Extreme cold weather from Feb 25th on, and now St. Patrick's Day on...

Green farmer

Villain wrote: »

Windchill will be much lower than air temps, so while it may be -5c the windchill could be -10c, some weather models are showing windchill as low as -14c later in the week, throw that in with some heavy showers and I can tell you young lambs will be in trouble.

Thankful here I pushed lambing back to 1st April

George Sunsnow

Another jaw dropping post from Mr Cranium and not just for the east either
Orange and red warnings likely through the week
Red will close schools

See below

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

This is the forecast that I would derive from the current model suite, take this more as a map interpretation than an actual forecast update from me (so not to be cross-posted in forecast thread, if this looks to be on track by morning I may have wording like this in the morning update):

UPDATE __ Friday 23 Feb 2018 __ 9:30 p.m.
______________________________________

Latest guidance continues to emphasize potential for heavy snowfall as well as record cold temperatures for this time of year. The full measure of cold arrives in the east on Monday afternoon and quickly overspreads the country, so temperatures will be falling sharply on Monday night to reach about -7 C inland, -3 C east coast by Tuesday morning. Scattered outbreaks of light snow at first will turn to streamers of heavy snow impacting mostly central Leinster on Tuesday with 5-10 cm potential. Temperatures will struggle to reach 1 or 2 C near the east coast and -1 or zero inland on Tuesday. Tuesday night may be even colder with some lows approaching -10 C in the north and west, -5 C east and south. Heavier snow will develop over larger areas by Wednesday and will continue at least intermittently through Thursday, Friday and Saturday as winds back into the northeast and become quite strong at times (50-80 km/hr). Each day has the potential for 10-20 cm snowfalls in some parts of Leinster and Munster as well as east Ulster, more like 5-10 cm for most of Connacht and Donegal. A few places could have much less snow near the west coast but this is not a certainty. Temperatures during this snowy episode will tend to remain in a narrow range of -1 to -4 C during the snow but if there are clear intervals at night could fall to -10 C or lower. The net effect of the intermittent outbreaks of snow will probably be a peak cover of about 20 to 40 cm over some parts of the inland southeast and Dublin-Meath, and 30 to 50 cm over parts of the east-facing slopes in south Dublin and Wicklow. Combined with the winds and blowing snow, there could be blizzard conditions especially in open areas of central Leinster.

giveitholly

joanna said after the 9.30 news that there could be red warnings next week so kudos to george for giving warnings earlier even though some were quick to dismiss him

George Sunsnow

Bear in mind now that initially a lot of the country may avoid this snow and I think the west and northwest will dodge a bullet but as the week goes on,there’ll be several bullets to be dodged so the chances of being hit by one or two of them grow
The showers hitting the east coast wherever they hit will go well inland eg a big shower hitting Dublin could be in Athlone as a medium sized shower an hour or two later
The only difference is it would have 2 inches in Dublin and down to one inch by Athlone
The issue is it being dry snow (as opposed to wet Atlantic snow) it will all settle

Angus2018

Trying to prepare as best I can:
Stocking up on meal tomorrow or Monday
Tractors are refuelled
Major jobs for the week will be done on Sunday/Monday
Hair Dryer and Kettle ready for freezing pipes
Must fill a big tanker with water and prepare a dozen empty lick buckets for carrying water if needs be
Red lamp for the pump house working

Might get salt for some of the yard or a snow shovel.

George Sunsnow

Actually that’s a very very good idea,the red lamp!
Assuming there’s no power cut :O

Reggie.

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Actually that’s a very very good idea,the red lamp!
Assuming there’s no power cut :O

Same goes for the kettle and hairdryer

George Sunsnow

Ah yeah ,I’ve a genny should that happen but say power goes during the night,water in pipes would freeze quick enough

nhg

Copied from this mornings update from M T Cranium on the Weather Forum:

Saturday, 24 February, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


ADVANCE ALERT for severe wintry weather conditions setting in on Monday and lasting at least through most of next week and perhaps returning at times later in March. The situation this morning remains unchanged although if anything the potential for snow has yet again increased. The cold spell will provide numerous opportunities for heavy snowfall to develop and spread across large parts of the south, central and northeastern counties, and some chances for snow will develop in drier (less snowy) western counties. Some very cold readings will probably happen after the first round of snowfall by mid-week, and then return later if skies clear and snow remains on the ground but the cold factor will be more of a combination of unusually low daytime readings (continuing at night) and strong winds.

TODAY ... Cloudy and rather cold with some partial clearing later, although west coast likely to remain mostly overcast and remain a bit milder all day with highs of 8 to 10 C, while staying rather cool further east with highs 5 to 8 C. Winds south to southeast 40 to 60 km/hr (mostly southeast but some southerly breezes at times near west coast).

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, cold, some local frost, although breezy enough and dry so that frost may be slight. Lows -2 to +3 C.

SUNDAY ... Sunny intervals, lows -2 to +3 C, highs 5 to 8 C. Winds increasing at times to southeast 50 to 80 km/hr.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, turning sharply colder during the day, possible snow or sleet showers by late afternoon or evening near south and east coasts. Morning lows about -1 C and afternoon highs only 3 to 6 C east, 5 to 8 C west. Winds east-southeast 50 to 80 km/hr.

TUESDAY ... Windy and very cold with risk of snow developing across eastern and southern counties, morning lows -5 to -2 C, afternoon highs -1 to +3 C, winds east to northeast 40 to 70 km/hr adding a chill factor (feeling like -6 C). Heavy snow is likely to develop late in the day across Leinster. 5 to 15 cms possible there.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and very cold with widespread snow, some of it heavy at times. A few sunny breaks in north Connacht, Donegal and north Clare, but flurries could invade there too, in winds east to northeast 50 to 80 km/hr. Morning lows generally -4 C but could be as low as -8 C in a few parts of the northwest. Afternoon highs -4 to +1 C. Snowfalls of 10 to 30 cms are possible in Leinster and 5 to 20 cms in some parts of Munster, inland southeast Connacht, and much of Ulster except likely less in Donegal. Near blizzard conditions are possible, and severe disruptions to travel may begin to intensify (with an extension of that in the following outlook).

OUTLOOK ... The first three or four days of March could see a severe snowstorm developing, as most guidance shows a strong Atlantic low trying to push away the cold air but failing in that, looping around south of Ireland for up to two days before drifting away to the east. That will bring an extended period of snow, strong northeast winds 60 to 100 km/hr, and continued very cold temperatures in the range of -3 to +2 C. There could be brief mixing of sleet or ice pellets into this storm near the Wexford coast but at the moment it does not appear likely to change the snowfall over to liquid forms anywhere else, amounts could be extreme in this scenario, so as this is not a confirmed outcome yet, I am just going to say keep in touch with forecasts and be aware of the potential for very heavy snowfall amounts and severe disruption. Even if this Atlantic low happened to stay a lot further south and not impact the cold spell, other likely outcomes would be cold, windy and snowy in their own ways.

It should be noted also that heavy snow is likely to hit parts of Britain and northern France, Belgium and southern Germany, Austria and Switzerland over this same period and European air and road travel may be severely disrupted.

The end of this wintry spell is hard to determine from guidance, it could linger past the weekend of 3rd-4th March and if it relaxes its grip, further cold spells could develop in the blocking pattern we are about to enter.

The cold air is not very far away already, temperatures in most of Holland and Belgium at this hour are near -6 C with east winds having arisen. Some snow streamers are showing up near the south coast of the Baltic Sea but otherwise this air mass is clear and cold, a situation that will change dramatically when the cold air gets out over the North Sea, Channel and seas around Ireland.

Buford T. Justice XIX

Just a reminder folks. You may want to empty out your medicines cabinets before this hits and store them in your own houses. Freezing isn't likely to improve any of the meds we use so it may be better safe than sorry.

greenfield21

Any ideas how long this cold spell will last? If we do get snow probably not much of a thaw even with the longer days?

Villain

greenfield21 wrote: »

Any ideas how long this cold spell will last? If we do get snow probably not much of a thaw even with the longer days?

Likely to last the full week at least and possibly beyond next weekend. If the charts overnight were to come off we would be looking at a serious snowfall event at the end of next week.

wrangler

Villain wrote: »

Likely to last the full week at least and possibly beyond next weekend. If the charts overnight were to come off we would be looking at a serious snowfall event at the end of next week.

It lasted 3 weeks the last time christmas 2010

Villain

wrangler wrote: »

It lasted 3 weeks the last time christmas 2010

That was much earlier in the winter though, this could last 2 weeks but it would be something very very special to last 3 weeks.

Mooooo

I'll turn into the grinch if I see snow

3 the square

Would a sprinkle of urea help stop yard where cows walk from freezing over ??

orm0nd

3 the square wrote: »

Would a sprinkle of urea help stop yard where cows walk from freezing over ??

yes

we leave yards dirty in frosty weather , helps give a grip, heavy snow is different however

BigSteaks

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Weather apps on phones aren’t worth a shoite
But as people here do not want the information I am giving
I’m out
Go fend for yourselves :mad:

Good god, the tinfoil hat brigade are out in force. Rarely have i seen such drama and hysterics. Its February, jesus as a country we have frost and snow in March.

The drama here is unreal, it was 2 weeks of snow few days ago, now 2 days. Lads should have meal heat and food without this drama.

Im east side now, beautiful day. Heading out for match now, if i am not back im under snow. Head west lads to save yourselves

George Sunsnow

BigSteaks wrote: »

Good god, the tinfoil hat brigade are out in force. Rarely have i seen such drama and hysterics. Its February, jesus as a country we have frost and snow in March.

The drama here is unreal, it was 2 weeks of snow few days ago, now 2 days. Lads should have meal heat and food without this drama.

Im east side now, beautiful day. Heading out for match now, if i am not back im under snow. Head west lads to save yourselves

What a load of Rubbish,have you bothered to read the thread?
This doesn’t start until Tuesday
If your watch or phone app says it’s tuesday already I suggest you bring it to a good repair shop

BigSteaks

George Sunsnow wrote: »

What a load of Rubbish,have you bothered to read the thread?
This doesn’t start until Tuesday
If your watch or phone app says it’s tuesday already I suggest you bring it to a good repair shop

Oh i have read the thread, seriously good laugh. Tuesday the beginning of the end as we know it

alps

3 the square wrote: »

Would a sprinkle of urea help stop yard where cows walk from freezing over ??

Yes..

Believe a local airport were using it until traces appeared in the groundwater...

George Sunsnow

BigSteaks wrote: »

Oh i have read the thread, seriously good laugh. Tuesday the beginning of the end as we know it

What is it you don’t believe about Tuesday to Saturday’s forecast and how warm and dry do you expect it to be and thirdly what science do you base this on?
Back up the waffle or clear off from clogging up an information thread

BigSteaks

George Sunsnow wrote: »

What is it you don’t believe about Tuesday to Saturday’s forecast and how warm and dry do you expect it to be and thirdly what science do you base this on?
Back up the waffle or clear off from clogging up an information thread

Information or wild speculation? I'll get my info from the experts thanks. Lucky enough as the
2 weeks of snow and drama ye guys were promising seems to have disappeared!!

George Sunsnow

BigSteaks wrote: »

Information or wild speculation? I'll get my info from the experts thanks. Lucky enough as the
2 weeks of snow and drama ye guys were promising seems to have disappeared!!

In other words you have nothing
Thought so

pjohnson

BigSteaks wrote: »

Information or wild speculation? I'll get my info from the experts thanks. Lucky enough as the
2 weeks of snow and drama ye guys were promising seems to have disappeared!!

I hope you dont have animals

BigSteaks

George Sunsnow wrote: »

In other words you have nothing
Thought so

You keep changing your mind. Speculation

BigSteaks

pjohnson wrote: »

I hope you dont have animals

I do, i have fodder for them. I expect bad weather nearly til May. Called farming in Ireland!

Who2

A bit of balance here is no harm but talks of Armageddon frosts is pure crazy -2 -4 isn’t going to kill us, there just seems to be a lot of crazy hype.

charolais0153

alps wrote: »

Yes..

Believe a local airport were using it until traces appeared in the groundwater...

0-0-50 is basically salt so u could use that?

George Sunsnow

Who2 wrote: »

A bit of balance here is no harm but talks of Armageddon frosts is pure crazy -2 -4 isn’t going to kill us, there just seems to be a lot of crazy hype.

Temperatures over snow cover will go a lot lower than that
This was even stated on the met Éireann website but isn’t currently because there is so much on it now
It’s a detail that will return during the week because rather than being something for the general outlook it will need to be in the general forecast

It’s when winds slacken that temp at night will drop most ,so for now it’s best to concentrate on wind chill ie the real feel and at night that’s going to be -12 or so by mid week