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Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

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    #602
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Calibos wrote: »
    If the forecast is correct and the winds are coming from an ENE direction then Dublin and Wicklow are in the bullseye for Streamers from the Irish Sea with the longest sea fetch which is geographically possible for us. ie. Morecambe Bay in the UK with a clear run for streamer formation all the way across the Irish Sea to us. A pure North Easterly puts us in the Snow shadow of the IOM and then a NNE puts us in the line of fire again.

    I’d expect either an ENE or NE to give max fetch in the Arklow area
    East is usually dryer but the sex in the mix this time is quite literally kinks in the flow
    You get disturbances or shallow lows developing in the flow and all previous rules go out the window


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    #603
    Snow angel
    Registered Users Posts: 61 ✭✭Snow angel


    Musicman2000 wrote: »
    It’s not going to happen like that , you are better off ignoring that chart completely.

    Sorry do you mean the blizzard won’t happen or the 850 temps won’t get back that high with snow cover?


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    #604
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    kod87 wrote: »
    would it be snowfall though with uppers of 0 to -3, the lower temps will be low but above freezing at that stage? To me it would become a wintry mess at that stage.

    Dewpoints
    Surface air temp
    Watch those

    I don’t think that low will go that far north
    I’d say it will in reality reach Dublin and no further so I’d expect an all snow event from it


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    #605
    catrat12
    Registered Users Posts: 470 ✭✭catrat12


    What are the chances of a red warning


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    #606
    Drumpot
    Registered Users Posts: 19,306 ✭✭✭✭Drumpot


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Dewpoints
    Surface air temp
    Watch those

    I don’t think that low will go that far north
    I’d say it will in reality reach Dublin and no further so I’d expect an all snow event from it

    Looks like Bettystown will once again be sheltered from the worst. Even on some of the graphs it’s shown pretty much everywhere with snow but right on the east coast getting rain or snow!


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    #607
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Dewpoints
    Surface air temp
    Watch those

    I don’t think that low will go that far north
    I’d say it will in reality reach Dublin and no further so I’d expect an all snow event from it

    Yep, the current models keeps the warm pool south and the cold pool sitting on the majority of ireland. It's a dream scenario


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    #608
    Balmed Out
    Registered Users Posts: 4,714 ✭✭✭Balmed Out


    So any word on how this will play out on the South Coast particularly clonakilty to cork city?


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    #609
    irish1967
    Registered Users Posts: 3,516 ✭✭✭irish1967


    peasant wrote: »
    The Cork snowshield is just off for a week away in the Northwest around Donegal Bay:D

    (much nicer there than Cork anyway)

    Sitting right on the edge of Donegal Bay (40ft from waters edge)
    I have the distinct feeling looking at most charts that I will be lucky to see any snow whatsoever this week.

    Am I right ?


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    #610
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,135 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Balmed Out wrote: »
    So any word on how this will play out on the South Coast particularly clonakilty to cork city?

    Nothing new other than the several comments over the last few pages.


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    #611
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Dewpoints
    Surface air temp
    Watch those

    I don’t think that low will go that far north
    I’d say it will in reality reach Dublin and no further so I’d expect an all snow event from it

    George Sunsnow is correct, also add the cold that will all ready be entrenched with possible snow cover in place and the wind coming off a very cold UK and the precipitation will also be heavy I would not worry about the upper temperature been - 3 - 5


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    #612
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Drumpot wrote: »
    Looks like Bettystown will once again be sheltered from the worst. Even on some of the graphs it’s shown pretty much everywhere with snow but right on the east coast getting rain or snow!

    I’d say all snow
    No marginality whatsoever even on the coast up there
    The airmass is likely to be freezing from cloud to ground


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    #613
    highdef
    Registered Users Posts: 6,186 ✭✭✭highdef


    catrat12 wrote: »
    What are the chances of a red warning

    Personally, I think a red warning at some stage during the coming week


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    #614
    igCorcaigh
    Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,184 Mod ✭✭✭✭igCorcaigh


    ZX7R wrote: »
    George Sunsnow is correct, also add the cold that will all ready be entrenched with possible snow cover in place and the wind coming off a very cold UK and the precipitation will also be heavy I would not worry about the upper temperature been - 3 - 5

    Ah, so it seems that the rule of adding 10C to uppers to get ground temp is very much context dependent then...


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    #615
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    irish1967 wrote: »
    Sitting right on the edge of Donegal Bay (40ft from waters edge)
    I have the distinct feeling looking at most charts that I will be lucky to see any snow whatsoever this week.

    Am I right ?

    https://twitter.com/liamdutton/status/967162216502956032


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    #616
    pad199207
    Registered Users Posts: 7,140 ✭✭✭pad199207


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    I’d say all snow
    No marginality whatsoever even on the coast up there
    The airmass is likely to be freezing from cloud to ground

    I’d be aware of marginality on the immediate coast


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    #617
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,135 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    2 days out, forecasts haven't gone haywire! Think it's safe to say that this won't be a repeat of the 2012 failed easterly.

    Personally very excited here in West Clare, I'll look at making preparations today (people here will be a little slower as they can't comprehend the difference between an event from the East vs one from the north west, the latter being the most common and most disappointing).

    Not sure what I can do ultimately. We've a gas heater that's entirely independent of electricity (it's portable and not connected to the mains), however everything else is electric, cooking, heating etc. If the power goes it's going to be fun! I'll try pick up a few foods edible without being cooked, maybe a bit of water and the other 'christmas' essentials!

    Thanks to all my usual colleagues and the mods on this forum for making the build up to this very enjoyable, (perhaps too much so!). We'll likely remember this for years to come and this thread will be confined to the archives!


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    #618
    Stephen Hawkins football boots
    Registered Users Posts: 314 ✭✭Stephen Hawkins football boots


    Dublin still on target for snow?


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    #619
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,135 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    Dublin still on target for snow?

    You'd have well heard if it wasn't being realistic!


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    #620
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    pad199207 wrote: »
    I’d be aware of marginality on the immediate coast

    In sub 520 dam ?
    Maybe 510 dam on tues and wenesday
    I don’t think so


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    #621
    noble00
    Registered Users Posts: 273 ✭✭noble00


    I think my family are finally starting to believe me can't wait to say told ya , serious note at least they are getting some supplies now, just hope no person gets hurt next week


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    #622
    Strangegravy
    Registered Users Posts: 356 ✭✭Strangegravy


    Snow angel wrote: »
    Sorry do you mean the blizzard won’t happen or the 850 temps won’t get back that high with snow cover?

    I think he meant that the chart was in FI territory, at 180hrs, so far out that the chances of that scenario happening were very unlikely anyway.

    You were right though, with that chart it could have been marginal for snow/rain in the south, but the cold that would be over us at that stage would have probably given us a better than average chance of snow.

    But most of the in the know posters on here think that the GFS was pushing that low too high anyway, so either way it looks unlikely unless it keeps on showing up on future charts to come.


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    #623
    Mafra
    Registered Users Posts: 104 ✭✭Mafra


    noble00 wrote: »
    I think my family are finally starting to believe me can't wait to say told ya , serious note at least they are getting some supplies now, just hope no person gets hurt next week

    Lots of people will get hurt if it doesn’t material I suspect..


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    #624
    gerrybhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    My better half committed the ultimate sin by telling the kids of pending snow,every five minutes it's 'Will it snow today?' ,meant to be Monday folks isn't it?


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    #625
    Snowbiee21
    Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    gerrybhoy wrote: »
    My better half committed the ultimate sin by telling the kids of pending snow,every five minutes it's 'Will it snow today?' ,meant to be Monday folks isn't it?

    Tuesday evening


  • Options
    #626
    gerrybhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    Stephen Hawkins football boots wrote: »
    Dublin still on target for snow?
    Nah get your BBQ dusted down


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    #627
    gerrybhoy
    Registered Users Posts: 510 ✭✭✭gerrybhoy


    Snowbiee21 wrote: »
    Tuesday evening
    magic,least now I might get some peace,cheers


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    #628
    RocketRaccoon
    Registered Users Posts: 4,397 ✭✭✭RocketRaccoon


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    2 days out, forecasts haven't gone haywire! Think it's safe to say that this won't be a repeat of the 2012 failed easterly.

    Personally very excited here in West Clare, I'll look at making preparations today (people here will be a little slower as they can't comprehend the difference between an event from the East vs one from the north west, the latter being the most common and most disappointing).

    Not sure what I can do ultimately. We've a gas heater that's entirely independent of electricity (it's portable and not connected to the mains), however everything else is electric, cooking, heating etc. If the power goes it's going to be fun! I'll try pick up a few foods edible without being cooked, maybe a bit of water and the other 'christmas' essentials!

    Thanks to all my usual colleagues and the mods on this forum for making the build up to this very enjoyable, (perhaps too much so!). We'll likely remember this for years to come and this thread will be confined to the archives!

    I assume Shannon will get a nice plastering aswell so?


  • Options
    #629
    ZX7R
    Registered Users Posts: 3,426 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    Ah, so it seems that the rule of adding 10C to uppers to get ground temp is very much context dependent then...

    Simple answer yes, the snow showers /streamers forecast Ed from the Monday night would be reilent on cold uppers - 8and lower, but the Friday snow would have the cold factor all ready in place, reason's given all ready, similar to a front coming from the west and giving frontal snow


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    #630
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    2 days out, forecasts haven't gone haywire! Think it's safe to say that this won't be a repeat of the 2012 failed easterly.

    Personally very excited here in West Clare, I'll look at making preparations today (people here will be a little slower as they can't comprehend the difference between an event from the East vs one from the north west, the latter being the most common and most disappointing).

    !
    Even here in the east there’s a lot of that too along the lines of ‘Shur we never got any that was forecast all winter’
    I expect they’re in for a rude awakening!


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    #631
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users Posts: 18,135 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    RocketRaccoon wrote: »
    I assume Shannon will get a nice plastering aswell so?

    Possibly, to be honest our banner county is so far west I wouldn't expect snow until I see it falling. Shannon has the advantage of getting a TAF which should give you a better idea of the snow chances nearly 24, hours out.

    If Friday stays on track you can be sure there's no avoiding it.


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