FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Summer2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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I was about to say that the threat of windy weather on Sat/ Sun has receded and then the GFS posts a fairly windy run with a deepening Lp track over the Northern part of Ireland giving some tight gradients and heavy rainfall on Sat but the ECMWF shows a more benign Lp track well South of Ireland with a lot less rainfall.
UKMO not as deep also and a slack enough gradient with a bit more rainfall over the S of the country. Uncertainty surrounds this, could be nothing or something a bit more unseasonable.
ICON showing it to be a fairly strong event at this stage. Will see over the next couple of days what unfolds.
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The 12z models are rolling out and looks like there is some warmth on the way next week but at the moment it is looking like not much more than a 1 to 2 day affair. The UK may get 3 days of hot weather out of this but even for them this looks like not lasting all that long before the Atlantic is back in charge.
Warmer air up from the south arrives by Thursday but already there is a deep area of low pressure just to our west with our name on it.
Temperatures up to 25C are possible under this briefly warm setup
By Friday it's all over for us with low pressure and plenty of rain moving in from the west while England and Wales go very hot.
Temperatures for us on Friday high teens at best and lower under the band of rain crossing the country.
After this we stay under an Atlantic influence with temperatures more or less similar to what we have right now, maybe a touch warmer during sunshine.
This is still 6 days away so plenty of time for upgrades or downgrades. This may get flattened off before even getting a chance at a 1 day wonder for Ireland or we could get lucky and get an extra day or 2 than what is shown above.
The GEM is very similar, the warmth arrives Wednesday night giving us a warm day on Thursday.
Icon is running a day earlier with the warmth, brings it to us on Wednesday and it's all over by Thursdsay.
By Friday we are under a deep area of low pressure with plenty of rain and cooler temperatures, very similar to the current setup.
So for now it looks on a bit of a knifesedge with maybe 1 day of warmth and sunshine for Ireland before going back into an unsettled Atlantic pattern, this may get upgraded or it could get downgraded to nothing over the next few days. Just don't be expecting a prolonged spell of warm and settled weather, this looks very brief indeed.
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a bit of a heat spike this week, first one this summer. Of course with the ground so wet, this will limit the temperature potential by a few degrees compared to if the ground was completely dry.
This will be a short lived 1 to 2 day wonder like most heat spikes but as short lived as it is, a very welcome change for 2 days of summer to come back before we get back on the saddle of the form horse.
Low to mid twenties possible on Wednesday and Thursday before the warmth is swept away by Friday.
If the soaking washout summer did not happen I reckon we could have had a few extra degrees on these temperatures into the upper 20s perhaps but with saturated soils this is just not possible.
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Tonights GFS pub run while nothing out of the ordinary, the ensembles overall have definitely shifted towards a warming trend with a few runs going very warm to hot indeed for the third week of August, will be interesting to see if the model builds on this tomorrow.
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The 6z is rolling out and is likely a hot outlier, showing mid to upper 20s possible for Ireland 3th week of August.
If this verifies it would live up to my wishes several weeks ago about a book ended summer with this being the warmest spell of the year potentially. Looks fairly volatile too so it wouldn't be completely dry and settled. Please make this happen.
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and the 6z ensemble run is more or less completed, another big shift towards notable warmth or heat around the 3th week of August with temperatures possibly lifting up and taking off. The 6z operational while in the warmest end of the range, isn't a total outlier, some runs go even hotter with one getting upper air temperatures approaching +20C into Irish airspace.
As for London things are really starting to look like a melting pot there with many runs going to +20 or above. Plenty of interesting model watching in the days ahead after the 6 week snorefest.
For eastern areas looks like not much in the way of rain over the next 2 weeks, possibly less than 10mm in places. Of course if thunderstorms get going at some point expect alot more rain than what is shown here.
As is usual with the GFS add on an extra 2 or 3C to above values as GFS always underplays the temperature by a few degrees during the summer.
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Not to put a downer on things but as far as I can see without looking at medium-range models, there is little compelling evidence to suggest (from the usual drivers I look at) a big build of pressure that would be conducive to Ireland settling down and warming up with a good amount of sunshine. Greenland high looks to continue lurking around which will make it difficult for high pressure to build from the south for a significant period of time. I wouldn't get your hopes up. The most I can see is similar to what we just had which is pressure building from the south as an attempt of settling down with sunny spells developing for some lucky places but low cloud and fog for some others which quickly gets shunted eastward by Atlantic lows forced southward via the Greenland block.
The only perhaps somewhat saving grace is pressure is rising over Scandi this time but as long as that Greenland high is there, I don't see much changing personally...
This is highlighted by the EC regimes forecast with the majority on the side of -NAO out to month's end. Most veering towards a Scandinavian high (BL+) which I mentioned could allow high pressure to influence the weather for some of the country longer than if the Scandi low was still there from the start of this month and much of July.
Guarantee this Greenland high will be nowhere seen by the time December 1st comes around.
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