Brexit discussion thread V - No Pic/GIF dumps please

jaykay74

jaykay74 wrote: »

Sorry if its been posted already but I dont see it in the last page or 2.

It seems like polling shows a lot of confusion over what the public want now and depending on how a question is asked you can takeaway the outcome you wish from it. Surely it can only be no deal since thats the default position when no consensus can be agreed.

stolen from one of the replies to explain the pie charts quickly... "The point of it being shown this way is it shows most voters prefer Remain to the May deal, that they prefer the May Deal to no deal, and that they prefer no deal to remain."

https://twitter.com/m2matthijs/status/1067824093922131968

https://twitter.com/BrendanNyhan/status/1067938513813995522


It was an error, and even if it weren't, the person who decided to present the data like that shouldn't be trusted with presenting data.

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

Maybe British posters are in the minority on a thread about Brexit.But not all British people are Brexiteers ... old gripes and grudges shouldn't be part of it.I realise there will be posts saying that's not the case but in reality it is.

You need to remember that boards.ie is, at its heart, a forum for Irish people, so not a natural port of call for British contributors from either camp, unless they happen to be resident in - or have contact with - Ireland. I'm a member of a French anglophone forum, and the Brexit threads there are overwhelmingly dominated by British contributors, almost all anti-Brexit but like here, the discussion tends to be very fact-based on the Remainer side and very "emotional" on the Brexiteer side.

Those "French" Brits have a personal stake in the future EU-UK relationship, as it's likely to impact their lives far more than anyone contributing to this board, or indeed those Brits-in-Britain who want to sail off into the Great Brexit-blue Yonder. Questions about residency entitlements, ease of travel, having friends over to work in the family business, health care, etc, etc.

The discussion here, as you acknowledge, is largely concentrated on the economic impact for Ireland of Britain's decision, and even though the real people behind the pseudonyms will be affected to some extent, the discussion is largely academic - almost a spectator sport. Most posts that would fall into the category of "old gripes and grudges" are more tongue-in-cheek than genuine opinion, but there is a big difference in perspective on the GB-Ireland relationship between our two populations.

To refer back to the earlier "fight them on the beaches" comment: in England, that is symbolic of Britain's fight against the German Oppressor, often coupled with the declaration "if it weren't for those brave boys, we'd all be speaking German now". But at the time young Willie McBride was fighting and dying in the Green Fields of France, our oppressor was Britain, and we ended up speaking English instead of Irish, hence our low nausea threshold.

Fast forward to the 21st Century, and that language question is still a bone of contention in one part of the island, so actually not so old a gripe after all. It's this level of Britain's entanglement with Irish history that was ignored by the Brexiteers (and pretty much all of the Remainers and the British media) before the referendum, yet led to the backstop that so hobbled negotiations on the Withdrawal Agreement.

I think it was before your arrival, but back in the third or fourth iteration of this discussion, we had one Brexit-supporting contributor (Solo ... greatly missed) who did try to engage constructively in the debate, and was respected for his participation. Since then, though, the quality of Leave advocates is greatly diminished.

Skelet0n

Anyone listening to James O'Brien? There was just a proper tinfoil hat UKIP New World Order Brexiter on.

Will post a link once it's put on youtube.

Leroy42

It turns out that Brexit has had quite the impact on EU immigration into the UK.

https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1068079696598974464

But it has also seen an increase (highest since 2004) in the non-EU nationals immigration (248k non EU vs 74k EU).

Now a caveat, these are estimates since they don't actually has actual numbers, but these are the very same system that the Brexiteers used to decry the number of foreigners coming to the UK so it is a consistent (if flawed) process.

So the part of immigration that the UK have complete and total control over they are currently seeing 3.35 times more immigration from and doing nothing at all about it.

judeboy101

Corby v may, BBC 8pm Sunday before the vote. She has insisted it be a panel, whatever that means.

Water John

Would that mean no studio audience? A Panel seems to indicate a range of views, all the way from Remain to Crash out Brexiteer.

Enzokk

Leroy42 wrote: »

It turns out that Brexit has had quite the impact on EU immigration into the UK.

https://twitter.com/DannyShawBBC/status/1068079696598974464

But it has also seen an increase (highest since 2004) in the non-EU nationals immigration (248k non EU vs 74k EU).

Now a caveat, these are estimates since they don't actually has actual numbers, but these are the very same system that the Brexiteers used to decry the number of foreigners coming to the UK so it is a consistent (if flawed) process.

So the part of immigration that the UK have complete and total control over they are currently seeing 3.35 times more immigration from and doing nothing at all about it.

It's almost like a country that relies on immigration will swap one kind for another when the need arises. Another shocking conclusion that was in no way obvious to anyone beforehand.

LeinsterDub

judeboy101 wrote: »

Corby v may, BBC 8pm Sunday before the vote. She has insisted it be a panel, whatever that means.

Labour haven't confirmed yet . Unless you're info is hot off the presses?

A Dub in Glasgo

judeboy101 wrote: »

Corby v may, BBC 8pm Sunday before the vote. She has insisted it be a panel, whatever that means.

I have no idea what this is trying to achieve

Captain Obvious

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I have no idea what this is trying to achieve

Corbyn is a weak link for Remainers and May knows it. She will try and trap him into a position on a second referendum and he'll try and weasel out of it instead of taking a hard stand.

Water John

Maybe she thinks that, her Deal will sound the most attainable and likely. She is banking on the public wanting to move on even if the Deal is flawed.

ancapailldorcha

Water John wrote: »

Maybe she thinks that, her Deal will sound the most attainable and likely. She is banking on the public wanting to move on even if the Deal is flawed.

Nobody actually wants the deal, this is the thing.

Remainers want to stay in. The deal falls short of that. Leavers apparently want out of the Customs Union, the Single Market, the ECJ and Freedom of Movement. The deal falls short of that.

So yes, May is probably hoping that people have either had enough or are so fatigued by the brobdingnaggian levels of political farce of the past 2.5 years that she can get her deal past the House of Commons with enough MPs voting to avert economic ruin.

A Dub in Glasgo

She wants the public to support her deal but refuses to actually let the public decide - this is the kind of stuff the media should be asking rather than facilitating a smokescreen

This debate is meaningless as it is between the PM and the leader of the opposition (who actually supports Brexit) and the proper place for it is in Westminster as she is only allowing MPs to vote on the deal

Leroy42

What exactly is this debate supposed to achieve. Both these people want Brexit, so it is talking about what type of Brexit, a Crash out of TM Deal.

But Corbyn is totally unclear about what he wants, and totally conflicted with many in his party. So little debate about the actual deal, or even Brexit, TM will focus on the divisions within Labour and try to get Corbyn to finally lay out a position, which of course she will then attack.

A pointless exercise, which will in no way generate any actual info. TM is clearly trying to try to get Corbyn to agree that TM deal is the best on offer and that No Deal is not an option. She needs Labour support and this is a way of forcing Labour into giving it to them.

Its well played by TM (who of course refused to debate for the GE) but not sure why Labour didn't shoot this down from the off.

ancapailldorcha

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

She wants the public to support her deal but refuses to actually let the public decide - this is the kind of stuff the media should be asking rather than facilitating a smokescreen

This debate is meaningless as it is between the PM and the leader of the opposition (who actually supports Brexit) and the proper place for it is in Westminster as she is only allowing MPs to vote on the deal

The least trusted media in Europe is directly responsible for this mess. The tiny few oligarchs who control virtually all of it want Brexit and so are hardly likely to want the commoners to have any more choice in the matter given that they surprisingly voted the right way the first time.

Water John

There will be 6 amendments allowed by Bercow prior to the main vote. So she's not getting her way on that.
Whiles't it won't get the backing of a majority, many believe that Corbyn's amendment will get the highest vote.

RobMc59

Leroy42 wrote: »

What exactly is this debate supposed to achieve. Both these people want Brexit, so it is talking about what type of Brexit, a Crash out of TM Deal.

But Corbyn is totally unclear about what he wants, and totally conflicted with many in his party. So little debate about the actual deal, or even Brexit, TM will focus on the divisions within Labour and try to get Corbyn to finally lay out a position, which of course she will then attack.

A pointless exercise, which will in no way generate any actual info. TM is clearly trying to try to get Corbyn to agree that TM deal is the best on offer and that No Deal is not an option. She needs Labour support and this is a way of forcing Labour into giving it to them.

Its well played by TM (who of course refused to debate for the GE) but not sure why Labour didn't shoot this down from the off.

Labour don't need to shoot TM down over refusing to debate prior to the GE-her arrogant,high handed attitude speaks volumes in it's self.

LeinsterDub

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

I have no idea what this is trying to achieve

It's fairly simple to settle for once and for all if they get punched in the face or kicked in the crotch

Water John

The correct quote is 'punched in the face or your leg sawn off'.
You'll only recover from one. Though never fancied a kick in the nuts as an option, myself any time.

Professor Moriarty

Water John wrote: »

The correct quote is 'punched in the face or your leg sawn off'.
You'll only recover from one. Though never fancied a kick in the nuts as an option, myself any time.

A rather apt quote from Mike Tyson: "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth."

Tell me how

Enzokk wrote: »

Now if there were a second referendum I would not want James O'Brien fighting my side for me as he can be abrasive but that doesn't mean he is not stating the facts. The people will refuse to believe it and will continue double down that they are correct and the other side is wrong.

It really has been an eyeopener the way so many people become entrenched in their views. I suspect that a large motivation for this is simply to avoid admitting that they were wrong. I also think that it is likely that these exist on the remain side as well as the leave just in this instance the evidence is suggesting the leavers are the ones not facing up to the realities.

This, to my mind, makes what the likes of Cambridge Analytica and Steve Bannon were (are) up to incredibly dangerous. If they can get to people, and form their opinions before facts are revealed, then they are more than 90% of the way there.

Other governments and societies should take heed to this and recognize that you cannot just assume people will recognize that things are going pretty well while other bodies are whispering in their ear that they are not.

Maybe Leo recognized this with the expenditure on PR while he is in power (a totally separate and wide ranging topic I know).

Ireland will be blamed for a lot of this I reckon. It came up over beers the other evening with some of the English lads complaining.

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

What exactly is this debate supposed to achieve. Both these people want Brexit, so it is talking about what type of Brexit, a Crash out of TM Deal.

But Corbyn is totally unclear about what he wants, and totally conflicted with many in his party. So little debate about the actual deal, or even Brexit, TM will focus on the divisions within Labour and try to get Corbyn to finally lay out a position, which of course she will then attack.

A pointless exercise, which will in no way generate any actual info. TM is clearly trying to try to get Corbyn to agree that TM deal is the best on offer and that No Deal is not an option. She needs Labour support and this is a way of forcing Labour into giving it to them.

Its well played by TM (who of course refused to debate for the GE) but not sure why Labour didn't shoot this down from the off.

I actually think it is a logical move by May. She is counting on Corbyn having to either admit the deal is acceptable or show his hand that his party does not have any alternative that is workable.

This might show Labour that they are not in a strong position should there be a GE and so some might reconsider May's offering.

That being said, if Corbyn sticks to the ludicrous position that they could negotiate with the EU for an improved deal if they had the chance, then it probably will end up in the stalemate expected even though there is no time for a GE and renegotiation before the 29th of March.

Tell me how

Deleted User wrote: »

Ireland will be blamed for a lot of this I reckon. It came up over beers the other evening with some of the English lads complaining.

Blamed by who? In what context were some of the English lads speaking? Were they asked to defend that position?

Do we need to send James O'Brien to take them for a pint?

Water John

Corbyn is putting forward a permanent CU as his main plank. I'm sure the EU would extend Art 50 to discuss a closer Deal. TM's Deal is as far as the limit of what the EU will allow, anything less than that would be preferred and would require little time, a few months.

Tell me how

Tell me how wrote: »

Blamed by who? In what context were some of the English lads speaking? Were they asked to defend that position?

Do we need to send James O'Brien to take them for a pint?

Blamed for the backstop stuff resulting in this. I didn't bother saying much. I only talk politics with one friend, a former Brexiter and leave voter, as it happens.

Tell me how

Deleted User wrote: »

Blamed for the backstop stuff resulting in this. I didn't bother saying much. I only talk politics with one friend, a former Brexiter and leave voter, as it happens.

Did they say what they think should have been done instead of the backstop?

A Dub in Glasgo

Tell me how wrote: »

Did they say what they think should have been done instead of the backstop?

In my experience those that berate Ireland for this have extremely poor understanding of the situation and make continual statements that it would be the EU putting up a hard border as the UK will leave the border open. I point out to them that is not compatible with 'taking back control of our borders'. They are cannon fodder for anyone with a bit of understanding of the situation

Tell me how

It seems the most prescient argument at the moment is which channel will hold the debate.

BBC News

Mr Corbyn claimed he preferred ITV's bid because the BBC plan clashed with the final of I'm A Celebrity... Get Me Out Of Here!

"I want to watch it myself," he said.

A, Should this not be something which is Broadcast on any channel which wishes to show it?
B, It will be interesting if the BBC do host it given the strong and growing accusations of bias.
C, The selection of the chair of the debate will be key
D, Were Channel 4/Sky not in the mix for hosting?
E, If Corbyn did make the point above about the final of IACGMOOH, is it not another example of shockingly blase attitude to the whole thing, even if he was making a joke?

Harry Palmr

Sky would be pointless - Pay channel which more people do not have than do (we forget this in Ireland where pay cable and Sky sat are ubiquitous)

It has to be on BBC One or ITV.