Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

L1011 · 15-10-2019 7:11pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

I doubted that all of the ERG would throw them under the bus, which was what you predicted. And I'd still be doubtful about it. Let's see if that happens.

I didn't say all. Neither did you, actually.

What I said was that the ERG were using the DUP when it suited them and as that had stopped, they wouldn't be keeping their "word". Which is what it appears is happening now.

VinLieger · 15-10-2019 7:12pm

Francois looked pretty angry after leaving his downing street meeting, if it had been a good one you know he would have been singing from the rooftops, his refusal to say anything speaks volumes and suggests cummings has a leash on him

Joe_ Public · 15-10-2019 7:15pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Does anyone give any credence to the theory that Johnson has no intention of honoring the deal and he's willing to do anything to get around the Benn Act? The theory goes that Johnson gets a deal, any deal and it get approved by the HoC as such the Benn Act has been satisfied. He then basically does nothing to enact the laws required for the deal to enter force until the 31st and the UK just crashes out.

Yeah, that scenario been floating around a bit and no reason imo not to give it some credence. Which is why MPs have to try to ensure he sticks to the letter of the law of the Benn Act and seek that extension on the 19th, even if it's just to get more time to enact any deal legislation. That point has to be hammered home all this week.

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 7:19pm

L1011 wrote: »

I didn't say all. Neither did you, actually.

What I said was that the ERG were using the DUP when it suited them and as that had stopped, they wouldn't be keeping their "word". Which is what it appears is happening now.

I said 'en masse' if you recall. And I also said no one would cheer louder than me if they were to be ditched, but I'll believe it when I see it.

Beechwoodspark · 15-10-2019 7:24pm

I just do not trust BJ. Never have never will. There’s some strategy going on behind this whole negotiation.

Tea Shock · 15-10-2019 7:30pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah, that scenario been floating around a bit and no reason imo not to give it some credence. Which is why MPs have to try to ensure he sticks to the letter of the law of the Benn Act and seek that extension on the 19th, even if it's just to get more time to enact any deal legislation. That point has to be hammered home all this week.

In the past, and more than once, JRM for example, when questioned on why he supported the WA on the 3rd vote, admitted, in fact boasted, that he thought the UK could just tear up the WA once they were out! This is what the EU are dealing with here. The passing of a deal is all that is required to render the Benn Act obsolete. There are surely ways in which they can get to October 31st without passing all the legislation that has to go with it. If the opposition are not going to vote for WA IV, then they won’t vote for the legislative changes that give effect to it either. And nor does the Government have to

They can’t be trusted

Strazdas · 15-10-2019 7:30pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Francois looked pretty angry after leaving his downing street meeting, if it had been a good one you know he would have been singing from the rooftops, his refusal to say anything speaks volumes and suggests cummings has a leash on him

Though apparently Cummings and the ERG can't stand each other.

J Mysterio · 15-10-2019 7:32pm

gooch2k9 wrote: »

Where did the Brexit hard man title come from? It's brilliant, himself and Barclay. Two hard men.

He's called himself that as far as I know and still refers to himself as that. I remember it first from this interview, I happened to be watching it live:

Joe_ Public · 15-10-2019 7:37pm

Tea Shock wrote: »

In the past, and more than once, JRM for example, when questioned on why he supported the WA on the 3rd vote, admitted, in fact boasted, that he thought the UK could just tear up the WA once they were out! This is what the EU are dealing with here. The passing of a deal is all that is required to render the Benn Act obsolete. There are surely ways in which they can get to October 31st without passing all the legislation that has to go with it. If the opposition are not going to vote for WA IV, then they won’t vote for the legislative changes that give effect to it either. And nor does the Government have to

They can’t be trusted

I understand that. But the opposition parties and mps are not stupid and need to stick together and prevent this happening. This stupid we won't back Corbyn to be interim leader needs to be dropped for a start.

54and56 · 15-10-2019 7:38pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

The fact that one knows exactly what hes going to say shows just how useless and predetermined his "whispers" are.

In his defense, he is extremely polite, has a quick wit and a great speakig voice. But the buzz words like treaty and surrender are pure propaganda, and its hard to see how he intends anything other than rabble rousing.

So is there any point listening to him?

I find it entertaining how it's basically a Brexit Party political broadcast or recruitment broadcast for an hour each evening. His shows basically break down into three types:-

1. He gets on another Brexiteer guest and they echo chamber away to themselves.

2. He gets a Leave voting caller on who he feeds a few softballs to in order to stoke them up and will often finish the call by asking "you sound angry xxx, why are you angry?" and then agree with why the person is angry which is usually something to to with EU tyranny or Tory sell outs.

3. The odd remainer slips through the call filtering process who trys to pin him down on things he has said in the past like the Norway deal being great or immediately wanting to campaign for e 2nd referendum when he initially thought Leave had lost the referendum but he swats them away fairly quickly by saying he's heard all these conspiracy theories and lies before and if they don't have anything new to say he has to move on.

It's rinse and repeat every night but I do find it entertaining if I'm stuck in traffic

J Mysterio · 15-10-2019 7:40pm

Foster seems to be really rattled here...

Has also completed changed tack? Now she is saying there needs to be consent of a majority of both Nationalists and Unionists?

She thought she had 'won' a Unionist veto just last week.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1184170998771388416

Kermit.de.frog · 15-10-2019 7:41pm

There can't be a unionist veto. Both UK and EU accepted this a week a go.

Spanish Eyes · 15-10-2019 7:46pm

The DUP will be offered immunity from the Cash for Ash + another billion hush money. Wait for it.

And then there will be a border in the Irish Sea or whatever else they object to now.

I do realise there are more forces at play in this drama, but the DUP is one of the cast.

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2019 7:49pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The DUP will be offered immunity from the Cash for Ash + another billion hush money. Wait for it.

And then there will be a border in the Irish Sea or whatever else they object to now.

I do realise there are more forces at play in this drama, but the DUP is one of the cast.

Other than embarrassment do they not have immunity effectively anyhow?

lawred2 · 15-10-2019 7:50pm

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There can't be a unionist veto. Both UK and EU accepted this a week a go.

Odd way of phrasing that... It wasn't ever anything the EU needed to come around to 'accepting'... It was a non runner from the off for the EU..

A Shropshire Lad · 15-10-2019 8:06pm

I would be wary of any deal that both ERG and the DUP are happy with

J Mysterio · 15-10-2019 8:09pm

Shockwaves from this

https://twitter.com/NewtonEmerson/status/1184183886722584582

Spanish Eyes · 15-10-2019 8:11pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Other than embarrassment do they not have immunity effectively anyhow?

How come? Their voting support maybe or is it something else.

boggerman1 · 15-10-2019 8:13pm

If this is true isn't great to see the bible thumping dup being sold down the river,steamrolled under Johnson's bus etc.as bad as big Ian was he saw the light.not Arlene though

Professor Moriarty · 15-10-2019 8:15pm

A Shropshire Lad wrote: »

I would be wary of any deal that both ERG and the DUP are happy with

Exactly. If they accept this without a murmur, there is some devious trick that Johnson feels he can pull later.

Dont be at yourself · 15-10-2019 8:17pm

Could Johnson get a deal passed the HoC, thus negating the Benn act, on the assurance that Arlene and the DUP will torpedo it in Stormont, bringing about a no-deal Brexit as desired?

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 8:18pm

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

I just do not trust BJ. Never have never will. There’s some strategy going on behind this whole negotiation.

I don't know if there is a plan, all I know is if somehow Johnson comes out of this reasonably well it will be by luck more than planning and that Cummings will be hailed a genius. Seems that the plan could be to send the two letters, even if this has been disputed many times already.

https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1184112360426037248?s=20

I guess they are saying this to get MPs to vote for the deal, if not he has to resign or ask for an extension, which he said he would not do. He is still trapped, trying to use the May deal to get out of breaking another promise that got him elected and that will get him his majority to take 5 years off after the 31st October in a new GE. I struggle to think why they think they could send 2 letters and not get dragged back to court.

As the same time, why would Labour vote for his deal when there will be an extension and time to sort this out instead of the 31st October deadline?

J Mysterio wrote: »

Shockwaves from this

https://twitter.com/NewtonEmerson/status/1184183886722584582

Its staggering that it has come to this. A worse deal for the UK than May is being seen as the best deal. Let's take a moment to think about what type of person thinks that the previous deal wasn't good enough but a worse deal is the one to go for when you have been saying there is better out there.

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 8:21pm

Dont be at yourself wrote: »

Could Johnson get a deal passed the HoC, thus negating the Benn act, on the assurance that Arlene and the DUP will torpedo it in Stormont, bringing about a no-deal Brexit as desired?

It would need to take some convincing for MPs that voted against May's deal to vote for his deal if it is a worse deal. I can see it happening but like all the previous deals once the wording is out there and has been looked at and scrutinized you can bet that if the deal is worse it will be amplified.

As for the opposition, there will be an extension so they don't need to vote for it as the threat of no-deal is off the table for now. The only way no-deal is back is if they vote for the deal and time runs out before legislation is passed and they leave without a deal automatically.

So ironically if they vote for the deal they could be voting for no-deal. That may be why the ERG is happy to go with this deal.

Water John · 15-10-2019 8:22pm

Just tells how pathetic those Brexiteers actually are. They are now sweating from fear they get to stay in the EU.
Johnson has possibly struck lucky because the constant losing votes in the HOC showed them how vulnerable their position was.

hometruths · 15-10-2019 8:47pm

Enzokk wrote: »

I don't know if there is a plan, all I know is if somehow Johnson comes out of this reasonably well it will be by luck more than planning and that Cummings will be hailed a genius. Seems that the plan could be to send the two letters, even if this has been disputed many times already.

I think this was the plan all along, run the clock down to the last minute, see what if anything he could extract from the EU, knowing he could agree the border in the Irish sea at the 11th hour, force the HoC to pass it knowing it is this deal or No Deal.

It has been a bit scuppered though by the Benn Act, which is why I think he will be trying to get EU to say "The only reason we will grant an extension is if you pass this deal pre 31st"

SeaBreezes · 15-10-2019 8:49pm

J Mysterio wrote: »

Foster seems to be really rattled here...

Has also completed changed tack? Now she is saying there needs to be consent of a majority of both Nationalists and Unionists?

She thought she had 'won' a Unionist veto just last week.

https://twitter.com/DarranMarshall/status/1184170998771388416

Ha ha both Tories and the DUP are running scared of any referendum. They know full well the majority of people would vote revoke at this stage. Now they've been properly informed...

God forbid the actual people get a say on how they want to proceed now...

am i bovvered · 15-10-2019 8:50pm

This thread has been a fantastic source of balanced information, a credit to the posters and shows just how good ‘boards.ie’ can be.
However a 25 minute gap between posts is totally unacceptable !!!
Please note ... I require constant updates at this critical time.
x

Spanish Eyes · 15-10-2019 8:50pm

Whenever I try to see both sides of the issue, all I can see is Mark Francois.

And there are many others too. Honestly what the F are they smoking? There must be something in it for them. What is it?

blackcard · 15-10-2019 8:55pm

I have always believed that it would have been better for everyone if brexit had been defeated. I have no time whatsoever for the DUP. However, I have tried to look at the proposal from their viewpoint. They do not want customs between 1 part of the UK and another part.

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

Kermit.de.frog · 15-10-2019 9:00pm

FT reporting another bribe on offer for the DUP

FT: UK and EU locked in race to broker Brexit deal “PM spent the eleventh hour haggling with Arlene Foster, leader of Northern Ireland’s DUP, over a big cash payment for the region to help secure her support for the deal taking shape in Brussels”

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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