FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

nacho libre

Some tasty looking GFS ensemble members in fi. Is this a sign of straw clutching or something that will gain traction and become a trend 🤔

almostthere12

Is this the effects of the Canadian warming deep into fi?

gerrybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121436844#Comment_121436844

What does that suggest?

almostthere12

To me it’s the shunting of the vortex over to the North Atlantic.

pauldry

This looks like a nice day deep in FI

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121436444#Comment_121436444

just looking at the GFS 6z set and not as much support for a cold outbreak mid month compared to the 12z and 18z yesterday which did show a minority but increasing support. There are still a few properly cold runs but these are very isolated, the overall majority feature relatively mild or neutral conditions, at the same time not much support for properly mild weather either.

Robwindstorm

They are some storms that are showing up at the end of that run. MT is leaning towards this scenario. Plenty of time after this disturbed pattern to bring in the cold for Christmas. In the meantime it looks like the chainsaw instead of ⛷️

WolfeEire

My key takeaway from MT's morning forecast is the reference to low/storm systems tracking toward the Bay of Biscay as the month goes on. This is borne out in the GEM and leaves us on the cold/milder airmass dividing line which could produce wintry or, at least, more seasonal weather. A colder than average December is well on the cards at this stage should the latter transpire.

Robwindstorm

The storm here on the 16th Dec on the GFS is massive. The earlier one for England and France looks incredible too. These will be watered down the next few runs but might reappear closer to the time. The long range predictions on the GFS are preforming quite well lately. Interesting times weather watching!

Gonzo

Icon 12z fails to bring in the mild for next week with the Atlantic really struggling to gain a foothold next week.

Low pressure with a warm sector brushes to the south of Ireland will rain along coastal areas.

Low pressures continue to track over southern Ireland or offshore with winds in from a chilly continental south-easterly direction and daytime temperatures still in low single digits.

By Friday the chilly air is still clinging on in Ireland with a very chilly south-easterly wind with much milder air lurking just off the south-west but making very little if any progress across Ireland.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121438396#Comment_121438396

GEM and GFS less aggressive with Atlantic push too so far. The op runs at least

Robwindstorm

GFS alot colder this time alright. The 4th of December looks nasty on a couple of models, east to north east gales with driving rain, sleet and wet snow.

Gonzo

GFS 12z gets us milder but only for a few days around next weekend then back into relatively chilly temperatures. If this verifies we could be in for a slightly cooler than average December. Overall a huge variety of weather on offer after next weekend with everything you can think of on the horizon so very difficult right now to make any sort of a forecast beyond a few days with any sort of confidence.

Rebelbrowser

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121435939#Comment_121435939

The CFS has actually been showing that for 11 to 13 December off and on for over a week. Maybe it knows something (after all)...

WolfeEire

ECM keeps it colder a tad longer on this run, although it becomes gradually less cold. Azores high not extending as far north with Scandi heights extending much further west. Will see what the ENS show later. Interesting times. Perhaps, the model bias toward a raging Atlantic underestimated those heights and the massive cold pool over Northwest Europe and Europe in general.

pureza

As we all know,the high stakes risk here is that the clold block stalls the storms over Ireland without any cold in place here,it being no closer than Eastern Britain

When warmer air meets cold,it just enhances the precipitation which would be wasted when it's not cold enough to snow

Elmer Blooker

here’s a day 10 chart that you could bet your savings on, all this ‘the cold over Europe will be hard to shift’ stuff is a load of tripe, the Atlantic is powerful enough to influence the weather as far away as Russia as we see time and time again and every winter in recent years.

esposito

There we have it folks. Elmer writes off winter on the first day of meteorological winter.

nacho libre

He is right though about the cold being hard to shift myth, 2010 was proof of that. Entrenched cold may mean fronts slow down and the temperatures don't rise as rapidly, but rarely do wee see a complete flip back to cold outlooks. In some of today's run it looks like the cold pool leaves Scandinavia. Still at least the mjo is cycling into a phase that is more favourable for blocking. So let's get any less cold or milder weather out of the way now so we can go into the freezer in time for Christmas and the New Year

.Donegal.

Potentially stormy next Wednesday night/Thursday morning

giveitholly

Is there going to be any Winter FI charts thread?

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121441522#Comment_121441522

I am sure one be along soon enough!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121441522#Comment_121441522

In the process now, December snook up on me very quickly in the end.

Ok the Winter 120 FI Thread is open for business!

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058325256/fi-charts-t120-onwards-winter-2023-2024-read-mod-note-in-first