FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

gabeeg

The ECM is all over the shop. They all might be though.

This is great

sryanbruen

Loving the consistency in the GFS ensembles for blocking going to occur over Iceland, barely any shift in the GFS 12z ensembles for Reykjavik here in comparison to earlier. One notable difference is the GFS OP run which, for most of it, shows quite a block up there but then changes dramatically towards the very end of the run and pressure plunges to below 1000mb.

JCX BXC

Just gonna throw in the GFS attempt at an easterly snow event on the 25th for the craic





Take from this what you will, it's 300 hours away

nacho libre

A deep easterly.
I remember a poster by that name;). He would surely be happy with this chart if he was around:

Donegal Storm

Better charts than last night but I feel this is going down a very familiar path. Two days ago we were looking at an easterly starting around the 18th, now its the 21st or even the 22nd...

sryanbruen

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Better charts than last night but I feel this is going down a very familiar path. Two days ago we were looking at an easterly starting around the 18th, now its the 21st or even the 22nd...

I do not see any change at all, the 18th is still the date of uncertainty/turning point if you pay close attention to the ensembles.

BLIZZARD7

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Better charts than last night but I feel this is going down a very familiar path. Two days ago we were looking at an easterly starting around the 18th, now its the 21st or even the 22nd...

Yeah still looking at the 18/19th for the change in pattern - I would be more inclined to agree with you though if we didn't have this extreme ssw currently ongoing... Even if there is any delay it's still a question of when not if for me.

sryanbruen

Much better agreement now between the ECM and GFS 18z. GFS a bit less amplified than earlier and now inline with ECM.

At least they do show the prospects of a high building over us next week for a start.

Until we can get an easterly or perhaps a **good frontal snow event** for the east here, I will vouch for this because I'm getting sick and tired of the rain.



It shows a bit of an easterly at +264 hrs but the high pressure is a bit too close to be delivering a bitter easterly. Nevertheless, it would certainly be frosty underneath this high.

sryanbruen

1040mb area of high pressure around Iceland on the GFS 18z at +312 hrs. :rolleyes:

At least the OP is showing itself in agreement with the ensembles a bit now on high pressure around Iceland.

gabeeg

The GFS is going mental in deep FI

BLIZZARD7

These are the charts one would expect given the SSW, lots more strange patterns going to show in the next few days. Canadian vortex obliterated on the 18z and replaced with an enormous blocking high.

nacho libre

gabeeg wrote: »

The GFS is going mental in deep FI

I will be going mental with excitement if this chart is being shown at t24:D

sryanbruen

GFS 18z control run.

nacho libre

Bye bye mr Vortex. A retrogressing high.

Then a soon to be incoming north easterly plunge of cold air winging it's way to us:)

There is now broad model consensus on a high in our vicinity...
So at the very worst we will have a spell of cool and settled weather, but surely with the pv all but destroyed the high will then move further to the north or north west.

George Sunsnow

nacho libre wrote: »

Bye bye mr Vortex. A retrogressing high.

Then a soon to be incoming north easterly plunge of cold air winging it's way to us:)

There is now broad model consensus on a high in our vicinity...
So at the very worst we will have a spell of cool and settled weather, but surely with the pv all but destroyed the high will then move further to the north or north west.

The high will want to move to warmth and as that won’t be Europe,the only way is up!

Kermit.de.frog

I'm getting the same visions I had in 2010

ninebeanrows

good morning

Kermit.de.frog

For anyone who does not know what a vindictive finger looks like...

km79

Weathercheck wrote: »

good morning

Does that mean warm settled weather
Please say yes

highdef

km79 wrote: »

Does that mean warm settled weather
Please say yes

Oh, you should be a comedian :pac::pac::pac:

It means very cold with a good chance of wintry showers in Eastern (and possibly Southern) areas, low humidity and a distinct windchill.

sryanbruen

The GFS 06z continues to tease. Upper airs don't look that impressive given the synoptics.

sryanbruen

sryanbruen wrote: »

The GFS 06z continues to tease. Upper airs don't look that impressive given the synoptics.

Source of that easterly appears to be the Med though, so not drawing off any real cold pool of air.

sryanbruen

The 17th/18th continues to be the turning point of high pressure building from the south, right on the tip of FI.

Let's get the high pressure in before even thinking about the easterlies. All historical cold spells start somewhere with either a Scandinavian high, retrogression to a Greenland high or high pressure over top of the UK and Ireland. For example, before the December 2009 cold spell took off on the 16th, an area of high pressure brought frosts to us from the 10th to the 15th after an unsettled start to the month.

Just some examples of the many models showing the 17th/18th as the turning point.

Donegal Storm

Averages still showing a very strong signal for an easterly flow though still more than a week away so major caution advised as always. Now looks like the 22nd before any real cold reaches us, hopefully its not the 23rd this time tomorrow..

No matter how the high positions itself a far drier and more settled spell looks likely and I'd gladly take that in itself

sryanbruen

GFS 06z control run.

patneve2

Imagine if we got something like that GFS control run chart above. Would be sub zero temps right on the coast with onshore winds and heavy snow showers

Seriously though, the models have started hinting at some interesting maneuvers in Europe over the next few weeks. Model watching has just gotten very interesting. Fingers crossed

BLIZZARD7

patneve2 wrote: »

Imagine if we got something like that GFS control run chart above. Would be sub zero temps right on the coast with onshore winds and heavy snow showers

Seriously though, the models have started hinting at some interesting maneuvers in Europe over the next few weeks. Model watching has just gotten very interesting. Fingers crossed

Indeed there's even a lovely kink on the isobars over the Irish Sea, Lake effect snow would be in full flow. -12/-13c uppers with some strength in the sun to aid convective activity. I miss the days when the biggest concern was maybe ending up under the IOM or Anglesey shadow for a few hours...I.e Dec 2010

Elmer Blooker

Deleted User wrote: »

Source of that easterly appears to be the Med though, so not drawing off any real cold pool of air.

It doesn't necessarily work that way, the isobars generally don't match the wind direction in an Atlantic against a block battleground situation when an occlusion grinds to a halt.
Look up any big snowstorm chart in the archives and you will see they don't look like easterly blasts which is what they were.
I think I'm getting ahead of myself here, its far too soon to be talking about battleground situations as these mouth watering charts are FI.



This chart on the day of the Blizzard of the century doesn't even look cold!

The charts for the three day snowstorm of Jan 25-27 1917 look like a rather mild south easterly.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/slp/1917/Rslp19170125.gif

pad199207

Another tense 12z about to roll out

sryanbruen

pad199207 wrote: »

Another tense 12z about to roll out

Nah, just settled, going back to the GFS 00z.