FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

JCX BXC

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121272754#Comment_121272754

I'll tell ye next Monday!

Hooter23

Potential storms not showing up now until the start of november...we usually have to wait until december anyway before the atlantic becomes very stormy

Hooter23

We probably have a higher chance of getting a big freeze early this year november or december...since the heat lasted so long this year september into october so the cold could arrive early this year...its already starting to show cold starting to build to the north of us into november...the storms push it out of the way for now but that might not happen either by then

Meteorite58

From +120hrs Models showing it avg temp to more so cooler than average, no great mild interludes on the horizon, keeping to the gradual seasonal cooling down as the days get shorter.

Gonzo

Outlook looks very unsettled with wet to very wet charts trending from start to finish so no let up in the rain any time soon, it may also turn slightly cooler than normal towards end of October and into 1st week of November. Low pressures make a beeline for Ireland one after another over the next 2 weeks with no signs of the Atlantic onslaught stopping any time soon.

There may be a slight dryer trend right at the very end of the GFS run around 8th/9th of November but that is along way out.

Above precipitation is only a guide, these can swing widely from run to run.

As for the long term models they are mostly showing a wet Atlantic dominated November with temperatures around average to slightly milder.

Billcarson

I hope to god the current wet spell is not what is in store for us over the coming months. Really hope its not a washout winter.

nacho libre

I see the UKMO are still going with the idea( although they do mention it is a low risk)of it turning more settled later into November with Easterly winds taking hold. Even if it does happen we could be too far west for it to influence our weather

US3

No harm see a lot of rain fall now or November, the law of averages mean we will surly get a settled and cold spell in December 🤞

PokeHerKing

Yeah normally a crisp autumnal autumn means a miserable damp winter.

Let's hope this is the reverse and we get a nice crisp or dare i say it cold winter.

Gonzo

The current deluge pattern looks like it may continue for another few weeks, into the start of November at least. Hopefully something drier and colder for November with an easterly or north-easterly direction by then.

snowgal

hi all, can someone advise re weather/rain situation over the coming wend? involved in a puca event in Trim and wondering what to expect! thanks

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121282039#Comment_121282039

At the moment the weekend looks like there may be showers around but not a washout weekend that has plagued many weekends since early July. There may be a band of rain extending up across the country from Sunday afternoon.

Hooter23

Plenty of warm air still going up north....it should push some of that cold air up there down south...a less cold arctic would be a good thing if its too cold up there the cold air will stay locked up there...we might get storms at first but could freeze after that...a less cold arctic during winter could cause record cold in places further south

Billcarson

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121282589#Comment_121282589

The warmer Arctic - colder continents theory. That idea hasnt really worked as far as Europe is concerned anyway imo. Too much influence by high pressure from the South or big euro highs. I prefer the way it was decades ago with a colder Arctic ,more frequent cold spells.

Gonzo

The long range JMA models are predicting a mild and wet or very wet November, a mild December with the Atlantic still in charge for us but nothern blocking getting going quite a distance north of us so not a position to drag in cold air to us. The JMA has us in a westerly or south-westerly flow for most of November and December. For January which is as far as we can get to it is forcasting northern blocking to intensify with north-easterly winds moving a bit further south but again not in a position far south enough to influence Ireland. Scotland for example could tap into this but it does hint that colder air plunging south could happen but how far south remains to be seen as this is such a long way out. If the JMA was to verify we are in for a wet and mostly mild Atlantic dominated first half to winter which is what we get almost every single winter.

mcburns07

Thankfully none of these models ever verify!

Meteorite58

Models showing a chance of deep areas of Low Pressure moving near or over us as we move into November with the Jet Stream for the most part staying to the South.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z looks worse than it is, very windy on coasts with this one but a large flabby center keeping the strongest winds well away from the center, but only applies to this particular output, GFS would be stormy in comparison so will see where this goes.

There'll be sleet on the hills by around 7-10 November hopefully. And lower ground the week after, and by late November the first sneachta😊

dacogawa

Just leaving the ECM & GFS here to have a look back on next Thursday...

adocholiday

A closer look at the potential impacts from both suggests it looks worse than it is because the worst of the winds stay to our South. If these lows take a more northerly approach then this could upgrade significantly. ECM currently showing a windy scenario for the coasts with orange and localised red level gusts for coastal parts of Cork, Kerry and Galway. South and South East coastal areas seeing high-end yellow to orange warnings in places. The GFS is showing a less windy but more wet scenario than ECM.

However a zoomed out look at the winds shows the southerly position of these systems. We don't want them trending northwards in the next few days:

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z showing Storm potential for Ireland Weds into Thurs next week with high rainfall.

GFS showing Storm potential but down in the bay of Biscay.

GEM Storm potential Weds /Thurs , very windy but core of the winds off the South ....but just.

ICON Storm potential but into France.

ACCESS-G Storm potential but mainly into France with strong winds over Ireland.

UKMO Storm potential into France , some strong winds over Ireland.

So certainly chance of a storm next week but models mainly showing most of the energy going into France /Biscay/ English Channel.

ECM has held its track more or less over the last two runs , before that it was far more South but as can be seen all this energy being whipped up along the Jet so a lot of uncertainty for some time to come on exact track and strengths. ECM showing the storm deepening rapidly as it moves in over Ireland and getting down to 945hpa but on average this would surely rise. Very tight isobars on this one . Another very deep low following the weekend but currently not showing as strong. Plenty of model watching over the coming days with models coming out an hour earlier! Have a feeling it is going to be very wet with the potential for bringing flooding problems.

A cool outlook from the ECM in general. Looks very unsettled from midweek, starting to see high rainfall totals again.

nacho libre

Looking further ahead this chart, if it came to pass, could be something similar to what the UKMO long range was hinting at for later in November.

nacho libre

Anyone for a Northerly?

Dazler97

Any more about this storm on Thursday??

munsterlegend

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121301742#Comment_121301742

There is a specific thread now open for it. At the moment rain the main threat to Southern counties but subject to change.

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121301751#Comment_121301751

Thank you 😊

JanuarySnowstor

Breaking news, the gfs and arpege nudge the system North!! Storm force winds across the Southern half of Country and the East. Look at that blob of red intense rainfall across the Southwest!

Hooter23

Tropical air colliding with extremely cold artic air as far north as Scotland out in the atlantic in 10 days time..seems to be alot more tropical air than normal it takes up half the atlantic... who knows what kind of weather we could get by then...

nacho libre

Well it looks like it will settle down, at least briefly, sometime next week. There is a chance of something colder and more sustained, but with a bit of the pv hovering around over Canada I wouldn't be confident of anything longer. It could well just be a brief respite from the unsettled weather. I think we can all agree that some crisp day would be good for a bit