FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

JCX BXC

highdef wrote: »

The beeb....The BBC

Oh goddddd I don't like that one

12c isn't particularly amazing, yeah it's mild but I won't be sitting outside enjoy the sunshine in a T-Shirt by any means!

gabeeg

The UKMO isn't alone in bringing an easterly to us by Wednesday. NAVGEM and CFS are also similar.
I realise that wouldn't typically be considered good company, but still.

If it's still there on the 12z I'll really get interested.

Rebelbrowser

No huge change on the 6z gfs. An easterly component by early March

gabeeg

gabeeg wrote: »

The UKMO isn't alone in bringing an easterly to us by Wednesday. NAVGEM and CFS are also similar.
I realise that wouldn't typically be considered good company, but still.

If it's still there on the 12z I'll really get interested.

ICON seems to be close enough to UKMO too.
JMA not too far off either.

I'm getting excited

TheMilkyPirate

gabeeg wrote: »

ICON seems to be close enough to UKMO too.
JMA not too far off either.

I'm getting excited

I wouldn't.

gabeeg

I was a bloody fool

JCX BXC

GFS thinking a cold Northerly in 10 days time at least, bit of frost

BLIZZARD7

Hmmm... Models haven't a clue at the moment.

nacho libre

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the latest ECM run:pac:

Ah Blizzard7 has. It's as if the models are teasing us. The ECM now showing a potential easterly

Snowbiee21

Was just about to mention that

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

I'm surprised no one has mentioned the latest ECM run:pac:

Ah Blizzard7 has. It's as if the models are teasing us. The ECM now showing a potential easterly

Yeah we all love the ECM now because it shows what we want at 144

nacho libre

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah we all love the ECM now because it shows what we want at 144

Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.

BLIZZARD7

pad199207 wrote: »

Yeah we all love the ECM now because it shows what we want at 144

The differences are there at +96hrs to be fair, I really don't know what to believe now though...

Snowbiee21

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.

Typical !

pad199207

nacho libre wrote: »

Yeah those doubters of the ECM:pac:. I always knew it would come good in the end:o:o

And now the UKMO model has gone slightly pear shaped.

Erratic is not the word for it

gabeeg

gabeeg wrote: »

I was a bloody fool

I'm a bloody genius

It looks like a bit of a wishy-washy initial blast it plays out like the ECM shows (it won't), but with a proper beast to follow.

NAGDEFI

gabeeg wrote: »

I'm a bloody genius

It looks like a bit of a wishy-washy initial blast it plays out like the ECM shows (it won't), but with a proper beast to follow.

The beast is up there with Nessie, the Yeti, and the Dodo these years

pad199207

That 18z though.....

pistolpetes11

pad199207 wrote: »

That 18z though.....

Please post charts or discussion of them

gabeeg

I assume he's talking about this

George Sunsnow

Wow
Day 9 on this mornings ecm

KingdomRushed

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Wow
Day 9 on this mornings ecm

Yes super run. No margin for error and cross model support is lacking but maybe as likely as anything at this stage

George Sunsnow

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Yes super run. No margin for error and cross model support is lacking but maybe as likely as anything at this stage

Here’s the day 10 850 temps
-12’s reaching Ireland
In that kind of air pressure with that air flow,shower fetch would fa our south wexford Waterford and Cork with fairly hefty thundery snow showers blowing in there with absolutely no marginality whatsoever
Snow would settle and stay all day

Three caveats,it’s FI,there’s no model support this morning at all for this and post 96hrs upon which rock this route for cold either sinks the ship or sails her on into the ice,nothing is resolved with any confidence yet

gabeeg

The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

Snowbiee21

gabeeg wrote: »

The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

Very annoying tbh , we can’t see the get any model support whatsoever when the ecm goes good it seems to be on it’s own

Rebelbrowser

gabeeg wrote: »

The only other model of note I could find that supports the ECM is the ARPEGE

Thoughts? - I know it's great for short term precip, but anyone got an opinion on it passed that?

At least for once an easterly on the ecm gets past the day 10 mark!

George Sunsnow

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

At least for once an easterly on the ecm gets past the day 10 mark!

It’s actually on this run at day 5!

Historically once an 80’s easterly got going,it took 4 or 5 days to pull proper cold from it into Ireland
So I’m more interested in the getting to this easterly than what’s at day 10
I’ve no time at all for looking at FI in models and comparing how that output verifies
They all have their faults
Just because the ecm is more often right about mild than cold is no reason to diss it
If you want the ecm or any model to show more cold for you more often move to Russia
Anyway long night here in the maternity ward,I’m tired so nap time

Elmer Blooker

The ECM cheered me up this morning ............. until I had a look at the UKMO which is crap!
They are so different at +144 it really made me wonder if weather forecasting has advanced that much in the last 30 years with all the technology now available. Just my 2 cents worth this morning.

We'll probably end up with something like this - a no-mans land of nothingness with a mid lat high.
I think it will take the next Ice Age to get high latitude blocking ... either that or an asteroid impact. But on second thoughts the PV would probably survive an asteroid impact!

typhoony

the charts look about right to me, the modern winter for us, decent amplication but we are the sandwich in the middle with colder air digging east and west, but we miss out on it. usually we get quite pleasant benign weather, rather overcast and dull at times.

BLIZZARD7

First of the 12z madness, the ICON is much better than it's 00z run -