Winter 2017-18: Discussion

M.T. Cranium

Loughc wrote: »

Bit rude coming unannounced... I don't have any biscuits in for her..

No worries, she will have a bag of biscuits, in fact everyone north of about a Drogheda to Galway line may be biting the biscuit fairly early on Thursday.

I posted some thoughts on the alert thread, basically expect a very gusty wind accompanied by bands of wintry showers some of which could drop heavy snow, the thicknesses fall very fast on Thursday indicating two things, wind gust potential above just the normal "geostrophic wind" which is itself quite strong, and freezing level falling to near sea level.

Bands will of course try to find a path of least resistance meaning that one may set up from Donegal Bay through lower terrain in Leitrim and Sligo into the midlands. Another likely band location would be through central NI into Louth and out towards northwest Wales. A third band could be expected to hit the gap between Antrim and southwest Scotland heading towards the north end of the Isle of Man.

These bands could easily produce thunder-sleet, snow, hail or various wintry mixes.

Probably mostly cold sunshine in lee of southeast mountains and remnants of central wintry showers trying to make it out to about Kilkenny.

Would not rule out almost similar conditions in west Munster, the greater elevation differences there somewhat compensate for the weaker surface gradients being shown on short-range meso-scale models tonight. But large parts of central Munster may see more wind than wintry precip.

Not quite the "Greenland express" scenario but reminds me of that (those were the days, my friend ... )

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

N

Not quite the "Greenland express" scenario but reminds me of that (those were the days, my friend ... )

Indeed, froze were the days, M.T. Cranium

Came across a good article by Liam Dutton about the perils of forecasting snow in advance

As an example, once I left work after a night shift at BBC Television Centre in Shepherd’s Bush and it was raining outside.

By the time I had reached Ealing – just five miles further west into the suburbs, it was snowing heavily, with a covering of snow on the ground. I phoned work to let them know that it was snowing, and they said that it was still raining in Shepherds Bush!

https://www.channel4.com/news/by/liam-dutton/blogs/why-you-shouldnt-believe-a-uk-snow-forecast-more-than-three-days-ahead

Clonmel1000

Thoroughly miserable day howling wind wet and cold. Desperate day to be out and about. Temp about 10 degrees but feels so much colder.

MJohnston

Another reminder today of why mild winter days are something nobody should be wishing for!

Clonmel1000

How can you say that? A dry mild winter day is exactly what I’d like today.

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

How can you say that? A dry mild winter day is exactly what I’d like today doesn't exist!

FYP!

Seriously though Clonmel, as a general rule mild means wet, as the mild weather from Southern/South Western winds which are moisture laden.

On an aside, it's actually bone dry here in West Clare, not much accumulation from the earlier rain!

highdef

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

How can you say that? A dry mild winter day is exactly what I’d like today.

Agreed, it's very pleasant out there today, at least in Dublin anyway. If it's not cold and snowy, this is my second favourite type of weather in winter

Clonmel1000

We’ve head plenty of benign days recently not to cold dry and easy to get about in. It’s wet and windy today and chilly. I take your point about mild weather often being accompanied with rain but certainly not always. It looks like a few biting cold days ahead but hopefully it’ll be dry and ice free. Snow on top of the mountains in the north west is going to have little disruption on most.

MJohnston

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

How can you say that? A dry mild winter day is exactly what I’d like today.

I can say that because 9 times out of 10, a mild winter day means a windy, wet, mild winter day. Dry and mild and winter just don't go together in Ireland.

Which is why I prefer cold, dry, and calm days, because they're far more likely to happen.

sryanbruen

To answer to people on me not liking the shorter days and longer nights, it gives me the sense that the day's almost over even when it's only 5 o'clock. I don't like that, I want the day to go on as long as possible because of things such as school, my hobbies etc.

I do not have people screaming in my area, in fact it's very quiet so that's not a problem to me at any time of year even Halloween unless my neighbours are having a party.

My favourite weather is sunshine, not snow. Snow is my second favourite. My favourite months for weather tend to be the very sunny ones such as the likes of the majority of 2010, May 2017, May 2016, April 2015 etc. With the shorter days comes less sun and I don't like that.

Not to mention, the difficulty of getting around when it's dark especially in places with a lack of street lights.

Snow during the night is no different than during the day for me, they're both absolute beautiful sights.

About mild and dry days in Winter, I don't like them especially if there's a lack of sun which is highly more likely than to have a lot of sun. Mild and very sunny is a very rare combination for a Winter day in Ireland. One such day for me was 22 January 2016. This day brought maximums widely of 10-13c in scattered showers. I escaped the showers and instead had a lot of sunshine in 12c.... which was very nice. It felt weird because it was the Winter season but it was nice.

The drier, milder months in Winter tend to be very dull on average as a matter of fact. The driest December on record, 1991, was also the dullest December on record for many places with parts recording less than 20 hours of sunshine. 1991/92 was a very dry Winter overall also and it was the dullest Winter on record in Malin Head.

Mild, dry and cloudy is my third least favourite kind of weather with cold and dull, cold and wet being my first two least favourites.

Today here was cloudy, mild and dry but windy. Not a terrible day here but not great either.

JCX BXC

In regards to feeling like the days over, often that's a mitigating factor for me, it's nice to relax perhaps on front of the TV or even a nice cup of tea, the same goes for rain, it's not nice all the time however it's nice to have a dirty day to relax in the warm indoors.

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

In regards to feeling like the days over, often that's a mitigating factor for me, it's nice to relax perhaps on front of the TV or even a nice cup of tea, the same goes for rain, it's not nice all the time however it's nice to have a dirty day to relax in the warm indoors.

That's all I ever do :P.

Clonmel1000

JCX BXC wrote: »

In regards to feeling like the days over, often that's a mitigating factor for me, it's nice to relax perhaps on front of the TV or even a nice cup of tea, the same goes for rain, it's not nice all the time however it's nice to have a dirty day to relax in the warm indoors.

Unfortunately most people can’t stay indoors on a dirty day what with work kids hobbies and life in general. Someday hopefully!

JCX BXC

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

Unfortunately most people can’t stay indoors on a dirty day what with work kids hobbies and life in general. Someday hopefully!

I have work, there's a magical thing called a car Clonmel!

I'm speaking for a personal perspective here, I'm not going to assume what everyone else wants/likes, nor do I think it's wise for anyone to do so.

MJohnston

I lived in California for almost 2 years, and nobody could understand why I hated the weather - pretty much just constant days of sunshine, the only difference between summer and winter being that it could reach 35+ in summer. Aside from that extreme heat, the continual warm sunshine actually made me miserable, and I think it has something to do with my Irish genetics! Here, when there's sunny and warm weather, you feel the need to use it to its fullest, because you know a rainy day will be just around the corner. There, you don't get the rainy days, so there are weekends when you just want to have one of those awful rainy, windy, sit in with a good book and a warm cup of tea, kind of days - instead when you're feeling lazy, you have this blazing sunshine outside and the guilt sets in.

Plus, I always say, oppressive conditions build character, and Californians...gods bless em, they have pretty much everything there is to have but that.

Danno

MJohnston wrote: »

...Dry and mild and winter just don't go together in Ireland...

December 2001 - an exceptionally sunny and mild period from around the 7th 'till near Christmas with many days into the low teens under practically unbroken sunshine. It was a little like 1995's Indian Summer part 2!

sryanbruen

Danno wrote: »

December 2001 - an exceptionally sunny and mild period from around the 7th 'till near Christmas with many days into the low teens under practically unbroken sunshine. It was a little like 1995's Indian Summer part 2!

As I've said to nagdefy before:

sryanbruen wrote: »

2001/02 was a front loaded Winter with a cold, dry and sunny December but a very mild and wet January/February - the mildest January on record. The IMT for the month was 4.9c, which is -0.7c below the average. There was little to no rain during mid-month from the 7th to the 19th. With that came plenty of sunshine. In fact, it was Ireland's sunniest December on record with 2010 taking a safe second. Cork Airport recorded 104 hours of sunshine, a new record for December. As to be expected with such a sunny month, there'd be a lot of clear skies. Clear skies in Winter leads to frost. December was full of severe frosts. -9.0c was the lowest maximum of the month. Some places had their third consecutive White Christmas - that picture of snow was indeed Christmas Day.

Information as always is originally from Met Éireann

Gonzo

hard to believe it is 12/13C outside. Skies are very dark and wind would cut you in two even tho it's not that strong, damp rather than wet but feeling only about 5C. I've often felt warmer during sunny 'ice' days.

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

As I've said to nagdefy before:

But up until the 15th daytime maxes were above 10C and there was wall to wall sunshine most days. Many days in the first half of the month reached 12-15C. The slack winds made it feel spring like by day. Late November 2001 was also very mild. That's why myself and Danno have such memories of that November to mid December period in 2001. I remember being out in Dalkey around the 10th December 2001 and it felt so warm in the brilliant 13C sunshine. The frosts from mid month and cold end make the stats below average but the month in memory sticks out.

Certain months stick in the memory.. June and August 1995, July 1989, January 1982 and 1987, February 1986, March 2013, July 2013, December 2010 and so on. The mild November and then remarkably sunny, beautiful days of the first half of December 2001 are as memorable. A day that reaches 13C in the daytime can easily be brought to a below average temperature if the night is 0C and you get a cold northerly blast at the end of the month with 2 and 3C daytime temps and -7C at night.

That's why there are lies, damn lies and statistics sometimes For example January 1982 had an average of 4.5C in Kilkenny station, around normal. But that stat hid a bigger picture.

December 2001 from Met Archives http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly-weather-reports.asp

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

But up until the 15th daytime maxes were above 10C and there was wall to wall sunshine most days. Many days in the first half of the month reached 12-15C. The slack winds made it feel spring like by day. Late November 2001 was also very mild. That's why myself and Danno have such memories of that November to mid December period in 2001. I remember being out in Dalkey around the 10th December 2001 and it felt so warm in the brilliant 13C sunshine. The frosts from mid month and cold end make the stats below average but the month in memory sticks out.

Certain months stick in the memory.. June and August 1995, July 1989, January 1982 and 1987, February 1986, March 2013, July 2013, December 2010 and so on. The mild November and then remarkably sunny, beautiful days of the first half of December 2001 are as memorable. A day that reaches 13C in the daytime can easily be brought to a below average temperature if the night is 0C and you get a cold northerly blast at the end of the month with 2 and 3C daytime temps and -7C at night.

That's why there are lies, damn lies and statistics sometimes For example January 1982 had an average of 4.5C in Kilkenny station, around normal. But that stat hid a bigger picture.

I know, January 1982 is interesting. Overall, it was a close to average month in terms of temperatures but the milder periods overshadowed the extreme cold just as much as the severe frosts overshadowing the mildness of the day in December 2001 up until the 14th.

How rare is a period like the first half of December 2001 though, just as much as the period in early to mid January 1982?

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

I know, January 1982 is interesting. Overall, it was a close to average month in terms of temperatures but the milder periods overshadowed the extreme cold just as much as the severe frosts overshadowing the mildness of the day in December 2001 up until the 14th.

How rare is a period like the first half of December 2001 though, just as much as the period in early to mid January 1982?

Early December 2001 was very rare. But the frosts didn't over shadow the daytime for me and i'd say a lot of us. They weren't severe frosts. More like what you'd get in October during an Indian summer. There was so much sunshine for the time of year. More than months like June 2012 i'd imagine. The run up to Christmas didn't feel like Christmas at all. It wasn't like days of 6 or 7C max, you were at 12/13C mostly. It was like nice sunny weather in late March and early April. In the shade it felt warm. Most peculiar as you usually expect those temps at this time with cloud/rain.

sryanbruen

nagdefy wrote: »

Early 2001 was very rare. But the frosts didn't over shadow the daytime for me and i'd say a lot of us. They weren't severe frosts. More like what you'd get in October during an Indian summer. There was so much sunshine for the time of year. More than months like June 2012 i'd imagine. The run up to Christmas didn't feel like Christmas at all. It wasn't like days of 6 or 7C max, you were at 12/13C mostly. It was like nice sunny weather in late March and early April. In the shade it felt warm. Most peculiar as you usually expect those temps at this time with cloud/rain.

"Severe" is a subjective term for things like this. I consider the frosts December 2001 had to be severe due to the fact that they made it a colder than average month for Ireland despite the mild days in the first half. You also hear weather services a lot of the time saying -3 or -4c is a severe frost, even sometimes -2c. There was a total of 10-16 air frosts around the country during this month which is much more so than the average for December. If you live in the west or just near the coast, obviously it was a completely different story. Even Met Éireann's December 2001 monthly weather bulletin states in its headline: "Sunniest December on record; Dry with severe frost at times".

Christmas 2001 was a strange White Christmas for some with the kind of temperatures the country received - maximums of 6 to 10c.

When I said overshadow, I mean in terms of statistics, not memories :P.

And correct, stations in Co. Cork had more sunshine in December 2001 than June 2012.

nagdefy

sryanbruen wrote: »

"Severe" is a subjective term for things like this. I consider the frosts December 2001 had to be severe due to the fact that they made it a colder than average month for Ireland despite the mild days in the first half. You also hear weather services a lot of the time saying -3 or -4c is a severe frost, even sometimes -2c. There was a total of 10-16 air frosts around the country during this month which is much more so than the average for December. If you live in the west or just near the coast, obviously it was a completely different story. Even Met Éireann's December 2001 monthly weather bulletin states in its headline: "Sunniest December on record; Dry with severe frost at times".

Christmas 2001 was a strange White Christmas for some with the kind of temperatures the country received - maximums of 6 to 10c.

When I said overshadow, I mean in terms of statistics, not memories :P.

And correct, stations in Co. Cork had more sunshine in December 2001 than June 2012.

It never got below -1C until 15th December, anywhere in Ireland. That's not severe frost, even in April and May. That first half of Dec 2001 was both remarkable statistically and in memory. Statistically especially as regards sunshine hours and daytime highs recorded without cloud/rain southerly and south westerly winds.

I have to stick my neck out on this one Sryan it was very memorable Danno has the same memories. Looking at the Met stats up to 15th Dec confirms this.

nagdefy

One other thing which emphasised the mild weather up to mid December 2001 for me was the length cattle stayed out.

Our land is wet and usually animals come in to the sheds in late October. With dry frosty weather they get to mid November. The grass would be burned off with frost.

The cattle stayed out until 20th December 2001. The ground was reasonably dry and the grass was still growing. The only year that came close to this was 2007 when our last grazing cattle were brought in on 30th November. Now December and January 2015/2016 had growing grass but naturally with our heavy soil everywhere was water logged.

Danno

First time to breach 10c in two weeks... currently 11.7c - but does not feel like it owing to the wind.

Back to Dec '01: What was more exceptional was when the high pulled to the west a little, we got calm nights with a hard frost and fog. The fog, most days lifted by around noon and temperatures shot up from around 0c at 11am to around 10c very quickly by lunchtime. The overnight frosts became more severe after that with -5c and -6c recorded. Gmins were -10c. For December these were notable diurnal ranges.

sryanbruen

[LEVEL 1 Weather Alert - Be Aware] Snow and Ice Warning for all of Ireland

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057815705&page=23

Calibos

Just received incontrovertible proof in the post that Oct/Nov were exceptionally mild months here in Bray.

....Our Oct/Nov gas bill just arrived and was the same as our Summer Bills (Meter Read)

nagdefy

Calibos wrote: »

Just received incontrovertible proof in the post that Oct/Nov were exceptionally mild months here in Bray.

....Our Oct/Nov gas bill just arrived and was the same as our Summer Bills (Meter Read)

Ha ha! It's a great measurement. Takes local conditions into account.

Though one can be a hot or cold person. Suppose if you compared bills for the same period over a number of years.

One thing though when we're younger we don't feel the cold as much. so 16 years ago.. Though maybe you're still young

sryanbruen

GFS hinting at something big developing in the stratosphere, could develop by January:

hatrickpatrick

sryanbruen wrote: »

GFS hinting at something big developing in the stratosphere, could develop by January

Do the usual FI caveats apply to the strat as they do to 500hpa and below, IE that it's entirely up in the air until a closer range time frame?