FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121371125#Comment_121371125

Would much rather the cold snap or spell in late December but at that time wind storms seem to be very common.

I’m still 100% certain Christmas Day will be very mild and either dry or wet around 14/15 C

leahyl

Keep up the reverse psychology guys....maybe it'll work this time.... "the charts are saying it's gonna be cold, I bet it'll be mild and wet"....BAM! Extended cold spell with blizzards!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121371887#Comment_121371887

I like your thinking.

Meanwhile:

PokeHerKing

At least it was a short garden path this time.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121372820#Comment_121372820

Aww I would love if this verified

Elmer Blooker

winter fast approaching and ‘it’ has arrived ..

bazlers

Oh dear..good old Azores..

mcburns07

What would this mean? Settled and pretty mild, 10-12c?

highdef

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377020#Comment_121377020

Fingers crossed "it" does arrive and stays close by or even over us for an extended period as the country really could do with a dryer and more settled spell.

Derekon2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121371168#Comment_121371168

Sounds quite delicious!

D

pauldry

Think the 6 week deluge has to take its foot off the gas for a while eventually so November prob

Till 20th rain and unsettled

21st to 23rd mainly dry showers approaching NW

24th to 28th more showery spells especially N and W

29th 30th cold snap -2c at night and 4c by day

December Azores High mild 13c until freezing around Xmas right?

TheMilkyPirate

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121377020#Comment_121377020

Stick it right on top of us please. Absolutely sick of this **** rain

Squeaksoutloud

The Azores must get great weather with all this high pressure it sometimes sends up to us 😁

nacho libre

Horrible profile over Greenland, but we could do well in the longer term if that high to the north east is sustained.

esposito

Pesky Azores high too close to us. Otherwise not a bad chart, almost into the reliable timeframe.

Scotland and eastern England getting some sleet/snow showers perhaps.

pauldry

Cold rain and hail possibly for Ireland from that chart.

Short lived frequent showers is usually what you get in Sligo from that chart.

Comhrá

What I wouldn't give for a week of clear frosty nights and calm days with cloudless blue skies and bright winter sunshine.

InAtFullBack

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121381821#Comment_121381821

I think any settled spell that is courtesy of a western/Offshore Atlantic based high pressure would be of the foggy kind given the current conditions.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121381821#Comment_121381821

I think we would all love this to happen. It does look like we may be going into a quieter spell of weather over the next few weeks compared to what we've been used to for the majority of Autumn 2023. We are not going into a totally dry, crisp and frosty spell of weather but it does appear there will be more settled conditions with maybe some patchy night frosts, but cloud and some showers around from time to time will dilute the appearance of things being mostly settled. The deluge season is over for now and after a relatively mild week to come we are going into a slightly cooler than average spell from next weekend.

Billcarson

Gfs still going for cold weather next weekend.

For the rest of the run after next weekend it continues the cold theme.

mcburns07

Heading to Stockholm on Thursday, looking pretty frigid!

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121385059#Comment_121385059

Stockholm is a great city. Enjoy! (and the cold)

pauldry

GFS does this cold run thing annually at this time of year. That's why other models have ignored it. There will probably be a Northerly and perhaps some wintry showers but snow would be limited to Scotland and East England. We'll get rain hail and sleet showers but a lot of dry weather. Frosts at night.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121386133#Comment_121386133

Yes please!

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121386133#Comment_121386133

I would take that. Nice crisp dry frosty weather would be great, especially after all the rain we have had lately. I'm not too bothered about snow yet at this point in the season .

bazlers

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121386133#Comment_121386133

ECM Seems to have introduced a stiff North East to East...potential there anyhow.

Im sure thing will change two ot three times between now and then. Tough to hold the atlantic on slaught back.

PokeHerKing

Yeah ECM back on board again, all be it at day 10.

GFS has us in a NE flow by this day next week. Nothing crazy and short lived but some sort of converging between the two at least.

sryanbruen

Been keeping quiet on this matter as I believed it would be a classic case of GFS being the GFS. To be honest, I still believe that. There has been little evidence from the drivers to suggest anything worth talking about or anything outside of the usual.

We see a period of northerly winds in most Novembers. The only interest from my point of view is that there seems to be a reasonably decent cold pool residue over northeastern Europe this year compared to what we have been getting used to. This is perhaps aided by the fact that Scandinavia had quite a snowy October. This could mean any easterly winds would possibly have more of a bite to them if we were to ever get them.

I would be very surprised if we get any shot at conditions conducive to a widespread cold spell, whether that be harsh frosts, ice days or snowfalls, this side of New Year due to the El Niño which historically leans towards more backloaded winters.

I will do a well overdue post update for the winter itself in the winter thread shortly.

FWIW, the latest GEFS show quite a prolonged period of below average temperatures through the final week of November into the beginning of December. The ECM ensembles are not nearly as keen with much more of a spread. That tells me both ensembles are seeing a chance of a northerly but GFS is much more amplified allowing a longer outbreak rather than a one day topple affair with any ridging collapsing to the south of us immediately after. Does make me wonder where GFS is getting its idea of amplification from though.

After a drier period but not completely dry, I would anticipate a return to windy and wet conditions through December going back to the El Niño. Before then, any high pressure until a northerly comes will probably be the dry and cloudy sort. An improvement for those who rather it dry or a more seasonable feel but personally I'd hope for better than what is being shown.

nacho libre

The ECM and UKMO do seem more realistic given the background drivers.

Also amplification into Greenland would be going against how el nino winters are usually back loaded in terms of cold. So a few settled days before we go back to unsettled weather does seem more likely. To be honest like everyone else I would love a prolonged cold and dry spell, but i' d like it even more around Christmas week. If it can't be cold and snowy, cold and dry is the next best thing. I'd take the next three weeks being unsettled for that to happen.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121387997#Comment_121387997

As you were saying recently, a 2000 situation would be epic. The first few weeks of that December were very wet continuing on from the deluge autumn but then the cold arrived just before Christmas and the Christmas to New Year was severely cold with a lovely polar low on the 27th/28th.