FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

pauldry

If I keep saying the charts are meh will we get an all out blizzard? They've changed quite a deal since I said that. Maybe they are all having the Christmas pints early so every run is a pub run. An Easterly will at worst bring a 6c 2c max min here and likely something like that. Though could also go deeper and go nearer 0c. It's been a funny, if wet year. Will probably be too much of a breeze for -5c type temperatures bar the Midlands.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401702#Comment_121401702

Oh the frog has appeared. It's ON.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401739#Comment_121401739

Apologies. You are right. I remember the River Shannon hinterland experiencing record flooding alright.

ECM looking good out to 144hrs

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401444#Comment_121401444

I think the CFS ages ago was indicating some sort of blocking for around the end of November. You know something might be afoot- a foot of snow!(if only) when Sryan gets giddy about charts:). If it does come to pass it reminds me of the summer bust- only in reverse- when all the background signals pointed to a prolonged dry period and we ended up with a washout July . Could December prove to be the opposite of that?

PokeHerKing

I presumed JS post had torpedoed our chances but the 12zs are stellar again.

Wonder if lidl have any of their Ski gear left🥶

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121401753#Comment_121401753

If Elmer Blooker starts getting even a tad excited then I will know it’s on. Come on Elmer what are your thoughts? 😁

Gonzo

I think we should all keep our feet on the ground for now, we have been here before were everything is suddenly getting very exciting and then the rug is pulled from under us but for now certainly all signs are that the Atlantic is going into hibernation for some time to come after been very active throughout the summer and the autumn up to this point. The Atlantic has shut down very quickly almost out of nowhere.

Artane2002

Just reposting Tamara's post from Netweather, I think this is noteworthy because I've never seen her being this optimistic about cold weather.

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'My own take, given last night, and following up from a suggestion last week, explained how this weeks mid latitude Atlantic ridging was anticipated. I then expressed doubts about that regime's longevity at the expense of greater sub tropical flow. Tropical forcing now shows clearly increasing amplitude heading eastwards across I/O and renewed WWB's reversing the lull in momentum this week which led to the mid Atlantic ridge. This is important, because angular momentum tendency soaring heading into December, tied into seasonal wavelength changes and increasingly unstable tropopause boundary is ripe for high impact weather across Europe into December. That mid latitude ridging is set to become a road block to the polar jet as it becomes a higher latitude feature with undercutting jet flow.

The expectation of renewed sub tropical flow was sooner than modelled up to today. What has been surprising today has been the even greater speed of return of that sub tropical flow. The suggestion of that stark thermal boundary in last nights post c/o a growing -ve NAO profile is being brought forward and provides great interest (of different kinds) for UK/NW Europe and for me down here in SW Europe.

Confidence of undercut of blocking is exponentially increasing - though still a lot of detail to sort out. As stated just now, December has potential for high impact weather as cold air advection meets warm moist sub tropical Atlantic air. For all those of you in UK/NW Europe, I would look in the modelling in the extended period for lows to keep sliding along this boundary and bumping into increasingly cold air feeding in from the north and east.'

John.Icy

Charts are looking great. Only a few days off from getting going and all. Synoptics outweighing the depth of the cold for now but early days.

Is @BLIZZARD7 defrosting (or re-frosting) yet? It's not a chase without him.

pad199207

Have came off the fence but still holding on just in case for this….

BLIZZARD7

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121402201#Comment_121402201

I am here watching and onboard! This looks very good and seems to keep upgrading… plenty of cold air to the North east, and coming into the best time of year for it. -10c 850hpa temps not needed for snow but we have a way to go before looking at such detail.

We could be looking at an extended and notable cold spell if synoptics keep developing like this. I’ve also never seen Tamara quoted above ^ so optimistic about cold chances.

Also keeping an eye on that Canadian warming brewing in the background 👀

squarecircles

Everyone is having little secret weather porn dreams before bedtime reading the netweather forum since 2 days ago, but publicly everyone is sticking to that misery guts irish pessimism on here,to lessen the blow when and if it all goes down the shitter.

SleetAndSnow

I'm just about on the verge of excitement, but I'm waiting until tomorrow's 6zs at the earliest 🥶🥶🥶🥶

torres9kop

I love tuning in here over the winter months. Great analysis from lots of ye on here. Keep up the good work.

pauldry

There's absolutely no point in trying to guess yet but some nice charts for starters. Britain will definitely see some wintriness. We will have to "wait and see" close to the time.

Mid to high single figure temperatures very likely from this weekend and orfrost at night. That's not far away at all. Sunday is 9 to 11c but cold reloads next week.

Max temperature (around 14c was it) for November has passed.

sparrowcar

Ahh that time of the year again when the ignore button goes into overdrive due to the amount of tramps that turn up.

Bit of frost and ice this weekend in Dublin for a soft start 🙂

Kermit.de.frog

I'm going start tracking this more closely from tomorrow evening. It is looking interesting and definitely turning a good bit colder from Monday onward but it's the depth and extent of the cold that is up for grabs here. There is a gap to be bridged if it's to be an impactful cold period eventually (a couple of C° really). It's pretty obvious we are going to get an easterly or north easterly element at this stage and there is a wide range of outcomes with that to be explored over the next few days. I'm keep the feet firmly rooted to the ground for now.

icesnowfrost

Can I just say it’s great to back, love this time of year.

i see the GFS is drunk again but I like this behavior as it gets the excitement up. Still I’ll take it with some caution and won’t be dusting off the sledge just yet.

US3

Can someone share the porn please havnt seen a chart all day just opinions

WolfeEire

There is a low coming out of Newfoundland that will dictate matters beyond this weekend. Should it continue as tracked for this weekend on tonight's gfs, it will serve to disrupt real cold from becoming quickly established over Ireland the UK early next week. The ensembles would suggest that the GFS op run was somewhat of an outlier regarding how the low tracks over us, becomes less deep and is slow to move on.

Would expect to see changes overnight in terms of what happens to that low later this weekend. It could sink further south (rather than stall and dissipate slowly over Ireland/Britain) owing to some fairly impressive heights building over Scandinavia. The pressure charts looking impressive at first glance but these little features can disrupt matters.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121403250#Comment_121403250

That's very true. Just as this potential cold spell seemingly came out of nowhere it could vanish just as easily.

With this in mind everything can seemingly be neatly falling into place only for a dreaded shortwave to scupper things. As you mention, though, with the strong heights to the North East , hopefully it will be forced to slide. If it doesn't, then let's hope it proves to be a temporary delay to proper cold heading our way. I am nervous about looking at the charts later on today.

PokeHerKing

0z looking pretty similar, shortwave slides but its precarious enough.

Would that be comsidered a polar low to kick off December?

nacho libre

Shortwave drama galore and a possible wind event too on the UKMO. With a low sitting out west the cold air will likely be cut off and milder air win out. Let's hope these shortwaves can be modelled further south, we could be in for a decent frontal snow event then. If the poster Tamara is right about cold boundaries going forward, let's hope the milder side is a 100 miles off the south coast.

pureza

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121403506#Comment_121403506

I find Tamara rich on technical jargon and high on the hope casting level

Not my go to for balanced analysis but an obvious draw for coldies

I'm definitely welcoming the quieter Atlantic period coming

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121403526#Comment_121403526

To be honest I find it hard to follow her posts.

It's funny though she says is not a cold fan. Met4Cast is a good poster for balanced analysis over there. It will be good to see the land dry out a bit, it's badly needed

pauldry

X is full of the charts with deep cold. So far nothing exciting for this side of the country. Still showing days that will be 6c and nights 2c. Quite normal before climate change made 13c days and 9c nights normal.

ltdslipdiff

Great to be back on the Sneachta roller coaster. Is Graces7 with us?

pauldry

Ya good to have one before Xmas. At the moment we are on the up part of the roller coaster.

Highs and mild nearly always win. Will this year buck the trend?

sideswipe

Perhaps a thread is needed as this is the chart thread? Or is there a general winter chat thread?

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121405130#Comment_121405130

Not sure now is the right time to open a thread about this. Still a bit early IMO.

The autumn thread is probably the best place to discuss this (with no charts) as it’s still technically Autumn.

Just my opinion. Feel free to open one if you wish.