Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

NIMAN

I think to be fair, Swanner has a point.

The media do hype the weather up far too much. They are using adjectives now that simply aren't required. Its the nature of media I suppose, everything has to be bigger, better, badder, more severe, even if its not. The Indo website absolutely love talking about weather. Daily Mail thrive on it too. Everyone loves a coloured weather warning.

I have read people say this will be as bad as 2010. Really? Its going to hit -18C?

How come I watched the weather forecast last night on RTE, and they told us it might get to -3C...a massive -3C....it was the same temperature a couple of weeks ago when I was commuting home from night shifts. And there was no chaos on the roads.

I too think we are going see another anti-climax on this.

mirrorwall14

NIMAN wrote: »

I think to be fair, Swanner has a point.

The media do hype the weather up far too much. They are using adjectives now that simply aren't required. Its the nature of media I suppose, everything has to be bigger, better, badder, more severe, even if its not. The Indo website absolutely love talking about weather.

I have read people say this will be as bad as 2010. Really? Its going to hit -18C?

How come I watched the weather forecast last night on RTE, and they told us it might get to -3C...a massive -3C....it was the same temperature a couple of weeks ago when I was commuting home from night shifts. And there was no chaos on the roads.

I too think we are going see another anti-climax on this.

-18 was over lying snowfields. Until we have lying snow (and we will by all accounts) that can’t be changed

dharma200

follow these threads. Nothin more annoying than the posters who obv havent as much as looked at any charts, or the weather approaching that has already hit europe, and post about how the media hype anti climax and blah de blah.

Go look at the coming charts. There is not one iota of a doubt that some people are going to not only be at risk of loosing their life due to road conditions, massive drop in temps etc etc. but pretty much the whole country is going to have a few days of little business, little travel, and a whole lot of hassle.

This is going to affect a whole lot of people, in a negative way, an affect a whole lot of people who love these conditions in apositive way. Wether you think it is going to happen or not is totally irrelevant at this stage because it IS.

PokeHerKing

NIMAN wrote:

How come I watched the weather forecast last night on RTE, and they told us it might get to -3C...a massive -3C....it was the same temperature a couple of weeks ago when I was commuting home from night shifts. And there was no chaos on the roads.

-3 at midday. It will be a lot colder at night and colder again with snow in the mix. It's still all a little bit in FI for the real Armageddon scenario.

Met eireann are damned if the do damned if they don't. They'll issue alerts when we're on top of the event not a week out

ZX7R

PokeHerKing wrote: »

-3 at midday. It will be a lot colder at night and colder again with snow in the mix. It's still all a little bit in FI for the real Armageddon scenario.

Met eireann are damned if the do damned if they don't. They'll issue alerts when we're on top of the event not a week out

Nimam you need to look at there forcast again, - 3 was forecasted for tonight - 7from Monday night and clearly stated even Colder over any lying snow

The Bishop Basher

dharma200 wrote: »

follow these threads. Nothin more annoying than the posters who obv havent as much as looked at any charts, or the weather approaching that has already hit europe, and post about how the media hype anti climax and blah de blah.

Go look at the coming charts. There is not one iota of a doubt that some people are going to not only be at risk of loosing their life due to road conditions, massive drop in temps etc etc. but pretty much the whole country is going to have a few days of little business, little travel, and a whole lot of hassle.

This is going to affect a whole lot of people, in a negative way, an affect a whole lot of people who love these conditions in apositive way. Wether you think it is going to happen or not is totally irrelevant at this stage because it IS.

I've heard these dramatic predictions on here before countless times over many years now.

I'm not saying nothing will happen..

I'm not saying we won't get snowmageddon.. don't get me wrong, I really hope we do..

But I won't get the least bit excited till I look out the window and see at least 3cm of that beautiful white stuff falling and sticking..

Until then i'm assuming most of us will see nothing but a few very cold damp days as usual.

Villain

Swanner wrote: »

I've heard these dramatic predictions on here before countless times over many years now.

I'm not saying nothing will happen..

I'm not saying we won't get snowmageddon.. don't get me wrong, I really hope we do..

But I won't get the least bit excited till I look out the window and see at least 3cm of that beautiful white stuff falling and sticking..

Until then i'm assuming most of us will see nothing but a few very cold damp days as usual.

One question, did you hear such predictions in 2010 and how did it work out for you if you ignored them?

snowstorm445

-11 and -12 uppers flooding over the country by Monday evening on the latest GFS.

The Bishop Basher

Villain wrote: »

One question, did you hear such predictions in 2010 and how did it work out for you if you ignored them?

That was 8 years ago and it all worked out just fine even without buying tyre chain, snow shoes or a shovel..

I was driving an auto rear while drive Merc and managed to drive up Slaughter Hill in Newtown and go shooting which was heaven in the snow.

Not sure why 2010 is relevant though..

I'm not saying this won't happen. I'm sure if we all get excited enough times it will eventually come to fruition and maybe this is is it..

I'll know if I look out my window and see snow.

Drumpot

Swanner wrote: »

I've heard these dramatic predictions on here before countless times over many years now.

I'm not saying nothing will happen..

I'm not saying we won't get snowmageddon.. don't get me wrong, I really hope we do..

But I won't get the least bit excited till I look out the window and see at least 3cm of that beautiful white stuff falling and sticking..

Until then i'm assuming most of us will see nothing but a few very cold damp days as usual.

What do you think these sort of posts add to these kind of threads? You are entitled to be dubious of the event next week but you are also entitled to keep it to yourself. Better still, why come to a weather forum to piss on the information provided by people who know a lot more then most of us with your uninformed negative post?

I find most comments on this thread helpful or fun, this one I don’t see any positive that can be taken it.

km79

[quote="Swanner;106241640"

I'll know if I look out my window and see snow.[/quote]

I'm going to ignore all the charts and experts now and wait for you to give us the nod instead
If you don't get snow it's a non event

dacogawa

GFS has the snow arriving on the East coast early Tuesday morning and spreading into the south, ARPEGE is a day later with the same conclusion, who will win...



And then pretty much countrywide by Wednesday afternoon

highdef

NIMAN wrote: »

I have read people say this will be as bad as 2010. Really? Its going to hit -18C?

How come I watched the weather forecast last night on RTE, and they told us it might get to -3C...a massive -3C....it was the same temperature a couple of weeks ago when I was commuting home from night shifts. And there was no chaos on the roads.

I too think we are going see another anti-climax on this.

So you judge the severity of the weather on temperature alone?

Do you consider -18c and a few cm of snow to be worse than 30+cm of snow @-3c?

Even if temperature records are not broken, the sheer amount of snow currently being forecast in many Eastern areas is record breaking. Are you saying that if that happens but it's only a few degrees below freezing at the same time, then it's not as bad as 2010?

mirrorwall14

Anyone having glitches with the technical thread? Keeps going to the wrong page of it and telling me there’s a new post when there isnt

Discodog

The critical thing, especially for outdoor workers, livestock etc will be the windspeed & amount of sunshine. The sun is quite strong now & it's the windchill that's causing the problem.

It's the worse possible timing. Birds are starting to nest, the farms have lambs & calves, plants & crops are budding. A long cold spell will cause serious problems.

George Sunsnow

mirrorwall14 wrote: »

Anyone having glitches with the technical thread? Keeps going to the wrong page of it and telling me there’s a new post when there isnt

Yeah that’s a frequent problem with the touch version of boards
It hides new posts
You can only see them if you tap full site at the bottom of the page
A pita

dacogawa

Quite far out in FI but that looks blizzard like if it holds up and the temps stay down, one to keep an eye on

bazlers

Would it jinx it all if I make a sleigh today☔️☔️

pjohnson

Discodog wrote: »

The critical thing, especially for outdoor workers, livestock etc will be the windspeed & amount of sunshine. The sun is quite strong now & it's the windchill that's causing the problem.

It's the worse possible timing. Birds are starting to nest, the farms have lambs & calves, plants & crops are budding. A long cold spell will cause serious problems.

Our breeding Robins/Blackbirds/Pheasants probably wont survive I take it

They are eating more than usual this morning.

Lu Tze

Swanner wrote: »

That was 8 years ago and it all worked out just fine even without buying tyre chain, snow shoes or a shovel..

I was driving an auto rear while drive Merc and managed to drive up Slaughter Hill in Newtown and go shooting which was heaven in the snow.

Not sure why 2010 is relevant though..

I'm not saying this won't happen. I'm sure if we all get excited enough times it will eventually come to fruition and maybe this is is it..

I'll know if I look out my window and see snow.

Im not sure what your purpose is in here - this and the previous thread have been going on for a week or so, looking at weather charts and observing the model for once coincide. Its clear forecasts and future permutations of weather are very much not your thing, which is fine. Some of us will take some precautions based on these threads and the MET advisory, such as picking up a few large bottle of water incase of freezing/burst pipes etc. Hardly a huge expense, and a sensible precaution.

Forecasts are best estimates, based on available data, they do not predict the future, which i think most on here understand. I do all kinds of modelling in my work - and you are generally lucky if you are within 10% of reality for all kinds of reasons, regardless of what you are modelling. You should head over to the economics forum (assuming there is one!) if you want to discuss the consequences of poor forecasting/modelling, and the dire consequences it can have!

Also I hope you are writing to the MET with your doubts.

sryanbruen

Swanner wrote: »

I love snow and get excited at the mention of it but I gave up following these threads a long long time ago...

Time after time, always a complete let down..

I haven’t read this thread but it keeps popping up
on the main page so I’m assuming we’re all being given reason to get excited again..

Just wondering, is there any reason to believe it’ll be any different this time ?

Or is this just more boards hype that’ll amount to absolutely nothing..

Plenty of reasons.

Favorable MJO
Record breaking SSW events
Record breaking reversed zonal westerlies
Very negative NAO
Very negative AO
Low solar activity (the sun is spotless right now)
UKMO being very bullish of this THROUGHOUT
Met Éireann gave out an early advisory (very unusual of them)

I’d appreciate people not down on the hype if they have zero evidence to back themselves up. Sure, you’re entitled to your opinion though. I just find it irritating how people come to these conclusions with no evidence to back themselves up.

pad199207

FRIDAY MORNING nobody moving in Greater Dublin!

Musicman2000

If the 06z Gfs run comes off next Friday the east and south of the country will come to a stand still a serious snow storm . But I think the GFS is being to progressive with that low . It will probably end up further south .

The Bishop Basher

Drumpot wrote: »

You are entitled to be dubious of the event next week but you are also entitled to keep it to yourself.

And i'm entitled to share it.

Having followed these threads and got excited umpteen times over many years only to have absolutely nothing happen, i simply popped in to ask if there was any reason to believe this time will be any different.

If there was I may follow it and start to get excited, if not, i'll just ignore it.

Not sure why the defensive responses..

igCorcaigh

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If the 06z Gfs run comes off next Friday the east and south of the country will come to a stand still a serious snow storm . But I think the GFS is being to progressive with that low . It will probably end up further south .

I see people on netweather forum saying that the latest runs bring the low up further north and mixing in warm air... Not sure which models.

The Bishop Basher

sryanbruen wrote: »

Plenty of reasons.

Favorable MJO
Record breaking SSW events
Record breaking reversed zonal westerlies
Very negative NAO
Very negative AO
Low solar activity (the sun is spotless right now)
UKMO being very bullish of this THROUGHOUT
Met Éireann gave out an early advisory (very unusual of them)

I’d appreciate people not down on the hype if they have zero evidence to back themselves up. Sure, you’re entitled to your opinion though. I just find it irritating how people come to these conclusions with no evidence to back themselves up.

Thanks you for the non emotional defensive response other then the fact that i've irritated you..

I did notice the ME warning which is certainly unusual although their warnings have also consistently come to nothing in recent memory.

Let's hope..

Musicman2000

igCorcaigh wrote: »

I see people on netweather forum saying that the latest runs bringing the low up further north and mixing in a warm air...

If you live in the south of England yes.

Lumi

Mod Note

Swanner, you’ve made your point so can we all move on from the bickering please and enjoy the incredible Synoptics that are unfolding

Thanks

hairyslug

How bad are we expecting it to be around north wexford/gorey, my 3 kids are all too young to remember any significant snow so it will hopefully be a nice surprise to them.

Reckless Abandonment

Musicman2000 wrote: »

If the 06z Gfs run comes off next Friday the east and south of the country will come to a stand still a serious snow storm . But I think the GFS is being to progressive with that low . It will probably end up further south .

I hope it is. We would get an epic snow fall but the risk of it been washed away straight after it falls.