FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2024/2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

A good example I thought of too. But more so the bigger issue was we couldn't get an undercut to prop up the easterly, given how far east the high was. If the Atlantic undercut on the below, my word - there was severe severe cold out East. Alas we just ended up in no mans land in the arm of WAA.

In these cases, you probably want the Atlantic to push even further east because a strong block will disrupt it SE and lock in the cold. The below was mere days before BFTE 2018…if you looked at this in isolation would you have thought anything worthwhile was going to follow, with that huge lobe of vortex over Canada/Greenland? 2018 had the SSW to aid chances of course so a different thing. But it's not beyond the realms of possibility that we get some sort of weak split in the vortex and a big high to the NE can eventually beat back the lobe to our NW and an LP from it undercuts and causes a cold easterly.

Nah that was December 2012. 12z, 5th December to be exact. Complete bust. I bought into that at the time being a young lad, but looking back at 'that ECM', it was a couple of amazing charts in FI for a single suite basically. The roll backs started the next run! Netweather held it up as some promised thing that it just never was for some reason. EDIT: Sryan beat me to it!

Day 10 before the cold air starts making inroads

And why would you think that?

That were it to come to pass would be interesting as its more ESE over Ireland with a gigantic water fetch for its cold sourced air from the north of Cornwall to Louth,probably 200 miles?

Yep 18Z GFS going for a full blown easterly with undercutting lows!

No definite pattern emerging so far but there's definitely some signal of pressure building towards our north east driving an easterly across Europe

Wow, I know it's FI, but that is some flip in the charts in one day. The ECM is slowly starting to come on board too.

The air would be nowhere near as modified by the Atlantic coming from the east so not really comparable to low pressure from the NW, -6 to -8C would be plenty cold.

Main issue would be high pressure suppressing any shower activity, though 500hPa heights are relatively low so probably still enough instability for streamers to get going

First time I have ever seen a -12 850 modelled to hit us from the west!

Oh absolutely and I don't expect it to come close to happening, at the same time I have never seen it modelled before in a perturbation, op, control or otherwise.

Well holy God, Ireland would be left with a lunar landscape after that passed through.