itssoeasy · 15-10-2019 11:02PM

lawred2 wrote: »

How many more Tories can the Tory party boot out before they have less parliamentary members than that labour party?

Assuming the rebels from the last time are still on the outs then 44.

Leroy42 · 15-10-2019 11:04PM

threeball wrote: »

If they eject these guys from the party won't they just run for the brexit party. The Tories are coming apart at the seams. Massive split on the cards in the near future.

No, this can't be right. They voted Johnson in to save the party. The only problem was that Major/Cameron/TM were all remainers and once they got a true believer in everything would be grand.

Itssoeasy · 15-10-2019 11:05PM

So could this be as close as that vote of confidence in 1979 when the British government fell by one vote and Maggie thatcher became prime minister in the election that followed ? That's the impression I'm getting from reading posts here ? The sums looks very tight.

Water John · 15-10-2019 11:07PM

Over 20 Lb would be needed to say its safe at going through, allowing 10 ERG and 10 DUP voting No.

He could always say it would have a confirmatory Ref and it will fly through. Since he has walked back so far another bit won't harm him.

brick tamland · 15-10-2019 11:07PM

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Assuming the rebels from the last time are still on the outs then 44.

Some/most of the rebels will vote for the deal. Same deal most of the voted for before. Need to cover the DUP and however many have crossed over to Lib Dems. Still doubtful i think.

Although will DUP vote for it if bribed enough?????

Sierra Oscar · 15-10-2019 11:12PM

Water John wrote: »

Over 20 Lb would be needed to say its safe at going through, allowing 10 ERG and 10 DUP voting No.

He could always say it would have a confirmatory Ref and it will fly through. Since he has walked back so far another bit won't harm him.

If a deal is reached then I think it means it has DUP buy-in and that they will support it. Can't see a deal being closed if DUP support hasn't been boxed off.

All the indications tonight seem to suggest that the DUP are about to be bought off with a few billion pounds. The DUP aren't entirely stupid, they know the serious risks associated with a no-deal and that it will put a united Ireland firmly on the agenda in the years ahead.

Water John · 15-10-2019 11:16PM

Their core instinct is always, NO. They, despite the two meeting in Downing St may baulk. I think Johnson is so desperate to bring back a Deal, he can always take it into a GE.
He'll bank on the people wanting the issue finished with.

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2019 11:16PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If a deal is reached then I think it means it has DUP buy-in and that they will support it. Can't see a deal being closed if DUP support hasn't been boxed off.

All the indications tonight seem to suggest that the DUP are about to be bought off with a few billion pounds. The DUP aren't entirely stupid, they know the serious risks associated with a no-deal and that it will put a united Ireland firmly on the agenda in the years ahead.

I agree with this.

They will just hunker down and claim the deal is something other than what they said Never Never to. They have plenty of form and experience in doing this. The AIA and the GFA they are desperately trying to hide behind now.

Joe_ Public · 15-10-2019 11:19PM

Any Labour mp voting yes will not only be faced with losing the whip, but very possibly with facing deselection as well. Some might still cave but think there will be powerful incentives for them not to. Bottom line: Johnson will still need the dup if he's serious about passing his deal.

Strazdas · 15-10-2019 11:21PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I agree with this.

They will just hunker down and claim the deal is something other than what they said Never Never to. They have plenty of form and experience in doing this. The AIA and the GFA they are desperately trying to hide behind now.

That is definitely a possibility. Deny that the arrangement for NI is what it is, claim it is something else and then pocket a few billion in the process.

Sierra Oscar · 15-10-2019 11:27PM

Strazdas wrote: »

That is definitely a possibility. Deny that the arrangement for NI is what it is, claim it is something else and then pocket a few billion in the process.

Exactly, you can see the script starting to emerge by some of the briefings that seem to be going on.

The DUP claim victory as Northern Ireland is technically leaving the Customs Union (although in reality it's basically not given the complicated tariffs / rebate system that is being proposed). Then the DUP claim they have delivered a fantastic deal for Northern Ireland as it gives the area a competitive edge over Ireland and makes it 'the' place to do business as the halfway house between the EU and the UK. Finally, they point to the billions of pounds they have secured for Northern Ireland as a winner.

Now the whole thing could still fall apart over night, but that's the spin the DUP will put on things if they ultimately capitulate. They need a way out and this supposed compromise / fudge on Northern Ireland being sort of in and sort of out of the Customs Union gives them that out. I guess it all comes down to the DUP having to take a leap of faith and if they are comfortable in doing that.

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 11:30PM

I can't see him getting the DUP on board if the rumours going around are true. This is from Alex Kane, one of the better unionist commentators:

So if Patterson, who has been briefed on the deal, is under impression that ‘part of (UK) territory’—by which he means NI—is under threat in Johnson’s deal it explains why DUP is so concerned right now.

Seems a stretch if there are ERG members howling about this being a constitutional outrage, that the DUP are just going to say 'Nah, it'll be grand.' That's not usually how they operate. They want to be seen to be the defenders of the Union, the most hardline of hardline.

More likely tomorrow we'll have Arlene looking grave, flanked by Nigel Dodds and Sammy Wilson, saying how they can't possibly support this deal which threatens the constitutional integrity of the UK etc.

Only way I can see them spinning this positively is if the reports of it being close to the NI backstop are quite a way off.

CelticRambler · 15-10-2019 11:31PM

All this talk of numbers for and against ignores the third option: abstention. If the supposed "deal" is indigestible but tolerable for some/many Labour supporters or Tory rebels, they might hedge their election bets by abstaining rather than voting against. So Johnson could get it through on a 51-49% split based on 66% of the HoC.

Sierra Oscar · 15-10-2019 11:34PM

https://twitter.com/SiCarswell/status/1184233827104935936

The British prime minister spent the eleventh hour haggling with Arlene Foster, leader of Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist party, over a big cash payment for the region to help secure her support for the deal taking shape in Brussels.

One person briefed on the negotiations said the DUP was asking for “billions not millions” for Northern Ireland.

DUP looking for lots and lots of cash according to the FT.

Strazdas · 15-10-2019 11:38PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SiCarswell/status/1184233827104935936

DUP looking for lots and lots of cash according to the FT.

Ben Lowry on the Tonight Show says he would be appalled if the DUP were bought off by Johnson (but he doesn't seem surprised by the FT story either).

devnull · 15-10-2019 11:40PM

Honestly, if the ERG are split and the DUP are not going to back this then I can see that there's not going to the arithmetic to get this through Parliament which means it's anybodies guess what happens next, with Johnson still talking about a second letter etc.

Seeing what happened with the last round of indicative votes, Lib Dems are going to vote against anything short of a referendum or revoke A50 and Jeremy Corbyn cares first and foremost about becoming Prime Minister so he'll whip his party very hard to vote against it.

Some people who voted against softer Brexit options in the indicative votes are going to have to look themselves in the mirror and ask themselves are they willing to vote this down and risk ending up with an even worse outcome in the vain hope of getting an unlikely revoke, in light of the fact that doing so last time has simply taken softer Brexits off the table whilst leaving No Deal there.

devnull · 15-10-2019 11:44PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SiCarswell/status/1184233827104935936

DUP looking for lots and lots of cash according to the FT.

They are in good position to have leverage to extort as much money as possible out of the Conservatives with the arithmetic the way it is, but they're only going to get the money if they can bring the ERG with them and it passes, which is still going to be tough.

The Tories probably see this as a way to both get the DUP votes as well as assist with getting the ERG on to back the deal. But even with the whole ERG and the whole DUP backing it they're still going to have to get a number of opposition figures to vote for it unless some abstain, which is unlikely in my book.

There's still a long way to go before this is home and hosed.

Harry Palmr · 15-10-2019 11:48PM

As ever, loyal to the Half Crown.

It feels like this is going to get dragged across the line, everyone kicking and screaming. Or holding their noses at least. Even enough Labour MPs will wearily wave this through I think.

"Leave Means Please Can We Leave Now?

"

reslfj · 15-10-2019 11:50PM

Sam Russell wrote: »

.....
For trade ex NI to GB, the UK could allow goods in tariff free. So cheddar cheese could be packaged in NI and shipped tariff free to GB, with perhaps the same for beef.

Unless there is a comprehensive FTA (or better) EU-UK, the UK will have to allow tariff free import from all WTO members, not just NI.
The proposed 'No Deal' UK import tariffs for industrial products are low or zero and important food products will get MFN tariffs in the 5% range into (UK) GB.

Very little GB farm products, I guess, will need to move into NI from GB.

I think NTB will be a a much bigger problem for smaller NI business than tariffs across the Irish Sea border.

Key tariffs for agri products are listed here.
https://ahdb.org.uk/uk-and-eu-import-tariffs-under-no-deal-brexit

Sam Russell wrote: »

Now, any goods coming from GB to NI would undergo customs and SM checks, but most such goods currently pass through Dublin Port.
....

After Brexit sealed lorries will pass from Dublin into NI and only SPS checks will be needed (as now done in Ireland or at Larne) in case of a 'No Deal', if the lorries can get permits to drive in the EU27 (here Ireland).

Lars

CelticRambler · 15-10-2019 11:52PM

It's 45 minutes past midnight, CET. Should I stay up and wait to watch the EU blinking at the last minute, live on Sky, or should I just go to bed and trust that ye won't have added 15 pages to this thread by the time I wake up ...? :pac:

While making my mind up, I'm puzzled by the view expressed above that this rumoured deal, i.e. May's deal v.0.0.1 is worse than May's deals v.1.0, v.1.1 & v.1.2. I thought that, at the time the DUP went berserk following Tony Connolly's precipitous report, we were all agreed that it was a "best we/they can hope for" deal?

Within the context of the sheer stupidity that is Brexit, obviously.

Mr.Nice Guy · 16-10-2019 12:26AM

If it's a deal where NI remains inside the UK Customs Union the DUP might be able to sell that. Will be interesting to see what happens on Wednesday.

jimmycrackcorm · 16-10-2019 01:53AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Between Cash for Ash, TM's billion and now this, the DUP will be well stocked with funds. No doubt they will use them for the benefit and prosperity of all of NI and its people.

If the EU are too provide funding, then I
think we should be demanding the A5 upgrade between Derry and Monaghan, and the Catholic extension of the M2 motorway completed to Derry as part of that.

A bitter sweet taste of funding.

jimmycrackcorm · 16-10-2019 02:25AM

Water John wrote: »

Their core instinct is always, NO. They, despite the two meeting in Downing St may baulk. I think Johnson is so desperate to bring back a Deal, he can always take it into a GE.
He'll bank on the people wanting the issue finished with.

The beauty of it is that the cornerstone now will be the sea border. So even if there is an extension because of parliment arithmetic, this will be the deal agreed o it'sr no deal and we already know, no deal will never get accepted.

fash · 16-10-2019 04:19AM

blackcard wrote: »

I have always believed that it would have been better for everyone if brexit had been defeated. I have no time whatsoever for the DUP. However, I have tried to look at the proposal from their viewpoint. They do not want customs between 1 part of the UK and another part.

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

I would certainly be unhappy if I were a unionist- however, those who campaigned for brexit while knowing the risks to the careful ambiguity of the GFA and those who pushed for a hard brexit which intentionally brought about a border against that careful ambiguity specifically to destroy the GFA have zero right to complain. Their voters should blame them.

gimli2112 · 16-10-2019 06:49AM

BBC shockingly bad questioning the Lib Dem leader. Trying to argue people did know what they were voting for 3 years ago and the deal is not even agreed, then saying polls show, people knew what they were voting for, I'm sure some did but not all 1.7M of them and finally calling her a hypocrite for ignoring the original vote, which she already said there was a problem with because people didn't know what they were voting for.

Really this has to end one way or the other. I can only imagine the damage that has, is and will be done.

robinph · 16-10-2019 07:28AM

gimli2112 wrote: »

BBC shockingly bad questioning the Lib Dem leader. Trying to argue people did know what they were voting for 3 years ago and the deal is not even agreed, then saying polls show, people knew what they were voting for, I'm sure some did but not all 1.7M of them and finally calling her a hypocrite for ignoring the original vote, which she already said there was a problem with because people didn't know what they were voting for.

Really this has to end one way or the other. I can only imagine the damage that has, is and will be done.

Absolutely no one voting for leave knew what it was. Not even the architect of the madness Cummings knew what he was voting for as he had no idea what Cameron then May and parliament itself would do to bring us to this point.

Peregrinus · 16-10-2019 07:33AM

robinph wrote: »

Absolutely no one voting for leave knew what it was. Not even the architect of the madness Cummings knew what he was voting for as he had no idea what Cameron then May and parliament itself would do to bring us to this point.

All those people who knew exactly what they voted for three-and-a-half years ago are, right now, eagerly waiting for Boris Johnson to reveal to them exactly what it was that they voted for three-and-a-half years ago.

murphaph · 16-10-2019 07:46AM

fash wrote: »

I would certainly be unhappy if I were a unionist- however, those who campaigned for brexit while knowing the risks to the careful ambiguity of the GFA and those who pushed for a hard brexit which intentionally brought about a border against that careful ambiguity specifically to destroy the GFA have zero right to complain. Their voters should blame them.

Yep. I would have zero sympathy for unionists (in NI and indeed Scotland) in all this. The vote was very close. Unionist Brexit voters in NI and Scotland easily made up the ca. 600k people that would have needed to vote remain instead of leave to swing it the other way.

I still don't see the numbers in the HoC for this hard Brexit for GB. It's much harder than May's deal and that was rejected by Labour because it was too hard for them.

I personally would be happy enough with this deal as there remains an open border in Ireland and GB can go off on its merry way and the EU can move on to the other major issues facing us.

Joe_ Public · 16-10-2019 08:03AM

gimli2112 wrote: »

BBC shockingly bad questioning the Lib Dem leader. Trying to argue people did know what they were voting for 3 years ago and the deal is not even agreed, then saying polls show, people knew what they were voting for, I'm sure some did but not all 1.7M of them and finally calling her a hypocrite for ignoring the original vote, which she already said there was a problem with because people didn't know what they were voting for.

Really this has to end one way or the other. I can only imagine the damage that has, is and will be done.

Heard her on radio 4 and it was indeed a very bad interview. She deserves some hard questions, as they all do, but some of those flung at her were silly and wide of the mark.

The reality is this, though. Jo Swinson is infinitely more likely to lose her own seat than for her party to win GE so this notion of them getting a mandate to cancel brexit is fantasy realm stuff. If anything a vote for LD would decrease the chance of a second referendum, not enhance it.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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