FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

DOCARCH

Joanna on RTE radio forecast towing the line with the ECM and going for a 1 day cold spell (next Tuesday).

Rebelbrowser

Though I note MTC is a bit more positive than that for us snow lovers in his morning forecast....

Derekon2021

Joanna from ME just on Morning Ireland - cold from the middle of Monday & Tuesday. Mild air back in for Wednesday - nothing to see here, move along folks

D

Rebelbrowser

Whereas I just heard the newscaster on Corks 96 FM declare in a scripted piece that there would be snow over the weekend, with temperatures plummeting to 0 to -2 all due to a phenomenon called a sudden stratosphere warming..... (deep breaths, deep breaths ....)

sideswipe

Fingers crossed it’s short lived and we can get on with warmer, longer spring days with the smell of fresh cut grass and buzzing of insects.

love cold and snow but when it gets into March I’m looking for ‘proper’ spring weather.

gerrybhoy

The most bullish I've seen MT for a while regarding the cold weather

Cluedo Monopoly

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308160#Comment_120308160

I'll take any event to be honest. She did say that the forecast beyond Wednesday was uncertain. All to play for I think. I hope!

squonk

Wouldn’t describe MTs forecast as bullish. From my reading what he’s saying it’s it’ll be general cold (true) and a few places will see a few showers at times with snow and hail. It strikes be that be night be working off some older data really. For my location anyway the ME app is showing pretty much what I’d expect anyway. I’d happily be corrected but at this point I’d rather get on with spring rather than what we have view, a long build up to a cold day with little in the way of snow.

gerrybhoy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308357#Comment_120308357

More regarding the extent of the cold, some others are saying mild etc. that was my point

Supercell

Fax T+120 (midday Tuesday)

Cold , 528 dam well to the south with a slack north/NNE airflow, north and northwest could get some snow, hopefully the east will get some nice crisp clear weather.

TTLF

Obviously Ireland and the UK can have different weather at the best of times but the met office just released a level 3 cold alert for the northern midlands of the UK which they wouldn’t have warranted if they were to go off what the ECM showed this morning…

Gonzo

At the moment caution is definitely advised we may need another day or 2 of model runs to see where we are for next week but at this stage I wouldn't be discounting the mild ECM/GEM runs. Cold looks likely from Monday but there is a chance it could all be over by Wednesday with the Atlantic sweeping in mild air, eyes down on the GFS/GEM and ECM 12z later today.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120308608#Comment_120308608

It’s amazing how quickly the mild air can move in off Atlantic and spoil things. Do we ever have any luck these days?

As you say this afternoon’s 12z’s will be important. Still all to play for with a few more swings to come I’d say.

WolfeEire

One again (like the 12Z), the ECM was a milder outlier from Wednesday. The main risk of more widespread snow next week comes from the Atlantic system. It will either be a slider low (snow) or one that completely sweeps away the cold (snow to rain event). I note that neither the AO or NAO return to positive territory in their indices so a breakdown on Thursday is far from certain.

.Donegal.

I’m off on Sunday for 1 week so I’ll miss any potential snow at home. Apart from showers, my hunch is somewhere on the island will get lucky with a frontal system. Potential is there for a persistent fall of snow. Hopefully I see some myself this week but chances currently look better at home. Hopefully you all get your fix!

Supercell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120309220#Comment_120309220

I'd say Donegal is a shoe-in for some snow unless the Atlantic really roars in faster than expected, pity you wont be there, or maybe not depending on your perspective!

Its a fairly slack airflow on Tuesday according to the fax T120 with low pressure to the east, there will likely be some CB's in the Irish sea, maybe some coastal areas - Arklow I'm thinking of you!, might get brushed by some at least.

pauldry

The same Joanna forecast a sunny day in the West last Sunday during Saturdays forecast. She's known to be wrong sometimes.

First 10 days of March will be cold apart from Wednesday. So milder Wednesday but then cooler air digs in again and back to 6s and 7s.

TheMilkyPirate

GFS still going for frontal snow across the south on Thursday on the 12Z

Gonzo

Not sure what I make of this since everything seems so uncertain especially snow and where it will fall and by how much, but this is the snowiest run I've seen for my area since 2018.

Gonzo

March continues to trend fairly chilly overall. A cold spell to come during the working week, should be relatively mild by Friday and into the weekend, however this mild change could get delayed. Not long after this we go cold again with a trend for another cold spell to occur including Saint Patricks Day and a bit beyond that.

Unlikely to verify but this looks potentially quite stormy for Scotland, certainly windy and feeling raw. For us it would still very fairly windy and showery at times.

This low pressure is centred close to us so the northerly flow would this time be unstable with mixed wintry showers making their way down across many parts of the country.

Stays very chilly until the 20th of March with a chance of milder Atlantic air coming around the high pressure from the north-west from the 21st, but depending on positioning of high presssure, we could still be in the cold at this point.

Above charts from the GFS 6z.

Ensemble graph from the GFS 00z shows the trend for a second cold spell quiet clearly.

Also to note the extended dry spell since early January is now coming to an end. Turning more unsettled from today with mixed wintry precipitation before a milder push for a while over the weekend, staying unsettled throughout and the possibility of another cold spell next week.

Back to the 6z for Precipitation and it looks fairly wet overall, although not as overly wet as the 00z.

Anyone wanting dry and mild/warm weather is going to have to wait a while.

Gonzo

GFS continues to trend towards another cold spell next week.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120329714#Comment_120329714

Unfortunately it looks like there will be a brief warm up over the weekend , but then it does look to go cold again across many of the models.

US3

Hoping the trend of cold spring scorching summer ala 2013/2018 continues

Elmer Blooker

theres always a ten day teaser from the ECM and here’s today’s ....

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120331719#Comment_120331719

It would be better if the very cold uppers -20 air - was about to descend on us. Has that ever happened before? I am guessing the answer is no.

Elmer Blooker

I think the 1987 pipe burster is the closest there is to -20 uppers in the archives?

Gonzo

I remember the 1987 event very well, there were alot of frozen and burst pipes and plenty of snow plus a week off school. I finished off the event by building a snow mountain in the front garden to see how long it would last after the grass level snow had melted away. Got about an extra 10 days of snow in the garden because of it.

Ragwort and Stones

-14 uppers 11 March 2013 is the best I remember for March.

nacho libre

Looking at some of the models this morning it looks like standard March fare for next week, cool and unsettled in a more zonal flow. No real sign of Northern Blocking returning , just weak wedges of heights at times.

Gonzo

Now that many of us will see sleet and snow today, once this cold snap is over I think many will just want more Spring like conditions to get going. Just hope we are not going back into a deluge pattern, nobody wants that.

Back to the models and next weeks potential cold spell trend is getting downgraded considerably and may not be more than a 24 hour glancing blow of cool air from the north. The Atlantic is looking fairly mobile for the next week or two with no shortage of precipitation.