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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Getting Into the mid to high teen range in places but onshore areas might still be a bit cooler but good improvement in general after the cool spell recently. Rainfall totals look light enough in general. No winds of note showing up out to 10 days either.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    Certainly we will notice a big increase in temperatures by Friday evening. High teens on Friday and into Saturday, more like mid teens from Sunday which is still much milder than the current chilly pattern which comes to an end tomorrow. Weekend looks unsettled with showers but the warmth should make up for it. Next week things may settle down for a few days but the GFS keeps things a bit more unsettled and is already playing around with another unsettled and chilly spell beginning next weekend but that's along way off with a good deal of uncertainty.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,223 ✭✭✭Dazler97

    Is there a summer thread

  • Registered Users Posts: 10,046 ✭✭✭✭Oscar Bravo

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,223 ✭✭✭Dazler97

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    Summer is 3 weeks away so the summer threads will appear by 1st June.

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,223 ✭✭✭Dazler97

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,488 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen

    There is promise aloft that "summer" will finally get its act together properly and not just a one-day wonder like 16th April was. Drivers support numerous builds of high pressure through the second half of May 2023 from the Azores with the best chance towards month's end of a proper extension that would be conducive to warm conditions. We look to have lost any remnant effects of the major SSW from back in February with the NAO expected to remain in a positive state for the foreseeable future which is good for warm prospects combined with well above average sea surface temperatures nearby especially to our south and southwest.

    The start of the coming week will be on the relatively cool side though thankfully nothing like the atrocious NE'ly mess some models were showing the possibility of in the recent week. We should see a warming trend through the week as high pressure ridges in more to the country rather than being out in the Atlantic.

    This latest ECM for next Saturday is classic stuff, a nice 1030mb ridge extension from the Azores right over the top of the country would give temperatures into the low 20s on a widespread scale and likely bags of sunshine. This is best case scenario and I think it's a tad on the optimistic side. I suspect we won't see as extensive and intense a ridge as this especially that quick. Don't be surprised to see this being paid back a touch I'd say in some following runs but nonetheless, the emphasis is on a warming trend after we get the early part of the coming working week out of the way and most likely relatively dry but always the threat of weak fronts or light showers given this is Ireland. Don't get the sun loungers out quite yet, hang on in there. Surely after this long changeable drawn out spring, there's some summery surprises out there waiting.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,842 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762

    I just had a quick look at the GFS this morning and it seemed like there was HP near, or closeby for a while. This is good, as even if it doesn't verify completely its nudging out any of the annoying low pressure and jetstream dips that were there.

    This will continue until at least the 6th of June in my opinion as its study time for the Leaving Cert.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,859 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Ya I think this HP domination is going to last a good while. As Joanna said on radio 1 once HP comes it stays around. I'd expect a good end to May and perhaps more heat in June. Wel wait and see.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 282 ✭✭eon1208

    Hi Sryan

    How does the high look at this stage for the next 8 to 10 days. Appreciate your analysis as always..

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    It's been quite a while since I posted an update in this thread so time for an update. Spring has been relatively wet for the most part however this month has seen a slowly improving situation on that. There hasn't been much in the way of warm weather this Spring despite each month being milder than average, this is somewhat to do with the mild night time temperatures we've had throughout Spring rather than the daytime temperatures.

    All the short term models as well as the mid to long range models are showing a definite drying trend over the next few weeks and into the first half of June. There is also a signal for improving temperatures with a definite warming trend into the final week of May and possibly beyond.

    High pressure should dominate our weather over the next few weeks but it remains to be seen how warm it will get, how long will the dry weather last and if there will be decent sunshine. For now things look dryer but not completely dry as we will have some rain and drizzle this weekend.

    The GFS 12z gets the high pressure sitting right over us from mid week with temperatures reaching high teens in places.

    By next weekend the high should be dominant sitting right over us.

    Temperatures could reach low 20s in the western half of the country with eastern areas cooler due to sea breezes.

    As we push into the final week of May the high could remain in control but we may begin to drag in an easterly which could make it feel chilly in parts of Leinster but very warm in the west and north-west. Temperatures of 14 to 20C in Leinster and 20 to 24C possible in western areas under this kind of setup.

    On this particular run low pressure from the Netherlands/France/England may begin to influence our weather which could turn things considerably cooler especially across eastern areas. However this is far out in the depths of FI and probably won't verify.

    Not all the model runs bring in this low from the east, quite a few of them keep the high pressure anchored over us so plenty of question marks to how long this high pressure will last. One thing is certain and that is we are going into a relatively calm spell of settled weather. It should feel pleasant for the most part with temperatures a little above average but nothing too warm on the horizon.

    This mornings GFS ensemble run shows a largely dry scene over the next 2 weeks with only trace amounts of rain here and there and temperatures staying above average throughout the run. This is the driest run I've seen in a long time.

    Rough 2 to 10mm of rainfall over the next 2 weeks, plenty of opportunities to do gardening and outdoor activities.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    GFS was leading the way projecting the warmest temps but the ECM has been showing improving charts over the last few days and has now overtaken the GFS showing summer warmth on the way, first from a large area of HP from the Azores building and centering over Ireland by the end of the week and then goes on to show the HP drift in over Europe sending warmer continental air our way the following week, this air will get moderated some bit no doubt but currently showing temps getting into the low 20's in places around the weekend and then getting up to between the low 20's to the mid 20's for large parts of Ireland

    Rainfall amounts very low which might be a concern after the first cut of silage and to bring along the cereals.

    Must be noted that the ECM is a good 5 to 8C higher than the GFS after next weekend, even a few degrees higher over the weekend also. Will see over the next few runs if a clearer trend forms.

    UKMO also getting into the low 20's over the weekend.

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,859 ✭✭✭pauldry

    GFS latest run pulls a cold Northerly down over us next weekend so instead of previous 24c that was promised it will be 12c to 15c.

  • Registered Users Posts: 7,109 ✭✭✭pad199207

    You can keep the 12-15°c. We will keep the 20’s down here cheers

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    The GFS 6z while not an outlier has only a few members supporting the cold next weekend while most of the model runs keep us on the warmer side next weekend. All to play for yet. In terms of rainfall there is basically no rain on the ensemble run until 1st week of June and even then only trace amounts of rainfall.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    It gets better.

    The Hp more anchored close to Ireland and very similar now from both the ECM and GFS. Pleasant weather, Western counties might favour the warmest temperatures but large parts of the country getting over 20C , extremely low rainfall, light winds in the main, might be a little bit breezy along coasts at times but nothing much. GEM has Hp near by, different location but benefitting from warm temperatures.

    ECM showing temperatures low to mid 20's next week, GFS a bit lower but getting into the low 20'S, GEM up to the mid 20's so good model agreement.

  • Registered Users Posts: 5,842 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762

    It seems to be sticking around and pushing the jetstream well north. If there is rain, it'll only be patchy and a new part of the high will establish quickly.

    What did I say about Leaving Cert weather???😁

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,859 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Itl last till after the Bank Holiday all the while cooler in Northwestern parts around 15 to 18c here into the 20s widely other places.

    There are very slight signs that after this it will be cool and unsettled for a while. I don't think this will be a hot Summer but just a hunch as it's too soon to even know.

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    ECM showing temperatures from the low to mid 20's at the second half of next week with a slack flabby area of LP to the S of us around Biscay / Spain and Hp to the N. Long way off but showing high Theta E readings and high Dp's so possibly introducing instability coming up from the S into the warmer airs over Ireland and the increased surface temperatures all possibly contributing to T- Storms. An interest to see if convection is possible at the end if next week....along with the good warm summery weather of course😀

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 16,692 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo

    It's nearly time to close this thread and open the Summer Fi Thread so one final Spring related post. The coming week looks mostly dry if not completely dry. Temperatures will range from slightly cooler than normal across eastern and southern coastal regions to warmer than normal across the midlands, west and north-west. Eastern regions generally 13 to 20C over the coming week with western regions 18 to 22C. It will feel particularly chilly along eastern and southern beaches from Sunday to about Tuesday/Wednesday. From mid week temperatures will warm up generally and the temperatures in eastern and southern coastal areas should recover to typical values for the time of year if we can get rid of the affect of the onshore easterly winds.

    After next weekend there is a great deal of uncertainty in keeping it mild/warm and relatively dry vs a significant push of much cooler air from the north-east which has the possibility of leading us into a chilly start to June. The GFS 00z and the latest ECM extended charts are going for a significant drop in temperatures for opening 10 days of June with chilly north-east winds and turning more unsettled.

    The GFS 6z is having none of it and keeping us warm and relatively dry into June, however there is a more unsettled trend appearing for June in general towards the end of the first week. This uncertainty about the 1st week of June and beyond should be covered in the opening post of the summer FI thread in a few days, by then hopefully things will be clearer.

    Make the most of the relatively dry weather over the next 10 days because it may not last and enjoy the relatively mild to warm temperatures (away from breezy coastal areas).

  • Registered Users Posts: 6,859 ✭✭✭pauldry

    Yes after this spell it will be a considerable length of time before we see another prolonged dry spell. We will likely be looking back saying the best weather was that week (next week).

    Though June will probably have some sunny warm days there will be a lot of cool wet days too. No 30c this June for sure.

  • Registered Users Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭mcburns07

  • Registered Users Posts: 606 ✭✭✭RedPeppers

    Surely your jumping thr gun there. Anything after 10 days or even less is complete guesswork

  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 11,799 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58

    Mod Note: Have opened a new Summer FI charts discussion as +120hrs is now in June.

    Might just close this discussion for a few days so the other thread will get established, thanks.

This discussion has been closed.