Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

mickger844posts

Although the ECM is further West than the other models, its still showing gusts to 100km/h in a wide area of the country albeit within just a six hour timefame.
I would always trust the ECM over any of the other models in this type of scenario. Still all to play for but thankfully it looks like the severe intense storm will stay offshore.

Oscar Bravo

Met eireann Advisory updated with just west and north west coasts mentioned for damaging gusts.

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland
A spell of wet and very windy, possibly stormy, weather is expected on Thursday night/ Friday morning as a deep depression tracks Northwards to the West of Ireland.There is the risk of damaging gusts, especially along the West and Northwest coast.
There is the also the risk of coastal flooding due to high tides and surge.

Later Friday and continuing into Saturday there is the potential for some high totals of rainfall and flooding due to another area of low pressure and series of weather fronts., with the East and South particularly at risk.
Issued:
Tuesday 09 October 2018 19:00

MJohnston

thomil wrote: »

I thought they were using a locally hosted HIRLAM instance for short range forecasts up to 48 hours, and rely on ECMWF for longer forecasts? Met Éireann is certainly listed as such on the HIRLAM consortium website.

Looks like they use both actually:
https://www.met.ie/education/how-met-eireann-produces-a-forecast

At Met Éireann we run both the Harmonie and HirlamNumerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. They model the atmosphere using the primitive equations of meteorology.

xii

MJohnston wrote: »

A version of the HARMONIE model that isn't available for public consumption, sadly.

Sounds a bit Soviet Republic, why so secretive.

MJohnston

xii wrote: »

Sounds a bit Soviet Republic, why so secretive.

Nothing sinister, there are just some models that aren't visible to the public, because they're licensed out or proprietary or whatever.



The Met Eireann mobile app does have some of the outputs of this model visible, but they're not particularly well presented.

Any chance of a red warning then? Friday working from home would be nice haha

Oscar Bravo

Low pressure well out to the west on the chart on the Rte1 9.30 forecast just there. looking now like a north west coastal event for the very strong gusts.

Met E following the less threatening ECM guidance with their latest forecast there after the 9pm news? 'Very windy with a risk of storm force winds in parts of the NW'.

Defaulter1831

Deleted User wrote: »

Any chance of a red warning then? Friday working from home would be nice haha

I'm afraid with every passing hour the chances are receding

Listening to Eilish Dillon on the 9.30 RTE forecast and the damaging gusts are mentioned for the northwest. Now we're 2 days out so there is room for change.

However i think the days of the October 15th 1987 storm in the UK sneaking up on us are over. Met Science has come on in leaps and bounds since then.

Meteorite58

ICON- EU 18Z shifted a bit W on the latest run, can compare with the 12Z. Still widespread strong winds and packing a punch along the Atlantic Seaboard and especially the W NW and N. Is the Westward drift going to continue . ICON known to overdo the wind speeds a bit.

dacogawa

New GFs

Old GFS


Not much difference, a few miles more northerly, so probably moving a bit faster...

pauldry

West Coast and Northwest battered.

Rest of country just a windy day with high tides

However....

plenty of weather
Tomorrow 21c
Thursday breezy and wet (boring)
Friday Storm Callum
Friday evening Floods in parts with 40mm of rain until Saturday

Meteorite58

Shifted a bit more West I would reckon, a bit less wind speed, getting more in line with the ECM now perhaps.

IMO Currently looking at widespread gusts over 90 to 100km/h, 120Km/h 130km/h along SW, W, NW coasts perhaps, maybe a bit more on coastal fringes.

skeleton_boy

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Ah the utterly useless yellow warning - aka "I'm not even going to pack the trampoline away"

It's not a warning, it's an advisory. I.e keep an eye on the forecast regularly for updates. These are typically issued in advance of systems that have the potential to become significant weather events.

Far from useless for any farmers or people living in remote locations etc.

dacogawa

Tides will be on their way out in Dublin at the peak of it, and heading back in after it moves on, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't even lock down any of the flood defenses.

https://www.tide-forecast.com/locations/Dublin-Ireland/tides/latest

Sycamore Tree

There is a real sense of disappointment on this thread now. People wanted Red!

pauldry

Think the High tomorrow is shoving it further West in the long run but the core of strong winds will be touching Ireland so it will be quite stormy and disruptive Friday morning W and NW

Fitzo123

Still reckon there's a good chance of a red warning for W/NW...

joeysoap

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

I'm afraid with every passing hour the chances are receding

Listening to Eilish Dillon on the 9.30 RTE forecast and the damaging gusts are mentioned for the northwest. Now we're 2 days out so there is room for change.

However i think the days of the October 15th 1987 storm in the UK sneaking up on us are over. Met Science has come on in leaps and bounds since then.

I really don’t know why anyone would be disappointed if a storm wasn’t as strong as initially feared.

Every recent storm in Ireland caused deaths. The last one killed a forestry worker in Slieve Gullion forest park, Ophelia caused 3 by falling trees.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 18Z just out to +60 hrs and going against the trend bringing the storm closer to Ireland and looking very strong.

ARPEGE did well with Storm Ali. The High Res models will tell more tomorrow.

Ultimate Seduction

Defaulter1831 wrote: »

I'm afraid with every passing hour the chances are receding

Listening to Eilish Dillon on the 9.30 RTE forecast and the damaging gusts are mentioned for the northwest. Now we're 2 days out so there is room for change.

However i think the days of the October 15th 1987 storm in the UK sneaking up on us are over. Met Science has come on in leaps and bounds since then.

Didn't Darwin in 2014 kind of sneak up on us?

MJohnston

Last frame of the 18Z ARPEGE is a massive tease:



But it's definitely favouring a direct hit from the strong winds on the south-eastern quadrant of the storm. 00Z of that will be very interesting.

Something to keep an eye on, even if these winds don't come onshore as much, they have the potential to amplify storm surge, and they seem to coinciding with high tides for places like Bantry.

Larbre34

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Didn't Darwin in 2014 kind of sneak up on us?

No. It was progged from - 6 days and mentions began in forecast at about - 4 days. At - 2 days the impact potential was widespread in the media and weather and emergency coordination services began intensive monitoring and issuing alerts, although Red Alert for the SW didnt issue until - 6 hrs. Gusts of 160 kph were alerted and reached 158 overland and 178 offshore. Overall it was a decent forecasting job and as it was still deep in winter I don't think there's any sense that Darwin sneaked up.

uck51js9zml2yt

pad199207 wrote: »

I’m in Achill Thursday and Friday :-o

Don't forget to bring s very big kite

Mount Vesuvius

I think people should just prepare for at least 100kph gusts fairly widespread. Trees still got a lot of leaves and with poor summer rooting.They've also been weakened by Storm Ali.
This storm should be a tad stronger countrywide so prepare for lots of power outages.

5km NMM showing at least 100kph gusts and more ,big wind field but looks to pass fairly quickly, then the deluge.

M.T. Cranium

GFS 00z has downgraded almost to the previous ECM levels.

GEM 00z goes into a high intensity, high impact track down into the 940s (942 on the higher resolution RGEM which cuts off at 48h and 15W). The 500 mb depiction is very intense looking at 48h. If this one verified, red alert certain.

Arpege 00z still looks quite strong. Mostly orange rather than red potential on this solution, but not a glancing blow by any means.

So the jury is still out on this awaiting the ECM latest thoughts.

Graces7

Thanks everyone for all the dedicated work...drinking in the sweet utter silence here after 72 hours of gales and deluges. At least the coming one will be short.

Villain

Yep thankfully GFS has moved more inline with ECMWF and keeps most damaging gusts offshore.

Only question is will ECMWF stay with that track in next update?

ICON and ARPEGE still further east, looking better but could change again.

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1049901776290402304?s=21

ninebeanrows

Yes as we are moving to shorter timeframes models are getting a handle on the deepening occurring rapidly in a very short time period which makes the storm take a turn northwards sooner.

UK GM and EC have a very deep low well off the west coast.

screamer

What times do the various models roll out, so that we have a better idea of when to check in on the thread for updates?