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Winter 2017-18: Discussion

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Comments

  • #1452
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Basically mid winter's day today. 15 days of January behind us and 15 to go. December brought some good snowfall to a lot of us. For that alone it's the best winter since 2010/2011 in terms of snowfall for me. And we have half a winter to go. I'm looking at the model charts since 2007. At present i actually can't see any trend. The latest GFS is zonal. The ECM has us in a kind of coll in a weeks time. The UKMO more like the later. So anything can happen really.


  • #1453
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Last night was amazing and certainly an unforgettable event, but can it get better than that? Yes it certainly can and I expect it to for certain in the next few years.

    I'm starting to firm up on what February 2018 could look like. It has been a very difficult February to forecast and as you saw from my Winter forecast, there was little to no evidence pointing towards what February 2018 could be, thus why I gave a complete guess for the month.

    The NAO is predicted to be positive for the rest of January, or at least on the positive side of neutral which means that pest to the southwest (yes, the Azores High) is still going to give us pains in our potential for cold.

    The AO is going to go negative for the rest of January according to the GEFS meaning blocking is going to get going over the Arctic Circle. There are strong signs that the southeastern half of the USA could be in for another freeze though.

    I already said about the stratosphere yesterday that the Polar Vortex is being dramatically disturbed by mini little warming events trying to go into the Arctic Circle.

    ENSO was always supportive (historically) of some sort of significant cold spell in February but then again, there were a few exceptions in the analogue so I took this with a pinch of salt.

    It all looks mixed for us for February. Some things are going for quite a cold spell in February at some stage whilst others are showing a close to average month. I will not put any money on what February will be like but the most likely scenario is that March will be the cold month.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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  • #1454
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Yesterday's event was spectacular because it really went against what I generally believe in. I am always quick to downplay Atlantic polar events because in general they rarely deliver proper snow for the majority of Ireland away from high ground and usual places in Ulster.

    This winter has been very different. All of the Atlantic polar events so far this year have delivered precipitation across the country, it may not have ended up being snow everywhere, but the precipitation had no trouble moving across the country. Already this winter, we saw some significant snow across the midlands and much of the mid-west, particularly parts of Galway, Offaly and Mayo.

    Then there was the rain-snow-rain event during Christmas week which gave a very temporary fall of snow here before reverting back to rain.

    Yesterday's event shocked me and ended up producing a decent fall of snow by anyone's standards, an event I won't forget for a long time. We will have 5 to 6 weeks of Winter left, anything can happen during that time frame. March can also produce a real sting in it's tail. We could well end up with more events similar to yesterday over the next 5 to 8 weeks. March often see's easterly's take place too. I've also witnessed a few significant April snow events in my lifetime so anythings possible, especially this Winter as it is behaving just so differently to many of the winters since 1990.


  • #1455
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,882 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Im between ashbourne and dunshauglin today and theres a big thaw on here, even feeling grand in the sun, wont be much snow left here by evening, not sure what its like at home but i'll guess its pretty much the same.


  • #1456
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Yesterday was an exception to a rule as it’s only the 2nd time in 50+ years that I remember settled snow here from a westerly

    Apart from Gonzo’s area ,it wasn’t that spectacular either
    A here today gone tomorrow localized affair
    Crack if under it
    Not much crack if like the majority less under it
    More notable because it affected the greater Dublin area


  • #1457
    KingdomRushed
    Registered Users Posts: 471 ✭✭KingdomRushed


    Interesting that yesterday was perceived as delivering significant snow to Dublin by many. In Dublin 3 snow never settled. I doubt more than 1cm accumulated anywhere in inner city, maybe 2cm further out. Yeah it snowed, an event? Only because of how extremely unusual lying snow has now become in Dublin.

    I have yet to wake up to lying snow since 2010. And by lying snow I mean something you can leave a footprint in


  • #1458
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    KingdomRushed wrote: »
    Interesting that yesterday was perceived as delivering significant snow to Dublin by many. In Dublin 3 snow never settled. I doubt more than 1cm accumulated anywhere in inner city, maybe 2cm further out. Yeah it snowed, an event? Only because of how extremely unusual lying snow has now become in Dublin.

    I have yet to wake up to lying snow since 2010. And by lying snow I mean something you can leave a footprint in

    True
    But that is because Dublin’s best source for snow are Irish Sea streamers and they need a potent deep northeasterly or easterly
    There’s been little to be honest in terms of deep source or none of those since 2010

    The impression in the east one or two day wonder of a westerly or northwesterly makes is considerably lessened by what a proper sourced cold like 2010 can do
    If boards lives another 10 or 15 years and there’s no repeat,most posters on this forum won’t remember what snow is
    That’s unlikely though


  • #1459
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Rock Lesnar wrote: »
    Im between ashbourne and dunshauglin today and theres a big thaw on here, even feeling grand in the sun, wont be much snow left here by evening, not sure what its like at home but i'll guess its pretty much the same.

    yep really disappearing fast now.Very little left in the village of Dunshaughlin itself. I am 1km away from there and the garden is still mostly white. Fields, roads and most footpaths are now completely clear.


  • #1460
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Nearly all gone in Maynooth by 11am. Was nice to see a bit of snow last night but this is why I find it hard to get at all excited by westerlies, 5 minutes after its settled its already just a slushy mess that's more annoying than anything. Good dry powdery snow is where its at


  • #1461
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Seeing the snow falling is all I personally care about.

    It sticking is just an added bonus.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



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  • #1462
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Seeing the snow falling is all I personally care about.

    It sticking is just an added bonus.

    Didn't see either yesterday :)


  • #1463
    Donegal Storm
    Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    Meh I find a good heavy hail shower just as exciting as seeing snow falling. The magic with snow for me is when transforms the whole landscape, the bright deadly quiet nights etc. We'd need a good strong northerly or north easterly for that unfortunately


  • #1464
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Donegal Storm wrote: »
    Meh I find a good heavy hail shower just as exciting as seeing snow falling. The magic with snow for me is when transforms the whole landscape, the bright deadly quiet nights etc. We'd need a good strong northerly or north easterly for that unfortunately

    How about a scene like this? ;)

    zfssAMo.jpg

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #1465
    Elmer Blooker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    No ECM 12z this evening? No sign of it, tried several sources but nothing?
    Probably just as well, who wants to see another phantom easterly?


  • #1466
    MJohnston
    Registered Users Posts: 10,673 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    Elmer Blooker wrote: »
    No ECM 12z this evening? No sign of it, tried several sources but nothing?
    Probably just as well, who wants to see another phantom easterly?

    Weather.us has it


  • #1467
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    18z gfs still showing lots of snow around tomorrow....


  • #1468
    Soccarboy11
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Soccarboy11


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    18z gfs still showing lots of snow around tomorrow....

    How's it looking for us down south?


  • #1469
    nagdefy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    My niece and nephews have been off school for 2 weeks and 2 days for weather related events since October!

    A full week for Ophelia. A full week in December for snow. And now Tuesday and Wednesday this week for snow. First since 2010 and prior to that 1991 i'd say.


  • #1470
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    Did M.T Craniums winter forecast call for a mild Februrary? In a la nina winter it may well be we end up with a quite cold March.
    With your post in mind, if we think back to three days before the start of the epic Winter of 1947, who would have said, based on that chart, we would get a winter of the century?
    So it just shows we never know. If the monster Russian high were to link up with the arctic high we could be laughing and the pv would start to cry.
    Obviously it's very unlikely to happen, though- but obviously in those rare winters everything goes just right from the perspective of a snow enthusiast.

    Didn't really say anything specific about February: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105160043&postcount=175.

    As I've been saying nacho libre, this Winter is just a teaser of what you might see in the next few years. A lot of very cold Winters tend to have teaser Winters before them like 1945-46 or 2008-09, even 2007-08 was a teaser at times with the brief easterly in January, very anticyclonic and frosty middle halves of December and February.

    A cold March is highly likely as I've been showing - yes ENSO is one of the main things why.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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  • #1471
    giveitholly
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    18z gfs still showing lots of snow around tomorrow....

    where is kermit


  • #1472
    nacho libre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Didn't really say anything specific about February: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105160043&postcount=175.

    As I've been saying nacho libre, this Winter is just a teaser of what you might see in the next few years. A lot of very cold Winters tend to have teaser Winters before them like 1945-46 or 2008-09, even 2007-08 was a teaser at times with the brief easterly in January, very anticyclonic and frosty middle halves of December and February.
    .

    I see.
    So are you saying December 2010 was courtesy of a low Solar Minimum?

    I am just watching the BBC news now and the amount of snow they have in Soctland is making me envious!


  • #1473
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    nacho libre wrote: »
    I see.
    So are you saying December 2010 was courtesy of a low Solar Minimum?

    I am just watching the BBC news now and the amount of snow they have in Soctland is making me envious!

    Yes along with a tripole in May 2010 and very stubborn northern blocking.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #1474
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Aidan Mcgivern on his latest Met office video says next weeks mild pattern on current signals may change to something colder but dryer in 10 days
    Obviously the caveat being far FI

    Models do have their moments though when the calculations are easier


  • #1475
    patneve2
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,576 ✭✭✭patneve2


    The PV has been weird this winter. Cold temperatures in the stratosphere but a freezing, compact and constantly rotating PV has never really appeared. Regarding the rest of the winter, I definitely wouldn't write it off. Take the ECM at 120 hrs: ok nothing inspiring at a local Ireland level but from a northern hemisphere point of view I wouldn't classify the PV as particularly strong and in fact I don't think it would take much for it to be under serious threat. If any mid to high latitude blocking does occur, hopefully we will be on the right side of it!

    topkarten.php?map=2&model=ecm&var=1&run=12&time=120&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=24#mapref


  • #1476
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,589 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    So yet another second half of Jan with no proper cold spell likely,same thing every yr going back to the 80,s.


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  • #1477
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Billcarson wrote: »
    So yet another second half of Jan with no proper cold spell likely,same thing every yr going back to the 80,s.

    Depends really on your definition of proper cold spell because second half of January 2011 was quite cold.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

    Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1



  • #1478
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,589 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Depends really on your definition of proper cold spell because second half of January 2011 was quite cold.

    Granted the 3 rd wk of Jan 2011 was cold. Cold and frosty spell but nothing too out of the ordinary. No snow that lasts for at least a number of days on he ground type of thing with temps staying below zero much of the time. Say something like first half of Jan 2010. Second half of Jan have been devoid of anything like that since the mid 80s


  • #1479
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Granted the 3 rd wk of Jan 2011 was cold. Cold and frosty spell but nothing too out of the ordinary. No snow that lasts for at least a number of days on he ground type of thing with temps staying below zero much of the time. Say something like first half of Jan 2010. Second half of Jan have been devoid of anything like that since the mid 80s

    If you're considering snow in the equation, then yeah it was not at all. However, it was a very frosty spell and the month was quite significantly cold overall as a result of those frosts as well as the ones in the first week of the month after a mild and murky end to December 2010. FYI, it was including the 4th week of January 2011, not just the 3rd week.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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  • #1480
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,589 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Don't think it was all the 4th week though most of the 3rd week and going into some of the 4th if I remember right. Anyway i thought it was another forgetful or rather forgetful second half of Jan.


  • #1481
    flc37ie6ojwkh8
    Closed Accounts Posts: 59 ✭✭flc37ie6ojwkh8


    I think it is going to be specially warm.


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  • #1482
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Billcarson wrote: »
    Don't think it was all the 4th week though most of the 3rd week and going into some of the 4th if I remember right. Anyway i thought it was another forgetful or rather forgetful second half of Jan.

    What happened was this:

    After a low pushed through on the 15th giving quite a bit of heavy rain to some places, high pressure started ridging up over us on the 17th bringing plenty of sunshine to be enjoyed. Winds were very slack so left a lot of frost to form. Soon, this high started to retrogress into the Atlantic giving off to cloudier skies towards the weekend of the 22nd/23rd. Then a front pushed down from the north on the 24th which would give away to some showery rain into the 25th making things that bit milder but certainly not warm, like 6 to 8c at most. The low descended down to the English Channel after with a high pressure to the north of the country allowing weak easterlies to form which brought in a lot of cloud and severe frost - the lowest temperature of the month was during this period as you saw in the Irish Weather Statistics thread. The high then sank southwards and low pressure formed to the northwest bringing in our normal zonal pattern for February.

    NOAA_1_2011011912_1.png

    NOAA_1_2011012712_1.png

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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  • #1483
    Billcarson
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,589 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    Think we will have to wait for next winter or the winter after it for our next proper cold spell. Always thought this winter was too soon. I have high hopes for many of the next few.


  • #1484
    Assetbacked
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,969 ✭✭✭Assetbacked


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    True
    But that is because Dublin’s best source for snow are Irish Sea streamers and they need a potent deep northeasterly or easterly
    There’s been little to be honest in terms of deep source or none of those since 2010

    The impression in the east one or two day wonder of a westerly or northwesterly makes is considerably lessened by what a proper sourced cold like 2010 can do
    If boards lives another 10 or 15 years and there’s no repeat,most posters on this forum won’t remember what snow is
    That’s unlikely though

    Dublin rarely gets the exciting events the rest of the country gets. Ophelia ended up being relatively tame in the end. Snow didn't stick in Dublin 1 recently and not much ice around as well.


  • #1485
    Harry Palmr
    Closed Accounts Posts: 40,061 ✭✭✭✭Harry Palmr


    Looks like an increasingly mild outlook for the next 10 days or so.


  • #1486
    Gonzo
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,999 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I don't mind a mild 10-14 days as long as it doesn't end up being mild for the rest of the winter. Since the beginning of November we've only had a few days of 10C+ it seems, and these heating bills are going to be very high.


  • #1487
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Gonzo wrote: »
    I don't mind a mild 10-14 days as long as it doesn't end up being mild for the rest of the winter. Since the beginning of November we've only had a few days of 10C+ it seems, and these heating bills are going to be very high.

    Signs of anticyclonic gloom on the charts tonight for early February after this unsettled interval for the end of January, so they're taking baby steps in improving..... as was expected.

    Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/

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  • #1488
    Oscar Bravo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,243 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo


    Plenty of variety across the country today . 11am
    Sherkin , strong westerly wind gusting 45 knots and 12 degrees
    Knock , light easterly wind and temperature hovering at 0


  • #1489
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Weds , in the early hours, might be a very windy and potentially very wet across the country. Again under a strong jet. During the day possibly remaining quite windy on Atlantic coasts.

    tempresult_lvl3.gif

    tempresult_qvh3.gif



    rAzOpb2.png

    poptJBJ.png

    gfCXPrY.png


  • #1490
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    A lot of rainfall in parts predicted between now and Sun evening. Breezy too from the SW and later veering more W.

    UgKjTCg.png

    39-777UK_mrs8.GIF

    arpegeuk-25-30-0_yjf4.png

    aj4zUSg.png

    Big rise in Temps.

    tempresult_jpw0.gif


  • #1491
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    Stunningly sunny here in West Clare


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  • #1492
    Squeaksoutloud
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 556 ✭✭✭Squeaksoutloud


    Interesting to see our European neighbours are faring even worse than us!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jan/19/aint-no-sunshine-winter-darkest-europe


  • #1493
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Stunningly sunny here in West Clare

    Last 3 hours have been with unbroken sunshine! Relatively mild but breezy.


  • #1494
    km79
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 48,266 ✭✭✭✭km79


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Stunningly sunny here in West Clare

    Dull and chilly in east Galway !


  • #1495
    Meteorite58
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    Last 3 hours have been with unbroken sunshine! Relatively mild but breezy.

    Same here in Kerry, quite a breeze on the coast but enjoyable once wrapped up well.

    Got up to 10.8C and currently 8.9C and clouded over with tonight's rain not far away.

    5Cf1V6u.jpg?1

    NASSA


    jR6AI1u.jpg?1

    kPvUfla.png


  • #1496
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Scenes like those will become more common next weekend if tonight’s ECM is to be believed

    A warm azores high heading into Europe looks like setting up a Bartlett and Athens’s Ski season should be safe this year again as said Bartlett will on past experience not move in a hurry scurrying all the Scandinavia/Siberian artic deep cold southeast with Ireland getting none.

    96c5e5c5cdea0df7617ad657dd3c6836.jpg


  • #1497
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    George Sunsnow wrote: »
    Scenes like those will become more common next weekend if tonight’s ECM is to be believed

    A warm azores high heading into Europe looks like setting up a Bartlett and Athens’s Ski season should be safe this year again as said Bartlett will on past experience not move in a hurry scurrying all the Scandinavia/Siberian artic deep cold southeast with Ireland getting none.

    96c5e5c5cdea0df7617ad657dd3c6836.jpg

    Hi George, key phrase is "if tonight's ECM is to be believed".

    Don't look beyond four days, the models are all over the place at the moment. This winter has been colder than the last few and we are now 11 days off the season's coldest month, I wouldn't be writing winter off so quickly!!!! If we were in the second week of March I would say fair enough but we're only coming to the end of the third week of January!!!


    D


  • #1498
    George Sunsnow
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    I’m only analyzing the chart ;)
    I know it’s hokum but it could happen
    All we’ve had so far are flukey marginal snow events to be REALISTIC which is probably not too much of a divergence off our normal winters on the cold side as warmer ones are too
    Except with the latter you don’t have these micro regional snowfalls at all


  • #1499
    JCX BXC
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,281 ✭✭✭✭JCX BXC


    However that would provide some beautiful frosty nights which I'll take with pleasure.

    However I'd rather that chart in July.


  • #1500
    sryanbruen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    JCX BXC wrote: »
    However that would provide some beautiful frosty nights which I'll take with pleasure.

    However I'd rather that chart in July.

    If you were to go by the ECM specifically, it would be mild and overcast :confused: - thus anticyclonic gloom.

    You'd want the high to be centred over us or further northwards than it shows on the ECM for frosts, sunshine etc.

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  • #1501
    esposito
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭esposito


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    If you were to go by the ECM specifically, it would be mild and overcast :confused: - thus anticyclonic gloom.

    You'd want the high to be centred over us or further northwards than it shows on the ECM for frosts, sunshine etc.

    Yeah hopefully it will drift northwards for some frosty nights to occur at least. Really hope it dosen’t turn out to be a Bartlett high. What’s the latest on SSW?


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