FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Interesting, GFS has been steady as a rock bringing in a cold easterly with almost universal ensemble support in the 192 hours + timeframe.

Caution needed through, ECM is not half as bullish.

In recent winters we have seen models show these easterlies with full ensemble support time and time again in FI only to evaporate.

In said Winters, you didn’t have things like SSW, negative NAO, minimal solar activity etc to back it up.

pauldry

I see GFS seems to have cold at day 9 every day.

Its sure to arrive for the June Bank Holiday isnt it?

At least it looks like becoming dry during the preceeding timeframe which after 7 months of non stop rain will be a relief to this part of the country.

Kermit.de.frog

This is a decent enough position at 168 with high pressure firmly in control of the GIN (Greenland, Iceland, Norway) corridor and a chance of undercutting of our high from the Atlantic, no point looking any further to be honest.

Neddyusa

pauldry wrote: »

I see GFS seems to have cold at day 9 every day.

Its sure to arrive for the June Bank Holiday isnt it?

At least it looks like becoming dry during the preceeding timeframe which after 7 months of non stop rain will be a relief to this part of the country.

Hear hear!
Couldn't care less if it's 10C or -10C at this stage, so long as it's dry

KingdomRushed

GFS sticking to its guns for at least the 4th run in a row for an exceptionally cold (and snowy) FI. Astonishing charts but FI.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS Control run 192 - well locked in to continental cold



Median

Kermit.de.frog

NAVGEM has an easterly entrenched by 168 hrs




Very much up for grabs at the moment. Maybe some movement later from the UKMO/ECM op runs (both are a little disappointing).

patneve2

Good GFS ensembles this morning but still as long way to go. Hopefully it will be a mid to high latitude cold break and it won't go the way of February 2012.

gabeeg

GFS 12z with yet another completely different route to cold - A dangerous looking northerly deep into FI.
I won't post a pic as it's simply not going to happen.

sryanbruen

gabeeg wrote: »

GFS 12z with yet another completely different route to cold - A dangerous looking northerly deep into FI.
I won't post a pic as it's simply not going to happen.

It’s basically the same as the GFS 18z from last night with low pressure all over the place whilst quite a block up to the north, very messy charts .

JCX BXC

I can't really see any easterlies in the 12z, and any cold is pushed back to near the end of the charts!

pad199207

JCX BXC wrote: »

I can't really see any easterlies in the 12z, and any cold is pushed back to near the end of the charts!

Yeah each run just adds another day to the Date to when the easterly has an affect on Ireland.

I said I’d give it to Wednesday to see if there’s anything substantial to go on, but quickly running out of any hope with this now.

I’d say will be dropped after 18z tonight.

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

I can't really see any easterlies in the 12z, and any cold is pushed back to near the end of the charts!

There are no easterlies on the GFS 12z OP, it's just a rather worse version of last night's Pub Run. If you've not noticed recently, the OP runs have been mild outliers in the ensembles - at least most of them have been.

There is no change at all on the GFS 12z ensemble mean.





Also, the ECM 00z ensembles had small upgrades for the negative NAO. They show the NAO going negative as early as Monday now.

BLIZZARD7

GEM is lovely this evening - ECM follow this please...

NAGDEFI

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah each run just adds another day to the Date to when the easterly has an affect on Ireland.

I said I’d give it to Wednesday to see if there’s anything substantial to go on, but quickly running out of any hope with this now.

I’d say will be dropped after 18z tonight.

12z GFS is one hell of a mess. Personally i'd give it til Saturday to see if projections sort themselves out. If the continued putting off of sustained cold until deep FI persists we're into winter 'garbage' time.

nacho libre

gabeeg wrote: »

GFS 12z with yet another completely different route to cold - A dangerous looking northerly deep into FI.
I won't post a pic as it's simply not going to happen.

Dangerous? Do you mean like the northerly in December 2010. Bring on the danger in that case!

sryanbruen

ECM 12z is so far struggling to get the high pressure up from the south; bit of a delay there for early next week on this run with the Polar Vortex still over Greenland. However, there is a low in the middle of the North Atlantic indicating the NAO should be getting closer to negative territory (regardless of what the OP here has to say in regards to the Polar Vortex and Icelandic Low).

The ECM continues to its train of inconsistency and unreliability this season. I'm really getting sick and tired of it.





I've been noticing that the lesser valued models like the GEM have been performing better in the last month which is quite significant in of itself - just look what it was showing for instance in the chart BLIZZARD7 posted for next Wednesday (+168 hrs). They've tended not to fluctuate as much as models like the GFS and especially the ECM (:rolleyes:) this Winter.

EDIT: Ryan Maue agrees apparently on the last point.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/963842224038522889

nacho libre

true, however the ECM still has the highest verification stats. It seems to me like the polar vortex is being stubborn but will behave in the end.
Even if it doesn't, we will at least get a few days of settled and cool weather. I for one am tired of all the rain of late.

typhoony

both ECM and GFS showing amplification beyond +192. Best chance this winter of seeing a notherly if we are on the right side of it, on the other hand we could get warm Southerly winds.

pad199207

typhoony wrote: »

both ECM and GFS showing amplification beyond +192. Best chance this winter of seeing a notherly if we are on the right side of it, on the other hand we could get warm Southerly winds.

If we don’t get the easterly then warm southerlies will do perfectly

nacho libre

Not a bad 7 day chart on the latest ukmo. Hopefully the ECM cops itself on soon:)

Donegal Storm

Haven't checked the models since last night and I see cold has been pushed even further back tonight, an all too familiar theme. I'll give it until the weekend before I switch from winter mode to spring sunshine mode

BLIZZARD7

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Haven't checked the models since last night and I see cold has been pushed even further back tonight, an all too familiar theme. I'll give it until the weekend before I switch from winter mode to spring sunshine mode

Switch all you want, whether we get the cold soon or not I see no spring warmth coming anytime soon into March...

nacho libre

The GFS is getting there in the end, but it is a slow process



And a Greenland high, eventually

BLIZZARD7

UKMO has the easterly landing at day 6 this morning !

Rebelbrowser

yeah good model agreement this morning. UKMO as above, ECM has no easterly at all and no sign of one, gfs has an easterly finally by 3 March and gem has an easterly by 25 Feb!

gabeeg

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

UKMO has the easterly landing at day 6 this morning !

That'd almost be a ninja easterly

Kingswood Rover

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Switch all you want, whether we get the cold soon or not I see no spring warmth coming anytime soon into March...

12 degrees over much of the country at the weekend according to the beeb.

JCX BXC

Kingswood Rover wrote: »

12 degrees over much of the country at the weekend according to the beeb.

The who?

highdef

JCX BXC wrote: »

The who?

The beeb....The BBC