Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Frank Bullitt · 28-11-2018 8:15pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

A true Brexiteer will sink to any depth.

Its a tad ironic that Mr Mogg calls someone "second rate" when he himself is a backbencher.

Folkstonian · 28-11-2018 8:19pm

Gintonious wrote: »

Its a tad ironic that Mr Mogg calls someone "second rate" when he himself is a backbencher.

When politicians of the calibre of Dianne Abbott, Amber Rudd, and Theresa May occupy the front benches, it becomes clear that where you sit in the house is not an indication of your ability

Professor Moriarty · 28-11-2018 8:23pm

Gintonious wrote: »

Its a tad ironic that Mr Mogg calls someone "second rate" when he himself is a backbencher.

Jacob, being a wealthy Old Etonian, has a much different agenda to many Leave voters. He harks back to the good old days of empire and a white England where everybody knows their place. Interestingly, many working class Leave voters project their fears onto Jacob and see him as the embodiment of an England that is long gone. A kind of Lord or Earl who will look after them. It's a unique and deferential part of the English psyche that is hard to understand but it's what he plays into when he attacks Johnny Foreigners such as Carney the Canadian.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-11-2018 8:25pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

No but I get the impression that a lot of people, thought not nearly enough have woken up to the con.

The WWII spirit/Agincourt thing tends to be more common among older people in my experience who will of course be fine given that they own homes. It's the younger people who will bear the consequences and are less likely to spout such claptrap.

Remove the triple lock.
At present pensioners go up annually by the largest of 2.5%, average wages or rate of inflation. Is it sustainable in a poorer economy ?

Also hard Brexit could mean house prices fall by 30%

Capt'n Midnight · 28-11-2018 8:25pm

Link to UK Gov't Long-term economic analysis
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759762/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf

Or the tl;dr version

RobMc59 · 28-11-2018 8:26pm

UsedToWait wrote: »

So you didn't see any of the pushback from the Brexiteers, detailed above?

I find that hard to believe.

Of course I saw it but nobody takes Rees Mogg or Johnson seriously and all outcomes have been looked at-not just no deal brexit.

ancapailldorcha · 28-11-2018 8:35pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Remove the triple lock.
At present pensioners go up annually by the largest of 2.5%, average wages or rate of inflation. Is it sustainable in a poorer economy ?

Also hard Brexit could mean house prices fall by 30%

I don't disagree but how does one accomplish this in a world where younger people are ignoring traditional media for social media while said traditional media thrives on scaring pensioners about being ripped off when they're making off like bandits.

Leroy42 · 28-11-2018 8:45pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

UsedToWait wrote: »

So you didn't see any of the pushback from the Brexiteers, detailed above?

I find that hard to believe.

Of course I saw it but nobody takes Rees Mogg or Johnson seriously and all outcomes have been looked at-not just no deal brexit.

They very certainly do pay them great heed. It was in part at least, because of Johnson that Leave one.

We also get most UK channels over here, so not living in the UK is not really relevant.

The issue is not that the channels are not reporting on the reports, but they are giving the likes of JRM and Johnson equal time and making them out to be equal status experts rather than simply opinion pieces.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-11-2018 8:48pm

prinzeugen wrote: »

Considering the amount of fresh food brought in by air these days.. Not much. Warehouses would be full at this time of year anyway. Its called Christmas!!

If it was just temporary for Christmas then it woudn't have been news. And what about the quarter of a year after Christmas before Brexit ?

As for the air freight
Another major supermarket executive said that air freight isn't the answer: "There simply isn't the capacity at a moment when every other industry will be trying to do the same thing."

prawnsambo · 28-11-2018 8:50pm

Folkstonian wrote: »

When politicians of the calibre of Dianne Abbott, Amber Rudd, and Theresa May occupy the front benches, it becomes clear that where you sit in the house is not an indication of your ability

Or perhaps it is? We all assume JRM is intelligent, but he absolutely made an idiot of himself over the attempted heave against TM. And you have backbenchers like Nadine Dorries. The frightening thought is that it is exactly where you sit is a reflection of your ability and the front bench isn't a particularly high bar.

ancapailldorcha · 28-11-2018 8:50pm

Troll nuked.

RobMc59 · 28-11-2018 9:00pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

They very certainly do pay them great heed. It was in part at least, because of Johnson that Leave one.

We also get most UK channels over here, so not living in the UK is not really relevant.

The issue is not that the channels are not reporting on the reports, but they are giving the likes of JRM and Johnson equal time and making them out to be equal status experts rather than simply opinion pieces.

The way they are perceived and their reputations have taken big hits in recent weeks/days,Johnson especially who ran for the hills when the brown stuff hit the fan and Rees Mogg is regarded as an eccentric anachronism.
Not everyone in the UK is either a rabid brexiteer or a half wit numbskull which is sadly the popular assumption by many here.

prawnsambo · 28-11-2018 9:04pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If it was just temporary for Christmas then it woudn't have been news. And what about the quarter of a year after Christmas before Brexit ?

As for the air freight
Another major supermarket executive said that air freight isn't the answer: "There simply isn't the capacity at a moment when every other industry will be trying to do the same thing."

Using airfreight for food would be hugely expensive. Especially fresh food which is generally bulky. Unless we're talking about truffles or beluga caviare. Most of the fresh food into the UK comes through the chunnel. At present that's a same day shipment. After brexit it's wilted lettuce and mouldy tomatoes.

UsedToWait · 28-11-2018 9:04pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not everyone in the UK is either a rabid brexiteer or a half wit numbskull which is sadly the popular assumption by many here.

I haven't seen anyone here with that opinion.

Most would be of the opinion that the above have been allowed to grab the wheel and steer for the rocks by a, from this vantage, somnolent general public

carrickbally · 28-11-2018 9:05pm

Brexiteers have declared economic war on the citizens of the democracies of the EU with whom the UK had signed a treaty to cooperate in matters of mutual interest.

As one of the largest economies in the EU they want to have a position that allows them to take advantage of the rest of the EU including former colonies of the Soviet Union.

The fact that it will do major damage to these countries seems to be not of concern to the Brexiteers.

By the way is politics.ie still operating?

I find it hard to get in there.

Larbre34 · 28-11-2018 9:27pm

Declared an economic war? I don't think so.

Its similar misconceptions within Leaver Britain that they have such power, influence, leverage, that have them where they are.

Its been an instructive few weeks recently to see reality dawn on a few of the more extreme media faces.

'We have a trade surplus with the EU, they wouldnt dare upset us. US!!!!!'

Yeah in absolute terms ye have, but as a percentage of your economic output, 44% of yours enters the EU, the reverse figure is only 9%. Yes, that has regional skew, but the EU can manage it.

' Why are we so worried about the EU, they are only 8% of the world??!!'

In population terms they are more like 7%, but the EU (with Britain) is 22% of global economic output due to highest value production, R&D, intellectual property and despite the growth of BRIC, lots and lots of the oldest and deepest industrial capital and assets there are.

Shrill shill Melanie Phillips of the Telegraph was hit that particular one on Sky about a fortnight ago and she went a bit pale when the penny dropped. I had a little schadenfreudegasm.

Capt'n Midnight · 28-11-2018 9:54pm

prawnsambo wrote: »

Using airfreight for food would be hugely expensive. Especially fresh food which is generally bulky. Unless we're talking about truffles or beluga caviare. Most of the fresh food into the UK comes through the chunnel. At present that's a same day shipment. After brexit it's wilted lettuce and mouldy tomatoes.

Air freight is used for more food than you'd imagine. But it's not for the staples.

Weight is more of a problem than bulk.

Look at how much Ryanair or Easyjet charge for the cheap flights. And they've to carry you and your seat and the overhead locker and luggage and the window,and the tat they are trying to sell you, and the food trolley and the people pushing it.

There is finite capacity though.
https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2013/08/02/Air-freight-business-experiences-dramatic-rise

During the Berlin air lift they few in bread, until someone pointed out that flour was lighter. Though with Brexit I'd imagine the have's will still get their in-season treats from abroad and the have not's will just have to go without.

Anthracite · 28-11-2018 9:57pm

prinzeugen wrote: »

Google the UN definition of sovereign state.. Anything to try and make the British the baddies.

Yeah, here we all are trying to make a raping and pillaging empire look bad. Shame on us.

We're worse than those people who try to make Hitler look like a bad guy.

Anthracite · 28-11-2018 10:03pm

RobMc59 wrote: »

The way they are perceived and their reputations have taken big hits in recent weeks/days,Johnson especially who ran for the hills when the brown stuff hit the fan and Rees Mogg is regarded as an eccentric anachronism.

And yet both are in the field to be the next PM.

We do have our own ridiculous national steretypes in politics here - the Healy Raes for example - but I find it hard to imagine any situation where they would be considered for the highest office.

prawnsambo · 28-11-2018 10:08pm

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Air freight is used for more food than you'd imagine. But it's not for the staples.

Weight is more of a problem than bulk.

Look at how much Ryanair or Easyjet charge for the cheap flights. And they've to carry you and your seat and the overhead locker and luggage and the window,and the tat they are trying to sell you, and the food trolley and the people pushing it.

There is finite capacity though.
https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2013/08/02/Air-freight-business-experiences-dramatic-rise

During the Berlin air lift they few in bread, until someone pointed out that flour was lighter. Though with Brexit I'd imagine the have's will still get their in-season treats from abroad and the have not's will just have to go without.

Bulk is a problem too. It affects the cost per unit. Freight is always charged on a weight basis, but it assumes a volume as well. So one cubic metre is a one tonne equivalent. The cheap Ryanair flight is only cheap for some of the passengers. Not for all of them btw.

steddyeddy · 28-11-2018 10:12pm

The UK will be worse off in every scenario post Brexit......I have lost all respect for the UK at this stage. It's complete idiocy not to have a second referendum.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wages-theresa-may-gdp-deal-eu-latest-analysis-a8655746.html

WomanSkirtFan8 · 28-11-2018 10:38pm

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK will be worse off in every scenario post Brexit......I have lost all respect for the UK at this stage. It's complete idiocy not to have a second referendum.

absolutely, especially now that there's a lot more info now as to what brexit really means and the dire consequences it'll have. To be honest, the UK (England and Wales in particular) are going to be absolutely destroyed by this decision and as far as I'm concerned, they don't deserve any sympathy for a lunatic decision which they themselves made.:cool:

LeinsterDub · 28-11-2018 10:46pm

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK will be worse off in every scenario post Brexit......I have lost all respect for the UK at this stage. It's complete idiocy not to have a second referendum.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wages-theresa-may-gdp-deal-eu-latest-analysis-a8655746.html

They are happy to be poorer. At least some of them. Basically it boils down to freedom!

McGiver · 28-11-2018 11:03pm

Leroy42 wrote:

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8% House Prices fall 30% Commercial Property price fall 48% Sterling fall 25% Unemployment rise to 7.5% Inflation to 6.5%

And everything already dismissed as Project Fear with no factual counterarguments or studies whatsoever. And that by MPs who should know what they are talking about (they clearly don't). Empty emotional statements with no factual basis. So if these people talk like this, no wonder 30 to 40% ordinary English people who have no clue about economics believe all this Brexit nonsense - they get it validated by the charlatans in power.

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP:Â â€œIt is unusual for the Bank of England to talk down the pound and shows the Governorâ€™s failure to understand his role. He is not there to create panic.â€Â

â€œIt said we would have a punishment Brexit. That was nonsense .. The Treasuryâ€™s reputation has been for politicised forecasts which is why George Osborne set up the Office for Budget Responsibility to do it independently.â€

Charlie Elphicke MP, (Treasury Select Committee):Â â€œThe other day Dr Carney told the Treasury Select Committee that interest rates could go down in a no deal Brexit. Today he says they will rise. The Bank of England is all over the place. No wonder former MPC member, Andrew Sentence, questions whether this is political rather than economic forecasting.â€

Simon Clarke MP (Treasury Select Committee):Â â€œThe Bank of England produces forecasts modelling a wide range of possibilities, many of which they themselves say are extreme. This should not be read as a likely future forecast.

â€œOur countryâ€™s fundamental strengths are enormous - as the Chancellor often says - and we should have confidence that we will succeed in any scenario.â€

Priti Patel MP:Â â€œThe Bank of England is undermining its credibility and independence by giving such prominence to these extreme economic forecasts and scenarios.â€Â

Marcus Fysh MP:Â â€œThis is just the same old Bank of England stress testing. In no way a forecast.â€

Ben Bradley MP:Â â€œThe Bank of England models all sorts of options that even they say are not predictions, and are based on extremes of circumstances in order to â€˜stress testâ€™.

â€œThe PM herself this week questioned the reliability of economic forecasting in the House, and weâ€™ve seen practically every forecast about Brexit so far under-estimate the success of our economy.Â

â€œThe bank doesnâ€™t publish the assumptions that underly these forecasts, maybe we should be asking them why?â€

RobMc59 · 28-11-2018 11:04pm

Anthracite wrote: »

Yeah, here we all are trying to make a raping and pillaging empire look bad. Shame on us.

We're worse than those people who try to make Hitler look like a bad guy.

What has any of what you're saying in this post got to do with brexit?

Tell me how · 28-11-2018 11:27pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

Love the response to this. Video is worth watching just to hear the tone of derision.

https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/1067860687337267202

briany · 28-11-2018 11:34pm

VonZan wrote: »

The problem with a second referendum is that you could get the electorate voting for a no deal scenario as it's very obvious that a lot of people in the UK are sick of globalisation. Every scenario will damage our economy bar the UK reversing the triggering of article 50.

I'm not sure I understand the electorate's thinking, then. In a no-deal scenario, assuming they can sort out certain issues with the WTO, they'll be attempting to establish trade deals with economies all over the world. Deals that could include the free movement of people and free access to certain market sectors. What would this be, only more globalisation?

A Dub in Glasgo · 28-11-2018 11:40pm

VonZan wrote: »

The problem with a second referendum is that you could get the electorate voting for a no deal scenario as it's very obvious that a lot of people in the UK are sick of globalisation. Every scenario will damage our economy bar the UK reversing the triggering of article 50.

A 2nd referendum will be Brexit with this deal or Remain

There is a case in the ECJ to decide if the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50

Water John · 28-11-2018 11:50pm

We'll know the ECJ outcome on the 4th Dec.
2nd Ref is coming more into probable from possible. McDonnell laid out a process by which it may happen, basically it's on if a GE is not called.

The amendments will be taken before the main vote. Their will be 6, picked by Bercow.

28-11-2018 11:59pm

Anthracite wrote: »

And yet both are in the field to be the next PM.

We do have our own ridiculous national steretypes in politics here - the Healy Raes for example - but I find it hard to imagine any situation where they would be considered for the highest office.

Never underestimate the influence of parliamentary arithmetic when the need arises. Look at the DUP.

Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

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