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Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

  • 07-10-2018 10:10am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    MOD NOTE:

    This Thread is for discussing Fridays threat of severe weather only. It could get very busy and posters are reminded to stay on topic.

    In everybody's best interest their will be a zero tolerance to posters dragging the thread off topic and into disarray , posts will be removed that do not adhere to this request.

    Posters wishing to discuss matters in relation to Met Eireann can discuss it here
    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056857470 (whilst abiding by the Forum charter) and not on this thread.

    Please help keep this thread running smoothly for all by adhering with the Mod Team's request.

    Thank You.





    Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

    Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 9,392 ✭✭✭ Oscar Bravo


    Jean Byrne on the farming weather saying its looking stormy thursday night,friday and friday night. "A vicious system approaching bringing heavy rain and damaging winds."


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,975 ✭✭✭ Chris_5339762


    Looks like a bit of a bugger, although the GFS operational doesn't show it as being quite that serious.

    Only benefit vs. Ali at the moment is that the trees are very rapidly dumping leaves so we shouldn't have as many trees down.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Met Error's presentation this lunchtime managed to show us the storm graphic for about a quarter of a second! Don't they have a back button on that remote control?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Met Error's presentation this lunchtime managed to show us the storm graphic for about a quarter of a second! Don't they have a back button on that remote control?

    The bit you missed


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,309 ✭✭✭✭ starlit


    Could it be another storm brewing on its way?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    GFS has increased the wind speeds on the 6Z run ( Thurs and Sat windy in their own right with big rain potential ).

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Will see if the ECM maintains these projected winds. The wind speeds in bold white are mountain tops /high ground . At this stage looks like a slow moving Storm with widespread high wind speeds over many hours.

    On Zoom can see quite a large area across the country gusting to 120 km/h, and areas gusting to 130 and 140 km/h. Just an indication of the storms potential. The charts will change through the week getting more fine tuned as time goes on.

    Gusts

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Met Eireann
    Current indications suggest the end of the week will be extremely unsettled with high volumes of rain possible, as well as very strong winds.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ICON just coming into range.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    NWW3 UK Ireland Wave Forecast Model Maps

    High Tide Galway 07.30 - 5.21M 20.11 -5.02M
    High Tide Limerick 09.34 -6.05M 21.57 -5.92M
    High Tide Fenit 07.26 -4.49M 19.44 4.40M



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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    Would that be a red warning if it happened, I'm sure ME will be keeping a close watch on this one


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    Would that be a red warning if it happened, I'm sure ME will be keeping a close watch on this one

    The present charts would indicate for wind a very high end Orange warning for most areas and Red warning in various counties also. Probably a warning for rainfall also. Combined ? Will have to see if it continues to track close to Ireland . The trend over the last few runs has been bringing it closer and stronger.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,733 ✭✭✭ sunbeam


    7am Friday not looking good for Achill on the GFS 12z: :eek:
    http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018100712/114-289UK.GIF?07-12


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Just shows the difference in a run. GFS showing coming in earlier early morning. Big jump in wind speeds in that run.


  • Registered Users Posts: 307 ✭✭ feardeas


    The present charts would indicate for wind a very high end Orange warning for most areas and Red warning in various counties also. Probably a warning for rainfall also. Combined ? Will have to see if it continues to track close to Ireland . The trend over the last few runs has been bringing it closer and stronger.

    Just wondering if Ali would have been considered very high orange end? I am assuming it would be. Also wondering if the storm that people thought looked like happening on the Sunday looked like the current one and when did that begin to look like not happening. If this is the wrong forum to be asking questions apologies.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    EC looking nasty but centre to stay off-shore and system has matured- although stays steady at near 947hPa for a good 12-18hrs.

    Good consistency between runs now.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    12z is faster than the 0z and closer to Ireland

    Looks disruptive but fortunately it has filled to 954hPa just off the Mayo coast.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    Yikes. GFS 12z this evening.

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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 796 ✭✭✭ Sycamore Tree



    Only benefit vs. Ali at the moment is that the trees are very rapidly dumping leaves so we shouldn't have as many trees down.

    Yes indeed. The trees really have shed a lot of leaves since Ali. In fact Ali seemed to 'damage' a lot of leaves and they fell off substantially over the subsequent week. I noticed a lot of trees were half brown and half green a few days after Ali - the windward side was brown.

    An Ali-type storm now in Galway would not bring down the amount of trees or branches that came down in 3-4 hours that day.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    feardeas wrote: »
    Just wondering if Ali would have been considered very high orange end? I am assuming it would be. Also wondering if the storm that people thought looked like happening on the Sunday looked like the current one and when did that begin to look like not happening. If this is the wrong forum to be asking questions apologies.

    Yes Ali would have been high end orange for parts of the country, maybe briefly red on the Galway coast and a bit inland there.

    The storm that never materialized was set to develop off a wave with a very strong jet and some of the energy of Florence. It was showing up as a very rapidly deepening storm around the S of Ireland / UK but never got going that much until after clearing the UK and also stayed further S, low amount of rain from that as well.

    This potential storm is coming out of Canada as a LP moving along the Jet which is on the boundary between the warm and cold air, it is being modelled to deepen and gain mass and energy as it tracks across the Atlantic and when it reaches off the coast of Ireland looks set to slow as it meets the higher pressure off Europe and curve up along the W coast . Just my amateur opinion :)

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    ECM 12Z just rolling out

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,557 ✭✭✭✭ sryanbruen


    Plenty of time for changes but certainly looking like quite a significant depression for this time of the season much like Ali was in mid-September, possibly the deepest October low since 2004.

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    Weather and climate site - https://www.ukandirelandclimate.com/ (advised to view on PC, not optimised for mobile)

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Over 4 days away and will change and evolve further, ECM showing the Storm tracking closer on this run. Damaging winds with severe gusts country wide atm. ECM 12Z showing it arriving earlier also with first strong winds on the SW coast around 04.00 and not clearing the N coast until later that evening. Early days yet but purely going on this run I see around my area in Kerry could have winds gusting well over 100km/h for 7 or 8 hrs and possibly getting into high end Orange or even Red territory.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    It is so unusual to have all the models more or less in agreement of track and strength, the last time I saw such consistency was Ophelia.

    This in my opinion atm looks potentially stronger then Ophelia for many .

    UKMO

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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,860 ✭✭✭ Artane2002


    It is so unusual to have all the models more or less in agreement of track and strength, the last time I saw such consistency was Ophelia.

    This in my opinion atm looks potentially stronger then Ophelia for many .

    UKMO

    At this stage I'd take it with a pinch of salt but still one to keep an eye on. All the models were consistent on the mentioned Sunday storm a few weeks ago but that never happened. They dropped that signal two days prior to when it was meant to happen. Hopefully it doesn't happen though, I can't afford to lose another Friday :(


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    At this stage I'd take it with a pinch of salt but still one to keep an eye on. All the models were consistent on the mentioned Sunday storm a few weeks ago but that never happened. They dropped that signal two days prior to when it was meant to happen. Hopefully it doesn't happen though, I can't afford to lose another Friday

    Yes hope it downgrades too, but this is a different system being well flagged and consistently by the models now for a few days with general agreement of track and strength, bit of a difference in timing. No doubt it could change in strength or drift further North. We will see.

    Good to keep track and see how it develops.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,462 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ARPEGE 12Z just coming into view ....

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  • Registered Users Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭ ninebeanrows


    Looking interesting, definite trend eastwards but the brain and experience says that there is a significant possibility the storm centre will stay further west and well off the western sea-board.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 14,138 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Zzippy


    Yes indeed. The trees really have shed a lot of leaves since Ali. In fact Ali seemed to 'damage' a lot of leaves and they fell off substantially over the subsequent week. I noticed a lot of trees were half brown and half green a few days after Ali - the windward side was brown.

    An Ali-type storm now in Galway would not bring down the amount of trees or branches that came down in 3-4 hours that day.


    That must be a relief for you. ;)


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,403 ✭✭✭✭ dsmythy


    Looking interesting, definite trend eastwards but the brain and experience says that there is a significant possibility the storm centre will stay further west and well off the western sea-board.

    This entered my head too. It looks like a storm that belongs out in the Atlantic.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,384 ✭✭✭ JanuarySnowstor


    Ophelia seems to get mentioned now on a regular basis.
    From a Southern coast point of view (Cork area) Ophelia was a hurricane that caused horrendous damage...One in a hundred year event.
    So please guys let's park Ophelia as a very unusual hurricane that had a distinctive eye off the West coast of Spain 18 hours before it hit!!
    This is a storm that could give extreme gusts to the Northwest ( something that typically occurs 3/4 times a year)


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