FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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Getting Into the mid to high teen range in places but onshore areas might still be a bit cooler but good improvement in general after the cool spell recently. Rainfall totals look light enough in general. No winds of note showing up out to 10 days either.
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Certainly we will notice a big increase in temperatures by Friday evening. High teens on Friday and into Saturday, more like mid teens from Sunday which is still much milder than the current chilly pattern which comes to an end tomorrow. Weekend looks unsettled with showers but the warmth should make up for it. Next week things may settle down for a few days but the GFS keeps things a bit more unsettled and is already playing around with another unsettled and chilly spell beginning next weekend but that's along way off with a good deal of uncertainty.
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There is promise aloft that "summer" will finally get its act together properly and not just a one-day wonder like 16th April was. Drivers support numerous builds of high pressure through the second half of May 2023 from the Azores with the best chance towards month's end of a proper extension that would be conducive to warm conditions. We look to have lost any remnant effects of the major SSW from back in February with the NAO expected to remain in a positive state for the foreseeable future which is good for warm prospects combined with well above average sea surface temperatures nearby especially to our south and southwest.
The start of the coming week will be on the relatively cool side though thankfully nothing like the atrocious NE'ly mess some models were showing the possibility of in the recent week. We should see a warming trend through the week as high pressure ridges in more to the country rather than being out in the Atlantic.
This latest ECM for next Saturday is classic stuff, a nice 1030mb ridge extension from the Azores right over the top of the country would give temperatures into the low 20s on a widespread scale and likely bags of sunshine. This is best case scenario and I think it's a tad on the optimistic side. I suspect we won't see as extensive and intense a ridge as this especially that quick. Don't be surprised to see this being paid back a touch I'd say in some following runs but nonetheless, the emphasis is on a warming trend after we get the early part of the coming working week out of the way and most likely relatively dry but always the threat of weak fronts or light showers given this is Ireland. Don't get the sun loungers out quite yet, hang on in there. Surely after this long changeable drawn out spring, there's some summery surprises out there waiting.
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It's been quite a while since I posted an update in this thread so time for an update. Spring has been relatively wet for the most part however this month has seen a slowly improving situation on that. There hasn't been much in the way of warm weather this Spring despite each month being milder than average, this is somewhat to do with the mild night time temperatures we've had throughout Spring rather than the daytime temperatures.
All the short term models as well as the mid to long range models are showing a definite drying trend over the next few weeks and into the first half of June. There is also a signal for improving temperatures with a definite warming trend into the final week of May and possibly beyond.
High pressure should dominate our weather over the next few weeks but it remains to be seen how warm it will get, how long will the dry weather last and if there will be decent sunshine. For now things look dryer but not completely dry as we will have some rain and drizzle this weekend.
The GFS 12z gets the high pressure sitting right over us from mid week with temperatures reaching high teens in places.
By next weekend the high should be dominant sitting right over us.
Temperatures could reach low 20s in the western half of the country with eastern areas cooler due to sea breezes.
As we push into the final week of May the high could remain in control but we may begin to drag in an easterly which could make it feel chilly in parts of Leinster but very warm in the west and north-west. Temperatures of 14 to 20C in Leinster and 20 to 24C possible in western areas under this kind of setup.
On this particular run low pressure from the Netherlands/France/England may begin to influence our weather which could turn things considerably cooler especially across eastern areas. However this is far out in the depths of FI and probably won't verify.
Not all the model runs bring in this low from the east, quite a few of them keep the high pressure anchored over us so plenty of question marks to how long this high pressure will last. One thing is certain and that is we are going into a relatively calm spell of settled weather. It should feel pleasant for the most part with temperatures a little above average but nothing too warm on the horizon.
This mornings GFS ensemble run shows a largely dry scene over the next 2 weeks with only trace amounts of rain here and there and temperatures staying above average throughout the run. This is the driest run I've seen in a long time.
Rough 2 to 10mm of rainfall over the next 2 weeks, plenty of opportunities to do gardening and outdoor activities.
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GFS was leading the way projecting the warmest temps but the ECM has been showing improving charts over the last few days and has now overtaken the GFS showing summer warmth on the way, first from a large area of HP from the Azores building and centering over Ireland by the end of the week and then goes on to show the HP drift in over Europe sending warmer continental air our way the following week, this air will get moderated some bit no doubt but currently showing temps getting into the low 20's in places around the weekend and then getting up to between the low 20's to the mid 20's for large parts of Ireland
Rainfall amounts very low which might be a concern after the first cut of silage and to bring along the cereals.
Must be noted that the ECM is a good 5 to 8C higher than the GFS after next weekend, even a few degrees higher over the weekend also. Will see over the next few runs if a clearer trend forms.
UKMO also getting into the low 20's over the weekend.
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It gets better.
The Hp more anchored close to Ireland and very similar now from both the ECM and GFS. Pleasant weather, Western counties might favour the warmest temperatures but large parts of the country getting over 20C , extremely low rainfall, light winds in the main, might be a little bit breezy along coasts at times but nothing much. GEM has Hp near by, different location but benefitting from warm temperatures.
ECM showing temperatures low to mid 20's next week, GFS a bit lower but getting into the low 20'S, GEM up to the mid 20's so good model agreement.
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ECM showing temperatures from the low to mid 20's at the second half of next week with a slack flabby area of LP to the S of us around Biscay / Spain and Hp to the N. Long way off but showing high Theta E readings and high Dp's so possibly introducing instability coming up from the S into the warmer airs over Ireland and the increased surface temperatures all possibly contributing to T- Storms. An interest to see if convection is possible at the end if next week....along with the good warm summery weather of course😀
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