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Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

Rhineshark

kuro68k wrote: »

The British government is going to take it right to the cliff edge and hope that someone else compromises. Of course they have their excuses already lined up if no-one does, only real question is who they will blame.

1. The EU
2. Remainers
3. Ireland
4. Corbyn

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Peregrinus

Thargor wrote: »

Did you see her leering death grin in the HoC earlier when she bizarrely claimed the report doesn't say they'll be poorer after this (all the scenarios in that report say this)? Shes not fully human.

Strictly speaking, though, she's correct. The forecasts are not saying that, with Brexit, the UK will be poorer in (say) 2023 than it is in 2018. They are saying that it will be poorer in 2023 than it would have been, but for Brexit; but still richer than it is now in 2018.

The chart in this post makes the point:

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Link to UK Gov't Long-term economic analysis
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/759762/28_November_EU_Exit_-_Long-term_economic_analysis.pdf

Or the tl;dr version

In all scenarios, even the worst, UK GDP is higher in 2021 than it was in 2016, when the referendum vote was held. It's lower than it needs to be; the UK will be noticeably underperforming comparable and neighbouring economies; there will, in the more extreme scenarios, have been massive disruption and dislocation; in general it will be a dismal experience. But, on these predictions, the UK will not actually have be poorer than it was in 2016.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/JohnOBrennan2/status/1067916201907666944

It's a lost cause at this point.

Enzokk

joeysoap wrote: »

We will be the only EU country to have to pass through this control next year.

From my very limited experience you are herded to areas that has very little facilities compared to the rest of the airport that Schengen passengers get access to after clearing security. This is less facilities in airports that are geared to mostly low cost airlines as well.

Leroy42 wrote: »

I was listening to Brexitcast last night, and although they all commented on the fact that all EU leaders were adamant that the deal was the only one on offer, they all still said that nobody knows what the final deal will be until March.

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

How are you finding the Brexitcast? Remainiacs is the only one I listen to which is obviously horrendously biased but excellent nonetheless.

I stopped listening to them as they were basically, as far as I was concerned, just rehashing the news of the past week and kept saying that the EU leaves everything to the last minute and a deal will be done. I never really found intensive discussions about issues such as the Irish border and what that means for the kind of deal that the UK can realistically get. Then again I must have missed something as we are talking about the best of the BBC News reporters.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

They don't, but they still have an unhealthy influence (for now) because of the current HoC setup nonetheless.

Yes. And Healy-Rae had an influence on government here too. But that's not what constitutes the highest office.

[Deleted User]

prawnsambo wrote: »

The DUP don't hold any office in Westminster. Never mind a high one.

They don't, but they still have an unhealthy influence (for now) because of the current HoC setup nonetheless.

prawnsambo

Deleted User wrote: »

Never underestimate the influence of parliamentary arithmetic when the need arises. Look at the DUP.

The DUP don't hold any office in Westminster. Never mind a high one.

Water John

Katie Razzall BBC2 embarrased interviewing Chuuka Umma. He is speaking about a Peoples Vote and Katie repeats it, then corrects it to call it a 2nd Ref. Chuuka tells her, she was told what to say, in her ear.

[Deleted User]

Anthracite wrote: »

And yet both are in the field to be the next PM.

We do have our own ridiculous national steretypes in politics here - the Healy Raes for example - but I find it hard to imagine any situation where they would be considered for the highest office.

Never underestimate the influence of parliamentary arithmetic when the need arises. Look at the DUP.

Water John

We'll know the ECJ outcome on the 4th Dec.
2nd Ref is coming more into probable from possible. McDonnell laid out a process by which it may happen, basically it's on if a GE is not called.

The amendments will be taken before the main vote. Their will be 6, picked by Bercow.

A Dub in Glasgo

VonZan wrote: »

The problem with a second referendum is that you could get the electorate voting for a no deal scenario as it's very obvious that a lot of people in the UK are sick of globalisation. Every scenario will damage our economy bar the UK reversing the triggering of article 50.

A 2nd referendum will be Brexit with this deal or Remain

There is a case in the ECJ to decide if the UK can unilaterally revoke Article 50

briany

VonZan wrote: »

The problem with a second referendum is that you could get the electorate voting for a no deal scenario as it's very obvious that a lot of people in the UK are sick of globalisation. Every scenario will damage our economy bar the UK reversing the triggering of article 50.

I'm not sure I understand the electorate's thinking, then. In a no-deal scenario, assuming they can sort out certain issues with the WTO, they'll be attempting to establish trade deals with economies all over the world. Deals that could include the free movement of people and free access to certain market sectors. What would this be, only more globalisation?

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

Love the response to this. Video is worth watching just to hear the tone of derision.

https://twitter.com/markpalexander/status/1067860687337267202

RobMc59

Anthracite wrote: »

Yeah, here we all are trying to make a raping and pillaging empire look bad. Shame on us.

We're worse than those people who try to make Hitler look like a bad guy.

What has any of what you're saying in this post got to do with brexit?

McGiver

Leroy42 wrote:

Mark Carney has just released the BoE report into the possible effects of Brexit. Jebus, he ain't pulling any punches!

GDP drops 8% House Prices fall 30% Commercial Property price fall 48% Sterling fall 25% Unemployment rise to 7.5% Inflation to 6.5%

And everything already dismissed as Project Fear with no factual counterarguments or studies whatsoever. And that by MPs who should know what they are talking about (they clearly don't). Empty emotional statements with no factual basis. So if these people talk like this, no wonder 30 to 40% ordinary English people who have no clue about economics believe all this Brexit nonsense - they get it validated by the charlatans in power.

Jacob Rees-Mogg MP:Â â€œIt is unusual for the Bank of England to talk down the pound and shows the Governorâ€™s failure to understand his role. He is not there to create panic.â€Â

â€œIt said we would have a punishment Brexit. That was nonsense .. The Treasuryâ€™s reputation has been for politicised forecasts which is why George Osborne set up the Office for Budget Responsibility to do it independently.â€

Charlie Elphicke MP, (Treasury Select Committee):Â â€œThe other day Dr Carney told the Treasury Select Committee that interest rates could go down in a no deal Brexit. Today he says they will rise. The Bank of England is all over the place. No wonder former MPC member, Andrew Sentence, questions whether this is political rather than economic forecasting.â€

Simon Clarke MP (Treasury Select Committee):Â â€œThe Bank of England produces forecasts modelling a wide range of possibilities, many of which they themselves say are extreme. This should not be read as a likely future forecast.

â€œOur countryâ€™s fundamental strengths are enormous - as the Chancellor often says - and we should have confidence that we will succeed in any scenario.â€

Priti Patel MP:Â â€œThe Bank of England is undermining its credibility and independence by giving such prominence to these extreme economic forecasts and scenarios.â€Â

Marcus Fysh MP:Â â€œThis is just the same old Bank of England stress testing. In no way a forecast.â€

Ben Bradley MP:Â â€œThe Bank of England models all sorts of options that even they say are not predictions, and are based on extremes of circumstances in order to â€˜stress testâ€™.

â€œThe PM herself this week questioned the reliability of economic forecasting in the House, and weâ€™ve seen practically every forecast about Brexit so far under-estimate the success of our economy.Â

â€œThe bank doesnâ€™t publish the assumptions that underly these forecasts, maybe we should be asking them why?â€

LeinsterDub

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK will be worse off in every scenario post Brexit......I have lost all respect for the UK at this stage. It's complete idiocy not to have a second referendum.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wages-theresa-may-gdp-deal-eu-latest-analysis-a8655746.html

They are happy to be poorer. At least some of them. Basically it boils down to freedom!

WomanSkirtFan8

steddyeddy wrote: »

The UK will be worse off in every scenario post Brexit......I have lost all respect for the UK at this stage. It's complete idiocy not to have a second referendum.

absolutely, especially now that there's a lot more info now as to what brexit really means and the dire consequences it'll have. To be honest, the UK (England and Wales in particular) are going to be absolutely destroyed by this decision and as far as I'm concerned, they don't deserve any sympathy for a lunatic decision which they themselves made.:cool:

steddyeddy

The UK will be worse off in every scenario post Brexit......I have lost all respect for the UK at this stage. It's complete idiocy not to have a second referendum.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-wages-theresa-may-gdp-deal-eu-latest-analysis-a8655746.html

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Air freight is used for more food than you'd imagine. But it's not for the staples.

Weight is more of a problem than bulk.

Look at how much Ryanair or Easyjet charge for the cheap flights. And they've to carry you and your seat and the overhead locker and luggage and the window,and the tat they are trying to sell you, and the food trolley and the people pushing it.

There is finite capacity though.
https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2013/08/02/Air-freight-business-experiences-dramatic-rise

During the Berlin air lift they few in bread, until someone pointed out that flour was lighter. Though with Brexit I'd imagine the have's will still get their in-season treats from abroad and the have not's will just have to go without.

Bulk is a problem too. It affects the cost per unit. Freight is always charged on a weight basis, but it assumes a volume as well. So one cubic metre is a one tonne equivalent. The cheap Ryanair flight is only cheap for some of the passengers. Not for all of them btw.

Anthracite

RobMc59 wrote: »

The way they are perceived and their reputations have taken big hits in recent weeks/days,Johnson especially who ran for the hills when the brown stuff hit the fan and Rees Mogg is regarded as an eccentric anachronism.

And yet both are in the field to be the next PM.

We do have our own ridiculous national steretypes in politics here - the Healy Raes for example - but I find it hard to imagine any situation where they would be considered for the highest office.

Anthracite

prinzeugen wrote: »

Google the UN definition of sovereign state.. Anything to try and make the British the baddies.

Yeah, here we all are trying to make a raping and pillaging empire look bad. Shame on us.

We're worse than those people who try to make Hitler look like a bad guy.

Capt'n Midnight

prawnsambo wrote: »

Using airfreight for food would be hugely expensive. Especially fresh food which is generally bulky. Unless we're talking about truffles or beluga caviare. Most of the fresh food into the UK comes through the chunnel. At present that's a same day shipment. After brexit it's wilted lettuce and mouldy tomatoes.

Air freight is used for more food than you'd imagine. But it's not for the staples.

Weight is more of a problem than bulk.

Look at how much Ryanair or Easyjet charge for the cheap flights. And they've to carry you and your seat and the overhead locker and luggage and the window,and the tat they are trying to sell you, and the food trolley and the people pushing it.

There is finite capacity though.
https://www.foodmanufacture.co.uk/Article/2013/08/02/Air-freight-business-experiences-dramatic-rise

During the Berlin air lift they few in bread, until someone pointed out that flour was lighter. Though with Brexit I'd imagine the have's will still get their in-season treats from abroad and the have not's will just have to go without.

Larbre34

Declared an economic war? I don't think so.

Its similar misconceptions within Leaver Britain that they have such power, influence, leverage, that have them where they are.

Its been an instructive few weeks recently to see reality dawn on a few of the more extreme media faces.

'We have a trade surplus with the EU, they wouldnt dare upset us. US!!!!!'

Yeah in absolute terms ye have, but as a percentage of your economic output, 44% of yours enters the EU, the reverse figure is only 9%. Yes, that has regional skew, but the EU can manage it.

' Why are we so worried about the EU, they are only 8% of the world??!!'

In population terms they are more like 7%, but the EU (with Britain) is 22% of global economic output due to highest value production, R&D, intellectual property and despite the growth of BRIC, lots and lots of the oldest and deepest industrial capital and assets there are.

Shrill shill Melanie Phillips of the Telegraph was hit that particular one on Sky about a fortnight ago and she went a bit pale when the penny dropped. I had a little schadenfreudegasm.

carrickbally

Brexiteers have declared economic war on the citizens of the democracies of the EU with whom the UK had signed a treaty to cooperate in matters of mutual interest.

As one of the largest economies in the EU they want to have a position that allows them to take advantage of the rest of the EU including former colonies of the Soviet Union.

The fact that it will do major damage to these countries seems to be not of concern to the Brexiteers.

By the way is politics.ie still operating?

I find it hard to get in there.

UsedToWait

RobMc59 wrote: »

Not everyone in the UK is either a rabid brexiteer or a half wit numbskull which is sadly the popular assumption by many here.

I haven't seen anyone here with that opinion.

Most would be of the opinion that the above have been allowed to grab the wheel and steer for the rocks by a, from this vantage, somnolent general public

prawnsambo

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

If it was just temporary for Christmas then it woudn't have been news. And what about the quarter of a year after Christmas before Brexit ?

As for the air freight
Another major supermarket executive said that air freight isn't the answer: "There simply isn't the capacity at a moment when every other industry will be trying to do the same thing."

Using airfreight for food would be hugely expensive. Especially fresh food which is generally bulky. Unless we're talking about truffles or beluga caviare. Most of the fresh food into the UK comes through the chunnel. At present that's a same day shipment. After brexit it's wilted lettuce and mouldy tomatoes.

RobMc59

Leroy42 wrote: »

They very certainly do pay them great heed. It was in part at least, because of Johnson that Leave one.

We also get most UK channels over here, so not living in the UK is not really relevant.

The issue is not that the channels are not reporting on the reports, but they are giving the likes of JRM and Johnson equal time and making them out to be equal status experts rather than simply opinion pieces.

The way they are perceived and their reputations have taken big hits in recent weeks/days,Johnson especially who ran for the hills when the brown stuff hit the fan and Rees Mogg is regarded as an eccentric anachronism.
Not everyone in the UK is either a rabid brexiteer or a half wit numbskull which is sadly the popular assumption by many here.

ancapailldorcha

Troll nuked.

prawnsambo

Folkstonian wrote: »

When politicians of the calibre of Dianne Abbott, Amber Rudd, and Theresa May occupy the front benches, it becomes clear that where you sit in the house is not an indication of your ability

Or perhaps it is? We all assume JRM is intelligent, but he absolutely made an idiot of himself over the attempted heave against TM. And you have backbenchers like Nadine Dorries. The frightening thought is that it is exactly where you sit is a reflection of your ability and the front bench isn't a particularly high bar.

Capt'n Midnight

prinzeugen wrote: »

Considering the amount of fresh food brought in by air these days.. Not much. Warehouses would be full at this time of year anyway. Its called Christmas!!

If it was just temporary for Christmas then it woudn't have been news. And what about the quarter of a year after Christmas before Brexit ?

As for the air freight
Another major supermarket executive said that air freight isn't the answer: "There simply isn't the capacity at a moment when every other industry will be trying to do the same thing."

Leroy42

RobMc59 wrote: »

UsedToWait wrote: »

So you didn't see any of the pushback from the Brexiteers, detailed above?

I find that hard to believe.

Of course I saw it but nobody takes Rees Mogg or Johnson seriously and all outcomes have been looked at-not just no deal brexit.

They very certainly do pay them great heed. It was in part at least, because of Johnson that Leave one.

We also get most UK channels over here, so not living in the UK is not really relevant.

The issue is not that the channels are not reporting on the reports, but they are giving the likes of JRM and Johnson equal time and making them out to be equal status experts rather than simply opinion pieces.