Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Ultimate Seduction · 10-10-2018 12:25am

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

I'm afraid with every passing hour the chances are receding

Listening to Eilish Dillon on the 9.30 RTE forecast and the damaging gusts are mentioned for the northwest. Now we're 2 days out so there is room for change.

However i think the days of the October 15th 1987 storm in the UK sneaking up on us are over. Met Science has come on in leaps and bounds since then.

Didn't Darwin in 2014 kind of sneak up on us?

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 12:41am

Last frame of the 18Z ARPEGE is a massive tease:

But it's definitely favouring a direct hit from the strong winds on the south-eastern quadrant of the storm. 00Z of that will be very interesting.

Something to keep an eye on, even if these winds don't come onshore as much, they have the potential to amplify storm surge, and they seem to coinciding with high tides for places like Bantry.

Larbre34 · 10-10-2018 12:43am

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Didn't Darwin in 2014 kind of sneak up on us?

No. It was progged from - 6 days and mentions began in forecast at about - 4 days. At - 2 days the impact potential was widespread in the media and weather and emergency coordination services began intensive monitoring and issuing alerts, although Red Alert for the SW didnt issue until - 6 hrs. Gusts of 160 kph were alerted and reached 158 overland and 178 offshore. Overall it was a decent forecasting job and as it was still deep in winter I don't think there's any sense that Darwin sneaked up.

uck51js9zml2yt · 10-10-2018 12:46am

pad199207 wrote: »

I’m in Achill Thursday and Friday :-o

Don't forget to bring s very big kite

Mount Vesuvius · 10-10-2018 3:08am

I think people should just prepare for at least 100kph gusts fairly widespread. Trees still got a lot of leaves and with poor summer rooting.They've also been weakened by Storm Ali.
This storm should be a tad stronger countrywide so prepare for lots of power outages.

5km NMM showing at least 100kph gusts and more ,big wind field but looks to pass fairly quickly, then the deluge.

M.T. Cranium · 10-10-2018 5:27am

GFS 00z has downgraded almost to the previous ECM levels.

GEM 00z goes into a high intensity, high impact track down into the 940s (942 on the higher resolution RGEM which cuts off at 48h and 15W). The 500 mb depiction is very intense looking at 48h. If this one verified, red alert certain.

Arpege 00z still looks quite strong. Mostly orange rather than red potential on this solution, but not a glancing blow by any means.

So the jury is still out on this awaiting the ECM latest thoughts.

Graces7 · 10-10-2018 6:48am

Thanks everyone for all the dedicated work...drinking in the sweet utter silence here after 72 hours of gales and deluges. At least the coming one will be short.

Villain · 10-10-2018 7:01am

Yep thankfully GFS has moved more inline with ECMWF and keeps most damaging gusts offshore.

Only question is will ECMWF stay with that track in next update?

ICON and ARPEGE still further east, looking better but could change again.

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1049901776290402304?s=21

ninebeanrows · 10-10-2018 7:11am

Yes as we are moving to shorter timeframes models are getting a handle on the deepening occurring rapidly in a very short time period which makes the storm take a turn northwards sooner.

UK GM and EC have a very deep low well off the west coast.

screamer · 10-10-2018 7:52am

What times do the various models roll out, so that we have a better idea of when to check in on the thread for updates?

coillsaille · 10-10-2018 8:01am

screamer wrote: »

What times do the various models roll out, so that we have a better idea of when to check in on the thread for updates?

Courtesy of MJohnston:

https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com

Times in UTC so add one hour.

screamer · 10-10-2018 8:04am

coillsaille wrote: »

screamer wrote: »

What times do the various models roll out, so that we have a better idea of when to check in on the thread for updates?

Courtesy of MJohnston:

https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com

So thanks
From that looks like best times when most models run are just after 10am, 4pm and 10pm.

screamer · 10-10-2018 8:07am

Can't edit last post, times plus one hour then 11am, 5pm and 11pm

Meteorite58 · 10-10-2018 8:28am

ECM initially very strong winds in the SW early morning ( up to 130 on coasts ( maybe a bit more on ), 100 -110 inland , ) and S ( Gusts coast initially 110 to120 km/h, 100-110 km/h inland) , strong winds sweeping overland across the country (Gusts 80-100 km/h ). Possible quite windy in the W for a time before winds quickly move on. In general keeping the strongest winds well out to sea.

ARPEGE similar but showing stronger winds more so up along the Atlantic seaboard and the W, NW showing stormy conditions overland, ICON the same and both showing storm on a closer track. GFS initially strong but after keeping bulk of strong winds offshore.

Not resolved yet but would appear more of a Westward shift to me, at least avoiding the most extreme winds.

On to the next runs.

Meteorite58 · 10-10-2018 8:29am

Meteorite58 · 10-10-2018 8:30am

Gusts

KingdomRushed · 10-10-2018 8:30am

Yes, the storm looks more severe than ever on ECM, absolutely vicious but thankfully out at sea. If the ECM bombing depression was directly over us on Friday there would be serious damage and injury country wide!

ZX7R · 10-10-2018 8:34am

Meteoroit58
Do you expect too see any inbeded thunderstorm activity??

Meteorite58 · 10-10-2018 8:35am

For comparison.

Gusts

10-10-2018 8:35am

Really nasty on the 0Z ECM at +48 hrs. But keeps far enough away I think.

Meteorite58 · 10-10-2018 8:39am

ZX7R wrote: »

Meteoroit58
Do you expect too see any inbeded thunderstorm activity??

Yes the initial front should be interesting as it sweeps across the country. Will look closer at it later.

jh79 · 10-10-2018 8:51am

Is a Red warning for Galway still on the cards?

ZX7R · 10-10-2018 8:52am

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yes the initial front should be interesting as it sweeps across the country. Will look closer at it later.

Thank you was looking at the charts looking interesting for sure .
To my less experienced eye

Pangea · 10-10-2018 8:56am

MT said likely to be alert situation in West Munster and Connacht, is it not looking as bad in Ulster?

Mount Vesuvius · 10-10-2018 9:03am

The knuckles of the "closed fist"(low centre) look like hitting us , so whilst a glancing blow,it's still a blow.

Wave of potential Storm Calum entering Atlantic now and riding the jet stream.

Villain · 10-10-2018 9:29am

The Finish HIRLAM which has a resolution of 7.5km

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1049939851343204352?s=21

Daffodil.d · 10-10-2018 9:30am

So is the storm on Friday Storm Leslie or storm Callum?

Villain · 10-10-2018 9:34am

Daffodil.d wrote: »

So is the storm on Friday Storm Leslie or storm Callum?

Neither yet but if named it will be Callum, Leslie is hanging around West of Spain and Africa for next few days.

Neilw · 10-10-2018 9:43am

I thought this was the best place to ask, if not please delete my post...what are the chances of a dry day tomorrow?
Have some building work going on and the lads are hoping to pour concrete outside.

Thanks

Sycamore Tree · 10-10-2018 9:50am

Neilw wrote: »

I thought this was the best place to ask, if not please delete my post...what are the chances of a dry day tomorrow?
Have some building work going on and the lads are hoping to pour concrete outside.

Thanks

No idea what your location is but...

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

TOMORROW - Thursday 11th October
Thursday: Rather cloudy and breezy on Thursday morning with fresh and gusty southeast winds veering southwest. There will be dry periods in places, but persistent rain in the southwest and west will become widespread during the morning with heavy falls in some parts and the risk of isolated thunderstorms. Brighter conditions with showers will follow from the southwest during the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 13 to 16 degrees Celsius.

Neilw · 10-10-2018 10:17am

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

No idea what your location is but...

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

TOMORROW - Thursday 11th October
Thursday: Rather cloudy and breezy on Thursday morning with fresh and gusty southeast winds veering southwest. There will be dry periods in places, but persistent rain in the southwest and west will become widespread during the morning with heavy falls in some parts and the risk of isolated thunderstorms. Brighter conditions with showers will follow from the southwest during the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 13 to 16 degrees Celsius.

Sorry should have stated, north Dublin.
Thanks for the reply.

Akrasia · 10-10-2018 10:26am

The lowest pressure recorded in Ireland for October is 957.5hPa.

Some of these charts are showing this record being broken where the low tracks furthest east.

Its a nasty storm, its just a matter of luck whether it tracks damaging winds over land or keeps them out to sea

Sycamore Tree · 10-10-2018 10:38am

Neilw wrote: »

Sorry should have stated, north Dublin.
Thanks for the reply.

No worries.

This regional forecast will be more accurate.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/dublin

Not a great morning for pouring a raft.

Mount Vesuvius · 10-10-2018 10:57am

Could be actually dodging this bullet due to rapid intensification sending it North early.

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 11:10am

Orange level warnings now issued by Met E

aisling86 · 10-10-2018 11:10am

Two orange warnings, are they anticipating the west coast counties going red?

pad199207 · 10-10-2018 11:11am

Status Orange - Wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork and Waterford

Strong winds associated with Storm Callum, coinciding with high spring tides will affect Ireland on Thursday night and Friday morning.

Winds will be strongest overnight and early on Friday, gusting between 110 and 130 km/h at coasts.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Valid from Thursday 11 October 2018 22:00 to Friday 12 October 2018 09:00

Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Clare and Kerry

Strong winds associated with Storm Callum, coinciding with high spring tides will affect Ireland on Thursday night and Friday morning.

Winds will be strongest overnight and early on Friday, gusting between 110 and 130 km/h at coasts.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Valid from Thursday 11 October 2018 22:00 to Friday 12 October 2018 12:00

Weepsie · 10-10-2018 11:13am

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

Could be actually dodging this bullet due to rapid intensification sending it North early.

This, followed by this...

pad199207 wrote: »

Orange level warnings now issued by Met E

made me chuckle. Sorry for being OT.

I don't know what I'm looking at, but i'm finding this fascinating (and leaving the bike at home on Friday morning)

Sycamore Tree · 10-10-2018 11:29am

aisling86 wrote: »

Two orange warnings, are they anticipating the west coast counties going red?

My hunch is that it will stay Orange. The storm seems to be tracking more to the west and it would be advised not to throw around Red warnings without due cause. Ali was certainly a Red in Galway but mainly because of the trees were in full leaf. They are far from full leaf now (probably 40% of what they were during Ali). The ash trees barely have any leaves and they fall easily.

up for anything · 10-10-2018 11:35am

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Not a great morning for pouring a raft.

At least it'll come in handy if it floods.

Sorry, Neil. We were lucky doing our one years back. The one dry day that week.

Dickerty · 10-10-2018 11:37am

Considering the clean-up after Ali hasn't been done (every morning, I cycle past 4 small trees collapsed into the Tolka in Griffith Park), I would think we'll see a lot of weakened trees and branches finished off...

dmc17 · 10-10-2018 11:55am

aisling86 wrote: »

Two orange warnings, are they anticipating the west coast counties going red?

Looks like a duplicate entry on the old site

GoneHome · 10-10-2018 11:58am

dmc17 wrote: »

Looks like a duplicate entry on the old site

It's on the new site as well

eigrod · 10-10-2018 12:06pm

GoneHome wrote: »

It's on the new site as well

One is until 9am, the other until 12 noon - I guess that's why there's 2.

Mount Vesuvius · 10-10-2018 12:07pm

GFS mean.

Ha , when I said dodge a bullit I was talking about the strongest winds staying offshore. It will still get windy but not might have been if it stays on this course.

dacogawa · 10-10-2018 12:24pm

The gusts are still looking mighty strong at 9am pretty much everywhere on ARPEGE, they might extend the orange warming on the east coast later, probably don't want to call it too early otherwise people won't go to work. Going to be a fun rush hour...

arpegeuk-11-50-0.png?10-13

MJohnston · 10-10-2018 12:55pm

Is this Forecaster's Commentary on ME website new?

https://www.met.ie/forecasters-commentary

Some frames from their HARMONIE:

Mount Vesuvius · 10-10-2018 12:59pm

If Harmonie is correct, which I suspect it will be. We have escaped Red level alert

ninebeanrows · 10-10-2018 1:05pm

The wind gusts being progged by pretty much all models for the south -southeasterly associated with the frontal passage are some of the strongest I've seen for such a setup.

nmmuk-11-52-0.png?10-07

Will be interested to see if the numbers materialise.

The passage of the frontal triple point across the country Friday AM could be a focus for some very damaging wind gusts and squalls.

Mount Vesuvius · 10-10-2018 1:16pm

The not very reliable Navgem shows twins.

Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST