Extreme cold weather from Feb 25th on, and now St. Patrick's Day on...

Say my name

A positive thing to take from the models this morning is that this forecasted bad weather is getting pushed back further into the future.

It was forecasted first to start Sunday night now it won't start till Tuesday.

Hopefully it keeps getting pushed back into the future and never reaches us.

Not very scientific but maybe it's time for people to just get on with their work and leave the models to themselves. (Myself included).

yewtree

Always found the long range forecast over 5 days a waste of time, pure guess work. I have used most if them.
The best weather information is the met 5 day weather forecast.
Maybe the cold snap will come or not but I would make zero plans based on a weather forecast greater than 5 days

Reggie.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

In your area higher likelyhood of that
But if the east of the country sees next week out without snowfall it’ll be very lucky
Hard to believe
Third glorious day in a row here
The east wind will pick up by Sunday evening making it very raw

That's what I need is the place to dry out

I says

yewtree wrote: »

Always found the long range forecast over 5 days a waste of time, pure guess work. I have used most if them.
The best weather information is the met 5 day weather forecast.
Maybe the cold snap will come or not but I would make zero plans based on a weather forecast greater than 5 days

Michael fish couldn’t even predict the great storm in 87

Clonmel1000

Muckit wrote: »

Bring it on. It's exactly what we need. Not this thing of temps yo-yoing up and down. We have got no sustained cold snap at all this winter. Far too mild and unnatural.

It’s been cold since Christmas plenty of frost and some snow.

tanko

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

It’s been cold since Christmas plenty of frost and some snow.

And all that feckin rain.

jimmy G M

2 standout words from the RTE weather forecast tonight for next week....."Exceptionally cold"

Here's a really good forecast from the BBC met office from this evening as well, courtesy of the weather forum

https://www.facebook.com/metoffice/videos/10155598823784209/

Angus2018

That doesn't look good! Better stock up on wood and tea.

Reggie.

Angus2018 wrote: »

That doesn't look good! Better stock up on wood and tea.

Nah that's not too bad at All. Very cold yes but dry which is what we need. States that most area in danger of snow is the east of England as opposed to the west and we are further west than that again.

Dry and frosty..... I'll take that for a week no bother

charolais0153

Mt cranium -[Might be time to add a level 2 to this thread and change the title to

Much colder weather with increasing risk of localized heavy snowfalls from Mon 26th

There are enough high probability impacts from the cold alone to merit a level two, and the snowfall potential looks to be at least level two]

Bad news

George Sunsnow

charolais0153 wrote: »

Mt cranium -[Might be time to add a level 2 to this thread and change the title to

Much colder weather with increasing risk of localized heavy snowfalls from Mon 26th

There are enough high probability impacts from the cold alone to merit a level two, and the snowfall potential looks to be at least level two]

Bad news

It’s worse this morning,this is actually getting dangerous AND the large snowfall risk is pretty much countrywide by midweek
In the short term it’s also looking like heavy snow showers near east and also near south coasts
The showers are caused by really low temperature air sourced in Russia passing over warmer waters in our shores
It’s called lake effect snow like what you see on Canadian U,S lakes
The temperatures in Moscow are below -20
The air source itself back in Siberia is -44c
I would certainly be sourcing a generator and filling up oil tanks and sourcing a mobile milk tank,checking anti freeze in tractors etc

Whilst it all sounds dramatic,it’s not a big effort to be prepared

Here is mt craniums forecast this morning

The risk of severe winter weather conditions next week has actually been upgraded with the latest guidance, but it's too early to be absolutely sure these outcomes will happen in full. Some maps including those provided by the leading European model would add heavy snowfalls to the more certain prospect of intense cold by mid-week. Take this alert and the material in the following forecasts more as a guide of what could potentially happen than anything certain to happen.

NEXT WEEK looks very cold with frequent dry spells and wintry sunshine, but the ongoing risk of localized snow especially in Leinster, coastal south, and east Ulster. Further west, not quite as severe and less chance of wintry showers at first. This severe cold will be accompanied by east winds 50 to 80 km/hr at times, although inland more like 30 to 50 km/hr. Daily highs will be in the range of -1 to +3 C and overnight lows by Tuesday could be as low as -9 C inland, -4 C in more temperate coastal areas. Later on, towards 1-2 March, winds may turn more northeasterly at times with passing disturbances dropping snow or sleet.

This cold spell could dig in and continue for quite a long stretch, with perhaps the odd brief interruption by a day closer to March normal temperatures, and it seems logical to suggest that the longer this spell continues, the more likelihood there would be for snow to affect your location, as it would be only a matter of time until the right combination of wind direction, frontal systems and temperature occur. However, we remember that March 2013 was generally quite cold and rather dry in quite a few places so that outcome is also possible.

George Sunsnow

In case you only listen to the main met eireann radio forecast
This is what’s on their farming forecast page for the week ahead

High pressure will build close to Ireland over the next few days before pushing north allowing an extremely cold easterly air-flow become established. Slight or moderate frosts are likely for the remainder of this week but frosts will become severe by Sunday night and through all of next week. Ice and snow will be added factors towards the middle of next week. Daytime temperatures by early next week will struggle to 2 or 3 Celsius with overnight lows falling to -4 or -5 Celsius, lower over snow fields

https://www.met.ie/forecasts/farm-commentary.asp

Green farmer

Sometimes these cold snaps hit the uk hard but don’t reach us or we get a watered down version. If it only lasted 2 days it wouldn’t be so bad. Grass growing lovely here for last few days, so going to focus on that.

George Sunsnow

The problem here is the longevity and the source of the flow
The U.K. will get hit hard but there’s an unavoidable increasing likelihood so will we

To get technical about this all models are forcing the Siberia air west out into the Atlantic almost to Canada
This means every ounce of cold air coming out of Russia will want to pass over us if you follow?

kk.man

Saw a really red Sky this morning....not a good sign

MfMan

kk.man wrote: »

Saw a really red Sky this morning....not a good sign

More a sign of rain though rather than high pressure you'd imagine.

Say my name

MfMan wrote: »

More a sign of rain though rather than high pressure you'd imagine.

Had a few drops of rain there a few minutes ago. Just a squib though.

RobertKK

People need to prepare, reading this thread and so many want to dismiss it. It is like head in the sand stuff with some.

jaymla627

RobertKK wrote: »

People need to prepare, reading this thread and so many want to dismiss it. It is like head in the sand stuff with some.

Was in getting extra calf jackets,coal and salt, was a queue of lads with fertiliser spreaders waiting to be loaded, its mind-boggling

Dickie10

bad enough ordinary joes dont realise whats coming but im genuinely worried as to why met eirrean are not ramping up the forecast with orange warnings. we will get nights of up to -13 and nice bit of snow. another thing i find with radio faoecasts is that if the weather is dry and sunny they automatically have a cheery voice and think its lovely weather looking out the window. grand and dry but it will not come above freezing

Say my name

jaymla627 wrote: »

Was in getting extra calf jackets,coal and salt, was a queue of lads with fertiliser spreaders waiting to be loaded, its mind-boggling

Ah I think most people are well aware something could happen (on here anyway ). Hopefully and atm the models have it easing off by the weekend and milder air coming in. Now that still leaves 5 days of potentially snowy weather.
Your post reminds me of hurricane Ophelia when I bought a generator on the Saturday before it arrived and it was only for the warnings and weather watching on boards that I took it seriously and prepared. The guy in the store where I bought the genny had no idea about an incoming storm. I wouldn't have got a genny for love nor money if I waited to see what would happen.
With the size of herds now and the volume of milk in tanks if the lorry can't make it to the yard, it's going to be uncollected. You'd want a tank the size of a slurry tanker if some people were thinking of preparing a mobile tanker.
Actually think Glanbia had a tanker pulled by a big tractor at one stage back in 2010?
Positives for me this time is that our road is managed by New Ross district council now instead of those enniscorthy district council slackers whose idea of a snow plough is a Ford 3000 with a transport box on the back.

tanko

If we got through 2010 we’ll get through whatever is coming next week, frozen water pipes is the big problem.
At least when im carrying buckets of river water around the yard it wont be pi$$ing rain down on top of me.

Base price

tanko wrote: »

If we got through 2010 we’ll get through whatever is coming next week, frozen water pipes is the big problem.
At least when im carrying buckets of river water around the yard it wont be pi$$ing rain down on top of me.

+1
Frozen water pipes would be my main concern.
In 2010 the mains water in the house in NCD froze at 3pm on Christmas Day and didn't thaw until the 17th of Jan

I says

Base price wrote: »

+1
Frozen water pipes would be my main concern.
In 2010 the mains water in the house in NCD froze at 3pm on Christmas Day and didn't thaw until the 17th of Jan

That’s Dublin for ya backwards as fcuk

George Sunsnow

There is a lot of model uncertainty at the moment due to a 2nd warming of the stratosphere over Canada

So I wouldn’t put any sted to be honest in milder weather returning soon but you never know
The ECMWF model for instance,a main tool of European met offices and met eireann have it cold throughout
They even have low pressures entering our cold zone and falling as snow throughout
This is the last frame of the ecm this morning-see attached
It would envelope much of Munster and Leinster in a blizzard
It’s highly unlikely that that individual storm would verify but there are signals for others earlier than this that need to be watched

By the way met eireann have criteria that prohibit them from issuing warnings more than 48 hours before an event happens
But they’ll be busy next week :eek:

I’ll stay quiet now in the hope worst does not come to worst!

Muckit

Base price wrote: »

+1
Frozen water pipes would be my main concern.
In 2010 the mains water in the house in NCD froze at 3pm on Christmas Day and didn't thaw until the 17th of Jan

If u had went out with a kettle of water to the footpath and poured it on the stop cock it would have got going.

Muckit

How many days without rain are we at now?
Oh long may it continue!!

Reggie.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

There is a lot of model uncertainty at the moment due to a 2nd warming of the stratosphere over Canada

So I wouldn’t put any sted to be honest in milder weather returning soon but you never know
The ECMWF model for instance,a main tool of European met offices and met eireann have it cold throughout
They even have low pressures entering our cold zone and falling as snow throughout
This is the last frame of the ecm this morning-see attached
It would envelope much of Munster and Leinster in a blizzard
It’s highly unlikely that that individual storm would verify but there are signals for others earlier than this that need to be watched

By the way met eireann have criteria that prohibit them from issuing warnings more than 48 hours before an event happens
But they’ll be busy next week :eek:

I’ll stay quiet now in the hope worst does not come to worst!

Any idea how long this spell could last?

George Sunsnow

Reggie. wrote: »

Any idea how long this spell could last?

Uk met office say 2 weeks so I’d run with that
They have models that we have no access to and that met Eireann aren’t interested in because their focus is 5 days ahead at any one time
By the way everything is a could happen
Not a definitely will happen
My forecasting gut though is I expect a lot of it to happen

Below is Kermit’s post on the weather forum ,just look at the pretty colours advancing from Europe
That’s all super freezing air and when it interacts with enough moisture you get snow
A lot of it
I’ll shut up now
All I wanted to do is raise awareness here

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The animation shows progression to Monday night of Siberian sourced air mass (temperature @ 1,500 m) down in to Europe, the UK and Ireland. The scale, depth and broadness of the cold in to Europe is highly irregular for it's potency over such a wide area.


Well on track this morning for very cold weather from Sunday night. We are already starting to draw in the cold surface temperatures from the continent. Humidity is falling and the temperatures will be falling back at night under clear skies. It's a very different feel to what we have experienced previously.

I think it's a good idea to carry out initial preparations at this point on a just-in-case basis depending on your needs.

J.O. Farmer

I says wrote: »

That’s Dublin for ya backwards as fcuk

Reading this thread if anything does happen it's going to be a national crisis because it's going to hit Dublin.

I remember back in 2010 when there was snow and ice down the country for 3 weeks when they ran out of salt and we were all skating about You'd be watching the news and there'd be "in other news guards said something or other about slippy roads down the country."

Then snow fell for 1 day in Dublin and there was uproar national crisis why wasn't the minister doing something for the last 3 weeks when we were running out of salt. The poorminister had probably been unaware of the weather as the Dail is in Dublin.

On the plus side maybe Leo will close down the country again and I'll get a weeks holidays because it's too dangerous for me to go to work.