Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

ZeroThreat

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Mod: No more jokes and one-liners please.

My question about there not being a kindle version of 'Burned' wasn't intended as a pun in case people though I was being flippant btw.

farmchoice

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It could be tight. Just looknig at the numbers:

Tories including inds who lost the whip: 310

Lab, Lib Dem, Pl Cyn, SNP, Ind Group, Green: 310

So you can work out how many tories might go against it and how many of the opposition might go for it. Thats all a bit uncertain. If you were to add the DUP to those against, it makes a deal passing all the harder. As well as that, you have 13 independents left who could go anyway. It would be close enough but i'm not at all certain he can do it without the DUP.

Edit: just to say there's no way labour can back it. There are some issues for them in opposing a deal, but thats the thin end of the wedge. Under no circumstances can they support it, for a whole host of reasons.

there is absolutely no way he can do it without the DUP and what will happen then is just like with Mays deal the ERG will know this an will vote against it as well to remain ideologically pure.
with the DUP and ergo with the ERG on board he has a slim chance. there are about half the tory rebels who will definitely come back into the fold if a deal is on the table but there are probably at least 6 who will never vote for it most of whom are not running again any way so have nothing to lose.
then there is 1 lib dem who will vote for it and about 4 labour mp's who will almost certainly vote for it.

so its then down to a handful of tory rebels and a handfull of possible wavering labour rebels.
the right wing commentators talk about 12-18 possible labour rebels but this is IMO wishful thinking, there has been no sign of them so far.
i think a lot of the tory rebels will only come back into the fold if there is a guaranteed confirmatory ref, that how i think it will end up.

ancapailldorcha

ZeroThreat wrote: »

My question about there not being a kindle version of 'Burned' wasn't intended as a pun in case people though I was being flippant btw.

Fair enough. There is just the physical copy for sale unfortunately.

gooch2k9

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Fair enough. There is just the physical copy for sale unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/craicpype/status/1164196446096244738

It will be on Kindle chaps. He's replied to that tweet with a "Yes.", I just don't know how to show two tweets. Next week he said in another tweet I saw from him earlier.

Joe_ Public

farmchoice wrote: »

there is absolutely no way he can do it without the DUP and what will happen then is just like with Mays deal the ERG will know this an will vote against it as well to remain ideologically pure.
with the DUP and ergo with the ERG on board he has a slim chance. there are about half the tory rebels who will definitely come back into the fold if a deal is on the table but there are probably at least 6 who will never vote for it most of whom are not running again any way so have nothing to lose.
then there is 1 lib dem who will vote for it and about 4 labour mp's who will almost certainly vote for it.

so its then down to a handful of tory rebels and a handfull of possible wavering labour rebels.
the right wing commentators talk about 12-18 possible labour rebels but this is IMO wishful thinking, there has been no sign of them so far.
i think a lot of the tory rebels will only come back into the fold if there is a guaranteed confirmatory ref, that how i think it will end up.

I agree broadly with most of that, though i wouldnt approach any vote with any great deal of conviction all the same. I do think most of the tory rebels will back a deal (why wouldnt they?) but would be doubtful about the labour rebels because there will be a huge amount of pressure on them not to defy the whip. Some still might, but not sure it will be all that many. I would definitely bet against any such deal being passed and still think that is how Johnson and a fair proportion of his party want it.

murphaph

Champagne Sally wrote: »

If this is indeed true about a customs border down the Irish sea, what are the numbers do people here think for that deal in HoC, do you think he has the numbers to get this passed?

It surely fails Labour's 6 tests business. Might get half a dozen Labour rebels. Lib Dems, Plaid and Scots Nats will all vote against. Johnson needs the DUP and ERG and the Independent Conservatives. Looks impossible to me but what do I know.

gooch2k9

murphaph wrote: »

It surely fails Labour's 6 tests business. Might get half a dozen Labour rebels. Lib Dems, Plaid and Scots Nats will all vote against. Johnson needs the DUP and ERG and the Independent Conservatives. Looks impossible to me but what do I know.

Huffington Post quoting DUP saying they'll vote against if Boris makes more concessions. Now that has to be interpreted from where their impression of the offer is. Is that a customs border in the Irish Sea but no more, or ruling out even that concession? As someone living in NI I'd love to have competent politicians running the show here, this is a golden opportunity for the place.

54and56

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I still have trouble believing that Johnson wants to pass a deal with a NI only backstop, but let's just say we do get to position he brings such a deal back to the house, you're correct to speculate what kind of manoeuvrings might come with it. We simply dont know. The Benn bill does specify it must be passed by the house by the 19th, so how that holds up we'll have to see.

This is where the true dark art of back room politics will be played out.

BoJo's henchmen (Cummings I assume) will have a very clear message to the ERG along the lines of "it's Brexit with a border down the Irish Sea by Oct 31st or we have to follow the Benn Act and ask for an extension which risks a Labour Govt negotiating the softest of soft Brexits and worse still putting it Vs Remain in a confirmatory referendum. It's decision time boys, do you want a Brexit which gives you 90% of what you are looking for but we have to allow special terms for NI due to the blasted GFA until we get them out properly via the world class FTA we're going to negotiate with the EU or do you want potentially no Brexit at all?

It's time to hold your nose and get behind BoJo lads as you may not get another chance."

"And by the way, here's the file of dirt we have on you and if you don't fall into line who knows what will happen to it."

ToBeFrank123

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It could be tight. Just looknig at the numbers:

Tories including inds who lost the whip: 310

Lab, Lib Dem, Pl Cyn, SNP, Ind Group, Green: 310

So you can work out how many tories might go against it and how many of the opposition might go for it. Thats all a bit uncertain. If you were to add the DUP to those against, it makes a deal passing all the harder. As well as that, you have 13 independents left who could go anyway. It would be close enough but i'm not at all certain he can do it without the DUP.

Edit: just to say there's no way labour can back it. There are some issues for them in opposing a deal, but thats the thin end of the wedge. Under no circumstances can they support it, for a whole host of reasons.

If Corbyn voted for it, it would pass easily and no need to court the DUP or even listen to them. Instead we are left with the DUP holding everyone to ransom.

Possibly a General Election in the UK is the only way to remove the DUP influence over the process as at the moment they are the stumbling block because of the numbers in parliament.

Inquitus

gooch2k9 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/craicpype/status/1164196446096244738

It will be on Kindle chaps. He's replied to that tweet with a "Yes.", I just don't know how to show two tweets. Next week he said in another tweet I saw from him earlier.

He just replied on twitter, Kindle later today.

https://twitter.com/SJAMcBride/status/1184138386216554496

Water John

So 310 on each side outside of DUP.
More than 5 Lb sign up for the Deal and DUP don't matter.

We'll all be ignoring that it's probably worse than TM's Deal.

Spanish Eyes

Seems to me that whatever happens (and whilst hopeful, I'm not overly optimistic either), the the DUP were given a status way above their station.

I suppose they will be paid off one way or another. The CFA, no not GFA... the Cash for Ash thing has been booted to the cheap seats and they got a billion quid I think for cross NI funding to support T. May. Hopefully that largesse will be audited sometime, not saying they wouldn't distribute it fairly, but you know yourself.

So I reckon the quid pro quo might be dropping the CFA scheme in return for a Deal. Well if not, abortion, gay marriage, and an investigation looms. And I do realise that the Assembly is not the easiest of places to re-assemble. But we are talking about one party who think they hold all our futures in their hands.

Christian Fundamentalists, God fearing and all that, yet they are not behind the door with other things that to me, seem to be a tad dishonest WRT their beliefs.

Anyway, we shall see. I just hope there will be none of this "we won, you lost, get over it" triumphalism at all, so counter productive.

Joe_ Public

54and56 wrote: »

This is where the true dark art of back room politics will be played out.

BoJo's henchmen (Cummings I assume) will have a very clear message to the ERG along the lines of "it's Brexit with a border down the Irish Sea by Oct 31st or we have to follow the Benn Act and ask for an extension which risks a Labour Govt negotiating the softest of soft Brexits and worse still putting it Vs Remain in a confirmatory referendum. It's decision time boys, do you want a Brexit which gives you 90% of what you are looking for but we have to allow special terms for NI due to the blasted GFA until we get them out properly via the world class FTA we're going to negotiate with the EU or do you want potentially no Brexit at all?

It's time to hold your nose and get behind BoJo lads as you may not get another chance."

"And by the way, here's the file of dirt we have on you and if you don't fall into line who knows what will happen to it."

I think you've been watching too many episodes of The Thick of it
Cummings may be the evil genius, but he's no Malcolm Tucker i'd say. I think it's just as likely they could set up a deal to fail and then seek to lay all the blame on labour and other opposition politicians out of which they could get a considerable amount of mileage. Cant say i'm certain about that, but think it's just, if not more, likely.

lawred2

No functioning parliament or government should be hinging on Mark Francois assenting to anything.

Joe_ Public

Water John wrote: »

So 310 on each side outside of DUP.
More than 5 Lb sign up for the Deal and DUP don't matter.

We'll all be ignoring that it's probably worse than TM's Deal.

Assuming all the ERG stay on board which isn't at all certain. There are 13 other independent votes in the house too, how they'd vote is unclear but the majority of them were against Theresa May's deal whenever that came before the house.

Tea Shock

The French are reportedly getting antsy that things are feeling a bit too rushed and worried that the insistence of level playing field protection in environmental, social and fiscal rules may be compromised with Johnson's government not committing to it the way Teresa may's did. One apparent suggestion is that the EU could go very heavy on tariffs of UK exports if they step out of line but how to square that with GB exports to Northern Ireland if the latter are in the EU customs Union is the hurdle.

Strazdas

Tea Shock wrote: »

The French are reportedly getting antsy that things are feeling a bit too rushed and worried that the insistence of level playing field protection in environmental, social and fiscal rules may be compromised with Johnson's government not committing to it the way Teresa may's did. One apparent suggestion is that the EU could go very heavy on tariffs of UK exports if they step out of line but how to square that with GB exports to Northern Ireland if the latter are in the EU customs Union is the hurdle.

I think the pressure is nearly all on Johnson and he is the one who has to concede all over the place. The EU are fairly relaxed.

Tea Shock

ITV reporting that Steve Baker (ERG chairman) is saying the ERG are on board with the deal being discussed.

I'll eat my hat if there's a deal!
Although I'll have to buy one first!

Spanish Eyes

Strazdas wrote: »

I think the pressure is nearly all on Johnson and he is the one who has to concede all over the place. The EU are fairly relaxed.

Maybe this was Johnson's plan all along. Do his best but blame others for the reality that has to happen in order to keep UK sane and the economy running.

I don't see Brexiters on the streets yet. And there is apparently a big Remain march on Saturday when Parliament meets.

I do hope it all ends well with some intelligence and reality at the helm. But nothing is guaranteed either I suppose.

ZX7R

Boris will probably get a deal and Cummins will use his spin against the opisthion to make them pass it, Boris the hero get a great deal and taking the UK to a better future ECT ECT

FrancieBrady

Tea Shock wrote: »

ITV reporting that Steve Baker (ERG chairman) is saying the ERG are on board with the deal being discussed.

I'll eat my hat if there's a deal!
Although I'll have to buy one first!

If the UK have capitulated on the border in the Irish Sea then why wouldn't there be a 'deal'?
The EU are fine with that.

Hurrache

Tea Shock wrote: »

ITV reporting that Steve Baker (ERG chairman) is saying the ERG are on board with the deal being discussed.

Just to correct you on this, it's Brexit Hardman Steve Baker, by his own admission.

Joe_ Public

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

If Corbyn voted for it, it would pass easily and no need to court the DUP or even listen to them. Instead we are left with the DUP holding everyone to ransom.

Possibly a General Election in the UK is the only way to remove the DUP influence over the process as at the moment they are the stumbling block because of the numbers in parliament.

Labour cannot vote for that deal and it would be the end of Corbyn if he was to support it in any fashion. (Though given, as we are so often told, he's a hard brexiteer, it's a wonder he isnt out campaigning for it, but sin sceal eile as they say). The DUP isn't corbyns problem and not one he created either. Up to others to settle.

Tea Shock

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If the UK have capitulated on the border in the Irish Sea then why wouldn't there be a 'deal'?
The EU are fine with that.

That's a big if...considering any "UK capitulation" has to involve the HoC passing it!

i.e. ERG + the rest of the Tories + the sacked Tory's + the one's who voluntarily walked out + DUP (?) + the odd Labour or other rebel they may need minus those ex-tories that have since joined the prostitutes Lib Dems!

trellheim

no text available for anyone to crib about so hence everyone speculating, also that level playing field is critical.

NI + LPF and we are done but IMHO wont pass the Commons

J Mysterio

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Guardian reporting BJ has accepted has accepted a customs border in the Irish sea.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/oct/15/boris-johnson-close-to-brexit-deal-after-border-concessions

So... It's basically the May Deal. How ridiculous.

trellheim

So... It's basically the May Deal. How ridiculous.

No the May deal was the all-UK backstop . NI backstop was never voted on as the DUP got the hump over it.


so..... the fun will be in the wording.

Hurrache

trellheim wrote: »

No the May deal was the all-UK backstop . NI backstop was never voted on as the DUP got the hump over it.


so..... the fun will be in the wording.

So in fact it could be worse than the May deal without an all UK backstop, and back to what the EU originally offered before conceding.

The high horse brigade

J Mysterio wrote: »

So... It's basically the May Deal. How ridiculous.

The NI only backstop was never voted on, the DUP threw a strop and it was then changed to an all UK backstop

54and56

Farage on LBC at 18:00 (https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/nigel-farage) should be well worth a listen. He will be hearing whispers from Brussels and won't be mincing his words on how it's going to be a sell out, a reheated version of May's surrender treaty etc etc