FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
Comments
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
It might have been the ‘Braer’ storm in Jan 1993 named after a tanker that broke up in Shetland causing a disastrous oil spill?
Thankfully these frightening charts are over a week away, I think we can all do without widespread destruction.
2 -
Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1597
It remains to be seen if high pressure to our east will inhibit Atlantic systems from making a direct impact in Ireland and Britain later next week.
One thing is for sure is that forecast deep cold over the eastern half of North America will fire up the Jetstream.
www.weatheire.com
6 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1597
This afternoon's GFS run is throwing up a right 'Spectacle' for next weekend with dual low pressure systems bringing strong winds and rain to Ireland and Britain.
The GEM and UKMO also suggest windy and wet conditions. The general theme of unsettled conditions for the second half of next week continues as a very active Atlantic weather regime takes hold.
There are a few GEFS perturbations showing colder air in place ahead of these Atlantic systems. Will be interesting to see if this develops further in future runs.
Generally, such an outcome is not well supported at present as the below ensembles for Jan 23-24th show below.
Post edited by WolfeEire onwww.weatheire.com
13 -
ECM has the storm closer and deeper on this run. Spell of snow for Connacht and Ulster from it that washes away quickly. It continues to deepen as it approaches Ireland getting down to 933mb a few hundred kms offshore. A further slight correction east and it’s a nasty day. You can view it in more detail on wxcharts and ecm comes out earlier there.
4 -
-
-
A more recent example in 2011 as well, we had some snow in Donegal from this one, as well as lots of really intense thundery hail squalls.
I remember the December 98 one as well, huge storm left us without power for about 5 days and the storm was immediately followed by a really cold week with snow and ice
6 -
Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1597
For fear of being forgotten about, the CFS sends the Jetstream south next weekend, builds the Scandi high and slaps an easterly over us during the following week 🙃
www.weatheire.com
10 -
Yes good ol JS is on ramp mode calling for red warnings a week out. Just as he did start of January for snow. What a fool he was, yet thousands were stranded across the South Midlands for 4 days and cars were abandoned in Charleville as the nearby hotel came to their rescue!! Sure was only a snow showers.
Anyway on to AI model, a direct hit bringing breezy conditions to the Southwest
1 -
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1597
When looking at this evening's model output showing exceptionally stormy conditions for Ireland and Britain around a week out from now, bear in mind that the end result will likely be different in terms of intensity, exact track of any system, likely impact etc.
Any such system has not yet formed. The smallest of changes to multiple variables 3,000 miles from here over the coming few days will have a bearing on what happens a week from now. Ridging high pressure to our east could also inhibit the eastward trajectory of systems.
Keep an eye on the trend, which is for the Jetstream to become fired up next week and to act as a conveyor belt for low pressure systems across the Atlantic. Tonight's GEFS mean continues to show the potential for stormy conditions on these islands next week. The finer details will come into focus early next week.
Don't go panic buying bread and toilet roll.
www.weatheire.com
7 -
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
The storm looks deep alright but the only model bringing any significant winds our way is the Icon which comes with its usual health warning. ECM possibly yellow on the west coast Friday afternoon, GFS keeps the winds to the south and then east of us but even highest gusts out to see aren't notable. GEM similar to ECM.
3
