FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121394932#Comment_121394932

The cold charts from the GFS and recent ECM are just trolling us, it's the same thing leading into every winter, charts which never make it beyond the FI 120 hours thread. IF we do actually get some proper cold weather hopefully it will be during the Christmas holidays or sometime in January. Early December can still be a bit early for proper cold unless we get a December 2010 direct hit special which is highly unlikely. For now I think most of us are more than happy with high pressure/frosty nights and a well deserved break from what seems like months of a continuous deluge pattern.

Hooter23

We could easily go from a country that gets very little snow to a country that gets too much snow...it only takes a slight change in the weather pattern to do this...all we need is the wind direction to change to the north east / east and we would be living in a very cold country like many other parts of europe...this has happened in the past and will happen again....where it was so cold in ireland and the UK that it was called the little "ice age"...it was so cold that the rivers froze over every winter and can last anything up to 30 years or more...

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395585#Comment_121395585

yeah once we get a proper unstable long fetch easterly or northeasterly the snow starts building very quickly. All it takes is one decent Irish sea streamer and several inches of snow can fall within a hour or 2, and once under streamers you can get several of these over the course of a day and into the night. Add several days of this setup and you have a December 2010, February 2018 style snow event in no time. The problem is these events are so rare basically once every 10 years or so. Majority of times we get cold weather in the winter it's usually not an unstable flow e.g. pressure too high or it's a northerly/northwesterly where the show trains just drift down the Irish sea avoiding us and Wales gets plastered instead. Other times the events happen too early or too late in the season and the warm sea surface temperatures just produces cold rain or sleet e.g November easterlies or late March or April easterlies.

Easterlies are not always snow makers as I said pressure can be too high or the easterly is far too early in the season or too late into the Spring. Other times the easterly may not be along fetch easterly, could be sourced from central Europe instead which are usually not that cold or have a south-easterly source which is not the coldest of wind directions.

As for northerlies most of the time they have very little impact on Ireland as they are usually 24 hour northerly topplers which are dry for the most part. Other times the northerlies have too much mixing from the warm North Atlantic to be a snow maker and we end up with wintry showers or cold rain. Proper unstable northerlies sourced from the Artic/North-east Greenland are rarer than hens teeth, perhaps even more rare than unstable easterlies and the last one was December 2010, the last one before that was probably December 2000 or earlier. Unstable northerlies still exist but 9 times out of 10 they end up dominating the eastern half of Europe with high pressure close to or over Ireland instead or an Atlantic low pressure topples in over us and we're back in mild air.

It's close to 6 years since the last proper widespread and disruptive easterly/north-easterly so we're likely to get one a some point over the next 5 winters since we've been waiting 5 winters already.

The frustration of being a snow bunny in eastern Ireland. It's very rare but in terms of snow it's either a feast or a famine and unfortunately for us it's a famine almost every winter.

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395585#Comment_121395585

As long as we stay a wealthy country we'd adapt pretty easily I imagine.

Bring it on I say, ice hockey/skating in my local park every winter would be excellent!

sideswipe

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121395585#Comment_121395585

True. I saw a documentary once about the ocean currents that circulate water around the world being shut down overnight, heating up the tropics and cooling the North Atlantic. The result was a catastrophic storm and a dramatic change in the global climate. A paleoclimatologist called Jack, made a daring trek from Washington, D.C. to New York City to reach his son, trapped in a library with only books to burn and keep warm. The sudden international storm plunged the planet into a new Ice Age as people fled south to escape the deep freeze.

Learn more:

stooge

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121396748#Comment_121396748

Yes, I think the name of it was.... "The day, 2 days from today".....😏

In all seriousness though.... the "Mini Ice ages" that are mentioned above... Are these normally triggered by major disasters? e.g. Krakatoa etc?

WolfeEire

El pub run

😐

SeaBreezes

Im interested in a solar theory by solar physicist Valentina Zharkova.https://www.northumbria.ac.uk/about-us/our-staff/z/valentina-zharkova/ She and her team identified a pattern to the suns 'heartbeat' they explained that the suns magnetic oscilations go into 'phase' (forgive my complete uneducated explanation) at certain times, causing a weaking of energy from the sun affecting climate and in previous ages, triggering ice ages. Less energy from the sun, we have a less dense atmosphere, allowing more cosmic rays thro, affecting volcanic activity, more eruptions, more cloud, more cooling. She and her team said they could predict the pattern and the 2010 sun cycle would be half the strength of previous cycles. She was one of 2 people world wide who predicted this. (Nasa was wrong) she was right. She also said, this sun current cycle would be similar to last, followed by 2 very weak non existent ones, followed by a warming cycle. She warned of shorter growing cycles, weather patterns changing and food shortages by 2028. She asked govs to start prepping for this. The other bloke who correctly predicated the last sun cycle said this cycle would be a normal cycle. I am watching to see whos right. But I did notice no strawberries to be had this last few weeks due to 'a shorter growing season in the EU' .. who knows?

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121398599#Comment_121398599

I have strawberries in my fridge at the moment and have had them the last month or two?

Cornerstonelad

Strawberries can only be grown in an artificial environment in Northern Europe at this time of the year. They need heat, cover and artificial light no matter what era it was. Netherlands, Belgium and some Irish still about. Spain, Egypt and Morocco should start up soon to replace these, unless curtailed by freak weather.

Gonzo

The pub run got a bit tipsy tonight for sure, still very little in the way of snow for us but certainly some cold days with low single digits and night time temperatures below freezing and maybe a few light flurries if we get lucky.

If none of the properly cold charts verify it still looks as if we'll be going into a relatively cool spell regardless over the coming 7 to 10 days. Not much rain either in the foreseeable future but that is subject to change even at short notice.

pauldry

Certainly a transition now as the 6 week monsoon has ended and the weather tries to decide what next. Probably dry and fairly meh most of the next 2 weeks. Some light frost but cloud at times meaning temperatures in the low singles more likely at night. Some short rain spells not adding to much.

almostthere12

Interesting charts this morning!

nacho libre

The UKMO is less interesting. Still whatever happens it's looking like it will be dry and cool for a while at least. It doesn't look like we will have the conveyor belt of lows that many predicted for early December. Now that I said it the next GFS run will probably show a zonal onslaught:)

sryanbruen

GEFS mean shows a Scandi by Monday 27th..

ECM mean shows a very slight rise in heights over Scandi by then but main centre/strong signal stays in Biscay and the North Atlantic.

Messy, messy, messy. Much more interest than I could have ever anticipated but my main attention is on what could happen down the line stratospheric wise which could prove very compelling.

😙

Gonzo

What a strange autumn it's been for me at least. All I can remember from start of September to first week of October is warm summer like conditions due to the very warm weather first half of September. I went to Spain after this and as soon as I got back we had a very warm opening week of October with again summer like conditions! Once the very warm October spell ended we were then in a deluge pattern which has only come to an end and now we are looking at some fairly interesting charts to end the Autumn.

We can look forward to more in the way of drier weather, certainly the deluges have stopped for now and we are getting a welcome break from the Atlantic onslaught.

The GFS is certainly going for a proper cooldown final days of the month and opening week of December with it perhaps turning milder and more unsettled as we head towards the end of the first week of December. The overall trend on the GEM and ECM is not as overly cool as what the GFS is showing.

ECM has it turning chilly for 2 to 3 days at most around the start of December rather than a 1 week long cool spell which the GFS is hinting at.

Looks mostly dry over the next 4 to 5 days and then maybe chances of some showery precipitation after that. This could be my final post here in the Autumn FI thread as I'll probably start work on the all important Winter FI thread soon and open that up a few days before the golden gates of winter swing open for business.

IF we do manage to get lucky and get a proper easterly, I hope it's not for another 2 to 3 weeks at least, preferably during the Christmas/New Years period or sometime in January when we are further on into mid winter and the sea temperatures have cooled somewhat.

JanuarySnowstor

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121398813#Comment_121398813

The charts are far from meh. The potential in the next week or so is something we haven't seen since 2010. The gfs has been leading the pack and the rest are following, for now anyway! Some type of cold looks certain, the only thing up in the air is it going to be a memorable event!

PokeHerKing

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121400988#Comment_121400988

Christ.

WolfeEire

The models have now grabbed my interest big time. Nothing Baltic on the horizon, but a months-in-waiting break from incessant rainfall is universally supported in all models. Seasonal weather in late Nov/early December. GFS has been consistent for a week with other models toying with the notion. Pressure building over Scandi, Greenland and in the western Atlantic is wonderful to see. As MT indicated this morning, any colder airmass is likely to get diluted somewhat as a result of the warmer than normal seas off our west coast and are undermined somewhat by the lack of any entrenched cold over the continent. That said, what is signalled will be most welcomed. Also, the grass might stop bloody growing 😫

sicknotexi

Have to say there has been a significant flip by most the main models towards cold for late November/early December. Very interesting ECM coming up.

Gonzo

12z rolling out and it's a fairly wintry start to December especially for the Cork/Kerry region. Will this last another few days when I open the Winter FI thread...If things keep upgrading I may have to shut this thread down sooner than expected and just get going with Winter FI.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401298#Comment_121401298

Choooo chooooo

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401298#Comment_121401298

God when I see Gonzo getting a bit excited over charts I begin to believe there might be a chance of something brewing. At least the chase will be exciting even if nothing comes of it

Gonzo

CFS for what it's worth is also showing some rather interesting charts deep into FI with cold spells starting in about a weeks time and significant cold spells into January and February. It's also showing some high pressure at times but very little in the way of Atlantic dominance over the next 2 to 3 months. Of course this can all flip around very quickly back to the form horse but very interesting charts today across all models.

sryanbruen

Ooh la la. The blocking being shown on these charts, not just the GFS now, is nuts. Can't quite believe how this came out of nowhere, it's almost like a return ticket back to the old days. Will have to completely rethink winter thoughts IF this continues.

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401556#Comment_121401556

I wouldn't describe it as anyway unexpected or out of nowhere though.

If you just look at what followed the autumn 2009 deluges, (extreme example i know) an extended period of blocking is now quite likely.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401671#Comment_121401671

My thoughts too. Severe flooding in Nov 2009 capped off with Storm Carmen that month was followed by blocking in later Nov into Dec.

Captain Snow

I love the smell of impending snow...

Kermit.de.frog

We seem to be in to a cascading upgrade medium term outlook for cold on the models. It could get exciting sooner rather than later.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401683#Comment_121401683

"Carmen" was November 2010.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401671#Comment_121401671

It is from the stuff I look at. I could pick any random autumn of deluges and give very different results, 2019 for instance.

However, I have mentioned the year 2009 at numerous points in 2023 for similarities (El Nino, easterly QBO, the summer pattern including the very wet Julys) so not the worst example to be fair.