Severe Winter Weather, Snow/Ice - Sun 25th Feb (Onwards) ** READ MOD NOTE POST #1 **

beefburrito

Mother Russia

How are you sleeping

Middle winter cold winds blow

From the tree's the snowflakes drifting

Swirling around like ghosts in the snow

MOTHER RUSSIA

IRON MAIDEN

Kermit.de.frog

Temperatures for Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday







Temperatures not rising pretty much anywhere above freezing from Tuesday evening until at least Saturday morning.

Don't forget the windchill

dacogawa

Not a fan of apps and sites, much prefer the charts but loving the netweather forecast for Dublin port next Friday though, they must have seen the ECM, right at sea level

Strangegravy

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

I assume Shannon will get a nice plastering aswell so?

Just very cold at the start. Looking at the current charts, Shannon will only get snow if we see the low pressure that's showing up on the charts at the moment start to push up towards the south coast bringing precipitation with it. Most of the snow at the start of this event will becoming from Streamers on the Irish sea, hitting the east coast and a bit inland, most of which unfortunately don't normally make it this far West.

But if that low pressure hits that sweet spot of not coming up too high and not staying too low, then yes, Shannon should see some white stuff.

For your own sanity, just expect it to be very cold and keep an eye on here as the cold spell progresses; it'll be mentioned if that snowy scenario for our area and surrounds (I'm East Limerick) becomes more and more likely.

mel.b

beefburrito wrote: »

North Clare's going to get pasted.

Typical the week i go away. Although i shouldn’t complain as i’m heading to Sewdish Lapland so there is plenty of snow there already!

Even if areas do not get snow, could there be a red warning for low temps or is that pushing it?

Oops69

mel.b wrote: »

Typical the week i go away. Although i shouldn’t complain as i’m heading to Sewdish Lapland so there is plenty of snow there already!

but you'll miss the panic here , It'll be all stoical swedes over there .

Shadylou

We never get snow in cork, I'll believe when I see it!!

munsterlegend

Shadylou wrote: »

We never get snow in cork, I'll believe when I see it!!

Depends where in Cork you are. The city is marginal a lot of the time but never get a better chance than this week.

jasper100

km79 wrote: »

That wouldn’t be TOO bad s regards frozen pipes

I’d imagine they are averaged and in certain sheltered pockets and valleys etc. it could be colder.

-6 is the number that starts to cause severe damage I believe.

RobertKK

Oops69 wrote: »

but you'll miss the panic here , It'll be all stoical swedes over there .

I had a Finnish friend in Finland post about the weather and I had not mentioned weather. He was complaining about how cold it was. What really surprised is he posted a technical chart and said how the upper 850 charts were showing -27C over his location.

Larbre34

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Even if areas do not get snow, could there be a red warning for low temps or is that pushing it?

Yes, very possibly. Sustained low overnight temps, daytime highs of -2 or less, the red level for cold alone is likely to be exceeded inland.

For the eastern side of the Country, snowfall red warnings kick in for predicted falls >8cms (with situation likely to worsen) so it will be no surprise to see that triggered.

Vxlks

Is a red level for snow really likely by wednesday? Or is wednesday still slightly in the FI range? I get snow is hard to predict, just wondering if "snow for wednesday" is basically official for Dublin lol

RocketRaccoon

Strangegravy wrote: »

Just very cold at the start. Looking at the current charts, Shannon will only get snow if we see the low pressure that's showing up on the charts at the moment start to push up towards the south coast bringing precipitation with it. Most of the snow at the start of this event will becoming from Streamers on the Irish sea, hitting the east coast and a bit inland, most of which unfortunately don't normally make it this far West.

But if that low pressure hits that sweet spot of not coming up too high and not staying too low, then yes, Shannon should see some white stuff.

For your own sanity, just expect it to be very cold and keep an eye on here as the cold spell progresses; it'll be mentioned if that snowy scenario for our area and surrounds (I'm East Limerick) becomes more and more likely.

With the way I'm working next week I won't see much of it anyway but I'll enjoy looking at it in the airport if it does snow. Just worrying about the wife and kids getting to work and school.

Discodog

RobertKK wrote: »

I had a Finnish friend in Finland post about the weather and I had not mentioned weather. He was complaining about how cold it was. What really surprised is he posted a technical chart and said how the upper 850 charts were showing -27C over his location.

He must be in Lapland. My friend lives in Espoo (near Helisinki). The lowest she has seen is -13. But it is an unusually cold spring for them.

Larbre34

Vxlks wrote: »

Is a red level for snow really likely by wednesday? Or is wednesday still slightly in the FI range? I get snow is hard to predict, just wondering if "snow for wednesday" is basically official for Dublin lol

Very likely snow in some form Wednesday in Dublin. Red level, hard to say, even the Met will be tracking snow streamers on a nowcast basis. Dont make too many outdoor plans either way.

gabeeg

Vxlks wrote: »

Is a red level for snow really likely by wednesday? Or is wednesday still slightly in the FI range? I get snow is hard to predict, just wondering if "snow for wednesday" is basically official for Dublin lol

The conditions look perfect and the models are suggesting it.

And anything that falls on wednesday will likely be landing on Tueday's snow.

Vxlks

Larbre34 wrote: »

Very likely snow in some form Wednesday in Dublin. Red level, hard to say, even the Met will be tracking snow streamers on a nowcast basis. Dont make too many outdoor plans either way.

Thanks haha, my only outdoor plan is to video the town and my area in snow, whilst also sledding with my friend

Vxlks

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/967368358277599233

Whats this met eireann?

JCX BXC

Discodog wrote: »

He must be in Lapland. My friend lives in Espoo (near Helisinki). The lowest she has seen is -13. But it is an unusually cold spring for them.

850 hPa temperatures are about 1.5km up in the atmosphere, add around 10c onto that for daytime temps.

Kermit.de.frog

No need to adjust the forecast in the OP today anyway. Word for word exactly the same.

I did adjust the windchill to as low as -15c though, most likely in the southwest rebel counties.

bazlers

Below was MT Craniums predictions of probability from yesterday’s charts.

“I don't have a clear sense of how much snow potential exists, but these are the ranges by probability:

no snow at all other than a few places with 1-3 cm __ 10%

widespread 5-10 cm, a few local 15 cm ___________ 20%

widespread 10-20 cm, a few local 30 cm __________ 35%

widespread 15-30 cm, a few local 40 cm __________ 25%

widespread 20-40 cm, local 50-60 cm ____________ 10%

If one of those juicy lows from around Portugal makes a loop around north-central Biscay then look at the lower portion of that table, if it's just non-stop easterly winds and cold air, might be near the middle, if the flow gets all disrupted into erratic troughs and lows, would have to look at it case by case and the whole spread comes into play.

The same menu applies to Britain except that I would drop the top category out altogether and add its 10% to the next two down.

By the way, we have not talked much about Northern Ireland and I know we get a few readers living there, this could be very heavy snow in Armagh and Down if there are intervals of east-southeast winds, and otherwise in all of Ulster with northeast winds. And with any clear spells, the western counties including Donegal could see some exceptionally low overnight readings.”

Kermit.de.frog

JCX BXC wrote: »

850 hPa temperatures are about 1.5km up in the atmosphere, add around 10c onto that for daytime temps.

This is not always the case. The height at which that temperature applies will be falling through the week as the heights decrease.

So even though these temperatures may rise slightly toward the end of the week there is a compensation effect.

DaleB

Ah lads the excitement is startin to set in now, before i go buyin heaps of tinned food and things i can cook in tinfoil in the fire, whats the likely hood of Waterford getting a glimpse? Is it still lookin good or will we have to wait later in the week?

bazlers

Kermit,
Would you going by latest guidance agree with MTs probability?

Vxlks

tbh probably not till halfway through the snow storm itself lmao

NIMAN

force eleven wrote: »

Donegal gets deep snow most winters from the north or west. Much more reliable than the Beast. Time to spread out the fun a little. If fun it is eventually....

But does it really? I mean where people actually live, not up in the mountains.

I live in North Donegal, have done since 2000.
I was moving house in 2010, moving further north in fact. We got the keys to the house but had to delay moving for a couple of weeks due to that terrible freeze with the real cold temperatures around Dec2010/Jan 2011.

I also have to cross over a mountain of 500ft every morning on my commute. It is renowned in the local area for having its own weather, and is often white when 5 miles further on the road are clear.

And I haven't missed one day at work due to bad weather since I moved, over 7yrs. Had a few dodgy days getting in, especially as I would often be the 1st car on the roads at 6:15am, but always got through it OK.

So I often think people assume Donegal gets worse weather than it does.

I'd say more wet and windy than cold and icy.

RobertKK

Discodog wrote: »

He must be in Lapland. My friend lives in Espoo (near Helisinki). The lowest she has seen is -13. But it is an unusually cold spring for them.

Southern Finland. The -27C is at 1500 metres.

Kermit.de.frog

bazlers wrote: »

Kermit,
Would you going by latest guidance agree with MTs probability?

Seems reasonable to me.

sparrowcar

Just reading the weather thread in the farming forum..one poster made the comment below 5 days ago. Part of me wants to reply with a smug comment but actually I just hope they all have enough time now to prepare their farms/animals for what's coming.


"Lads if there was any danger of that in sight met Eir would be issuing status red warnings. If it -1 there issuing warnings.

A lot of attention paid to air chair weathermen"