Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

EdgeCase wrote: »

There's very little you can do about Irish-bashing Tories. They've always existed and they probably always will. They simply see us as an annoyance or they've a genuine hatred of us.

I certainly wouldn't be in any rush to bend over backwards to apologise for our defence of our economic interests or for our right to exist just because it's frustrating a few Tories.

In the long run the UK is going to have to start behaving sensibly again. This stuff can only go on so long until the markets start to become wary of political instability and impending chaos. There's been an enormous amount leeway given to the UK to come up with something sensible and I think many investors were genuinely assuming that this period of chaos was just a glitch that would resolve itself. That hasn't been the case.

What I've felt throughout this entire process is that individual human traits and behaviours can be transferred to something as big as a government, a parliament or a country. Think of Brexit in the context of a divorce between a real life couple.

There can be accusations of one trying to paint history in a different light, one seeming to be willing to scupper the necessary future relationship just because they feel bitter. There can be arguments over ongoing payments (child maintenance/alimony etc). There can be claims that one is going to be in a new relationship within weeks and that they have always been held back by their partner who was controlling and difficult (this isn't a Foil Arm and Hogg sketch I swear). And others can make claims which are similarly biased given the relationship with who their friend is within the couple.

And when the couple finally do separate, there can be lingering negativity which has no real benefit for either party yet is persisted with.

It could be argued that the groups mentioned above (government/parliament /country) even though they are by nature a group made up of individuals can still take on personality traits which are as identifiable as if they were held by just one person.

This is obviously because of dominant personalities within each group (or the media influencing public opinion) but I think it is naive to think that the UK is going to decide it needs to start behaving sensibly as a matter of fact.

If for no other reason than the definition of 'sensible' in this context is very subjective.

EdgeCase wrote: »

We had no particular reason to look elsewhere. Who knew that the UK would unilaterally destroy its largest and deepest trade agreement.

Irish and international retail in Ireland will react to a changed supply situation. Luckily we have a lot of very viable alternatives. The situation in Ireland isn't as complex as the UK as we have all of our market access, except for the UK entirely unchanged.

We aren't leaving, the UK is. So other than UK trade we face a temporary logistical issue. In the near medium term that'll be overcome. Business is there to be done and markets are open.

It's kind of ironic but Brexit might actually do for Ireland what Brexiteers promise it will do for the UK. Ireland might really benefit from increased trade with markets further away, but in continental Europe! Most firms will have been quite happy with the large UK market on their doorstep and it will be a challenge to tap into the massive market beyond that but many firms have done it and there are huge (real) benefits to be had. Ireland is in a good position here. We are an English speaking country so we easily attract the language skills we need to export to continental Europe. It would be much more difficult for say Poland to attract Italians, Spanish, French etc. staff to live in Poland and handle their key accounts in those foreign countries.

EdgeCase wrote: »

This is seriously mitigated by a government decision a year or so ago to join Beneluxa, a group formed by the Benelux countries and Austria to pool their buying power and cooperate on drugs and medicines supply.

See details below:

http://www.beneluxa.org

It's both Brexit proofing and more importantly it's reducing the cost of drugs to the HSE.

We're fully part of it since June 2018.

Good. My stat came from a doctor who was being interviewed on Newstalk two weeks ago about the impact of Brexit on health services in Ireland.

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think this is a great opportunity for local producers to cover more of the Irish market. We have the rainfall, we have the space, we just need to be more innovative. We have been a net importer of food since 2000. This has to change. What's stopping us from growing our own wheat and manufacturing our own breakfast cereals?

http://www.yourarticlelibrary.com/essay/suitable-conditions-required-for-wheat-cultivation-5-conditions/25489


"The weather should be warm and moist during the early stage of growth and sunny and dry in the later stages."


http://agropedia.iitk.ac.in/content/climatic-requirement-wheat-temperature

" optimum 20-25 "

The Tories displaying their vindictiveness

https://mobile.twitter.com/thecommongreen/status/1071068298505277440

RobMc59 wrote: »

What may the consequences of a hard brexit mean to Guinness which is owned by diagio?

The ownership is irrelevant except for a few select industries such as airlines. As for the effect for Guinness, who knows I'm sure they've investigated their supply chain. At a very high level they would have major concerns over any elements of their supply chain that relies on the UK.

murphaph wrote: »

It's kind of ironic but Brexit might actually do for Ireland what Brexiteers promise it will do for the UK. Ireland might really benefit from increased trade with markets further away, but in continental Europe! Most firms will have been quite happy with the large UK market on their doorstep and it will be a challenge to tap into the massive market beyond that but many firms have done it and there are huge (real) benefits to be had. Ireland is in a good position here. We are an English speaking country so we easily attract the language skills we need to export to continental Europe. It would be much more difficult for say Poland to attract Italians, Spanish, French etc. staff to live in Poland and handle their key accounts in those foreign countries.

What would be especially good if Irish firms diversified away from the UK, but in the end most of the UK trade remained as well.
As for language skills there are now quite a few Irish schooled people who have one or both parents from these countries and a good knowledge of their ways and their language.

The Mapping Exercise from the DExEU has been published. Here is a few tweets from Tony Connelly,

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1071116889542287360

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1071116893321338880

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1071116898329337856

https://twitter.com/tconnellyRTE/status/1071116902402011138

Here is the link to the RTE article on it:

Document on North-South cooperation published by UK govt

You can't generalise about that. Huge variation depending on the product. A lot depends on what if any duties are imposed but things of exclusively UK origin or with high intellectual or labour content could be cheaper because of currency movements, whereas goods with content imported into the UK would be less affected.

Its way to early to even speculate about that. Other factors - non-tariff barriers, customs checks or changes to transport will have a huge effect and we don't know what they will be.

funkey_monkey wrote: »

https://www-thejournal-ie.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.thejournal.ie/brexit-threat-food-shortages-ireland-4381228-Dec2018/?amp=1&amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQHCAFYAYABAQ==#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s

Ireland is the most stable country in the world in terms of being able to provide food for its population.
So, they are prepared to cause another famine to get Brexit!
Words fail me.

Even if Patel wasn't specifically talking about food shortages (it's not entirely clear), her general tone was pretty hostile and aggressive towards a neighbouring country and ally.

Seems to me that many in the UK with a stake in Brexit become too absorbed with the politics of Brexit: the machinations of Westminister and the personalities involved.

That's the main show in many ways: 'who will be the next PM?' is almost as interesting as 'will there be a deal or no deal? or the second question is only interesting insofar as how it impacts the first. 'What will come of Boris?' Very important (though I did enjoy him 'giving way' in Parliament).

It's like there are too many distractions and tangents and the big picture is lost and thus the outcome/ result is not then properly managed. The UK is in an existential crisis and the situation is not always treated with the seriousness the occasion calls for. Too much grandstanding, politicking and twattery.

What's the story with post-Brexit travel? Will British citizens be able to enjoy weekend getaways to Spain just as easily as they do now under the terms of May's deal?

It appears Collins was close to a bilateral Border agreement with Craig, which would have made current discussions significantly different:

http://twitter.com/dramdarcy/status/1070625492993220609

Sam Russell wrote: »

The future for Guinness looks black I'm afraid.

All Guinness is now brewed in Dublin (except for Nigerian Guinness, and possibly other small breweries), so there will be no shortage in the foreseeable future.

The nitrogen used for draught Guinness might be a problem, but no doubt there will be a solution.

nitrogen makes 78% of the air we breath. I think Guinness could build a few freezers in Dublin and extract plenty of it from the air if they needed to