Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

davedanon · 15-10-2019 09:05PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Anyone who voted for Brexit has to live with the consequences of that vote. All the problematic facts were there to be seen by anyone who wasn't blinded by their own ideology. It's too late to have reservations after you've gambled everything on something that could never work.

NI didn't vote for Brexit.

Professor Moriarty · 15-10-2019 09:06PM

davedanon wrote: »

These are contiguous geographical areas. NI, leaving aside anything else, is physically part of our island, but politically connected to another. No comparison in my book. And the DUP isn't all of NI. People seem to forget this. They don't speak for anyone but themselves.

They speak for 30% of NI's population.

blackcard · 15-10-2019 09:09PM

schmittel wrote: »

I get what you're saying. But to extend the analogy imagine all Ireland was part of a very successful trading bloc and single market, and narrowly voted to leave it, the votes being made up of a majority leave in Ireland A, though a majority remain in Ireland B.

In that scenario if I was a resident in Ireland B and somebody offered the solution to trade freely with Ireland A and benefit from the easiest trade deals in history they were going to make and retain free market access to the trading bloc I would bite their hand off.

I might even think I had the best of both worlds. I certainly don't think I'd feel any less Irish. In fact I'd feel a bit sorry for Ireland A.

Well most of them. Probably not Cork though. I would suspect they skewed the leave vote.

Cork, the Rebel County. Because they wanted a different King of England to rule Ireland

15-10-2019 09:10PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The 'billion' wasn't for them.
Has it even been handed over yet?

Not sure, but this is from the Telegraph June 2017...

A £1 billion deal has been done between the Conservatives and Democratic Unionist Party to prop up Theresa May's minority Government.

Arlene Foster, the leader of the DUP, and Mrs May agreed the deal which will see the extra funding provided to Northern Ireland over the next two years during talks at Downing Street on Monday morning.

It actually was for all of NI, my apologies.

Water John · 15-10-2019 09:14PM

Yes, that tallies with 50% paid.
Johnson either gets this through HOC or takes it into an election.
Corbyn will say if that's the Deal or his new Deal (soft Brexit) will be put in a Ref along with Withdraw Art 50.
Swinson says forget deals and withdraw Art 50.
That's the GE line up.

Sam Russell · 15-10-2019 09:17PM

blackcard wrote: »

I have always believed that it would have been better for everyone if brexit had been defeated. I have no time whatsoever for the DUP. However, I have tried to look at the proposal from their viewpoint. They do not want customs between 1 part of the UK and another part.

Imagine drawing a line from Dublin and Galway and putting customs along this line. Call south of this line Ireland A and north of this line Ireland B. If you wanted to export something from Ireland A to Ireland B, you would have to pay a tariff. This could be claimed back if you could prove that the final destination of goods was Ireland B.
Similarly if you wanted to export something from Ireland B to Ireland A, you would have to pay a tariff which could be refunded if you could prove that the origin of the goods was Ireland B.
As someone who lives in Ireland, I would be totally against such an arrangement so, in a way, I can understand unionists having reservations.

I think that misrepresents what is being suggested.

For trade between N and S in say milk, there needs to be compliance as to standards and customs. (SM and CU) otherwise the milk lorry does not collect any milk north of the border, so milk goes down the drain. With SM compliance, the lorry collects the milk, but a tariff of 24p a litre, so milk goes down the drain. So to save the agri business, the CU and SM is needed.

For trade ex NI to GB, the UK could allow goods in tariff free. So cheddar cheese could be packaged in NI and shipped tariff free to GB, with perhaps the same for beef.

Now, any goods coming from GB to NI would undergo customs and SM checks, but most such goods currently pass through Dublin Port.

Now which is more damaging to NI? I think the agri business cannot survive without the Irish Sea border but everything else can.

SeaBreezes · 15-10-2019 09:33PM

schmittel wrote: »

Well most of them. Probably not Cork though. I would suspect they skewed the leave vote.

The people's republic of cork. Just sayin'. We are watching closely and taking notes on 'reclaiming sovereignty' :-) :-) :-)

boggerman1 · 15-10-2019 09:35PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Whenever I try to see both sides of the issue, all I can see is Mark Francois.

And there are many others too. Honestly what the F are they smoking? There must be something in it for them. What is it?

Money.lots of money

gooch2k9 · 15-10-2019 09:43PM

Everyone is wise to what Arlene Foster is asking for when she says Stormont must have a say yet she continues to push this idea. There is no sense to try and compromise to reach an agreement, it's all or nothing and I'll be glad to see them get their just rewards for taking that stance.

Leroy42 · 15-10-2019 09:49PM

I just saw the clip of Mark Francois leaving the meeting with the PM.

He did not look very happy. He tried to avoid giving any comment, but such is his inability, he said that talks will continue.

The journalist jumped on it straight away to say that obviously he didn't like what he had heard!

If the whole business wasn't so serious it would be really funny

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 10:00PM

Three tweet summing up the situation as it seems right now,

https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/1184131333104263170?s=20

https://twitter.com/jamesrbuk/status/1184154110054096897?s=20

So these two tweets just comment on the leaks that the deal seems to be a NI only backstop and that this was offered as a solution in February 2018 by the EU and it actually the EU opening offer to the UK. This is some Donald Trump level of negotiations going on from the UK, rejecting their hard won compromises to go for the EU opening offer.

https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1184194022132404225?s=20

And if you think that Johnson could not be so naive to take a deal this bad, well this tweet just reminds us that Johnson negotiated the Olympic Stadium deal to West Ham, where the government decided not to make the design easy to convert for a football stadium after use at the olympics in 2012, then paid to convert it to a football stadium, extra cost because they didn't design it this way from the start, and is charging only £2.5m per year in rent for a stadium that cost almost £750m to build and then convert.

Joe_ Public · 15-10-2019 10:01PM

Ludicrous beyond the extreme. All the nonsense over the past 3 years just to go back to a position they outrightly rejected over 2 years ago. I can't be convinced they're serious about it.

quokula · 15-10-2019 10:13PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Ludicrous beyond the extreme. All the nonsense over the past 3 years just to go back to a position they outrightly rejected over 2 years ago. I can't be convinced they're serious about it.

That doesn’t matter though, as long as the Sun and the Express can convince their readers this is a triumphant new deal. This has only ever been about winning votes for the Tory party, never about the details of what the deal actually achieves.

Shelga · 15-10-2019 10:24PM

Why did the DUP reject the UK-wide backstop proposal? Either they trust their Tory masters or they don’t.

If they’re saying they didn’t trust them to keep the backstop UK-wide, doesn’t that undermine their whole ideology?

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:29PM

Heads up Newsnight starting shortly

Sierra Oscar · 15-10-2019 10:34PM

Text currently being prepared according to Pat Leahy.

https://twitter.com/PatLeahyIT/status/1184220349594062855

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 10:38PM

On Newsnight it was said that Owen Paterson is strongly against a customs border in the sea, so it seems not all the ERG will be at odds with the DUP. Question is whether or not he's a marginal voice within the group on this.

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2019 10:41PM

So presuming a deal is done...does anyone know when it gets to the HoC for a vote etc?

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:41PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

On Newsnight it was said that Owen Paterson is strongly against a customs border in the sea, so it seems not all the ERG will be at odds with the DUP. Question is whether or not he's a marginal voice within the group on this.

There’s nutters in the ERG who would be against any Deal. Some of them would just enjoy the world burning

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:42PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

So presuming a deal is done...does anyone know when it gets to the HoC for a vote etc?

This Saturday coming

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 10:42PM

Seems like the ERG are split:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184217191631249408

Brexit eats everyone.

Sierra Oscar · 15-10-2019 10:43PM

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Seems like the ERG are split:

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1184217191631249408

Brexit eats everyone.

If ERG is split Johnson will probably be able to get it through with the help of Labour rebels. I reckon ERG needs to by and large hold itself together to be able to block it.

FrancieBrady · 15-10-2019 10:48PM

Headshot wrote: »

This Saturday coming

Big day. All blacks and Brexit or ABexit and Brexit

LeinsterDub · 15-10-2019 10:48PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If ERG is split Johnson will probably be able to get it through with the help of Labour rebels. I reckon ERG needs to by and large hold itself together to be able to block it.

How many Labour rebels do you think there are? Each ERG rebel cancels out a Labour rebel, plus the DUP votes have to be covered. I honestly can't see 40 or 50 Labour rebels

Mr.Nice Guy · 15-10-2019 10:48PM

It's looking very tight on the arithmetic. If the DUP come out with a strong condemnation, coupled with the Brexit Party doing similar, I could see ERG members that are on the fence being spooked and moving towards rejection.

Headshot · 15-10-2019 10:49PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Big day. All blacks and Brexit or ABexit and Brexit

I'm going to be in do not disturb mode and stuck to the TV

With the popcorn ready to go

LeinsterDub · 15-10-2019 10:50PM

https://twitter.com/SebastianEPayne/status/1184220192349532161

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1184217477196242944

This is one way to beat the Brexit party. Become the Brexit party!

Leroy42 · 15-10-2019 10:56PM

But its really this deal or massive extension and possible revoke.

No deal is not an option. So the likes of IDS etc have a big decision to make.

And of course, whilst they may feel the deal is not ideal, it comes down to beating back the BP at the next election.

And they will convince themselves and everyone else, that it's only temporary until they get the FTA and with it freedom

lawred2 · 15-10-2019 10:56PM

How many more Tories can the Tory party boot out before they have less parliamentary members than that labour party?

Enzokk · 15-10-2019 10:57PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

If ERG is split Johnson will probably be able to get it through with the help of Labour rebels. I reckon ERG needs to by and large hold itself together to be able to block it.

There were 5 Labour rebels last time. This deal will not be better for Labour to accept it, so how many more can they expect? I doubt they will get more than the 5 that voted for the previous deal, with it being at best the same deal or even worse than the deal they rejected last time. An extension isn't ruling out Brexit.

Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

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