Winter 2017-18: Discussion

Cantona's Collars

Farmers representative on the 1 o clock news asking for vouchers to get discount feed for animals. It's as if they don't know Winter rolls around every year. A couple of cold days and it's panic stations. We get away light compared to other countries,just look at Europe today,parts buried by heavy snow and other areas flooded.

cherryghost

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Met Eireann has quite a wide variety on offer for Dublin/Leinster tomorrow (sure, cover all bases)

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/regional.asp?Prov=Dublin


Tomorrow, will be a cold, blustery, showery day, with occasional bright spells. Showers will be fairly widespread, some possibly heavy and prolonged, with hail or sleet...



...or possibly snow and thunderstorms

Temps seem too high for anything more than sleet... but I've seen stranger things. It's a great show.

Kermit.de.frog

cherryghost wrote: »

Temps seem too high for anything more than sleet... but I've seen stranger things. It's a great show.

Just about right side of marginal for now...it's the late afternoon/evening we need to focus on. There is a pool of colder air coming through at that point, and DAM thicknesses look good, which may be enough to transition the precipitation to snow to low levels. Depends on so many other variables too, shot in the dark.

MJohnston

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

One word for it today rotten. How some people think this is better than benign dry weather I’ll never know. It’s cold dark wet and miserable.

Who thinks this is better? You're arguing with no-one!

km79

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

One word for it today rotten. How some people think this is better than benign dry weather I’ll never know. It’s cold dark wet and miserable.

Very difficult to get from A to B
Yeah the snow was fun. For an hour . It's just annoying now

server down

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

One word for it today rotten. How some people think this is better than benign dry weather I’ll never know. It’s cold dark wet and miserable.

People like cold bright days (my preference) snd many like snow. Nobody likes rain, cold or otherwise. The problem with Ireland is that mild winters are invariably wet. See 2015.

Cantona's Collars

Met Eireann giving temps of between 7-9c in the south. A couple of degrees cooler in the Midlands and North. Rain and hail forecast with a bright dry day by Friday.
I hate days like today,grey,damp and miserable.

Gonzo

This week is possibly a transition phase back to mild, next week the Atlantic should be back in full charge and possibly some very unsettled conditions as well as mild temperatures.

The past two to three weeks was interesting and certainly more seasonal for the majority of the country, however many of us across the greater Dublin region and other parts of Leinster are still left waiting to see a half decent fall of snow - and this is very unlikely to happen between now and Christmas.

pistolpetes11

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

One word for it today rotten. How some people think this is better than benign dry weather I’ll never know. It’s cold dark wet and miserable.

Problem in Ireland is , We very rarely get benign dry weather ,

If its not cold and frosty , its mild and rainy like today in the winter anyway

kod87

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

One word for it today rotten. How some people think this is better than benign dry weather I’ll never know. It’s cold dark wet and miserable.

Literally don't recall a single person in the history of humanity who likes this weather. Dark, wet, soulless drizzle and not particularly cold either.

Unfortunately though, this is a typical irish winters day

Gaoth Laidir

Can't see any signal for snow tomorrow night away from high ground.

Kermit.de.frog

12pm GFS a little more bullish for tomorrow afternoon/evening than earlier







6z Euro4 also implies minimum criteria met for snowfall particularly in prolonged showers with any sort of intensity.

Interesting to see 12z Euro4 and Hirlam this evening.

nacho libre

John Hammond's blog
https://weathertrending.com/2017/12/08/on-the-horizon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

nacho libre

km79 wrote: »

Very difficult to get from A to B
Yeah the snow was fun. For an hour . It's just annoying now

Annoying for you and others maybe. I actually enjoy driving in this weather. I will be sad when the snow is gone. With that in mind thank you snow for your visit. I hope to see you again next year when you come from the east:D

JCX BXC

STATUS YELLOW

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork, Kerry and Limerick
WIND WARNING: West to southwest winds veering west to northwest with mean speeds of 45 to 65km/h will gust up to 85km/h. Winds will be strongest for western areas.

Issued:Tuesday 12 December 2017 15:00
Valid:Wednesday 13 December 2017 12:00 to Thursday 14 December 2017 22:00

highdef

nagdefy wrote: »

Just left Portlaoise to drive home. Roads fine there but still very tricky at home at 3pm.

Especially if you meet someone and are forced off the snow worn track. A car that's not a 4 wheel drive.

https://www.facebook.com/walter.lawler.7/videos/10155978724260908/

https://www.facebook.com/walter.lawler.7/videos/10155978751870908/

I think you might need to be a friend of Walter to view those FB links. I can't access the videos.

nagdefy

Just left Portlaoise to drive home. Roads fine there but still very tricky at home at 3pm.

Especially if you meet someone and are forced off the snow worn track. A car that's not a 4 wheel drive.

sryanbruen

To give my opinion on the situation of the latter part of December, I think the models are going over the top at the moment with a zonal regime. Zonal winds are far too weak for a prolonged period of our usual Atlantic depressions and mild temperatures. They're being their usual selves wanting to get us out of a blocked and cold situation as quick as possible. As you saw from my forecast, I think that we have a VERY long Winter ahead of us.

The AO, after being very positive for a few days (which I think is what the models are corresponding to), is looking to go back into negative territory during the latter half of December on today's GEFS. It's nice to see this change in the ensembles today as the GEFS recently have just been showing the AO dropping to rather positive or neutral towards the end of the year.

There has been several signs of a SSW or some sort of SW going to take place at the end of December from the GFS over the past week. The model is still going for it and is in fact, upgrading it each day with the red colours now starting to appear on the charts. I've posted already what a SSW could mean for our weather if we do get one. If you've not seen it, here's the link to it: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=105483509&postcount=844

Not to mention, I said in my Winter forecast that we could be seeing a SSW around January which would have a huge impact on February and early Spring perhaps, or even January in some cases. As we are heading into a somewhat milder phase and the potential for a mild interlude next week, I think that a SSW will do wonders for us, that is if you like cold.

I again know little to nothing about the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) but experts continue to say that it's very similar to 2010.

ENSO is still going for a Weak La Nina event which is very favourable for cold at this point of time.

The basic summary is that I'm expecting another blast of cold towards the end of December or January if these signs continue to be a thing and that next week's mild interlude is just moderation like we've received a lot of the time since November, such as early December's mild interlude before last Thursday came.

BLIZZARD7

sryanbruen wrote: »

The basic summary is that I'm expecting another blast of cold towards the end of December or January if these signs continue to be a thing and that next week's mild interlude is just moderation like we've received a lot of the time since November, such as early December's mild interlude before last Thursday came.

I agree very much with what you're saying and it ties in with exactly what I see developing - whilst nowhere near certain I do think we have a very good window opening between about Christmas and the 10th of January for a cold spell to develop - Im thinking between Christmas and New year will be the initiation point which as it happens is my preferred time in winter for a decent cold shot.

There are all sorts of teleconnections and developments in the strat (that you have detailed so won't repeat) a very quiet sun etc at present that are in our favour right now, on top of the fact we aren't facing an up hill battle as we usually are with a raging PV embedded for weeks.

So after a milder interlude or a cold high over the country I'm looking for an Alaskan ridge to develop and push in over the pole before linking with heights rising over Ireland/UK, settling over greenland and Heights dropping to our north east,

Or

Heights building over Scandi, possibly coming up via Ireland on the way but more likely from the Siberian high growing in presence (potentially both playing a part) even with this option I see an Alaskan ridge pushing towards the pole and beyond as being the catalyst for the final step I.e a cold shot heading in our direction from the East/North East and a strong block in situ.

These are just my preliminary thoughts for where we might be heading in 10-20 days time but I will be keeping a close eye on any major movements from the models away from the zonal outlook they generally like to show in FI.

munsterlegend

I see where Met Eireann now have a snow-ice yellow warning for tomorrow night. The northwest most at risk for any snowfall.

http://m.met.ie/weather-warnings.aspx?t=National

Oscar Bravo

STATUS YELLOW

Snow-ice Warning for Ireland
Scattered heavy thundery showers about Wednesday into Thursday. Rain will occasionally turn to sleet and possibly snow - accumulations of less than 3cm possible. Northwest areas will be most at risk. Slippery roads and paths too due to frost and ice, especially for sheltered spots.

Aldergrove forecasting Snow showers tomorrow afternoon/evening

Ilyushin76

Hoping for clear sky for the geminids:)

Oscar Bravo

Ilyushin76 wrote: »

Hoping for clear sky for the geminids:)

Should be some perfect conditions in between the showers. must keep an eye out to.

patneve2

Tomorrow afternoon/evening looks somewhat interesting: uppers at 850hpa about -5/-6 and at 500hpa around the -34/-35 mark. Decent thicknesses also. Just about right for some snow in the afternoon/evening.

Kermit.de.frog

Tomorrow evening latest

18z GFS



18z Hirlam



(indicative)

nacho libre

The GFS posts Christmas day looks interesting. It's just one run, of course, but it would chime with Hammond's blog and the thoughts of some posters above.

sryanbruen

nacho libre wrote: »

The GFS posts Christmas day looks interesting. It's just one run, of course, but it would chime with Hammond's blog and the thoughts of some posters above.

Yep, looks like a backtrack from the GFS today, just like I expected.

Clonmel1000

Horrendous day today. Weather really sucks at the moment it seems to be permanently dark.

mickmackey1

Clonmel1000 wrote: »

it seems to be permanently dark.

Earliest sunset is today at 4.19 so not long now till a stretch in the evenings

nacho libre

UK Outlook for Friday 29 Dec 2017 to Friday 12 Jan 2018:

Through the last days of December it is likely to be unsettled and often windy across much of the UK. Temperatures will be near to or below average and snow is likely, at times, especially across northern parts of the country. Through the first half of January a gradual reduction in the frequency of Atlantic westerlies seems most likely, this will be coupled with an increase in the frequency of colder and drier periods, although confidence is low at this stage. Milder, wetter, and windier spells should become more short-lived during this period with the colder and drier spells of weather bringing an increased likelihood of overnight frost and fog, as well as some snow, wintry showers, and below-average temperatures.

Sounds like they are expecting an easterly or north easterly airflow to develop in the new year - of course it could be we stay on the mild side and have to look on in envy as the UK gets snow. Then again it could easily end up as a slack easterly for all.