FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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Looks a big mess all round in the outlook with weak blocking in higher latitudes and a meridional jet stream over Ireland. Latest runs are not as wet as what has been showing but wouldn't surprise me if we continue to see exceptional wet conditions with this pattern that is giving me November 2009 and November 2019 vibes depending on which model run you're looking at.
Both featured blocking to the NE but in 2019 the jet stream was more southerly tracking and was colder whilst in 2009 it was amplified sending some of the energy northward and southward so was a much milder month. Both brought very wet conditions to different parts of the country with 2009 being more nationwide and of course the infamous floods in Cork whilst 2019 was drier in the northwest and the east was very wet.
I don't want to generate false hopes but this is generally speaking a good position to be in for down the line. Blocking to the NE of Europe perturbs the stratospheric polar vortex from intensifying. It is way too early to be talking about major sudden stratospheric warmings but this is something we want to see repeated again and again for any chance of blocking patterns in early 2024. In the meantime, the same pattern gives the prospects of lots of rain to come. With El Niño, a wet November is a very high chance anyway. There's very few Niño events where November isn't a very wet month.
I find it interesting how the CFSv2 is singing from the same hymn sheet with a vast amount of blocking in an ideal position for perturbing the SPV but Atlantic is rampant with a deep trough that would give lots of rain combined with the warm sea temperatures. A recipe for disaster. The blocking will also result in fronts being slow-moving.
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The extreme cold outbreak was 2010, not 2009. There was a northeasterly though at the end of November 2009 that gave some bad flooding here in the east near a fortnight after the Cork floods. 28th was quite a cold day in the north (though the same day a year later would be record-breaking cold!), think around Monaghan had freezing fog and it wasn't far from ice day conditions?
There was a significant disruption to the stratospheric polar vortex thanks to persistent Ural blocking in November 2009. This would end up becoming the driving force for the major blocking that would give us the cold spell from mid-December 2009 to mid-January 2010 as illustrated by the orange and red colours on the graph below downwelling from the stratosphere down to the trop.
Photography site - https://www.sryanbruenphoto.com/
Weather photo portfolio - https://sryanbruen.myportfolio.com/weather-1
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On the current run it looks like some of the energy probably absorbed with another area of Low pressure heading towards us or near us. Will see, many changes to come over the coming days but will see if a trend develops, worth keeping an eye on. Not showing up on the ECM though, wonder will it be on the 12Z when it comes out soon.
Both ECM and GFS keeping the Jet mostly South of us so looks to stay on the cooler side apart from brief milder interludes as fronts go through, looks about average for time of the year I would think. Low Pressures dominant in off the Atlantic giving a fairly wet outlook .
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