Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

RobMc59

Peregrinus wrote: »

Well, that depends on what they consi8der patriotic, surely? In this case we are discussing people who might think that there was some meaningful parallel between (a) the UK leaving the EU and as a result being treated as a non-Member, and (b) an armed invasion by Nazi troops. That parallel would make me feel pretty nauseous, but perhaps you have a stronger stomach than I do.

I think bonniesituations reasonings are closer the mark,which is unfortunate as it makes reasonable discussion difficult.

flatty

I wonder whether a second referendum is actually becoming a possibility.
Mcdonnell has suggested as much today. That's both of jc's right hand men in favour.

flatty

I only say this, as snp, lib dems, and several tory rebels would support one. If Labour whipped it, there would be the vast majority of Labour mp's, and it would, in fact, offer the dup a ladder out of the hole they've dug themselves into.

Leroy42

flatty wrote: »

I wonder whether a second referendum is actually becoming a possibility.
Mcdonnell has suggested as much today. That's both of jc's right hand men in favour.

I really cannot see it happening. Quite apart from the lack of MP's calling for it, I think it sets a dangerous precedent going forward.

Each government gets it power from the vote of the people, they are pretty much allowed to get away with anything during the time as people voted for them. This would basically be admitting that the HoC cannot govern the country.

What is the knock on effect of that?

I mean this only in the context of the UK, normal democracies could see the value. Its akin to the POTUS, once voted in it is almost impossible to remove them due to going against the vote of the people.

The voters in the UK decided to leave, the HoC now need to inact that wish.

Podge_irl

First Up wrote: »

For intra- Schengen flights there are no passport checks. It doesn't matter where the passengers are from.

For flights arriving from outside Schengen there are passport checks for everyone. Most airports have EU and non-EU queues but everyone gets checked.

For flights from Ireland and the UK into Schengen, everyone gets checked. There may be EU and non-EU lines but these are the only intra-EU flights for which passport checks apply.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Since the checks that Schengen countries carry out on non-Schengen EU/EEA citizens are quite different from the checks that they carry out on third-country citizens, many (most?) international airports have separate queuing/processing for the two groups. So choose the right airport, and this shouldn't be too big a problem.

Yes. None of which contradicts what I said above or what was said by Peregrinus. There is separate queuing for EU passengers which mitigates (though obviously does not eliminate) the issue with long haul flights coming in at the same time as you.

Leroy42

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

LeinsterDub

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

Do you have a link? What kind of brexit?

Leroy42

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Do you have a link? What kind of brexit?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

LuckyLloyd

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really cannot see it happening. Quite apart from the lack of MP's calling for it, I think it sets a dangerous precedent going forward.

Each government gets it power from the vote of the people, they are pretty much allowed to get away with anything during the time as people voted for them. This would basically be admitting that the HoC cannot govern the country.

What is the knock on effect of that?

I mean this only in the context of the UK, normal democracies could see the value. Its akin to the POTUS, once voted in it is almost impossible to remove them due to going against the vote of the people.

The voters in the UK decided to leave, the HoC now need to inact that wish.

That's rubbish imo. The 2016 referendum was:

• High level and non specific on a topic that has proven enormously complex and detailed
• Involved a major Leave organisation being in breach of rules
• Featurerd major disinformation and was not monitored by an appropriately empowered referendum commission

We now have an actual negotiated position available and that offers a completely rational basis on which to go back to the people. Two and a half years later, a huge amount of the hearsay and disinformation has actually been narrowed down and disproven with a quantifiable deal on the table and a more realistic outline of the potential process / timetable it implies mapped out ahead.

And in any case, a question of leaving the EU is honestly more fundamental than the vast majority of the slate of decisions faced by a HoC during a typical government. Only the question of going to war is more fundamental, and that isn't necessarily run by parliament in every scenario.

I'm surprised you hold this position based on your contributions in this thread to date, to be honest.

First Up

Podge_irl wrote: »

First Up wrote: »

For intra- Schengen flights there are no passport checks. It doesn't matter where the passengers are from.

For flights arriving from outside Schengen there are passport checks for everyone. Most airports have EU and non-EU queues but everyone gets checked.

For flights from Ireland and the UK into Schengen, everyone gets checked. There may be EU and non-EU lines but these are the only intra-EU flights for which passport checks apply.

Peregrinus wrote: »

Since the checks that Schengen countries carry out on non-Schengen EU/EEA citizens are quite different from the checks that they carry out on third-country citizens, many (most?) international airports have separate queuing/processing for the two groups. So choose the right airport, and this shouldn't be too big a problem.

Yes. None of which contradicts what I said above or what was said by Peregrinus. There is separate queuing for EU passengers which mitigates (though obviously does not eliminate) the issue with long haul flights coming in at the same time as you.

There is no queueing for any passengers on flights within the Schengen area because there is nothing to queue for.

Passengers from Ireland and the UK are treated like those arriving from outside Europe. Yes, EU passport holders get their own queue but it is still a queue.

LuckyLloyd

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

It's precisely because of work like this that a second referendum should be facilitated. That and the position papers eventually produced by government throughout the process to date, etc.

If the voters choose to ignore all of this a second time, well fair enough. But it is a nonsense to say the same context exists as that upon which the 2016 referendum was fought.

lawred2

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8%
House Prices fall 30%
Commercial Property price fall 48%
Sterling fall 25%
Unemployment rise to 7.5%
Inflation to 6.5%

Not sure of the timeline of these.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2018/nov/28/brexit-pmqs-may-corbyn-hammond-economic-analysis-confirms-that-leaving-eu-will-make-uk-poorer-politics-live

Ouch

Project Fear I suppose

Leroy42

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

That's rubbish imo. The 2016 referendum was:

• High level and non specific on a topic that has proven enormously complex and detailed
• Involved a major Leave organisation being in breach of rules
• Featurerd major disinformation and was not monitored by an appropriately empowered referendum commission

We now have an actual negotiated position available and that offers a completely rational basis on which to go back to the people. Two and a half years later, a huge amount of the hearsay and disinformation has actually been narrowed down and disproven with a quantifiable deal on the table and a more realistic outline of the potential process / timetable it implies mapped out ahead.

And in any case, a question of leaving the EU is honestly more fundamental than the vast majority of the slate of decisions faced by a HoC during a typical government. Only the question of going to war is more fundamental, and that isn't necessarily run by parliament in every scenario.

I'm surprised you hold this position based on your contributions in this thread to date, to be honest.

Jebus, steady on there.

It is only my assessment of what is likely to happen in the UK, not a commentary on what my position is.

The points you raised are of course all valid, but seemingly have no impact in the UK. There is no a major call for a 2nd Ref, the people are very much in the "just get on with it", I'm bored of Brexit camp.

So we are talking about what is likely to happen in the UK, not, and this cannot be overstressed, what is the actual rational and best course of action.

Of course a second Ref is the best option, for the points you raised, but do you think anyone is going to make that case in the UK without being shouted down?

Hammond came out today with DoF estimates and projections and they were roundly ignored and called useless by many MP's. Davis stood up in the HoC and claimed that no economic forecast has ever been correct, and by implication, the DoF can be ignored.

Carney will be ripped to shreds by the likes of Johnson and JRM in the papers tomorrow. It is in that context that you think the people will vote again? There isn't the time, remainers are largely classed as elite traitors, and the predictions going into the campaign from the remain side are accounted as worthless (which upon any close inspection shows that they were more right than wrong)

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1067791873945845762

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1067792191345647616

Here comes Boris, I knew he was a clown, but not on this level.

funkey_monkey

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Do you have a link? What kind of brexit?

This Bank's scenario is not what it expects to happen, but represents a worst-case scenario, based on a so called "disorderly Brexit".
...
The Bank of England has made a number of assumptions - not forecasts - about what would cause a disorderly Brexit.

• The UK reverts to World Trade Organization rules
• No new trade deals are implemented by 2022
• The UK loses all access to existing trade agreements between the EU and third countries
• Severe disruption at borders because of customs checks
• Migration reverses from 150,000 a year to falling by 100,000 a year

funkey_monkey

Edit: The have also done scenarios for three other scenarios:

• a "disruptive" Brexit - one where the UK retained access to some trade agreements.
• what might happen if trading arrangements were agreed to give the UK a "close" relationship
• what might happen if trading arrangements were agreed to give the UK a "less close" relationship

Also, the following should be noted about this data:

These are scenarios not forecasts. They illustrate what could happen not necessarily what is most likely to happen.

Economically the close relationship is the best option, but then there is really no point in leaving as what they will end up with is being in the CU with no say on matters. Similar for the less close option.

I feel it would have been better for them to present a 'most likely' perspective on a no deal scenario - what they have presented will be, as is seen already, scoffed at by the Brexiteers, and in doing so, their voters will ignore too.

It really hits home just how important it is for them to get some sort of a deal.

Leroy42

Well they are not forecasts since they don't know what is actually going to happen in Brexit. But they are forecasts of what they think is likely to happen with a crash out and all the other issues.

They are not classing them as forecasts because, as the Johnson tweets show, people simply ignore forecasts (without ever explaining how we are supposed to plan for anything without them or how they came to there position about Brexit being good for UK).

But that is exactly where the UK is at the moment. Experts are to be ignored, forecasts are rubbish (does anyone think Johnson has taken the time to understand the underlying assumptions and calculations on which they are based?).

Frank Bullitt

Leroy42 wrote: »

Well they are not forecasts since they don't know what is actually going to happen in Brexit. But they are forecasts of what they think is likely to happen with a crash out and all the other issues.

They are not classing them as forecasts because, as the Johnson tweets show, people simply ignore forecasts (without ever explaining how we are supposed to plan for anything without them or how they came to there position about Brexit being good for UK).

But that is exactly where the UK is at the moment. Experts are to be ignored, forecasts are rubbish (does anyone think Johnson has taken the time to understand the underlying assumptions and calculations on which they are based?).

If there were 100 reports published and 99 of them were like the one published today, and the remaining 1 forecast something positive they would cling to that in an instant, even if the report they favoured was published by a busman.

It seems that at this stage, absolutely nothing on this earth will convince the Brexiters that they are heading for the stone age.

Professor Moriarty

Gintonious wrote: »

If there were 100 reports published and 99 of them were like the one published today, and the remaining 1 forecast something positive they would cling to that in an instant, even if the report they favoured was published by a busman.

It seems that at this stage, absolutely nothing on this earth will convince the Brexiters that they are heading for the stone age.

What's your problem with busmen?

flatty

Leroy42 wrote: »

Jebus, steady on there.

It is only my assessment of what is likely to happen in the UK, not a commentary on what my position is.

The points you raised are of course all valid, but seemingly have no impact in the UK. There is no a major call for a 2nd Ref, the people are very much in the "just get on with it", I'm bored of Brexit camp.

So we are talking about what is likely to happen in the UK, not, and this cannot be overstressed, what is the actual rational and best course of action.

Of course a second Ref is the best option, for the points you raised, but do you think anyone is going to make that case in the UK without being shouted down?

Hammond came out today with DoF estimates and projections and they were roundly ignored and called useless by many MP's. Davis stood up in the HoC and claimed that no economic forecast has ever been correct, and by implication, the DoF can be ignored.

Carney will be ripped to shreds by the likes of Johnson and JRM in the papers tomorrow. It is in that context that you think the people will vote again? There isn't the time, remainers are largely classed as elite traitors, and the predictions going into the campaign from the remain side are accounted as worthless (which upon any close inspection shows that they were more right than wrong)

Who says the people are very much in the "get on with it" mindset?
A few irate Jeremy Kyle callers, the daily wail, the express, and people with absolute agendas like May, fox, Davis and Johnson and their ilk.
It's bullshyte, used to ram through a brexit, any brexit. The same voices would be howling for another run at it were the boot on the other foot.

UsedToWait

The honorable Mr Fysh was on the BBC News there rubbishing the Bank of England reports as Project Fear part deux.

My fear is that people are so politically disengaged over there, and society (which famously Mrs Thatch told us didn't exist) so fragmented, that the Brexiteers will get their way in the end.

The Beeb, whose only saving grace these days is the venerable Mr Attenborough, also showed that complete idiot Davis, rubbishing the economic forecasts.
How he is even considered as an authority on anything beyond tying his own shoelaces is a mystery to me.

LuckyLloyd

Leroy42 wrote: »

I really cannot see it happening. Quite apart from the lack of MP's calling for it, I think it sets a dangerous precedent going forward.

Each government gets it power from the vote of the people, they are pretty much allowed to get away with anything during the time as people voted for them. This would basically be admitting that the HoC cannot govern the country.

What is the knock on effect of that?

I mean this only in the context of the UK, normal democracies could see the value. Its akin to the POTUS, once voted in it is almost impossible to remove them due to going against the vote of the people.

The voters in the UK decided to leave, the HoC now need to inact that wish.

@Leroy my response to this was based on the way it's written: it reads as your opinion on what should happen; rather than a likely prediction.

Frank Bullitt

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

What's your problem with busmen?

Once they are on time, I have no issue with them

Beechwoodspark

At this stage I suspect the no deal scenario will happen but only for a short time when the UK finally sees the consequences. Up until then they will play a game of chicken with the EU. Boris and the brexiters will be nowhere to be seen for the task of cleaning up after it

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1067853557221785601

This is really something, attacking Mark Carney more than actually attacking what he has said.

Yikes, it's getting worse and worse.

Professor Moriarty

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1067853557221785601

This is really something, attacking Mark Carney more than actually attacking what he has said.

Yikes, it's getting worse and worse.

A true Brexiteer will sink to any depth.

Thargor

Did you see her leering death grin in the HoC earlier when she bizarrely claimed the report doesn't say they'll be poorer after this (all the scenarios in that report say this)? Shes not fully human.

RobMc59

It would be interesting to know how many people posting on this brexit forum live in the UK?-The reason I say this is because all the news channels I have watched today have clearly said a no deal brexit would be catastrophic for the UK whilst not leaving the EU is better than ANY leave/deal scenario. And that doesn't seem to be what is being said here..

UsedToWait

RobMc59 wrote: »

It would be interesting to know how many people posting on this brexit forum live in the UK?-The reason I say this is because all the news channels I have watched today have clearly said a no deal brexit would be catastrophic for the UK whilst not leaving the EU is better than ANY leave/deal scenario. And that doesn't seem to be what is being said here..

So you didn't see any of the pushback from the Brexiteers, detailed above?

I find that hard to believe.

lawred2

Gintonious wrote: »

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1067853557221785601

This is really something, attacking Mark Carney more than actually attacking what he has said.

Yikes, it's getting worse and worse.

Trump style personal attacks are the norm now. Good god political discourse is in the toilet.