FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193200#Comment_121193200

Here's a blast from the past, a classic swing in temperature or conditions in the heart of winter. Huge northerly blast giving tons of snow down the country including 38cm at Malin Head. We don't get anything like those no more. Arctic just too warm now.

Over a week later.. long fetched southerly winds from the Canaries. Think Ireland just about avoided the exceptional nature of it though. The highest max I know of here was 14.4C whilst the UK got to 18.3C, the equal January record.

giveitholly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193526#Comment_121193526

If that happened today it would be blamed on climate change

compsys

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193775#Comment_121193775

Back in the 1950s when Ireland experienced record temperatures it was relatively isolated. And over a short time.

The difference is that now it's so widespread and countries all over the world are experiencing record temps at the same time. For weeks on end in some places.

A perfect example is the record breaking summer of 1976. Ireland and the UK were pretty much the only countries in the world that experienced exceptional temperatures that summer.

This June we'd a record breaking June - along with scores of countries all over the world.

Also, the world has been getting gradually warmer for the past 100 years - it's only that it's gone mental in the past 20 years. So maybe they'd have been correct to 'blame' global warming back then...

Gonzo

Next Wednesday we begin to lose the warmth that will be in place from this Friday with +12 to +15 uppers still hanging on in the early morning.

Fast forward 2 days or so and we have -6 uppers into the country, that's a serious drop in such a short time frame!

Midday temperatures down to mid single digits in places by Friday. Enough to cause precipitation to turn wintry over high ground.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121193526#Comment_121193526

Reading that post saddens me, that we probably will never get a northerly like that again.

yagan

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121195174#Comment_121195174

We didn't get one for decades until 2009 and 2010. The first few days were fun, but a month of it was cruel.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121195200#Comment_121195200

No that's a different setup to December\January 2009-2010 and December 2010. That 1958 setup is a directly sourced northerly with no north easterly component. And not a meteorological setup that would last a month.

sryanbruen

Yep 2009-10 and 2010 were the result of persistent cold, slack airflows from the northeast for many days with snow cover helping as an insulator allowing any heat to be radiated back into space leading to intense cooling in the air. The 1958 northerly blast was the result of severely cold, unstable air (-11C) straight from the arctic at an ideal time of year along with a much colder arctic compared to now. Think of it like a "beast from the east" but from the north instead. Extremely cold for a short period of time (though a northerly will never be as cold with a longer sea track compared to a continental easterly) but as it crosses the relatively warm seas, the convection just builds and builds into huge cumulonimbus towers letting out masses of white powder.

I just don't see northerlies anymore being that conducive to severe cold without a slack flow. There's just too much mixing and too much warm residue in the oceans. Easterlies can still have a bite but getting harder for those too.

Anyway, that GFS 12z wasn't totally on its own as an outlier but was on the colder end as you'd expect. It showed a significant snow event over Wales and the west Midlands in England. I hope to God this isn't the start of another winter where the GFS goes haywire after having a decent summer. Its verification jumped off a cliff especially in February.

Elmer Blooker

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121195219#Comment_121195219

The 1958 heavy snowfall was definitely caused by a Polar Low, the famous April 1917 snowstorm was also definitely a polar low which badly affected Connaught, the eastern half of the country got little from the reports I’ve read.

Another polar low I’ve read about was in February 1969 which ran down the eastern side of Scotland and England from Shetland down to Kent.

zisdead

From 24 C to 7c , Has Dublin become Denver ? 🙃

newholland mad

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121194949#Comment_121194949

What's rainfall looking like after Wednesday?

Gonzo

The cold spell later next week still looks on track which could be a huge shock to the system after the big lift up in temperatures this weekend and into the early part of next week.

On this particular run the GFS is showing daytime temperatures no higher than 2 to 5C in some midland areas.

As for rainfall looks alot more unsettled from Wednesday onwards with plenty of rain across western and northern areas but all areas seeing more rainfall which could turn wintry at times across hills and mountains by next weekend.

It's worth nothing that the GFS 00z is on the colder end of the spectrum but all runs show a massive drop off in temperature from much warmer than normal to much cooler than normal over a very short time frame.

esposito

The above very American style in terms of massive temperature fluctuations.

I wonder will this become more common with climate change in full swing.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121195174#Comment_121195174

We had one after Christmas in 2000,but you are right they are becoming rare these days due to the warming Arctic. The GFS is probably overdoing it with those low temperatures for the weekend after next.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121198089#Comment_121198089

That was a cracker for the northern half of the country.

Elmer Blooker

I’m having my doubts that this expected cold spell will even happen at all.

Scotland looks cold but that’s about it … all FI of course so we'll have to wait.

pauldry

Ya more likely the cold won't happen than the warm WILL happen nowadays. Probably a 2 day shock then back to 12 to 14c average again.

.Donegal.

Tomorrow week.

7c in the NW. 17c in the SE.

naughto

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121199548#Comment_121199548

Now where talking

sryanbruen

Cue the "if only it were winter". Pure fantasy land and that's where it will remain all winter.

nacho libre

Another warm up from the ECM this evening. Which model has it right?

bazlers

I wouldnt say all winter..might be some surprises to come.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121225277#Comment_121225277

Probably one last warm reload and a late 20c.

This winter has been so written off it'll probably surprise.

Gonzo

A big change in the weather has occurred over the past day or so, we have lost the very warm temperatures for the time of year and are now in a much more seasonal and cool setup. Things are about to get cooler, especially at night as the cold air from the north digs further south into Europe over the next few days. Very little rainfall is expected over the next while as high pressure may become centered over us yet again, but this time it will be a cold ridge.

Chilly northerly winds over the weekend easing as heights begin to rise. Cold night time temperatures getting to 0c in places.

Winds next week may go easterly or south-easterly as the high tries to make a move towards Scandinavia.

Feeling fairly chilly at this point with raw easterly winds.

We finish up at +384 hours with winds still in from an easterly direction. IF these charts were to happen late November to December i'd be very excited but it's only October, but interesting that we are seeing charts like this well before winter begins.

Current guidance suggest not much rain over the coming 2 weeks with some parts of the country, particularly northern half of the country staying almost completely dry, lots of time for this to change but for now it looks like the Atlantic may be blocked off for some time to come.

nacho libre

It's such a tease. We all know the vortex of doom will be back home to Greenland just in time for winter proper. Still it will be nice to have some bright crisp days to enjoy for a while. As a bonus It might also mean I don't have to cut the grass again this year.

adocholiday

Next Wednesday/Thursday looking pretty wet for some parts, ECM has orange level accumulation for the SW and GFS has orange level accumulation for Dublin/Wicklow.

May not come to pass but there's been a lot of talk about a bit of a dry spell coming up and this is going against that now.

adocholiday

This mornings runs pushing it back a bit but still showing up. GFS wants to wash Youghal away with 100mm+ on Thursday but I imagine that will downgrade. ECM still showing orange for the South but on Friday instead of Thursday. Of course it's FI still so this could all change, but worth keeping an eye on the charts over the next few days.

sryanbruen

GFS 06z said feck it let's put all the options on the table with a proper easterly followed by a 935mb low.

Sammy2012

That better not happen!! Its marathon weekend. ☺️

Dazler97

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/121236682#Comment_121236682

Omg that's red warnings all over In terms of wind if only that was 4 weeks delayed it would be sortive like November 2010 ,of course it may not happen at all this far out but sometimes the out lier in the right outcome