FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

Unfortunately with a west based nao looking to emerge we are likely to get a conveyor belt of lows, so we will probably be waiting a while for settled conditions. It was looking good for another Northerly on the UKMO and GFS up until recently. Unless there is a sudden change, it would seem today is our last hurray courtesy of the recent SSW.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120334177#Comment_120334177

yep I feel the next 36 hours will be winters exit here. Second half of March is likely to be fairly unsettled and relatively mild in general.

nacho libre

Shame we could not have a chart like this come to fruition in January or February. I just hope our luck comes soon in that we get a ssw that delivers during the heart of winter

WolfeEire

NAO dipping back into negative territory later this week

A much colder turn in the second half of tonight's GFS pub run. Spring remaining on hold until April perhaps.

nacho libre

You wait all winter for a boxed in Greenland High then one comes along at the very end of March. If this isn't trolling I don't know what is!

Neddyusa

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120355940#Comment_120355940

Is it though? Surely this is the most common time of year for Greenland highs?

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120355940#Comment_120355940

UK met office long range suggesting drier and cooler conditions too.

Towards the end of March, pressure may become higher across northern areas and will likely be accompanied by colder conditions, whilst southern areas could see further wet weather at times. The northern edge of any rain will still be prone to fall as snow, but given the time of year, wintry hazards will likely become increasingly transient.

Tuesday 28 Mar - Tuesday 11 Apr

Confidence remains fairly low during this period. However, there are signs of more settled, drier conditions becoming established over much of the UK. Temperatures expected to be cooler than average with the greatest chance of significant rainfall and milder conditions in the south

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120355978#Comment_120355978

Yes, with the Polar Vortex naturally on the wane, April is the most likely time for Greenland Highs. I was just venting my frustration that we could not get a proper one, that did not become west based or decline quickly during winter. Perhaps next winter, if we get a moderate Él nino with a Easterly based qbo, we might get Northern Blocking in the heart of winter?

nacho libre

No sign of spring warmth here. It's interesting to see where the lows are originating from.

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120359285#Comment_120359285

Correct. No sign of any warmth whatsoever which pretty much seals a below average IMT for March. Precip levels should be close to normal with sunshine a lower than average based on the output.

WolfeEire

GFS control run playing an April Fools joke

nacho libre

Bank! I mean if only this was two months ago Cluedo monopoly. Has this thought ever struck you :)

ECM Control is cooler for the end of March as well.

Gonzo

looking at the charts posted above is heart breaking stuff after an entire winter without any verified eye candy. The coming week should be milder than average but the final week of March is definitely showing up a bit of a cooling trend. Yesterday's warmth was for me was the first signal that we are on the road to summer. Cold, cold go away you had your chance in winter and blew it. Hopefully we can get some nice high pressure charts going for April and May to end Spring on a warmer and dryer note.

nacho libre

The UKMO long range is indicating drier weather into April but it will be cool. So could be a high pressure to North or North west maybe in that scenario. Of course settled in England does not always guarantee we will be settled too.

Hooter23

There is still a lot of very cold air to the north...near the end of the month cold air still coming down to some places...it looks like its disrupting the jetstream more and bringing down freezing cold to some countries and sending very warm air up from the south to other places...so we could still end up with any kind of weather from the end of the month onwards...could even get record cold or record warmth for the time of year in some countries

WolfeEire

Ecm mean is quite cold with a greater chance of colder weather impacting the northern half of the island. All models showing potential for stormy weather at the end of the month.

Hooter23

Yes could be storms too with very cold winter air colliding and mixing with very warm spring air from the south..no storms showing up yet on the charts though...we have even got fairly big storms even into May in recent years too...so expect anything

Chris_5339762

Storms (maybe not enormous ones) would at least give us some sun after the rain belts and wind fields went through. The endless months of drizzle down south are beginning to grate. We haven't had a single full day of uninterrupted sun for absolutely months. You'd usually get that at some stage in winter.

pauldry

We often get cold weather heading into April. Remember a couple of years and it being 2 or 3c in the showers and 8c in the sun in April so probably just something like that.

Nothing unusual happens in Spring weatherwise. I find it the most boring or the seasons.

mcburns07

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120378401#Comment_120378401

Early spring is terrible, late April / May can be nice if we get a first taste of some warmth.

After all the rain we've had this March, i'm quite confident of at least some of spring being dry and pleasant.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120378401#Comment_120378401

Have to agree. Spring is boring. Roll on summer.

KanyeSouthEast

Don’t think we have a spring. It’s just winter but more daylight.

Rebelbrowser

From an imby perspective, even when we do get good weather in late Spring it tends to be accompanied by Southerly winds and so you get a big wind chill off the still cool sea down here. We often get days in April and May when it's 20c in, say, Mayo or Sligo and 12c down here.

Cluedo Monopoly

Embrace the light. Clocks changing in 5 days. Lovely bright evenings in store.

Chris_5339762

If the cloud would shift.

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120382119#Comment_120382119

Same in Leinster when we get an east wind late April or early May, it could be 12C-15C in Leinster and 23C in Galway/Shannon.

Getting back to the models and it doesn't look like there is a single dry day up to 384 hours on the GFS, just low pressure after low pressure.

Plenty of showers this weekend and fairly windy at times and feeling cool.

turns milder from Monday but no shortage of wind and rain.

Continues wet and unsettled into next weekend.

We finish up with a dartboard low right over Ireland delivering plenty of wind and rain.

So the unsettled theme continues right into the first week of April and possibly beyond. No sign of the Azores high or any other high pressure making a move any time soon.

As we move into April we have a warming trend but a very unsettled and progressively wet signal throughout.

Could be the middle or end of April before we can start thinking about dryer weather.

Potential for huge rainfall totals and flooding particularly in western areas, but all parts of the country will be wet or very wet with rainfall well above average over the next 2 weeks.

pauldry

Ya seems very wet this month but sure better the wet months being in March and April than June and July.

109mm of rain here so far in March. Wonder how near 200mm we will reach. Joanne Donnelly said the weather will be wet or showery for the foreseeable.

Storm 10

Gusting 77 km here in Galway never saw so much heavy rain as today non stop from 10am until around 9pm

Gonzo

GFS pub run showing signs of things settling down and warming up well into FI, could be a warm outlier.

Temperatures getting close to 20C.

Would love it this verified but probably very unlikely.

update: it is a very warm outlier, almost on it's own but we do have a fairly prolonged warmer than average temperature trend overall into April.

nacho libre

If only this was two months ago:). I will get my coat, or maybe not.