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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Meteorite58

MOD NOTE:

This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

Thank You.

Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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coillsaille

screamer wrote: »

What times do the various models roll out, so that we have a better idea of when to check in on the thread for updates?

Courtesy of MJohnston:

https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com

Times in UTC so add one hour.

screamer

coillsaille wrote: »

screamer wrote: »

What times do the various models roll out, so that we have a better idea of when to check in on the thread for updates?

Courtesy of MJohnston:

https://weather.thedeskofmatthew.com

So thanks
From that looks like best times when most models run are just after 10am, 4pm and 10pm.

screamer

Can't edit last post, times plus one hour then 11am, 5pm and 11pm

Meteorite58

ECM initially very strong winds in the SW early morning ( up to 130 on coasts ( maybe a bit more on ), 100 -110 inland , ) and S ( Gusts coast initially 110 to120 km/h, 100-110 km/h inland) , strong winds sweeping overland across the country (Gusts 80-100 km/h ). Possible quite windy in the W for a time before winds quickly move on. In general keeping the strongest winds well out to sea.

ARPEGE similar but showing stronger winds more so up along the Atlantic seaboard and the W, NW showing stormy conditions overland, ICON the same and both showing storm on a closer track. GFS initially strong but after keeping bulk of strong winds offshore.

Not resolved yet but would appear more of a Westward shift to me, at least avoiding the most extreme winds.

On to the next runs.

Meteorite58

KingdomRushed

Yes, the storm looks more severe than ever on ECM, absolutely vicious but thankfully out at sea. If the ECM bombing depression was directly over us on Friday there would be serious damage and injury country wide!

Meteorite58

Gusts

ZX7R

Meteoroit58
Do you expect too see any inbeded thunderstorm activity??

[Deleted User]

Really nasty on the 0Z ECM at +48 hrs. But keeps far enough away I think.

Meteorite58

For comparison.

Gusts

Meteorite58

ZX7R wrote: »

Meteoroit58
Do you expect too see any inbeded thunderstorm activity??

Yes the initial front should be interesting as it sweeps across the country. Will look closer at it later.

[Deleted User]

Is a Red warning for Galway still on the cards?

ZX7R

Meteorite58 wrote: »

Yes the initial front should be interesting as it sweeps across the country. Will look closer at it later.

Thank you was looking at the charts looking interesting for sure .
To my less experienced eye

Pangea

MT said likely to be alert situation in West Munster and Connacht, is it not looking as bad in Ulster?

Mount Vesuvius

The knuckles of the "closed fist"(low centre) look like hitting us , so whilst a glancing blow,it's still a blow.

Wave of potential Storm Calum entering Atlantic now and riding the jet stream.

Villain

The Finish HIRLAM which has a resolution of 7.5km

https://twitter.com/carlowweather/status/1049939851343204352?s=21

Daffodil.d

So is the storm on Friday Storm Leslie or storm Callum?

Villain

Daffodil.d wrote: »

So is the storm on Friday Storm Leslie or storm Callum?

Neither yet but if named it will be Callum, Leslie is hanging around West of Spain and Africa for next few days.

Neilw

I thought this was the best place to ask, if not please delete my post...what are the chances of a dry day tomorrow?
Have some building work going on and the lads are hoping to pour concrete outside.

Thanks

Sycamore Tree

Neilw wrote: »

I thought this was the best place to ask, if not please delete my post...what are the chances of a dry day tomorrow?
Have some building work going on and the lads are hoping to pour concrete outside.

Thanks

No idea what your location is but...

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

TOMORROW - Thursday 11th October
Thursday: Rather cloudy and breezy on Thursday morning with fresh and gusty southeast winds veering southwest. There will be dry periods in places, but persistent rain in the southwest and west will become widespread during the morning with heavy falls in some parts and the risk of isolated thunderstorms. Brighter conditions with showers will follow from the southwest during the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 13 to 16 degrees Celsius.

Neilw

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

No idea what your location is but...

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/national-forecast

TOMORROW - Thursday 11th October
Thursday: Rather cloudy and breezy on Thursday morning with fresh and gusty southeast winds veering southwest. There will be dry periods in places, but persistent rain in the southwest and west will become widespread during the morning with heavy falls in some parts and the risk of isolated thunderstorms. Brighter conditions with showers will follow from the southwest during the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 13 to 16 degrees Celsius.

Sorry should have stated, north Dublin.
Thanks for the reply.

Akrasia

The lowest pressure recorded in Ireland for October is 957.5hPa.

Some of these charts are showing this record being broken where the low tracks furthest east.

Its a nasty storm, its just a matter of luck whether it tracks damaging winds over land or keeps them out to sea

Sycamore Tree

Neilw wrote: »

Sorry should have stated, north Dublin.
Thanks for the reply.

No worries.

This regional forecast will be more accurate.

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/dublin

Not a great morning for pouring a raft.

Mount Vesuvius

Could be actually dodging this bullet due to rapid intensification sending it North early.

pad199207

Orange level warnings now issued by Met E

aisling86

Two orange warnings, are they anticipating the west coast counties going red?

pad199207

Status Orange - Wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath, Cork and Waterford

Strong winds associated with Storm Callum, coinciding with high spring tides will affect Ireland on Thursday night and Friday morning.

Winds will be strongest overnight and early on Friday, gusting between 110 and 130 km/h at coasts.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Valid from Thursday 11 October 2018 22:00 to Friday 12 October 2018 09:00

Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo, Clare and Kerry

Strong winds associated with Storm Callum, coinciding with high spring tides will affect Ireland on Thursday night and Friday morning.

Winds will be strongest overnight and early on Friday, gusting between 110 and 130 km/h at coasts.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 10:00

Valid from Thursday 11 October 2018 22:00 to Friday 12 October 2018 12:00

Sycamore Tree

aisling86 wrote: »

Two orange warnings, are they anticipating the west coast counties going red?

My hunch is that it will stay Orange. The storm seems to be tracking more to the west and it would be advised not to throw around Red warnings without due cause. Ali was certainly a Red in Galway but mainly because of the trees were in full leaf. They are far from full leaf now (probably 40% of what they were during Ali). The ash trees barely have any leaves and they fall easily.

up for anything

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Not a great morning for pouring a raft.

At least it'll come in handy if it floods.

Sorry, Neil. We were lucky doing our one years back. The one dry day that week.

Dickerty

Considering the clean-up after Ali hasn't been done (every morning, I cycle past 4 small trees collapsed into the Tolka in Griffith Park), I would think we'll see a lot of weakened trees and branches finished off...