Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

Meteorite58

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Have been observing the models align regards the potential for some very disturbed weather at the end of the week. ECM, GFS, UKMO and GEM all showing a very deep Storm develop towards Fri and have been bringing it closer to Ireland over the last couple of days. Most notable today is that the ECM has brought it very close and is at this early stage showing very strong winds over much of Ireland. Again to point out this is still in the unreliable timeframe but at present shows it looking more severe than Storm Ali in that there is potential for higher winds and over a much longer timeframe as the system moves slowly up off the W coast, possibly taking most of Fri into Sat to clear the country . Along with the winds there is potential for very heavy rains also. Just coming out of Spring tides by Fri but this system is showing a very low pressure of 950 hPa so an increase in the height of the tide could be expected and as there is a lot of rain forecast along W and NW counties before this Storm then run off meeting a tidal surge could cause flooding.

Have been deliberating whether to start a thread on this or not but I think it is a good opportunity to test the accuracy of the models and it has been shaping up over a few days now to be potentially a severe weather event. Nothing lost if it gets downgraded, this is a record of the guidance available about upcoming weather and an effort to piece the information together . Can change the thread title if and when requires.

Oscar Bravo

Jean Byrne on the farming weather saying its looking stormy thursday night,friday and friday night. "A vicious system approaching bringing heavy rain and damaging winds."

Chris_5339762

Looks like a bit of a bugger, although the GFS operational doesn't show it as being quite that serious.

Only benefit vs. Ali at the moment is that the trees are very rapidly dumping leaves so we shouldn't have as many trees down.

Harry Palmr

Met Error's presentation this lunchtime managed to show us the storm graphic for about a quarter of a second! Don't they have a back button on that remote control?

Storm 10

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Met Error's presentation this lunchtime managed to show us the storm graphic for about a quarter of a second! Don't they have a back button on that remote control?

The bit you missed

starlit

Could it be another storm brewing on its way?

Meteorite58

GFS has increased the wind speeds on the 6Z run ( Thurs and Sat windy in their own right with big rain potential ).

Meteorite58

Will see if the ECM maintains these projected winds. The wind speeds in bold white are mountain tops /high ground . At this stage looks like a slow moving Storm with widespread high wind speeds over many hours.

On Zoom can see quite a large area across the country gusting to 120 km/h, and areas gusting to 130 and 140 km/h. Just an indication of the storms potential. The charts will change through the week getting more fine tuned as time goes on.

Gusts

Meteorite58

Met Eireann

Current indications suggest the end of the week will be extremely unsettled with high volumes of rain possible, as well as very strong winds.

Meteorite58

ICON just coming into range.

Meteorite58

NWW3 UK Ireland Wave Forecast Model Maps

High Tide Galway 07.30 - 5.21M 20.11 -5.02M
High Tide Limerick 09.34 -6.05M 21.57 -5.92M
High Tide Fenit 07.26 -4.49M 19.44 4.40M

Storm 10

Would that be a red warning if it happened, I'm sure ME will be keeping a close watch on this one

Meteorite58

Storm 10 wrote: »

Would that be a red warning if it happened, I'm sure ME will be keeping a close watch on this one

The present charts would indicate for wind a very high end Orange warning for most areas and Red warning in various counties also. Probably a warning for rainfall also. Combined ? Will have to see if it continues to track close to Ireland . The trend over the last few runs has been bringing it closer and stronger.

sunbeam

7am Friday not looking good for Achill on the GFS 12z: :eek:
http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2018100712/114-289UK.GIF?07-12

Meteorite58

Just shows the difference in a run. GFS showing coming in earlier early morning. Big jump in wind speeds in that run.

feardeas

Meteorite58 wrote: »

The present charts would indicate for wind a very high end Orange warning for most areas and Red warning in various counties also. Probably a warning for rainfall also. Combined ? Will have to see if it continues to track close to Ireland . The trend over the last few runs has been bringing it closer and stronger.

Just wondering if Ali would have been considered very high orange end? I am assuming it would be. Also wondering if the storm that people thought looked like happening on the Sunday looked like the current one and when did that begin to look like not happening. If this is the wrong forum to be asking questions apologies.

ninebeanrows

EC looking nasty but centre to stay off-shore and system has matured- although stays steady at near 947hPa for a good 12-18hrs.

Good consistency between runs now.

ninebeanrows

12z is faster than the 0z and closer to Ireland

Looks disruptive but fortunately it has filled to 954hPa just off the Mayo coast.

Artane2002

Yikes. GFS 12z this evening.

Sycamore Tree

Chris_5339762 wrote: »

Only benefit vs. Ali at the moment is that the trees are very rapidly dumping leaves so we shouldn't have as many trees down.

Yes indeed. The trees really have shed a lot of leaves since Ali. In fact Ali seemed to 'damage' a lot of leaves and they fell off substantially over the subsequent week. I noticed a lot of trees were half brown and half green a few days after Ali - the windward side was brown.

An Ali-type storm now in Galway would not bring down the amount of trees or branches that came down in 3-4 hours that day.

Meteorite58

feardeas wrote: »

Just wondering if Ali would have been considered very high orange end? I am assuming it would be. Also wondering if the storm that people thought looked like happening on the Sunday looked like the current one and when did that begin to look like not happening. If this is the wrong forum to be asking questions apologies.

Yes Ali would have been high end orange for parts of the country, maybe briefly red on the Galway coast and a bit inland there.

The storm that never materialized was set to develop off a wave with a very strong jet and some of the energy of Florence. It was showing up as a very rapidly deepening storm around the S of Ireland / UK but never got going that much until after clearing the UK and also stayed further S, low amount of rain from that as well.

This potential storm is coming out of Canada as a LP moving along the Jet which is on the boundary between the warm and cold air, it is being modelled to deepen and gain mass and energy as it tracks across the Atlantic and when it reaches off the coast of Ireland looks set to slow as it meets the higher pressure off Europe and curve up along the W coast . Just my amateur opinion





ECM 12Z just rolling out

sryanbruen

Plenty of time for changes but certainly looking like quite a significant depression for this time of the season much like Ali was in mid-September, possibly the deepest October low since 2004.

Meteorite58

Over 4 days away and will change and evolve further, ECM showing the Storm tracking closer on this run. Damaging winds with severe gusts country wide atm. ECM 12Z showing it arriving earlier also with first strong winds on the SW coast around 04.00 and not clearing the N coast until later that evening. Early days yet but purely going on this run I see around my area in Kerry could have winds gusting well over 100km/h for 7 or 8 hrs and possibly getting into high end Orange or even Red territory.

Meteorite58

It is so unusual to have all the models more or less in agreement of track and strength, the last time I saw such consistency was Ophelia.

This in my opinion atm looks potentially stronger then Ophelia for many .

UKMO

Artane2002

Meteorite58 wrote: »

It is so unusual to have all the models more or less in agreement of track and strength, the last time I saw such consistency was Ophelia.

This in my opinion atm looks potentially stronger then Ophelia for many .

UKMO

At this stage I'd take it with a pinch of salt but still one to keep an eye on. All the models were consistent on the mentioned Sunday storm a few weeks ago but that never happened. They dropped that signal two days prior to when it was meant to happen. Hopefully it doesn't happen though, I can't afford to lose another Friday

Meteorite58

At this stage I'd take it with a pinch of salt but still one to keep an eye on. All the models were consistent on the mentioned Sunday storm a few weeks ago but that never happened. They dropped that signal two days prior to when it was meant to happen. Hopefully it doesn't happen though, I can't afford to lose another Friday

Yes hope it downgrades too, but this is a different system being well flagged and consistently by the models now for a few days with general agreement of track and strength, bit of a difference in timing. No doubt it could change in strength or drift further North. We will see.

Good to keep track and see how it develops.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE 12Z just coming into view ....

ninebeanrows

Looking interesting, definite trend eastwards but the brain and experience says that there is a significant possibility the storm centre will stay further west and well off the western sea-board.

Zzippy

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Yes indeed. The trees really have shed a lot of leaves since Ali. In fact Ali seemed to 'damage' a lot of leaves and they fell off substantially over the subsequent week. I noticed a lot of trees were half brown and half green a few days after Ali - the windward side was brown.

An Ali-type storm now in Galway would not bring down the amount of trees or branches that came down in 3-4 hours that day.

That must be a relief for you.

dsmythy

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Looking interesting, definite trend eastwards but the brain and experience says that there is a significant possibility the storm centre will stay further west and well off the western sea-board.

This entered my head too. It looks like a storm that belongs out in the Atlantic.

JanuarySnowstor

Ophelia seems to get mentioned now on a regular basis.
From a Southern coast point of view (Cork area) Ophelia was a hurricane that caused horrendous damage...One in a hundred year event.
So please guys let's park Ophelia as a very unusual hurricane that had a distinctive eye off the West coast of Spain 18 hours before it hit!!
This is a storm that could give extreme gusts to the Northwest ( something that typically occurs 3/4 times a year)

Sycamore Tree

Zzippy wrote: »

Sycamore Tree wrote: »

Yes indeed. The trees really have shed a lot of leaves since Ali. In fact Ali seemed to 'damage' a lot of leaves and they fell off substantially over the subsequent week. I noticed a lot of trees were half brown and half green a few days after Ali - the windward side was brown.

An Ali-type storm now in Galway would not bring down the amount of trees or branches that came down in 3-4 hours that day.

That must be a relief for you.

Aye it's great to shed those black spot ridden leaves. I am planning a total detox this winter to prevent another outbreak next year.

igCorcaigh

Have these strong autumn storms become more frequent? Maybe sryan might chime in.

Don't want to ignite a climate change war, just seems to me that they are compared to when I was younger.

Harry Palmr

Depends on the hurricane season - some are quiet but some are busy. (not a hurricane) Charlie in 86 is still talked about

Here is the current season image

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/14/2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/300px-2018_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

here is two years ago

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/800px-2016_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

and 2006

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/39/2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/300px-2006_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

and 86 - look how quiet it was but we still took a hit.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/01/1986_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png/800px-1986_Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map.png

Meteorite58

ICON 18Z bringing the center of the storm closer again to the country, stronger winds to the right of the center with more widespread strong winds over the country.

ICON often overplays the wind speeds a bit, nevertheless this looks very severe.

Gusts



Mean wind speeds

Meteorite58

The storm en route Thurs showing 45 to 65 Kt barbs . Mean speeds.

NOAA

ninebeanrows

Great posts Meteorite as usual

Any chance you could remove the Joint Cyclone Center tweet? It is purporting to be an official source but actually isn't - the public could be deceived. Cheers

Meteorite58

So rare to have such consistency so far out.

pauldry

Hope a speed up of this system will mean a Thursday night storm so schools n work on pay day wont be affected.

A 100mm week of rain likely here in the Northwest

airy fairy

I'm catching a ferry to UK on Weds, return Sun, I'm literally panicking, I'm not great at observing the charts, hit me with it, am I in trouble?

Larbre34

airy fairy wrote: »

I'm catching a ferry to UK on Weds, return Sun, I'm literally panicking, I'm not great at observing the charts, hit me with it, am I in trouble?

No, I'd be surprised if your sailings were disrupted on either day (unless you're booked on a fast catamaran) . The potential for very low pressure areas in the near Atlantic during the next 10 days will mean a decent swell throughout and gusty winds will contribute to choppy seas, but nothing that the ships on all the Irish sea routes don't cope with routinely in the winter months. Pop a few Kwells, you'll be golden.

airy fairy

Larbre34 wrote: »

No, I'd be surprised if your sailings were disrupted on either day (unless you're booked on a fast catamaran) . The potential for very low pressure areas in the near Atlantic during the next 10 days will mean a decent swell throughout and gusty winds will contribute to choppy seas, but nothing that the ships on all the Irish sea routes don't cope with routinely in the winter months. Pop a few Kwells, you'll be golden.

Ummmm, thanks, I think!!!!
It's the swell I'm concerned about. I've got huge anxiety on smooth crossings, I'll be a basket case on anything more.

DivingDuck

Anyone have any thoughts on whether this will still pose a problem for travel (driving, not air) on Saturday afternoon? Have to drive from Waterford back to Dublin, but could plan to stay an extra night if needed.

JCX BXC

I think people need to take the usual caveat of -'Storm systems, especially strong ones, can rapidly change in the preceding days. If you can, leave deciding on anything until the Wednesday or Thursday before. Also, I'd like to point out that a system that strikes during the day on Friday will generally speaking have little to no effect on the day before and after (in terms of further disruption).'

I normally paraphrase that for systems like this, and it applies equally now.

Meteorite58

ARPEGE looks like an average of the models this morning. Track shifted slightly W in general apart from the ICON bringing it closer to Ireland than the other models. Potentially unsettled weather to follow as wel.

Meteorite58

UKMO very similar track to the other main models.

Graces7

Last night was appalling here. Far worse then forecast? West Mayo offshore.

Altering my plans for the week..

TopOfTheHill

Apologies if this is no the right place to be asking

Due to fly out of Cork Friday morning (06:00), what are people thoughts on impact to air traffic, or is it too early to ask?

JCX BXC

TopOfTheHill wrote: »

Apologies if this is no the right place to be asking

Due to fly out of Cork Friday morning (06:00), what are people thoughts on impact to air traffic, or is it too early to ask?

Too early to pin down exact timings.

Artane2002

JCX BXC wrote: »

Too early to pin down exact timings.

This applies to anyone travelling from any airport on Friday too in case more people are curious.

Artane2002

First mention of severe gusts from Met Éireann:

Friday: Wet and very windy; southwest winds with some severe gusts during the morning. The winds will ease in the afternoon, becoming light in the evening time. Rain turning more to showers through the day.