14 team Pro 12 from 2017/2018??

thomond2006 · 03-07-2017 11:51am

awec wrote: »

Whatever the system the Irish teams have to play each other home and away every single season.

I am really not sold on this conference nonsense.

Why? The interpros in the New Year are made redundant by the away team sending shadow squads.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 11:52am

Somewhere they will need to decide what's more important, a level playing field for all teams, or generating revenue from local derbies. Because as it stands, these two factors conflict with each other.

connemara man · 03-07-2017 11:52am

thomond2006 wrote: »

Why? The interpros in the New Year are made redundant by the away team sending shadow squads.

Because they are the only sell outs for the Irish provinces outside Europe, so if this needs to increase money they can't be stopped

thomond2006 · 03-07-2017 11:53am

connemara man wrote: »

Because they are the only sell outs for the Irish provinces outside Europe, so if this needs to increase money they can't be stopped

True. From a pure rugby POV I have no problem cutting the interpros from 12 to 6 per season.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 12:03pm

More I think about it, the more I'd prefer:

2 conferences of 7, each containing:
2 Irish
2 Welsh
1 Scot
1 Italian
1 SA

Conferences are drawn up via a draw at the beginning of each season, with Irish and Welsh teams seeded based on their final standing the previous season.

So for e.g., based on last year's final standings, Munster and Leinster couldn't be in the same conference. Nor could Scarlets and Ospreys.

Then we do H + A with each team in your conference, plus either H or A with the teams in the other, decided randomly.

19 game regular season, with an extended playoff system: top 3 teams contesting in the championship playoffs, and 4th and 5th contesting in playoffs for the 7th RCC spot.

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 12:05pm

Again, absolutely no way the IRFU will even consider splitting up the Irish teams.

I will eat 4 million Munster scarves if there is anything like

awec · 03-07-2017 12:05pm

thomond2006 wrote: »

Why? The interpros in the New Year are made redundant by the away team sending shadow squads.

Because it's hardly fair to have it any other way from a financial point of view.

Especially when you consider Munster and Leinster will be kept together to ensure both teams get their biannual big paydays.

awec · 03-07-2017 12:07pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

More I think about it, the more I'd prefer:

2 conferences of 7, each containing:
2 Irish
2 Welsh
1 Scot
1 Italian
1 SA

Conferences are drawn up via a draw at the beginning of each season, with Irish and Welsh teams seeded based on their final standing the previous season.

So for e.g., based on last year's final standings, Munster and Leinster couldn't be in the same conference. Nor could Scarlets and Ospreys.

Then we do H + A with each team in your conference, plus either H or A with the teams in the other, decided randomly.

19 game regular season, with an extended playoff system: top 3 teams contesting in the championship playoffs, and 4th and 5th contesting in playoffs for the 7th RCC spot.

How can you do random home / away?

Surely there has to be some rules around teams not being screwed out of home games? It's hardly fair if Ulster play 4 extra home games a season than Leinster for example.

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 12:09pm

awec wrote: »

How can you do random home / away?

Surely there has to be some rules around teams not being screwed out of home games? It's hardly fair if Ulster play 4 extra home games a season than Leinster for example.

If there is an uneven number of teams I assume it'll be 3 home and 4 away rotating annually.

connemara man · 03-07-2017 12:09pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

More I think about it, the more I'd prefer:

2 conferences of 7, each containing:
2 Irish
2 Welsh
1 Scot
1 Italian
1 SA

Conferences are drawn up via a draw at the beginning of each season, with Irish and Welsh teams seeded based on their final standing the previous season.

So for e.g., based on last year's final standings, Munster and Leinster couldn't be in the same conference. Nor could Scarlets and Ospreys.

Then we do H + A with each team in your conference, plus either H or A with the teams in the other, decided randomly.

19 game regular season, with an extended playoff system: top 3 teams contesting in the championship playoffs, and 4th and 5th contesting in playoffs for the 7th RCC spot.

19 games, so every year there will be a free weekend for some teams because of the odd number of matches

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 12:09pm

awec wrote: »

How can you do random home / away?

Surely there has to be some rules around teams not being screwed out of home games? It's hardly fair if Ulster play 4 extra home games a season than Leinster for example.

Pseudo randomisation, where you are guaranteed 3 home games.

dregin · 03-07-2017 12:13pm

Is there something massively wrong with the current league or has someone just decided that there isn't enough money being made?

It really doesn't feel broken to me, so why fix it? I had a good rant at them about German, Georgian or Romanian teams being a better option than SA in last week's survey. This really feels like they're diluting the quality of the league in a vain effort to get more in TV rights. It's a very short-term view that will ultimately fail, where nurturing rugby in countries closer to home would have a far bigger advantage in the long term.

awec · 03-07-2017 12:14pm

We're effectively talking of changing how the entire league works for what is nothing more than an experiment to test the viability of South African teams in our league.

We have no idea if they're going to be any good, but the consensus seems to be that they probably won't be and we're just introducing more cannon fodder into the league.

We have no idea how the travel is going to affect the fixtures.

We've no idea how european qualification is going to work.

All this and it's apparently happening for next season which is due to start next month?

Just seems crazy to me, and I think there's a very high chance this lot won't last for more than a few seasons. It would be good if the pro12 could go a few years without changing something to try and build some consistency. Yes the standard could do with raising a bit but I think we should focus more on getting unions to treat it seriously rather than just taking in more teams.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 12:15pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Again, absolutely no way the IRFU will even consider splitting up the Irish teams.

I will eat 4 million Munster scarves if there is anything like

You are basically trading off 4 interpro games, in exchange for a far greater likelihood that your teams get into Europe. I wonder how that would balance out financially.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 12:18pm

awec wrote: »

We have no idea if they're going to be any good, but the consensus seems to be that they probably won't be and we're just introducing more cannon fodder into the league.

This is not true. If anything the consensus I've observed is that they will be of a decent standard.

awec · 03-07-2017 12:19pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

This is not true. If anything the consensus I've observed is that they will be of a decent standard.

How? They're hopeless in Super Rugby and any of their decent players will be hoovered up by the remaining SR teams.

Who is going to want to play for them?

connemara man · 03-07-2017 12:19pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

You are basically trading off 4 interpro games, in exchange for a far greater likelihood that your teams get into Europe. I wonder how that would balance out financially.

But the Irish provinces not Connacht have no issue getting top 7 in the current format so you are reducing ticket intake for no tangible benefit.

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 12:29pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

You are basically trading off 4 interpro games, in exchange for a far greater likelihood that your teams get into Europe. I wonder how that would balance out financially.

Also trading away the games themselves, and games where the IRFU have control over scheduling and the strength (or lack thereof) of both sides are important to them.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 12:29pm

connemara man wrote: »

But the Irish provinces not Connacht have no issue getting top 7 in the current format so you are reducing ticket intake for no tangible benefit.

Under a system where all 4 provinces are in the same conference, it'll be much harder to get into Europe

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 12:33pm

awec wrote: »

How? They're hopeless in Super Rugby and any of their decent players will be hoovered up by the remaining SR teams.

Who is going to want to play for them?

Do you watch much Super Rugby? These teams can both play. They are playing a higher standard of opposition than in the Pro12 so it's not surprising they don't win many games. There's also talk of SARU committing to keeping Springboks at both teams as part of their deal to enter into the Pro12.

pickarooney · 03-07-2017 12:38pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

I can't see how they wouldn't be eligible to join the RCC if they qualify, tbh. If we have now moved to league rather than union based qualification?

Are they even baptised?

Quin_Dub · 03-07-2017 12:50pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

Do you watch much Super Rugby? These teams can both play. They are playing a higher standard of opposition than in the Pro12 so it's not surprising they don't win many games. There's also talk of SARU committing to keeping Springboks at both teams as part of their deal to enter into the Pro12.

What Springboks?

The Cheetahs have 1 Fringe player - Oupa Mohoje and the media are saying he along with several other of their better players are moving to the Stormers

The Kings have no current Boks , they did have a few added to the extended squad this year , but none are capped..

They will not be competitive, they will be mid-table at absolute best and will add nothing to the tournament from a Rugby point of view.

No Boks or prospective Boks will want to play for them as by not playing against their opponents for squad places they will be at a massive disadvantage for selection..

The only possible longer term upside for Europe here is that in a few years time the rest of the SA Super teams might want to come to Europe and leave Sanzaar to form some kind of European Super league.

But other than a bit of cash , there's nothing in this for the Pro12 in my view.

conf101 · 03-07-2017 12:58pm

I actually like the added excitement and interest that 2 SA teams could - potentially - add to the league. But I hate conference systems. US sports are built on conference systems, they work over there. But over here I think they destroy a league. It's not working well in Super Rugby and I can't see it working for the Pro 12/14

bilston · 03-07-2017 1:03pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Again, absolutely no way the IRFU will even consider splitting up the Irish teams.

I will eat 4 million Munster scarves if there is anything like

Paddy Ashdown once thought like you...

VinLieger · 03-07-2017 1:03pm

Whats going to happen with the hinted at US/Canada expansion if this goes ahead?

Whatever about the problems with having teams on 2 continents, 3 continents is surely just not feasible?

bilston · 03-07-2017 1:04pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

Neil3030 wrote: »

Do you watch much Super Rugby? These teams can both play. They are playing a higher standard of opposition than in the Pro12 so it's not surprising they don't win many games. There's also talk of SARU committing to keeping Springboks at both teams as part of their deal to enter into the Pro12.

What Springboks?

The Cheetahs have 1 Fringe player - Oupa Mohoje and the media are saying he along with several other of their better players are moving to the Stormers

The Kings have no current Boks , they did have a few added to the extended squad this year , but none are capped..

They will not be competitive, they will be mid-table at absolute best and will add nothing to the tournament from a Rugby point of view.

No Boks or prospective Boks will want to play for them as by not playing against their opponents for squad places they will be at a massive disadvantage for selection..

The only possible longer term upside for Europe here is that in a few years time the rest of the SA Super teams might want to come to Europe and leave Sanzaar to form some kind of European Super league.

But other than a bit of cash , there's nothing in this for the Pro12 in my view.

A "bit of cash" is pretty attractive for the Pro 12!

bilston · 03-07-2017 1:05pm

VinLieger wrote: »

Whats going to happen with the hinted at US/Canada expansion if this goes ahead?

Whatever about the problems with having teams on 2 continents, 3 continents is surely just not feasible?

2018/19 for that according to reports.

VinLieger · 03-07-2017 1:14pm

bilston wrote: »

2018/19 for that according to reports.

If it still happens, both of these expansions have kinda been separate rumors at least from what ive seen the last few months.

Is it actually plausible both could happen?

connemara man · 03-07-2017 1:40pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

Under a system where all 4 provinces are in the same conference, it'll be much harder to get into Europe

But even in a split system the gate take will be down on what could be (we don't know how the split will work) a harder way to qualify. Imagine a conference of Leinster, Munster, Glasgow, ospreys, Blues, Cheetahs and Zebre, one bad run could easily see Munster or Leinster drop to 4th and into a playoff

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 1:51pm

connemara man wrote: »

But even in a split system the gate take will be down on what could be (we don't know how the split will work) a harder way to qualify. Imagine a conference of Leinster, Munster, Glasgow, ospreys, Blues, Cheetahs and Zebre, one bad run could easily see Munster or Leinster drop to 4th and into a playoff

I make a specific suggestion on avoiding this very scenario in a previous post. Seed the welsh and irish teams on previous year standings

connemara man · 03-07-2017 1:53pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

I make a specific suggestion on avoiding this very scenario in a previous post. Seed the welsh and irish teams on previous year standings

For every season or just the first?

aloooof · 03-07-2017 2:10pm

As an addendum to this, wasn't there talking that Zebre would be would up / replaced by a team in Rome? I haven't heard any update on this in awhile, a quick google search led me to a Cummiskey article from January - link here.

Which includes the following:

The current Pro12 television deal... ends after the 2017/18 season.

Both Italian sides are bound to the league until 2020, but a break clause exists come 2018, just as the next broadcasting deal begins.

Seems like they're trying to make some changes to the league in advance, with the next TV deal in mind.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 3:40pm

connemara man wrote: »

For every season or just the first?

My preference would be every season, but I'm not sure if I'd be alone on that.

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 3:43pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

My preference would be every season, but I'm not sure if I'd be alone on that.

But if the structure is changing every season how do you fairly split home/away games?

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 3:43pm

Quin_Dub wrote: »

What Springboks?

The Cheetahs have 1 Fringe player - Oupa Mohoje and the media are saying he along with several other of their better players are moving to the Stormers

The Kings have no current Boks , they did have a few added to the extended squad this year , but none are capped..

They will not be competitive, they will be mid-table at absolute best and will add nothing to the tournament from a Rugby point of view.

No Boks or prospective Boks will want to play for them as by not playing against their opponents for squad places they will be at a massive disadvantage for selection..

The only possible longer term upside for Europe here is that in a few years time the rest of the SA Super teams might want to come to Europe and leave Sanzaar to form some kind of European Super league.

But other than a bit of cash , there's nothing in this for the Pro12 in my view.

Well the Pro12 clearly see the need to expand the league, so I'm glad they are least trying something. If you don't watch Super Rugby, I'd advise you try get to see either a Southern Kinds or Cheetahs game this weekend. You'll see for yourself that they can actually play decent rugby, and at the very least they won't be any worse than what we currently have (my prediction is that they'd both be challenging for RCC spots, but it's all contingent on what personnel they can hang onto).

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 3:48pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

But if the structure is changing every season how do you fairly split home/away games?

The structure doesn't change every season. The seedings is just to avoid a conference of death type of situation. Within conference you would then play teams home and away. Between conference you play 3 or 4 teams at home, and 3 or 4 teams away.

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 3:49pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

The structure doesn't change every season. The seedings is just to avoid a conference of death type of situation. Within conference you would then play teams home and away. Between conference you play 3 or 4 teams at home, and 3 or 4 teams away.

OK, but my question still stands. How do you fairly split up home and away games between sides if you're changing who they are playing every season?

connemara man · 03-07-2017 3:53pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

My preference would be every season, but I'm not sure if I'd be alone on that.

That would turn awkward quickly. You can't guarantee a balance of home and away matches. Over the course of a few years.

For me leagues should be simple. Look at the mayhem about the European qualification was like up until now ( now it's a meritocratic system). Now what's being proposed is a 2 conference system (now we know no deteil), with rotating teams season on season (now that's just you) for me I see commentators and journalists will be spending more time explaining what each match will mean and what for than talking about the match itself

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 4:01pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

OK, but my question still stands. How do you fairly split up home and away games between sides if you're changing who they are playing every season?

There is literally no way to fairly split up home and away games between sides, unless you implement a Top 14 schedule, which nobody wants.

Under my proposed system, the within-conference games obviously take care of themselves as they are H+A. The fairest way to then balance the between-conference games, would be to rotate, almost like the Six Nations, where odd years you play 3 games at home, even years you get 4, or something like that. You could then simply randomly allocate the opponents, or weight them based on previous year's performance (almost like what they do in the NFL). I guess it would depend on how much arithmetic the audience will tolerate.

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 4:06pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

There is literally no way to fairly split up home and away games between sides, unless you implement a Top 14 schedule, which nobody wants.

The fairest way is the Six Nations system. Which works if the teams in each division are consistent each year.

Neil3030 wrote: »

Under my proposed system, the within-conference games obviously take care of themselves as they are H+A. The fairest way to then balance the between-conference games, would be to rotate, almost like the Six Nations, where odd years you play 3 games at home, even years you get 4, or something like that. You could then simply randomly allocate the opponents, or weight them based on previous year's performance (almost like what they do in the NFL). I guess it would depend on how much arithmetic the audience will tolerate.

I'm not sure if you're missing something or I'm missing something. You cannot alternate which games are home and away if the teams in each division are changing every year.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 4:15pm

irishbucsfan wrote: »

The fairest way is the Six Nations system. Which works if the teams in each division are consistent each year.

I'm not sure if you're missing something or I'm missing something. You cannot alternate which games are home and away if the teams in each division are changing every year.

You wouldn't alternate the opponents, just the number of home and away games. So Leinster have 4 BC home games this year, 3 the next, 4 the next, 3 the next, and so on. The actual opponents are then decided each year, either by random allocation or by some weighted selection system.

I get what you're saying about fixing the groups, and doing a 6N style rotation on the BC games. I guess the risk with that, is that one conference develops into a conference of death, with the other presenting an easier ride to the playoffs/RCC. Allocating them them each year would help avoid this.

ArmaniJeanss · 03-07-2017 4:38pm

Neil3030 wrote: »

You wouldn't alternate the opponents, just the number of home and away games. So Leinster have 4 BC home games this year, 3 the next, 4 the next, 3 the next, and so on. The actual opponents are then decided each year, either by random allocation or by some weighted selection system.

I get what you're saying about fixing the groups, and doing a 6N style rotation on the BC games. I guess the risk with that, is that one conference develops into a conference of death, with the other presenting an easier ride to the playoffs/RCC. Allocating them them each year would help avoid this.

Well your basic problem with this is what if your seeding system says that these 7 teams should be in the same conference, but it so happens that they are the 7 teams that were on a run of 4H 3A games the previous year?
You can't do both the seeding and the fair schedule every year unless you get very lucky.
Every second year for any seeding rejig seems fairer for what its worth imo as everyone will have played an equal amount of H&A games, and will have played everyone else H&A also.

Neil3030 · 03-07-2017 4:42pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Well your basic problem with this is what if your seeding system says that these 7 teams should be in the same conference, but it so happens that they are the 7 teams that were on a run of 4H 3A games the previous year?
You can't do both the seeding and the fair schedule every year unless you get very lucky.
Every second year for any seeding rejig seems fairer for what its worth imo as everyone will have played an equal amount of H&A games, and will have played everyone else H&A also.

That's a fair point, yeah. Would also provide a larger sample of games to get a more accurate reflection of how good a team are. *cough* Connacht *cough* :pac:

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 4:45pm

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Well your basic problem with this is what if your seeding system says that these 7 teams should be in the same conference, but it so happens that they are the 7 teams that were on a run of 4H 3A games the previous year?
You can't do both the seeding and the fair schedule every year unless you get very lucky.
Every second year for any seeding rejig seems fairer for what its worth imo as everyone will have played an equal amount of H&A games, and will have played everyone else H&A also.

Yeah, that's what I'm getting at!

LeinsterDub · 03-07-2017 9:55pm

dregin wrote: »

It's a very short-term view that will ultimately fail, where nurturing rugby in countries closer to home would have a far bigger advantage in the long term.

Unfortunately we don't have time for the long term. We are loosing the financial arms race. We can't wait 20 years. In 20 years only the C list players will be playing in Ireland if we continue on the same path. In poker terms we are in third getting blinded out of it so we are going all in on the only decent hand we've gotten in a while.

awec · 03-07-2017 10:00pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Unfortunately we don't have time for the long term. We are loosing the financial arms races. We can't wait 20 years. In 20 years only the C list players will be playing in Ireland if we continue on the same path. In poker terms we are in third getting blinded out of it so we are going all in on the only decent hand we've got.

I don't think bringing in South African teams is going to solve that problem.

IMO the first thing the unions should be doing to improve the image of the league and raise the standard is stop treating it like it's something to fill in the gaps between test rugby and european rugby. The christmas and new year derbies are a joke at this stage when they really should be among the biggest games of the year, and how many times through the season do we see first choice teams fielded?

It's unsurprising that the league is falling behind when the approach taken toward it by those who run it is a bit half arsed.

awec · 03-07-2017 10:07pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

There is big money being talked about. Double TV rights at least.

If it's not sustainable what's the point?

This SA thing really has to hit the ground running. I don't see it working at all if the teams are dross for a few seasons.

LeinsterDub · 03-07-2017 10:08pm

awec wrote: »

I don't think bringing in South African teams is going to solve that problem.

IMO the first thing the unions should be doing to improve the image of the league and raise the standard is stop treating it like it's something to fill in the gaps between test rugby and european rugby. The christmas and new year derbies are a joke at this stage when they really should be among the biggest games of the year, and how many times through the season do we see first choice teams fielded?

It's unsurprising that the league is falling behind when the approach taken toward it by those who run it is a bit half arsed.

There is big money being talked about. Double TV rights at least. It's a simple case of demographics. The population of people who care about rugby in the 4 current nations is too small.

CMOTDibbler · 03-07-2017 10:11pm

awec wrote: »

I don't think bringing in South African teams is going to solve that problem.

IMO the first thing the unions should be doing to improve the image of the league and raise the standard is stop treating it like it's something to fill in the gaps between test rugby and european rugby. The christmas and new year derbies are a joke at this stage when they really should be among the biggest games of the year, and how many times through the season do we see first choice teams fielded?

That's not going to change whatever way the league is set up. Irish rugby is first and foremost about the international squad and provincial rugby prioritises the european competition because of the money it brings in.

The Pro 12/14 has to compete with that and that means getting more money in.

irishbucsfan · 03-07-2017 10:12pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

There is big money being talked about. Double TV rights at least. It's a simple case of demographics. The population of people who care about rugby in the 4 current nations is too small.

I'm not sure I believe that. Purely because South Africans couldn't care less about our sides and they won't watch those games. I don't believe they'll bring enough viewers to justify doubling the TV rights for 2 games per week when the two sides are unlikely to make the playoffs.

Also it'll be competing with the Currie Cup for part of the season and Super Rugby for another part I think?

14 team Pro 12 from 2017/2018??

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