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Exit poll: The post referendum thread. No electioneering.

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    #2942
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 82,097 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    fxotoole wrote: »
    I'd love to hear what that poster who said he'd "bust a nut" today when No won is doing tonight?

    Something about renting a windowless van


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    #2943
    wexie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,480 ✭✭✭wexie


    freshpopcorn wrote: »
    I flicked on the live stream of mass there to see what the priest would say and the priest gave a sermon basically saying. You either with us or against us basically and make up your mind!

    one day they'll do that and then have a conniption when people start getting up to leave


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    #2944
    fxotoole
    Registered Users Posts: 1,661 ✭✭✭fxotoole


    My understanding is that it is restricted in the sense that abortion won't be provided in the case that the foetus is diagnosed with Downs Syndrome etc


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    #2945
    suicide_circus
    Registered Users Posts: 19,802 ✭✭✭✭suicide_circus


    fxotoole wrote: »
    My understanding is that it is restricted in the sense that abortion won't be provided in the case that the foetus is diagnosed with Downs Syndrome etc

    So it's her body her choice....until the baby has downs. At which point she's booking a Ryanair flight?

    Perfectly healthy baby's- abortion good up til 12 weeks but disabled babies are exempt from this fate?


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    #2946
    _Dara_
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,971 ✭✭✭_Dara_


    Aidric wrote: »
    The same sex marriage referendum showed the Irish electorate to be mature, fair, considerate, reflective and above all compassionate. It was the first time in our recent history a definitive statement on the conscious of the nation.

    That result gave me quiet confidence that this vote would go the same way. The no campaign was defined by fudge and obfuscation. Moreover it was spearheaded by some pretty closeted headbangers who represent an Ireland of a different era. On mature reflection the contributions of the no side would have swung any undecided voters to the yes side.

    An historic day by any benchmark. Congratulations to all those yes campaigners who led such an honest campaign.

    I hoped that would be true also but couldn’t bring myself to hope too hard.


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    #2947
    amcalester
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,121 ✭✭✭amcalester


    fxotoole wrote: »
    My understanding is that it is restricted in the sense that abortion won't be provided in the case that the foetus is diagnosed with Downs Syndrome etc

    That’s not checked for nor easily (if at all) diagnosed before 12 weeks.

    Once the pregnancy is less than 12 weeks the woman will be allowed abort once the 72 hours has lapsed.

    I’m not sure what happens if the 72 hours takes the pregnancy over the 12 week mark.

    Most will occur weeks before that though.


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    #2948
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,135 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf




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    #2949
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 82,097 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    Is it the government's position that it wants to legislate without restrictions to 12 weeks?


    This is important because if we extrapolate the figures from the UK which is 190,000 abortions per year give or take and they are supposed to have restrictions in terms of medical need (mental health etc) and we apply an even laxer regime here to 12 weeks...

    ...then that means it is very likely that we could be seeing up to 16,000 abortions per year in Ireland in, say, 10 years.

    Am I missing something or are people suggesting that Irish people are culturally so dissimilar to British that that would not be the case?

    I'm not casting aspirations by the way. I'm just teasing out from the evidence from next door and the evidence suggests that abortions are going to increase very significantly among Irish women.

    That 16,000 figure (if it came even close to it) has implications for the structure of the country's population pyramid as well which I did not see touched on at all. There is a potential serious economic cost here if we got close to that.

    I think you’ve highlighted the danger of extrapolation.

    inconvenient_truth1.jpg

    There is more data to suggest that, within some number of years depending on how the rollout of access occurs, abortion rates will reach some peak rate per 1000 live births that will never be seen again because of being coupled with greater sex education and access to contraceptives. This was the case in the US also - 7 years after Roe vs Wade and those rates we’re never seen again.

    US-abortion-rates-1960-2012.gif

    Either way you can be certain that UK figures are going to dip in the next few years.


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    #2950
    Sofiztikated
    Registered Users Posts: 6,995 ✭✭✭Sofiztikated


    My prediction for number on the first year will be ~9k.

    This will account for those that would travel anyway, those taking pills at home, those that could not otherwise access a termination, and those that will travel to the state for a termination (Northern Ireland citizens will find crossing to the border easier than getting a flight. )


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    #2951
    Overheal
    Registered Users Posts: 82,097 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    Sofiztikated wrote: »
    My prediction for number on the first year will be ~9k.

    This will account for those that would travel anyway, those taking pills at home, those that could not otherwise access a termination, and those that will travel to the state for a termination (Northern Ireland citizens will find crossing to the border easier than getting a flight. )

    I don’t think the first year will be that high unless national rollout is swift. The peak rate will be seen in a few years, not immediately. It will take time to establish regulated alternative to the online ordered pills etc. and get people over the table.


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    #2952
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    You couldn't make this up
    IkXzfac.png


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    #2953
    retro:electro
    Registered Users Posts: 21,039 ✭✭✭✭retro:electro


    F2LZ394.jpg


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    #2954
    January
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,865 ✭✭✭✭January


    retro:electro wrote: »
    F2LZ394.jpg

    Or Robert from Kilkenny... :pac:


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    #2955
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    freshpopcorn wrote: »
    the priest gave a sermon basically saying. You either with us or against us basically and make up your mind!


    Fuhrer Ratzinger was keen on this idea - a much, much smaller church of much, much crazier people.


    Pope Francis is more inclusive. I liked the smaller church Ratz had planned, because it was smaller.


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    #2956
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1000456759780298755


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    #2957
    Shurimgreat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,133 ✭✭✭Shurimgreat


    amcalester wrote: »
    That’s not checked for nor easily (if at all) diagnosed before 12 weeks.

    Once the pregnancy is less than 12 weeks the woman will be allowed abort once the 72 hours has lapsed.

    I’m not sure what happens if the 72 hours takes the pregnancy over the 12 week mark.

    Most will occur weeks before that though.

    I'm afraid it can be checked for at an early stage and the technology continues to evolve.

    http://www.irishhealth.com/article.html?id=8487


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    #2958
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Sofiztikated wrote: »
    This will account for those that would travel anyway, those taking pills at home, those that could not otherwise access a termination, and those that will travel to the state for a termination )


    What about the lady stand-up comedians who get pregnant so they can have an abortion for a laugh?


    They were apparently weighing heavily on the minds of No voters, so they must be a significant percentage.


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    #2959
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    spookwoman wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1000456759780298755


    Is that what an actual neckbeard looks like?


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    #2960
    January
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,865 ✭✭✭✭January


    Shurimgreat wrote: »
    I'm afraid it can be checked for at an early stage.

    http://www.irishhealth.com/article.html?id=8487

    It also costs 500+ euro to do here and is not offered as standard to any woman. Its also a screening test not a diagnostic test.


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    #2961
    fritzelly
    Registered Users Posts: 17,353 ✭✭✭✭fritzelly


    spookwoman wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/Independent_ie/status/1000456759780298755

    But those beards, that's what we should be talking about.


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    #2962
    spookwoman
    Registered Users Posts: 9,922 ✭✭✭spookwoman


    fritzelly wrote: »
    But those beards, that's what we should be talking about.

    download%202.jpg


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    #2963
    Fred Swanson
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,730 ✭✭✭✭Fred Swanson


    This post has been deleted.


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    #2964
    Shurimgreat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,133 ✭✭✭Shurimgreat


    January wrote: »
    It also costs 500+ euro to do here and is not offered as standard to any woman. Its also a screening test not a diagnostic test.

    Fair enough January I accept your point.


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    #2965
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Fred Swanson wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.


    Yes, but all over before 5.00 pm Monday. No court is going to entertain them.


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    #2966
    January
    Closed Accounts Posts: 23,865 ✭✭✭✭January


    Shurimgreat wrote: »
    Fair enough January I accept your point.

    Listen don't get me wrong I reckon we will have some who do the test and abort based on those results if it can be done within the 12 week time frame but these are the ones who would travel anyway and I still believe it should be made safer for those looking to access it.


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    #2967
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,311 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Fred Swanson wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    Oh i'm sure somebody that is completely unconnected to any of the campaigns will try something.


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    #2968
    Shurimgreat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,133 ✭✭✭Shurimgreat


    Fred Swanson wrote: »
    So on Monday does anyone reckon some nutjobs will be down the High Court looking to have the result overturned?

    So what if they do. Trying to deny the High Court to people now?
    Why not just lock up all the no siders?


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    #2969
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,311 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Shurimgreat wrote: »
    So what if they do. Trying to deny the high court to people now?
    Why not just lock up all the no siders? Probably easier!

    who said they wanted the high court denied to anybody? perhaps you need to lie down.


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    #2970
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Shurimgreat wrote: »
    So what if they do. Trying to deny the High Court to people now?


    Not me, happy to see them waste their money on lawyers.


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    #2971
    ohnonotgmail
    Registered Users Posts: 40,311 ✭✭✭✭ohnonotgmail


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    Not me, happy to see them waste their money on lawyers.

    well except it wont necessarily be their own money they. If the court thinks the decision is in the public interest then the government will pay their legal bills.


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