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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Winter 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,171 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    .... and it goes on and on and on and on ......
    Are we ever going to see a pattern change? Quite incredible!
    Here are some staggering climate stats that I just cannot get my head around.
    We all agree that the Azores high is a permanent fixture every winter and remains in situ for weeks/months on end, so here are the average rainfall amounts for Dublin and the Azores for the winter months, Dec-Feb.
    Dublin: 178mm or 7.12 ins.
    Azores: 328mm or 13 ins.
    How the hell can it rain twice as much there as it does where I am?

    ECM1-216.GIF?17-12

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azores#Climate

    I saw this mornings models and thought of you!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    The trend from all models at the moment is for the Azores to relocate to Europe. I'm seeing (not predicting!) an unusually mild February ahead similar to 1998.

    UW144-21.GIF?17-17
    daffodil-flower-400x265.jpg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,434 ✭✭✭✭mahoney_j


    The trend from all models at the moment is for the Azores to relocate to Europe. I'm seeing (not predicting!) an unusually mild February ahead similar to 1998.

    UW144-21.GIF?17-17
    daffodil-flower-400x265.jpg

    I’ll gladly take mild but would prefer dry !!!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    The trend from all models at the moment is for the Azores to relocate to Europe. I'm seeing (not predicting!) an unusually mild February ahead similar to 1998.

    Mild dry Februaries like 1998 bring payback when you least want it. Remember the frost and snow in April during the Good Friday talks signing? And that summer was wet and cool. I rather see rain in the winter. Take winter 2013-2014, wet and windy. Followed by a good dry summer, warm until August. Winter 1994-1995 was wet, followed by the summer of 1995..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Hold on, hold on, hold on.

    I just want to explain myself here with the FI charts given what I've said in the Winter discussion thread which may have caused some confusion. Over my years of model watching since I began in 2014, usually once we get to the milder spell, the models start trying to find the next change in the pattern again. Therefore, I don't think this incoming mild spell is going to last as long as they're letting on. Also, it only takes a wave of amplification in the Atlantic or the Siberian High to show their hand more then the prospects from the models look completely different again.

    We've gone past what is the windiest spell of the entire Winter season on average, late December and early January. This means the Atlantic should be running out of steam into February, and especially given how the zonal winds are expected to take a plunge along with the Polar Vortex being dramatically disturbed.

    It all looks messy but we'll wait and see what Mother Nature has up her sleeve waiting for us in the foreseeable future and the rest of the Winter 2017/18 season into early Spring.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    sryanbruen wrote: »
    Hold on, hold on, hold on.

    I just want to explain myself here with the FI charts given what I've said in the Winter discussion thread which may have caused some confusion. Over my years of model watching since I began in 2014, usually once we get to the milder spell, the models start trying to find the next change in the pattern again. Therefore, I don't think this incoming mild spell is going to last as long as they're letting on. Also, it only takes a wave of amplification in the Atlantic or the Siberian High to show their hand more then the prospects from the models look completely different again.

    We've gone past what is the windiest spell of the entire Winter season on average, late December and early January. This means the Atlantic should be running out of steam into February, and especially given how the zonal winds are expected to take a plunge along with the Polar Vortex being dramatically disturbed.

    It all looks messy but we'll wait and see what Mother Nature has up her sleeve waiting for us in the foreseeable future and the rest of the Winter 2017/18 season into early Spring.

    Did M.T Craniums winter forecast call for a mild Februrary? In a la nina winter it may well be we end up with a quite cold March.
    With your post in mind, if we think back to three days before the start of the epic Winter of 1947, who would have said, based on that chart, we would get a winter of the century?
    So it just shows we never know. If the monster Russian high were to link up with the arctic high we could be laughing and the pv would start to cry.
    Obviously it's very unlikely to happen, though- but obviously in those rare winters everything goes just right from the perspective of a snow enthusiast.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    And the GFS is at it again in deep fi(teasing a easterly)- carlsberg must have taken over the model for this run:)
    It will be back to more sobering ouput in its next run, no doubt.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    We are really overdue a February easterly. They were almost nailed on in the 1980s.

    I remember so many Februaries around Valentine's Day with either snow or icicles hanging from the windows and slates of out houses on the farm.

    2010 was really a North Easterly and it was December. Really 2009 was the last easterly we had and it was short lived. The Scandi high seems to be nearly a thing of the past. I wonder why.. If we could get a big 1055mb in place... February was always the time..and bingo!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    This kind of muck is looking very likely now unfortunately.
    Maybe get a few weeks of this horror show and as Nadgefy says we might get lucky in February.
    I had a look at Netweather this morning to see what the "big shots" have to say for themselves but they are nowhere to be seen, the MOD thread has been on the same page for NINE hours now! Fancy that on the 18th of January!

    UW144-21.GIF?18-06

    ECM1-216.GIF?18-12


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    Scandinavia highs are more common in March or April now ie a nuisance

    Aidan mcGivern on his UKMO Facebook video last night suggested that the new mild pattern might only last for about 10 days according to signals
    He gave no more detail
    Obviously given what we know about FI
    Large mug of salt with that!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Looking at the charts this evening and it's one of those ocassions where it's best take a 5 day break and have a look then :)

    Only we never follow through on those intentions!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    nagdefy wrote: »
    Looking at the charts this evening and it's one of those ocassions where it's best take a 5 day break and have a look then :)

    Only we never follow through on those intentions!

    What are they showing


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    What are they showing

    A lot of Atlantic dominated weather, no real cold and no snow :) But they can flip in a few days. Hard to see anything but mild weather for the next week though. I sometimes take a break and after 4 or 5 days there might be something to look at.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,786 ✭✭✭giveitholly


    nagdefy wrote: »
    A lot of Atlantic dominated weather, no real cold and no snow :) But they can flip in a few days. Hard to see anything but mild weather for the next week though. I sometimes take a break and after 4 or 5 days there might be something to look at.

    Thanks,are they showing a lot of rain


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    Thanks,are they showing a lot of rain

    No problem. The Jet would be over us a fair bit of the time so it would be above average rain. On a quick glance it doesn't show anything really severe stormwise.

    Again things can change but it looks like a week of this sort of weather. As Sryan points out different atmospheric changes can disrupt an Atlantic pattern reasonably quickly. The SSW or Sudden Stratospheric Warming is one of them but can take a few weeks to filter down to the lower levels of the atmosphere.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,520 ✭✭✭nagdefy


    What are they showing

    The forecasters to look out for are MT Cranium on the boards website, link below. Daily forecasts and updates during weather events. Voluntary forecasts.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=315

    Met Eireann's own website. On here my favourite posters who have a lot of info are: Sryan, Oneric, Gaoth Laidir (who is very realistic in snowfall predictions and often doesn't get the credit he deserves!!), Nacho Libre, Kermit, January Snowstor, JXC from Clare, Meteorite 58, Gonzo and Clonmel (who call things as they see it!), George Sunsnow, Donegal Storm, MJohnston and Oscar Bravo, Rebel Browser and Munster Legend. I'm sure i'm forgetting a few but you'll learn a lot from those posters. As i've learnt a lot from them.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 865 ✭✭✭Maidhci


    Watching the Met Eireann weather forecast at 21.30 with Joanna Donnelly, it appears that Wednesday next is going to be very stormy? The average wind speed shown on the weekly chart for Wednesday was 55km, which is unusual this far ahead. After all, this week they were showing averages of 35km and 40km, one day ahead of the forecast storm(s). Am I reading this correctly - sincerely hope so?


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Watching the Met Eireann weather forecast at 21.30 with Joanna Donnelly, it appears that Wednesday next is going to be very stormy? The average wind speed shown on the weekly chart for Wednesday was 55km, which is unusual this far ahead. After all, this week they were showing averages of 35km and 40km, one day ahead of the forecast storm(s). Am I reading this correctly - sincerely hope so?


    I think the ECM at this stage is showing a blustery Tues and quite windy on Weds in the early hours followed by a breezy day and staying quite windy probably on the coasts ( more so the Atlantic side ). This is just into FI, in that 13.00 weds on the ECM is +120 hrs and is a bit far out to be anyway for sure so this could change in timing and intensity one way or the other.

    The GFS is showing a possible cold sourced area of Lp on Thurs close to us .

    Looking very mild on Tues and turning colder on Weds.

    Looking quite wet during Weds and Thurs possibly.

    Showing a lively jet over us for a couple of days around Tues - Weds.

    The week after showing Hp over or near us for some days.



    KRxUPrV.gif?1

    850hPa winds

    yAPNxEE.gif?1

    s6goLWT.gif

    Well into FI, we will see.

    7UEk7TN.gif?1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,188 ✭✭✭Elmer Blooker


    The differences at Day 10 are a joke! The ECM shows the usual mobile westerly in the North Atlantic and the GFS shows a gigantic mid latitude block. :confused:
    It will interesting to see what the Jan 30th charts actually look like.

    gfs-0-240.png?6

    ECM1-240.GIF?20-12


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM having none of this Hp business !

    WqDe2id.png?1

    5Xp10OR.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭esposito


    Ecmwf 12z looks interesting for coldies from 192 onwards. Pattern change? Far out in FI I know but encouraging anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Captain Snow


    Very Nice . Cold into Europe.

    i58x7b.png


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭typhoony


    GFS certainly keen on the idea of the Atlantic train slowing down, charts at +180 show a high sending a tongue out to Scandinavia, ripe for an early Feb easterly,very likely scenario with low developing over southern Europe


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    I'll just leave this here from the GFS 12z for early February :).

    ksk1gRU.png

    4WSLTv2.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Plenty of cold model runs to look at for early February, see the latest ones below for example.

    yyr2MU2.png

    5DIw7Fz.png

    S3NoHtL.gif

    Even the GEM (which was in its own world yesterday with what it was showing) is showing the prospects of cold tonight.

    BCZZF2L.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,405 ✭✭✭esposito


    Looks interesting with the cross model agreement. Let’s hope the ECM and UKMO come on board for a more sustained cold outbreak. Getting tired of these 1 to 2 day a cold weather “events”.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Ireland is just abouts on the knife edge of a beasterly on the ECM 12z:

    Cva87tL.gif

    ZKZQ1A3.gif

    However, then cold air starts to try and flood in from the west:

    nAouJhO.gif

    nCxlGFi.gif

    The GFS OP has backtracked today with milder solutions for early February but there is a lot of scatter in its ensembles and I mean A LOT of scatter, take Dublin's GEFS 12z for example:

    aN8UpXd.png

    There are some quite cold ensembles mixed in there!

    I'd like to post this brilliant comment regarding model runs by my friend James over at GWV:
    I seem to think the only certainty we have at present is that the models, have really been struggling since the start of winter, possibly before, with Fantasy Island being closer than you think normally. Just because a model or models show a solution in one run or multiple runs doesn't necessarily ,"Make it so," to quote Captain Picard unfortunately. Hence what the models giveth the models can take away, given that the further predicted events are from the initial conditions the greater the error will possibly be. Try not to get too excited or upset about what you see.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 12,208 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The models , for the moment anyway, trending towards Hp the week after next. The Jet forecast to take a Northerly route.

    ECM1-240_rgp3.GIF

    gfs-0-216_lai8.png

    tempresult_ulg8.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,679 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Every op run on every model today has handled the low in question this weekend differently by quite a substantial margin. The changes between each GFS run today have been evident; but the difference between the UKMO and the GFS 12z runs at +144 is stark. Therefore, to rule anything in or out at this stage is still a pretty risky move in all honesty and I wouldn’t personally be ruling out another significant change between now and next week. The JMA is still going for a bit of an easterly early next week for what it's worth - the UKMO is in agreement.

    It's all a very messy picture! Ah god, the headaches from this.

    0lrkXVu.png

    NXmkjI8.png

    X466N6A.gif

    XDhYPst.gif

    Vxlg1xT.gif

    vXwHlQ0.gif

    1LHwmZ8.png

    fMiWF5e.png

    GJuEIUJ.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    I wouldn’t rule anything out but still side with our climactic norm
    Before modeling or in the era of basic modeling forecasters didn’t have the ‘luxury’ of computers going off on one to this extreme or that
    Outcomes were simply unknown 8 days ahead and to be honest we’re seeing evidence on this thread time and time again that we’re no better off today
    I’m siding again with Joanna Donnelly who tweeted recently that 240 charts are about as useful as kindergarten crayon classes


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,230 ✭✭✭pad199207


    I’ve only stayed in the +96hrs club since middle of December and believe me it is a much happier life. I wouldn’t look back to those days of getting excited beyond that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,023 ✭✭✭Donegal Storm


    There's been little to get excited about even if you were looking to the far reaches, the past few weeks runs have been about as bland and uninspiring as you could ever hope for at this time of year. The lack of posts recently speak volumes and it doesn't look like changing any time soon


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    UKMO has the beginnings of an easterly at 120

    GFS disagrees, but is moving towards it


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I’m siding again with Joanna Donnelly who tweeted recently that 240 charts are about as useful as kindergarten crayon classes

    They are useful if they are showing our default pattern. In other words if a 240 hour chart from the ECM is showing mild southwesterlies it is more than likely correct. What she should have said is a 240 hour charts depicting easterlies for Ireland, or anything against the climactic norm, is about as useful as kindergarden crayon classes.
    Anyway, I think we may well have a cold start to March based on what is happening in the stratosphere.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    gabeeg wrote: »
    UKMO has the beginnings of an easterly at 120

    GFS disagrees, but is moving towards it

    UW144-7.gif.835d761406dccfe25c610d9a1583dc04.gif

    An unusual enough chart that, squeezed from both directions! You know the north westerly airflow will win out, at least over Ireland.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    UW144-7.gif.835d761406dccfe25c610d9a1583dc04.gif

    An unusual enough chart that, squeezed from both directions! You know the north westerly airflow will win out, at least over Ireland.


    Indeed the outlook on all the main models is a bit unusual looking, not sure it will translate into unusual weather for us but we definitely aren't looking at the usual stuck in a rut atlantic charts (albeit the bitter Canadian air flowing into the atlantic may have something to say about that). Given the depth of cold to our northwest and building cold to our east/North east, it wouldn't take a huge amount of luck to see a colder version of the early December snowfall in the coming weeks.

    MJO now almost certain to move into high amplitude phase 7, we could see some very nice charts soon if the models see a continuing progression into phase 8.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    [QUOTE=BLIZZARD7;106000413

    MJO now almost certain to move into high amplitude phase 7, we could see some very nice charts soon if the models see a continuing progression into phase 8.[/QUOTE]

    Yeah i think this attempt will fail because of the cold Canadian air( if it were to plunge down into the sea off Portugal, we would be laughing), but a bit later on in February things will hopefully fall into place with the effects of the mjo starting to show on the models. Another good indicator is if Kermit the frog and Gaoth Laidir agree that the parameters are perfect for snow! Then we will really be in business.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    Yeah i think this attempt will fail because of the cold Canadian air( if it were to plunge down into the sea off Portugal, we would be laughing), but a bit later on in February things will hopefully fall into place with the effects of the mjo starting to show on the models. Another good indicator is if Kermit the frog and Gaoth Laidir agree that the parameters are perfect for snow! Then we will really be in business.

    Aha one can dream ;)

    Later into Feb we have potential strat effects coming into play too, Mean zonal winds expected to see a big drop/potential reversal-

    u_65N_10hpa.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3


    UW144-7.gif.835d761406dccfe25c610d9a1583dc04.gif

    An unusual enough chart that, squeezed from both directions! You know the north westerly airflow will win out, at least over Ireland.

    We really are the piglet in the middle, aren't we?

    -8 to the left of me, -10 to the right,

    Here we are stuck in the middle of you.

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,199 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    IMG_20180130_183655.png.b94d733c84cd6c846aa316e1f9c2390b.png

    Impressive cold air well into the Atlantic from a northwesterly!
    It would be quite something if that -12 air made it all the way here from a north westerly. Has it ever happened before? I know in 2010 we had but that was from a proper northerly feed with less modification en route to contend with.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,591 ✭✭✭gabeeg


    The 18z is looking very interesting. East and West colliding in a new Cold War.

    Anyone remember similar happening before?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,043 ✭✭✭George Sunsnow


    That pretend feed in the gfs is actually contending with a lot more modification than the northerly in 2010 as it’s crossing a lot closer to more NAD exposed Ocean
    It certainly has made land fall in Ireland before
    Don’t ask me when ,( I remember things but not specifics,it’s age :O )but it has made it
    -10 or -11 850’s from that direction if the pretend feed ever became a reality would really plaster Ulster,Connaught and north Leinster with snow showers and thunder!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    A little more amplification of the jet stream and there could be a surprise from the east in the next day or two showing up on the models heading in to the second week of February...?

    gfsnh-5-120.png?18

    UN144-21.GIF?30-18


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,985 ✭✭✭BLIZZARD7


    A little more amplification of the jet stream and there could be a surprise from the east in the next day or two showing up on the models heading in to the second week of February...?

    gfsnh-5-120.png?18

    UN144-21.GIF?30-18

    Absolutely, and with that this mornings runs trending colder again in the mid-term, the ECM has cold uppers over Ireland or very close to over us for most of the run. An easterly may be on the cards sooner than looked possible just a day or two ago.

    Il he watching the 120-168hr timeframe closely for improvements on the next few runs, UKMO the best performer at +120/+144 for the past few runs.

    +144hrs ECM- Given movements so far the -8c or lower uppers over the UK may just make it to us by the time this is at +96 to +120hrs-

    ECM0-144.GIF?31-12

    +168hrs - Cold air entrenched, this is very close to a snowy picture given a touch more amplification.

    ECM0-168.GIF?31-12

    Ninja snow events in this timeframe may just appear for us.

    Gefs also showing growing interest in the outer reaches as the big strat warming moves closer in time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,238 ✭✭✭Oneiric 3



    Impressive cold air well into the Atlantic from a northwesterly!
    It would be quite something if that -12 air made it all the way here from a north westerly. Has it ever happened before?

    As Syran mentions, Jan 1984 seems to have set a precedent:
    era-i_msl_t850_tp_1984011400_12.png

    New Moon



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,051 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    It might be worth reminding ourselves that the temperatures shown on these charts are not ground level temperatures, but temperatures at certain pressure heights. 850 HPa corresponds to ≈ 5,000 ft (1500m) ASL, 500 HPa to ≈ 18,000 ft (5000m), and 250 HPa to ≈ 34,000 ft (11000m). The last-mentioned is doubly interesting because that's where airliners fly and the jet streams roam. (Apologies to the folks who know all this already.)

    Ye Hypocrites, are these your pranks
    To murder men and gie God thanks?
    Desist for shame, proceed no further
    God won't accept your thanks for murder.

    ―Robert Burns



  • Registered Users Posts: 10,673 ✭✭✭✭MJohnston


    bnt wrote: »
    It might be worth reminding ourselves that the temperatures shown on these charts are not ground level temperatures, but temperatures at certain pressure heights. 850 HPa corresponds to ≈ 5,000 ft (1500m) ASL, 500 HPa to ≈ 18,000 ft (5000m), and 250 HPa to ≈ 34,000 ft (11000m). The last-mentioned is doubly interesting because that's where airliners fly and the jet streams roam. (Apologies to the folks who know all this already.)

    That's what the references to "uppers" are about in people's posts


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,132 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    To back up what Blizzard is saying (assuming we don't get the full brunt of an easterly incursion) - we need to watch the front attempt to make inroads from the Atlantic at the start of next week - coming up against very cold eastern airmass and followed by a very cold north Atlantic airmass some time on Monday.

    The two could meet over Ireland. This will weaken and stall the front but not before a potential dumping of snow.

    gens-3-2-138.png

    gens-3-0-138.png

    Still that's 120+ hrs out yet. If it gets within 96 potentially exciting for those who have not seen an actual frontal snow event in many years. Quite a bit of cross model support has to be said.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,558 ✭✭✭typhoony


    doubt there will be a battleground, more like a dying front with snizzle. at least the easterly is there on most of the models but it looks a weak affair maybe the east seeing some light snow at times, it will depend on uppers and dew points


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,051 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    MJohnston wrote: »
    That's what the references to "uppers" are about in people's posts
    I know, and you know, but I'm thinking of casual visitors who might not be familiar with such specific jargon.

    Ye Hypocrites, are these your pranks
    To murder men and gie God thanks?
    Desist for shame, proceed no further
    God won't accept your thanks for murder.

    ―Robert Burns



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