FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

Hooter23

The jetstream is going more south than usual for the next few weeks...its going down over france and even spain everytime it gets stronger so they will get alot of the storms we usually get...we will still get some storms but our normal weather pattern looks different...it could get very cold for us in the next few weeks and during winter if the jetstream stays like this...plenty of cold building up already and with storms going to the south of us we could get very wintery weather

.Donegal.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121314765#Comment_121314765

Yeah there was an air frost here last night and nice and sunny today. I’d take the unsettledness if it meant we got a proper windstorm up here as it has been years but failing that sunny and frosty would be nice.

nacho libre

Is the GFS leading us up the garden path?

Hooter23

Potential for more storms around the middle of November...

squarecircles

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121328132#Comment_121328132

Possible storm early next week, has popped up on the last two GFS runs.

typhoony

ECM not buying into the big storm next week

adocholiday

Not much in it, although GFS 12z has backed off a little bit. The potential from the GFS is coming from a low pressure system forming North of Bermuda around Saturday and coming in under the main low pressure system around Iceland and getting pulled up our Western side. The 06z was more severe because the position of the main low was further North East and deeper than the 12z, allowing this smaller more potent system more time to develop and travel further east. However the 12z shows a small spin off low from this system again, bringing some windy conditions across the country for a short time Tuesday.

ECM shows the same low as GFS starting to form around Bermuda but it doesn't develop and instead the main low splits turning back towards Greenland. A couple of small spin off lows might head our way Sunday night into Monday morning but nothing exceptional in terms of wind with that.

ICON showing a low coming from Canada and merging with the main low then again spinning around the southern flank and up to our West and could bring some blustery conditions to the west and up the Irish sea if that scenario were to play out but nothing severe.

GEM showing something similar to ICON, but also another spin off low heads our way to bring some windy conditions across the country for a time, similar to the GFS.

It's well in FI at this stage, but a dynamic enough system with potential to bring something stormy to Ireland for sure. There are a lot of dependencies for this in how it plays out, namely how any low that comes from the US side of the Atlantic interacts with the low pressure system south of Iceland and the position that main low has at the time.

Looking further ahead it's also worth noting at the end of their runs the ECM and GEM are showing another potent storm in the Atlantic but ridging high between it and Ireland. GFS shows it too and it moves to our North pushing down the high pressure, followed by another 2 low pressure systems right up to the end of its run. Models are still looking fairly volatile for the next while at least.

Meteorite58

GFS 18Z still knocking around the idea of some stormy weather around next Tues week at +174hrs . Very early but it did better than the ECM predicting the track of Storm Ciaran, days before in fact.

Meteorite58

GFS, ICON and UKMO all showing something from windy to stormy around Tues 14th

ACCESS-G nearby windy, ECM windy well south to N France.

The Multi Global model taking in the suite of models showing some windy weather for Ireland around Tues 14th but nothing extreme at this stage.

Could well be just a windy day but with the fired up Jet could become stormy also.

Meteorite58

The risk of strong winds or a storm for around next Tuesday increased I would think going by the latest output from the models.

ECM showing strong winds for the Southern half of the country.

GEM showing a Storm moving up over the country.

UKMO showing very windy or stormy Monday up the Western half of the country.

GFS strong winds or stormy just off the south of us moving into the SW UK.

ACCESS-G has energy near to Ireland but not impacting.

So as ever a wait and see how the models go with this over the coming days.

nacho libre

I have seen worse charts...

PokeHerKing

GFS has been looking blocky/interesting for mid/late November for a good while now.

Hopefully something actually comes of it!

nacho libre

A couple of weeks ago the UK Met office were hinting at the possibilities of something like this happening, they then dropped it. Of course as we all know it may not come to pass in the end.

nacho libre

Just for fun here is an even juicer chart:

Let the chase begin!

Gonzo

The chase has begun, the ECM and the GFS has been showing some nice charts but at the moment these are very much a minority option. The long term models are still suggesting a mild and Atlantic dominated December which is what we get almost every December year on year. However I have a feeling this winter may well offer more opportunities for us to tap into properly cold weather even if it's only for a short period. I have a feeling the second half of winter will offer the best opportunities for us to tap into something exciting and at this stage we are well overdue a properly cold and unstable spell of weather during mid winter, I just hope we are not left waiting chasing charts all the way into the second half of February for this to happen as more often than not, we finally get cold weather when it's that little bit too late.

As of now the CFS is showing mild Atlantic weather dominating throughout the winter right to the end of the February but this model seems to be on it's own with this scenario. The German model DWD shows a mild Atlantic December but blocking gets going in January and progresses into February which could offer us opportunities if it verified. Another model the CMCC is showing this winter with northern blocking and a negative NAO/AO progressing as we head through winter with January and especially February looking rather interesting. The ECCC model is yet another model showing a rather mild December but as we progress into January and February blocking is increased greatly with the jetstream forced south of the UK and Ireland with cold possibilities for us. The ECM long range is showing a fairly positive December with the Atlantic in charge for much of the month with low pressure over or near us much of the time. Just like the other models the ECM is showing a negative NAO pattern developing in January and persisting through February with high pressure over Greenland much of the time.

Quite a few models are now showing blocking between January and March with a southwards displaced jetstream which is fairly interesting for now. However as we are all know the long range models can be completely wrong and can update later with a very different scenario. For now they are looking most interesting if you want something colder for the second half of winter.

Another interesting long range forecast is the mean zonal winds. At the moment they are well above normal and the long range models are suggesting that the zonal winds will decrease fairly rapidly into the second half of December, perhaps suggesting that we will see an increase in blocking during the second half of winter and SSW possibilities either late December or sometime during January.

One final thing that I find interesting is we seem to be developing a tripole in the North Atlantic between South West Ireland/UK and over towards Newfoundland with sea surface temperatures cooling down in that band with much warmer sea surface temperatures north and south of this line. However this is not yet a classic tripole as the sea surface temperatures near Newfoundland are still on the warm side, would like to see this area close to Canada cool down more in the next few weeks to call it a proper tripole, so we should keep a close eye on this over the next few weeks to see if the Newfoundland area cools down more.

Plenty of interesting model watching to come in the next few weeks but all these long range models can change very quickly so for now the best thing to do is keep head on the shoulders and hope that the models continue to show what we want to see as we progress through December. For now I think we have another few weeks of relatively mild and Atlantic dominated weather to come and after that anything can happen.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121332240#Comment_121332240

This is storm Debi can't believe that, at the time was this the outlier ? Also its crazy as how fast this is developing as well but met eirrean obviously caught it as an advisory was issued ,I also think there on their toes incase of serious backlash

nacho libre

What goes up, must cause something else to come down. It's primed for lift off!

esposito

GFS 6z teasing us with a northerly in FI. Probably cold rain/sleet showers as not potent enough? I’m no expert but that’s my guess.

Gonzo

That Northerly would be mostly cold rain or sleet showers, not unstable enough and a glancing blow of cold. However right at the end of that GFS run we appear to be lining up possibly another go at it. Some very cold air digging into the mediterranean area by this point from eastern Europe.

As for us we are sandwiched between 2 very cold plunges of weather, one just to our north and the other to our south. I'll expect more teases to come over the following few weeks. I would like to see us hitting the jackpot sometime mid December to end of January, it's a bit early to expect any proper white gold until we get into December unless we get something truly exceptional like in November 2010.

nacho libre

Yes, probably too early for snow, unless it's something exceptional. I'd settle for a frosty and foggy period rather than cold rain and sleet. Hopefully if high pressure can sustain itself at higher latitudes we might profit down the line in terms of strat developments. The last thing we want to see is the two layers of the vortex coupling.

GFS hinting at a drier spell this time next week. Would be a welcome relief.

Gonzo

yep the GFS starting to show strong hints towards the weather finally settling down later next week and possibly beyond with high pressure and then a chilly glancing blow of northerlies after this which also lead to mostly dry weather for us with some seasonal late Autumn night time frosts. Scotland and Northern/Eastern England could get some wintry potential out of this but the northerlies as always don't really impact Ireland much with any instability always further east of us. Scandinavia and northern Europe looks to be heading into some properly wintry weather in the next few weeks.

pauldry

There could be another storm to the Northwest next Sunday before this but many models keep the low filled out, however the danger is there for a 120kph storm. Also for sure a lot of rain this coming weekend so once we get through that wer out of the woods for now. That is if any of the woods is left.

nacho libre

Some models showing some juicy charts, but the solution will probably be something less exciting, but at least most of the models seem to be showing it settling down. It's just a question of whether it's a temporary respite from all the unsettled weather before we go back to square one or if it's something more sustained.

.Donegal.

….

sryanbruen

..

Gonzo

Yes we have been here so many times before and it's always in the last few weeks of November or the weeks leading towards Christmas where the GFS continues to spit out what we want to see, takes it away and brings it back on the table a day later and this process goes on and on for several weeks and then bham reality hits that we are in a zonal flow for the majority of winter as we watch extreme cold kept at bay bottled up over Scandinavia or Greece! Sometimes the ECM isn't much better than the GFS in this regard either.

But maybe we will get lucky this winter at some point, all I ask for is at least 1 day of an unstable easterly, it doesn't have to be a 10 day event. We would all have our feet on the ground throughout the winter if we just looked at the Icon and no other models throughout the winter!

Rebelbrowser

Agreed, much better to look at the reliable CFS. I see this as in the bag of 13 December....

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121370984#Comment_121370984

1 day during peak winter is all we ask for weather gods, 1 day!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121371103#Comment_121371103

and we can't even get 1 day, we haven't had a proper snow day since March 17th 2018 and that wasn't even winter! Such is my utter frustration and disappointment with Irish winters since 2019.

Looks like the GFS is back showing the coldest and warmest options for it's operational runs and alternating between the 2 extremes from one run to the next. Getting back to reality the overall trend is to keep things relatively normal in terms of temperature and mostly zonal over the coming weeks, we may get some high pressure but it probably won't last too long. Things still look largely unsettled but nowhere near as wet as the 6 week late September to early November deluge. We could get a cold snap end of November but it will most likely be a glancing blow and very short lived for us.