Storm Callum - Thursday/Friday 11/12 October 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

ninebeanrows

MJohnston wrote: »

Those core winds are still impacting on the west coast, even with the core itself being far west:

Yea im sure we'll get 60-65kt gusts at Mace and Belmullet- happens many times a year

MJohnston

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Yea im sure we'll get 60-65kt gusts at Mace and Belmullet- happens many times a year

Grand, but that's not what you said. You said these were only frontal winds.

Villain

GFS subtle changes:

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1050053212525551616

Graces7

MJohnston wrote: »

Those core winds are still impacting on the west coast, even with the core itself being far west:

Indeed yes and that often gets omitted as a relevant feature. The last three days here on the wet coast we had serious gales and deluges and hardly a mention as the warnings were "marine" and "coastal" ..... where ocean meets land is a variable and potentially dangerous- if- ignored feature.

west mayo;offshore island..

Villain

Hmm HIRLAM and HARMONIE also bring heavy rain in Friday afternoon now!

GFS has Southeast rain totals back over 60mm by Sunday morning.

https://twitter.com/CarlowWeather/status/1050056515011440643

MJohnston

A few short-range model updates:

AROME 12Z:


ARPEGE 12Z:

Artane2002

**Throws up**

MÉ's forecast for Thursday night/Friday/Saturday. Unbelievable the difference a day or two can make...

Thursday Night, Friday and Saturday: Some disruptive weather is expected Thursday night and early Friday, as a very deep low pressure system tracks northward about 150 to 200 miles to the west and this also coincides with spring tides. Very heavy rain and extremely windy conditions will sweep in off the Atlantic Thursday night, possibly stormy in some west and northern coastal areas. There will be heavy possibly thundery rain in many places overnight, with strong to gale force southeasterly winds developing, giving way to squally showers and strong to gale force south or southwesterly winds by Friday morning with damaging gusts, especially in Atlantic coastal areas, so take extreme care. Coastal flooding is also likely, due to the combination of high seas, high tides, strong winds and low pressure.
However conditions should abate fairly quickly Friday afternoon with drier weather developing for a time.
Another spell of very heavy, possibly thundery rain will push northwards later Friday, and rain will be widespread on Friday night and for a time on Saturday but turning drier and fresher later in the day and overnight

Mount Vesuvius

Liz Walsh, Met Èireann says mostly concerned about the winds, storm surge with spring tides especially on Atlantic coasts

Sycamore Tree

dsmythy wrote: »

For many areas Ali hadn't made its full presence felt in the early morning. So what seemed like an ok morning turned when it came to home time for kids. This is where a lot of the complaints happened from some quarters.

People should have a chance to look out their windows this time around and assess it themselves for going to work/school.

But Ali was a morning only event. In Galway anyway. It was a brutal morning from 7am to 10am but it was relatively calm by 12 noon.

irishgeo

On null school wind map now, what's the line west of Ireland and heading up to Norway. Winds seem to doing a 90 degree turn on hitting it.

irishgeo

Never seen it on the nullschool wind map before.

HeidiHeidi

Is it a warm front? Winds always back through a warm front? (streeeetching my memory back to basic met lessons from years ago)

Hooter23

Even if the main strong winds stay out at sea I think most areas are going to experience stormy weather for a couple of hours at least as the winds in the first band of rain look fairly strong too

Discodog

What is the time difference from the Meteociel "locale" time to Irish time ? GFS seems to show a calmer "hole" for most of Ireland

Akrasia

irishgeo wrote: »

Never seen it on the nullschool wind map before.

Its wierd. The jet stream is just below this feature and flows from west to east. This is flowing from east to west so it looks like an eddy or vortex caused by the jet stream interacting with the air below

D9Male

1 hour. Meteociel gives French times, which are 1 hour ahead of Irish Times.

Discodog

D9Male wrote: »

1 hour.

ahead ?

D9Male

Yes

alentejo

Is a downgrade on the cards?

Oneiric 3

irishgeo wrote: »

On null school wind map now, what's the line west of Ireland and heading up to Norway. Winds seem to doing a 90 degree turn on hitting it.

That just marks where the primary frontal boundary lies at the moment.




It looks weird because the general synoptic pattern is unusual for the NE Atlantic region.

Meteorite58

A close up of wind gusts. Looking like a high end Orange at the moment in the SW and W IMO.

Not going to get much sleep by the looks of it!

This Zoom level has limited coverage.

SleetAndSnow

Weather warning's changed. Cork and Kerry given a separate section. Lots of different times here

Status Orange - Wind warning for Cork and Kerry
Storm Callum: Southeast winds veering southwest will gust generally between 100 and 130km/h, higher in some coastal areas and on high ground. Along with a spell of heavy rain and high tides there is a risk of coastal flooding and damage.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 19:00

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 19:00

Valid from Thursday 11 October 2018 22:00 to Friday 12 October 2018 09:00

Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway, Mayo, Sligo and Clare
Storm Callum: Southeast winds veering southwest will gust generally between 100 and 130km/h, higher in some coastal areas and on high ground. Along with a spell of heavy rain and high tides there is a risk of coastal flooding and damage.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 19:00

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 19:00

Valid from Friday 12 October 2018 00:01 to Friday 12 October 2018 13:00

Status Orange - Wind warning for Dublin, Louth, Wexford, Wicklow, Meath and Waterford
Storm Callum: South to southeast winds will gust to between 100 and 130 km/h, strongest at the coast. Along with a spell of heavy rain and high tides, there is a risk of some coastal flooding.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 19:04

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 19:04

Valid from Friday 12 October 2018 00:01 to Friday 12 October 2018 09:00

Status Yellow - Wind warning for Carlow, Kildare, Kilkenny, Laois, Longford, Offaly, Westmeath, Cavan, Monaghan, Leitrim, Roscommon, Limerick and Tipperary
Strong southeast, veering southwest, winds associated with Storm Callum will affect Ireland on Thursday night and Friday morning.

Winds will be strongest overnight and early on Friday, gusting between 90 and 110 km/h at coasts.

Issued: Wednesday 10 October 2018 11:00

Updated: Wednesday 10 October 2018 11:00

Valid from Thursday 11 October 2018 23:00 to Friday 12 October 2018 09:00

Meteorite58

A look at the SE and E, some high gusts possible. Make a difficult commute with driving rain.

This is the current guidance , could go up or down.

Gusts

Pangea

Meteorite, where are those maps available?

Meteorite58

Pangea wrote: »

Meteorite, where are those maps available?

Meteociel....ARPEGE..... Zoom dynamique....Rafales 10m ( avec valeurs )


http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/arpegezoom.php?mode=111&x=406.63&y=417.94&ech=3&zoom=0.5

Burts Bee

It's been really windy here in North Cork all day. Has that anything to do with incoming storm?

Doctors room ghost

I’ve load of hens here.some of them refuse to sleep in the shed and sleep up in a tree instead.locked them up there and they were all in the shed so they must know something we don’t.first time in months they were in the shed at night.

sryanbruen

After several downgrades, the ECM 12z has now upgraded the 24-hour rainfall totals for Friday evening into Saturday in the southeast of Ireland.

irishgeo

Any Midlands people spot seagulls. A sure sign of a bad storm when the seagulls move inland.

MJohnston

Burts Bee wrote: »

It's been really windy here in North Cork all day. Has that anything to do with incoming storm?

Not really, no. In fact the winds should actually be quite calm tomorrow in advance of the storm.