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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    I can't really see any easterlies in the 12z, and any cold is pushed back to near the end of the charts!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    I can't really see any easterlies in the 12z, and any cold is pushed back to near the end of the charts!

    Yeah each run just adds another day to the Date to when the easterly has an affect on Ireland.

    I said I’d give it to Wednesday to see if there’s anything substantial to go on, but quickly running out of any hope with this now.

    I’d say will be dropped after 18z tonight.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    I can't really see any easterlies in the 12z, and any cold is pushed back to near the end of the charts!

    There are no easterlies on the GFS 12z OP, it's just a rather worse version of last night's Pub Run. If you've not noticed recently, the OP runs have been mild outliers in the ensembles - at least most of them have been.

    There is no change at all on the GFS 12z ensemble mean.

    nKnQSgf.png

    kpFuK1r.png

    Also, the ECM 00z ensembles had small upgrades for the negative NAO. They show the NAO going negative as early as Monday now.

    P7HBNmD.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    GEM is lovely this evening - ECM follow this please...

    gemnh-0-168.png?12


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 755 ✭✭✭NAGDEFI


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Yeah each run just adds another day to the Date to when the easterly has an affect on Ireland.

    I said I’d give it to Wednesday to see if there’s anything substantial to go on, but quickly running out of any hope with this now.

    I’d say will be dropped after 18z tonight.

    12z GFS is one hell of a mess. Personally i'd give it til Saturday to see if projections sort themselves out. If the continued putting off of sustained cold until deep FI persists we're into winter 'garbage' time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    gabeeg wrote: »
    GFS 12z with yet another completely different route to cold - A dangerous looking northerly deep into FI.
    I won't post a pic as it's simply not going to happen.

    Dangerous? Do you mean like the northerly in December 2010. Bring on the danger in that case!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    ECM 12z is so far struggling to get the high pressure up from the south; bit of a delay there for early next week on this run with the Polar Vortex still over Greenland. However, there is a low in the middle of the North Atlantic indicating the NAO should be getting closer to negative territory (regardless of what the OP here has to say in regards to the Polar Vortex and Icelandic Low).

    The ECM continues to its train of inconsistency and unreliability this season. I'm really getting sick and tired of it.

    dBQMsMs.gif

    uA6uvl7.gif

    I've been noticing that the lesser valued models like the GEM have been performing better in the last month which is quite significant in of itself - just look what it was showing for instance in the chart BLIZZARD7 posted for next Wednesday (+168 hrs). They've tended not to fluctuate as much as models like the GFS and especially the ECM (:rolleyes:) this Winter.

    EDIT: Ryan Maue agrees apparently on the last point.

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/963842224038522889


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    true, however the ECM still has the highest verification stats. It seems to me like the polar vortex is being stubborn but will behave in the end.
    Even if it doesn't, we will at least get a few days of settled and cool weather. I for one am tired of all the rain of late.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭typhoony


    both ECM and GFS showing amplification beyond +192. Best chance this winter of seeing a notherly if we are on the right side of it, on the other hand we could get warm Southerly winds.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    typhoony wrote: »
    both ECM and GFS showing amplification beyond +192. Best chance this winter of seeing a notherly if we are on the right side of it, on the other hand we could get warm Southerly winds.

    If we don’t get the easterly then warm southerlies will do perfectly


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    Not a bad 7 day chart on the latest ukmo. Hopefully the ECM cops itself on soon:)


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Haven't checked the models since last night and I see cold has been pushed even further back tonight, an all too familiar theme. I'll give it until the weekend before I switch from winter mode to spring sunshine mode


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Haven't checked the models since last night and I see cold has been pushed even further back tonight, an all too familiar theme. I'll give it until the weekend before I switch from winter mode to spring sunshine mode

    Switch all you want, whether we get the cold soon or not I see no spring warmth coming anytime soon into March...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    The GFS is getting there in the end, but it is a slow process

    11C2038A-0546-4614-BAA3-38FDAF2D72A6.jpeg.307c5fec3d97fa8986c1db5b723ece59.jpeg

    And a Greenland high, eventually


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    UKMO has the easterly landing at day 6 this morning !

    UN144-21.GIF?15-05


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    yeah good model agreement this morning. UKMO as above, ECM has no easterly at all and no sign of one, gfs has an easterly finally by 3 March and gem has an easterly by 25 Feb!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    UKMO has the easterly landing at day 6 this morning !

    That'd almost be a ninja easterly


  • Registered Users Posts: 778 ✭✭✭Kingswood Rover


    BLIZZARD7 wrote: »
    Switch all you want, whether we get the cold soon or not I see no spring warmth coming anytime soon into March...
    12 degrees over much of the country at the weekend according to the beeb.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    12 degrees over much of the country at the weekend according to the beeb.

    The who?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,346 ✭✭✭highdef


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    The who?

    The beeb....The BBC :D


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    highdef wrote: »
    The beeb....The BBC :D

    Oh goddddd I don't like that one :)

    12c isn't particularly amazing, yeah it's mild but I won't be sitting outside enjoy the sunshine in a T-Shirt by any means!


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    The UKMO isn't alone in bringing an easterly to us by Wednesday. NAVGEM and CFS are also similar.
    I realise that wouldn't typically be considered good company, but still.

    If it's still there on the 12z I'll really get interested.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    No huge change on the 6z gfs. An easterly component by early March


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    gabeeg wrote: »
    The UKMO isn't alone in bringing an easterly to us by Wednesday. NAVGEM and CFS are also similar.
    I realise that wouldn't typically be considered good company, but still.

    If it's still there on the 12z I'll really get interested.

    ICON seems to be close enough to UKMO too.
    JMA not too far off either.

    I'm getting excited


  • Registered Users Posts: 6,018 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    gabeeg wrote: »
    ICON seems to be close enough to UKMO too.
    JMA not too far off either.

    I'm getting excited

    I wouldn't.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    I was a bloody fool


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    GFS thinking a cold Northerly in 10 days time at least, bit of frost :)

    h850t850eu.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Hmmm... Models haven't a clue at the moment.

    ECMOPNH12_120_1.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I'm surprised no one has mentioned the latest ECM run:pac:

    Ah Blizzard7 has. It's as if the models are teasing us. The ECM now showing a potential easterly


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Was just about to mention that


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I'm surprised no one has mentioned the latest ECM run:pac:

    Ah Blizzard7 has. It's as if the models are teasing us. The ECM now showing a potential easterly

    Yeah we all love the ECM now because it shows what we want at 144 ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Yeah we all love the ECM now because it shows what we want at 144 ;)

    Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

    And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    pad199207 wrote: »
    Yeah we all love the ECM now because it shows what we want at 144 ;)


    The differences are there at +96hrs to be fair, I really don't know what to believe now though...


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

    And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.
    Typical !


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

    And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.

    Erratic is not the word for it :(


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    gabeeg wrote: »
    I was a bloody fool

    I'm a bloody genius

    It looks like a bit of a wishy-washy initial blast it plays out like the ECM shows (it won't), but with a proper beast to follow.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 755 ✭✭✭NAGDEFI


    gabeeg wrote: »
    I'm a bloody genius

    It looks like a bit of a wishy-washy initial blast it plays out like the ECM shows (it won't), but with a proper beast to follow.

    The beast is up there with Nessie, the Yeti, and the Dodo these years :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    That 18z though.....


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    pad199207 wrote: »
    That 18z though.....

    Please post charts or discussion of them


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    I assume he's talking about this

    441870.gif


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Wow
    Day 9 on this mornings ecm


  • Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Wow
    Day 9 on this mornings ecm

    Yes super run. No margin for error and cross model support is lacking but maybe as likely as anything at this stage


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Yes super run. No margin for error and cross model support is lacking but maybe as likely as anything at this stage

    Here’s the day 10 850 temps
    -12’s reaching Ireland
    In that kind of air pressure with that air flow,shower fetch would fa our south wexford Waterford and Cork with fairly hefty thundery snow showers blowing in there with absolutely no marginality whatsoever
    Snow would settle and stay all day

    Three caveats,it’s FI,there’s no model support this morning at all for this and post 96hrs upon which rock this route for cold either sinks the ship or sails her on into the ice,nothing is resolved with any confidence yet


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

    Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?


  • Registered Users Posts: 788 ✭✭✭Snowbiee21


    gabeeg wrote: »
    The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

    Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

    Very annoying tbh , we can’t see the get any model support whatsoever when the ecm goes good it seems to be on it’s own


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    gabeeg wrote: »
    The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

    Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

    At least for once an easterly on the ecm gets past the day 10 mark!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    At least for once an easterly on the ecm gets past the day 10 mark!

    It’s actually on this run at day 5!

    Historically once an 80’s easterly got going,it took 4 or 5 days to pull proper cold from it into Ireland
    So I’m more interested in the getting to this easterly than what’s at day 10
    I’ve no time at all for looking at FI in models and comparing how that output verifies
    They all have their faults
    Just because the ecm is more often right about mild than cold is no reason to diss it
    If you want the ecm or any model to show more cold for you more often move to Russia
    Anyway long night here in the maternity ward,I’m tired so nap time


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    The ECM cheered me up this morning ............. until I had a look at the UKMO which is crap!
    They are so different at +144 it really made me wonder if weather forecasting has advanced that much in the last 30 years with all the technology now available. Just my 2 cents worth this morning. :confused:

    We'll probably end up with something like this - a no-mans land of nothingness with a mid lat high.
    I think it will take the next Ice Age to get high latitude blocking ... either that or an asteroid impact. But on second thoughts the PV would probably survive an asteroid impact!

    gfs-0-180.png?6


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭typhoony


    the charts look about right to me, the modern winter for us, decent amplication but we are the sandwich in the middle with colder air digging east and west, but we miss out on it. usually we get quite pleasant benign weather, rather overcast and dull at times.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    First of the 12z madness, the ICON is much better than it's 00z run -

    iconnh-0-144.png?16-12


This discussion has been closed.
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