Extreme cold weather from Feb 25th on, and now St. Patrick's Day on...

George Sunsnow · 22-02-2018 08:26PM

To be fair Most of Dublin had snow for a solid month in November December 2010
We were all drawing milk to the milk lorries at central points here in wicklow
I suspect that's going to be happening again in the east at first ,next week and in a lot of other places before the week is out
It is not too late to take whatever measures you need to

Guidance tonight has converged and the word for it is pretty severe
Watch the tv forecasts closely

To put a start time on this, the first snow showers may be getting into the east by Monday evening,continuing Tuesday to Saturday and becoming more widespread
By Wenesday Temperatures in a lot of areas will not get above zero in the daytime never mind the night
This is not like the northwest snow we saw up to a few weeks ago,its very dry snow so every flake will settle in this cold
It will also have a lower moisture content so will contain a lot more bulk
Its looking Dire from a farming point of view

Say my name · 22-02-2018 09:03PM

Don't forget to check your meal bins and have enough just in case the meal lorry can't reach you next week.
So that's Friday (tomorrow), Saturday morning and possibly Monday that deliveries can get to you.

giveitholly · 23-02-2018 12:12AM

George I see they are going a bit mad over on the weather forum tonight,from what I can gather it will be mostly an east/southeast event,in your opinion how far west will the snow travel,do you think tipp could see some

Grueller · 23-02-2018 12:35AM

To be fair they do talk up every possibility of snow over there. It does look like there is some on the way though.

RedPeppers · 23-02-2018 12:38AM

George Sunsnow wrote: »

To be fair Most of Dublin had snow for a solid month in November December 2010
We were all drawing milk to the milk lorries at central points here in wicklow
I suspect that's going to be happening again in the east at first ,next week and in a lot of other places before the week is out
It is not too late to take whatever measures you need to

Guidance tonight has converged and the word for it is pretty severe
Watch the tv forecasts closely

To put a start time on this, the first snow showers may be getting into the east by Monday evening,continuing Tuesday to Saturday and becoming more widespread
By Wenesday Temperatures in a lot of areas will not get above zero in the daytime never mind the night
This is not like the northwest snow we saw up to a few weeks ago,its very dry snow so every flake will settle in this cold
It will also have a lower moisture content so will contain a lot more bulk
Its looking Dire from a farming point of view

Cheers for the regular updates hard to fathom some of the charts / terminology over in weather forum

George Sunsnow · 23-02-2018 12:44AM

giveitholly wrote: »

George I see they are going a bit mad over on the weather forum tonight,from what I can gather it will be mostly an east/southeast event,in your opinion how far west will the snow travel,do you think tipp could see some

Yes I think Tipp will see some,the showers will travel well inland
There may also be disturbances that affect wind direction meaning all areas are at risk at some point
I’ve seen maps now tonight modeling max temps on next Thursday of -2c and as low as -4c in the east
There’s a threat of prolonged snow from a sliding low that may come up from the south around the end of next week that would dump a lot of new snow across Munster and leinster

It’s a case of watching forecasts on a day to day basis next week but yes I’d expect very snowy conditions to set in over a lot of the east from Monday night
It looks horrendous actually at the moment from current guidance and seeing the depth of cold making a v line for Ireland I’d well believe it

giveitholly · 23-02-2018 12:49AM

OK thanks George,keep up the good work,it's a bit quieter in here so thats why I said I would ask in here

George Sunsnow · 23-02-2018 12:53AM

Another Jesus Mary and Joseph post from Mt Cranium just now on the weather forum who is a Canadian meteorologist and knows his stuff
It’s as follows and I concur:

I would say at this point, the models are advertising a better than 50-50 chance of red alert conditions on 27th to 2nd of March. Potential exists for crippling amounts of snow over large parts of the south, it will be more of an enhanced snowfall than localized streamers, those will be the heaviest core of the larger extent of snow, if these charts are halfway accurate. The 850 mb temps are indicating that once heavy snow cover develops across Britain, temperatures there could be -4 to -7 C in snowfall and -10 to -15 (in central England and Wales) in any clearing intervals overnight, so that depth of frigid air will be rushing across the Irish Sea, it will easily form massive streamers but as there is some synoptic scale snowfall potential in the background, these streamers will enhance that lighter snow, would expect totals to be quite staggering if all this comes off. I will post some actual numbers when I feel that the model consensus warrants it, but expect big ones.

kowtow · 23-02-2018 01:52AM

George Sunsnow wrote:

Another Jesus Mary and Joseph post from Mt Cranium just now on the weather forum who is a Canadian meteorologist and knows his stuff Itâ€™s as follows and I concur:

I have 11 pairs of skis at the back of my calving shed.

Every time I trip over them going for the calving jack I remind myself that they might come in handy yet.

gozunda · 23-02-2018 04:04AM

Say my name wrote: »

Don't forget to check your meal bins and have enough just in case the meal lorry can't reach you next week.
So that's Friday (tomorrow), Saturday morning and possibly Monday that deliveries can get to you.

During bad weather - I always try to have a bit extra animal feed on hand. My reasoning is that even if local conditions turn out not to bad - the knock on effect from Europe and the UK means that there may be significant delays and possible local shortages after the event.

Wildsurfer · 23-02-2018 07:31AM

Getting up this morning and thinking not looking forward to what will greet us next week when we're heading out to farm. So any good ideas to make life a bit easier if the cold snap hits? My main worries would be frozen milk lines, calf auto feeder out of action due to frozen lines, tractor diesel icing, and water freezing to water troughs.

George Sunsnow · 23-02-2018 08:01AM

Looking at Wednesday Thursday and Friday below freezing all day over most of the country with heavy snow falling and piling up across the east and other areas

Dam is a technical term for how cold air is from cloud to ground
Basically at 515 dam or below it is freezing the whole way

Mr cranium wrote this just now on the weather forum bringing on nervous laughter with me
He is an amusing writer but this is quite serious
Yes a big problem next week keeping water pipes flowing not to mention snow

The ground truth back in Russia is fairly convincing, there's some place called Holm just east of the Lithuanian border sitting at -30 C now, it's close to where the current analysis has the 504 dm thickness contour, which is supposed to cross Britain and get into Ireland (perhaps 507-510 may be the best we'll see but still) at some point during this merriment. I don't expect it to maintain -30 C but there's a fair ways to go before that parcel of air stops being wintry and if it then gets saturated, well ...

I says · 23-02-2018 09:58AM

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Looking at Wednesday Thursday and Friday below freezing all day over most of the country with heavy snow falling and piling up across the east and other areas

Dam is a technical term for how cold air is from cloud to ground
Basically at 515 dam or below it is freezing the whole way

Mr cranium wrote this just now on the weather forum bringing on nervous laughter with me
He is an amusing writer but this is quite serious
Yes a big problem next week keeping water pipes flowing not to mention snow

The ground truth back in Russia is fairly convincing, there's some place called Holm just east of the Lithuanian border sitting at -30 C now, it's close to where the current analysis has the 504 dm thickness contour, which is supposed to cross Britain and get into Ireland (perhaps 507-510 may be the best we'll see but still) at some point during this merriment. I don't expect it to maintain -30 C but there's a fair ways to go before that parcel of air stops being wintry and if it then gets saturated, well ...

Coal,timber briquettes and firelighters check.
Hot air fan in garage to keep pipes warm check.
Farm machinery and sledge ready to break ice in troughs check.
Bales of hay ready for outwintered stock check.
Weekend shopping for essentials check.

Reggie. · 23-02-2018 10:06AM

I says wrote: »

Coal,timber briquettes and firelighters check.
Hot air fan in garage to keep pipes warm check.
Farm machinery and sledge ready to break ice in troughs check.
Bales of hay ready for outwintered stock check.
Weekend shopping for essentials check.

Whiskey?

Base price · 23-02-2018 10:08AM

Reggie. wrote: »

Whiskey?

Brandy

Reggie. · 23-02-2018 10:13AM

Base price wrote: »

Brandy

The commute will be fun next week

I says · 23-02-2018 10:17AM

Condoms

Reggie. · 23-02-2018 10:18AM

I says wrote: »

Condoms

For whom?

I says · 23-02-2018 10:19AM

Reggie. wrote: »

For whom?

The mice

Green farmer · 23-02-2018 10:27AM

Reggie. wrote: »

For whom?

Pat Mustard

bogman_bass · 23-02-2018 10:42AM

I'm basing it on nothing other than my gut but I have a feeling it's going to be too cold for much snow

Muckit · 23-02-2018 10:48AM

It's amazing how much floods have gone back on farmlamd and rivers have dropped with all these dry days.

Concrete on yards dry, road verges. Real sign of spring.

K.G. · 23-02-2018 11:03AM

I says wrote: »

Condoms

Its important to layer up

J.O. Farmer · 23-02-2018 11:04AM

I says wrote: »

The mice

Sleeping bags Fr. Innocent?

Buford T. Justice XIX · 23-02-2018 11:04AM

K.G. wrote: »

Its important to layer up

Put two on, to be sure to be sure:pac:

gozunda · 23-02-2018 11:09AM

Muckit wrote: »

It's amazing how much floods have gone back on farmlamd and rivers have dropped with all these dry days.

Concrete on yards dry, road verges. Real sign of spring.

Always noticed that just before a cold spell - the ground dries out ... I suppose its a change in atmospheric conditions. Reckon we're in for a bad one next week.

I says · 23-02-2018 11:11AM

Buford T. Justice V wrote: »

Put two on, to be sure to be sure:pac:

The old two bagger

Nettle Soup · 23-02-2018 12:19PM

Muckit wrote: »

It's amazing how much floods have gone back on farmlamd and rivers have dropped with all these dry days.

Concrete on yards dry, road verges. Real sign of spring.

Yes River Corrib is going down fairly fast which is always a good sign given the lake and catchment area it needs to drain.

https://waterlevel.ie/0000030098/0001/

Villain · 23-02-2018 12:36PM

I hope you are listening to George Sunsnow because this is going to cripple some farmers next week.

whelan2 · 23-02-2018 12:50PM

What counties will be worst affected?

Extreme cold weather from Feb 25th on, and now St. Patrick's Day on...

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