South Africa V Ireland, Second Test Build-up Thread

Just a few thoughts, in no specific order of importance or coherence:

- Part of me is now wondering if Coetzee will go for broke... The SA media began bawling for a reversion to type as soon as the match finished last week; I posted the post-match analysis on SA TV and in it you can see Nick Mallet setting the tone straight from the off, calling for more physical domination, more line-speed, more direct running <sigh>.

- We have always been a very smart team under Joe, and it particularly shows when we play France and South Africa - probably the least smart* of all the top teams. You have to imagine that we have a plan ready for any return of the prodigal Saffer bish-bosh: e.g., if Olding is at inside centre, you can be sure there are several reasons for this beyond giving him a run. If Gilroy is on the wing, this is to exploit space in more than one area of the pitch, etc.

- Although the intensity and physical element is all you can realistically expect a team to improve on in the space of a week, Coetzee is surely smart enough to know that (a) this Bok team cannot physically dominate us (pretty sure we have the heavier pack?) and (b) we will be ready for this, their most likely retaliation. So might he go for broke? Go harlem globetrotters on us? Not entirely sure how he does that in only a few more training sessions...

- One area I'm concerned about is the aerial game. Mvovo looked very good under the high ball last week, and with Payne and Gilroy now in our back 3, this could be an area they will attack.

*I obviously don't mean in terms of general IQ, but more in terms of teams sticking turgidly to a predictable stlye of play, or having absolutely no tactical preparation beyond 'roughing them up'.

sulberto wrote: »

Was thinking about this earlier, and trying to remember back to the post world cup tours last time; don't the SH teams tend to build in world cup cycles so are generally weaker for a season or two while building experience and partnerships towards a world cup (new players will have about 20/30 caps by then). While the NH teams tend be more focused on the here and now results.

I think France claim to do something similar; don't the Top14 make certain allowances in World Cup years or something?

rsh118 wrote: »

Incredible selection by Schmidt. I'm most interested to see how Olding goes, he's a superb footballer and Schmidt is obviously looking for a second five rather than a centre as such. Marshall and Olding would be a great combo to have in the bag for one position.

Also, 1.25 says Olding is being groomed as the All-New Most Versatile Man in Ireland (tm).

If we have a full back who can cover wing (zebo or TOH seem like the front runners) then he'll be an excellent option to have for the foreseeable future.

former total wrote: »

Not sure I'd read that much into it tbh, Joe went from D'Arcy to Henshaw and even picked McCloskey in a 6N game this year, so a "footballing" 12 wouldn't seem to be a priority for him.

I'm also very excited to see Olding too though.

I was only thinking yesterday about McCloskey.
So near and yet so far now for him.
He must be delighted to see his team and teammates do so well, but part of him must have been thinking "ah Luke FFS!!!!" as (if) he watched last weeks game!

Next up in my tables of comparison, is the battle of the beef. Having been burned by Wikipedia's charlatanry with the number of caps, I went to the official SA and Ire websites for these figures (side note, the SA website also lists players' marital status, you know, if that's what you're into).

Beastness index (kg): Beastnessindex (kg):
8 Vermeulen 108 110 Heaslip
7 Kolisi 98 111 Ruddock
6 Louw 114 121 Henderson
5 duToit 116 124 Roux
4 Etzebeth 117 124 Toner
3 Malherbe 122 119 Furlong
2 Strauss 114 105 Best
1 Mtawarira 115 118 McGrath

Total: 904 932


16 Mbonambi 106 101 Strauss
17 Nyakane 123 112 Kilcoyne
18 Redelinghuys 100 122 Bealham
19 Mostert 103 114 Ryan
20 Whiteley 97 105 Reidy

Total: 529 554

If these figures are to be believed, we actually have a significant edge in the weights of our packs.

(Obviously not going to include weights for the backs, as they are just there to look pretty.)

Think SA will be a different prospect on the high veld in front of a hostile crowd
It will go to a decider which probably explains some of the selections

Billysays no wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that the team put out for tomorrow is not a second team. I see furlong as at least equal to ross and potentially better. I see roux as a physical player who will counter any SA physical battle. I see Henderson in the backrow as a positive. Then I see Olding as easily comparable to marshall and I see the inclusion of Gilroy gives an excitement dimension. So I, for once, can't raise many negatives and I see no reason why this team cannot beat SA.

Yeah, definitely agree with this - while last weeks team was top class impressive, this weekends could be even better. Of course, reality is that some bits will be better, others won't be as good, but still, its an exciting, *different* team, not a lesser one.

Billysays no wrote: »

I'm of the opinion that the team put out for tomorrow is not a second team. I see furlong as at least equal to ross and potentially better. I see roux as a physical player who will counter any SA physical battle. I see Henderson in the backrow as a positive. Then I see Olding as easily comparable to marshall and I see the inclusion of Gilroy gives an excitement dimension. So I, for once, can't raise many negatives and I see no reason why this team cannot beat SA.

It's an exciting squad and while I'm not sure they'll win (due to altitude and a Bok bounceback) it will hopefully be a really useful exercise.

When all is said and done we will come home from this tour with at least one victory and huge experience for guys who previously didn't have a lot.

We've Jackson and Marshall have breakthrough tests, we are seeing Henshaw, Murray, Toner and Payne become leaders right in front of our eyes and hopefully after tomorrow we will see Furlong give a good account of himself from the get go and we will have seen Roux and possibly O'Halloran and Reidy win their first caps.

Thinking about our depth next year it is very exciting

LH - McGrath, Healy, Kilcoyne
TH - Ross, Furlong, Bealham, Moore
Hooker - Best, Cronin, Strauss
Lock - Toner, *Henderson, Dillane, Roux, Ryan
Back Row - O'Mahony, Stander, O'Brien, Van Der Flier, Henry, Murphy, Reidy, Heaslip
Scrum Half - Murray, Marmion, Reddan
Out Half - Sexton, Jackson, Madigan
Centre - Olding, Marshall, Henshaw, McCloskey
Wings - Trimble, Bowe, Fitzgerald, D.Kearney, Earls, Zebo, Gilroy, Healy
Full Back - *Payne, Kearney, O'Halloran

That's 43 players and it's not including some young guys who aren't on tour like Ringrose, Adeoluken, Scholes (moving to Edinburgh probably puts him out of the picture), O'Donoghue and Conan

Adbrowne wrote: »

McCartney qualifies next year i think at connacht

30th October 2018

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

I dont think you could. Neither will contend for 1st choice. But both are still part of strength in depth.
If there are injuries and they are needed, the IRFU will phone long distance.

They're goners. Maybe Moore in a couple of years if he signs deal to come back but nope until then. IRFU will be thinking long term and they're not gonna sacrifice the only negotiating chip they have for two guys who have never been first choice internationals.