FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

WolfeEire

Not convinced still although we have somewhat of a full house tonight with the pub run falling more into line. Looks like a cold blast of sorts around Monday-Wednesday but it may as brief as that. More runs needed, but we are soon heading out of FI territory so ...😬

Rebelbrowser

All the runs this morning show a north Eastern cold outbreak from next Sunday ish, with different durations. Decent enough model consistency. Thread incoming I suspect....

SleetAndSnow

Pretty mad to see all the big models (ECM, GFS, gem, ukmo, icon) all basically showing similar if the not the same outcomes. Usually there's always one..but alas, 6z to come yet!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296079#Comment_120296079

If the ec46 is correct, this first cold out break will be brief, but there will be more to come during this month

WolfeEire

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120296955#Comment_120296955

That looks about right, Nacho. The first blast, as things stand, simply ill not be cold enough to deliver any low level snow at least. Interested to see what the 12z output produces as a slight adjustment in the high would make a significant difference.

Gonzo

The EC46 looks at odds with all other models showing a very zonal and Atlantic driven March with plenty of rainfall and fairly mild overall. Not sure about that.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297578#Comment_120297578

It must have changed since I last saw it then, as it was showing a lot of blocking throughout March.

pauldry

The GFS looks very cold but that's all it will be. Very cold with biting wind and wintry showers not always snow. This first period of cold temperatures of 7 to 9c becomes 5 to 7c next week with minus 2 at night probably. Then single digits for quite a while into March. I think the mild interludes will be in the South but could be wrong. Can't be as boring as this weather at least.

sryanbruen

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297744#Comment_120297744

Gonzo is correct. It shows a lot of west based -NAO with a northerly tracking jet stream driving low pressure systems straight over us and eventually gets to a position conducive maybe to cold northeasterlies by the very end of the month into early April...

Think it's very safe to say blocking will be there and there will be the possibility of numerous attempts even if the first does not come to fruition which based on current modelling looks like it will come but be short before another attempt mid-month etc just due to the blocking remaining hold.

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120297944#Comment_120297944

So a repeat of 2018 is likely in some aspects , unfortunately without the snow storm and extreme cold!

DOCARCH

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298153#Comment_120298153

😂 That's probably a definite! Repeat of BFTE but without snow and not cold.

Storm 10

For ffs this is Majorca

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/beloved-brit-holiday-hotspot-unrecognisable-29332645

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298215#Comment_120298215

I think it will be cold, but probably not cold enough for snow to low levels during daylight hours. What I meant was in terms of similarity to the SSW in 2018 is this one leading to a west based nao too, and an unsettled spell for a while, before another cold push after mid month. Whatever happens I don't think we will be seeing warm spring weather for a while!

nacho libre

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298238#Comment_120298238

Saudi Arabia had snow too. We are being trolled:)

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298215#Comment_120298215

A big difference with 2018 is this is going to be 2 to 3 weeks later which is a huge difference in March, The difference between 20+cm of lying snow vs cold rain/sleet mid March onwards with maybe temporary dustings if we're lucky. After this we are looking at a once in a life time event for lying snow such as the Northern Ireland March 2013 snowfall which is extremely unlikely.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298690#Comment_120298690

Have some faith Gonzo! 😃

WolfeEire

Very cold looking ECM. Some instability in that airflow so Ulster, north Connacht and higher ground elsewhere could see lying snow.

esposito

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120298937#Comment_120298937

That is some chart. East could get some lying snow too you know.

CirrusBusiness

Kermit sees the 12z.

Things shaping up nicely. That is one cold looking run.

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299159#Comment_120299159

everyone needs to CALM DOWN!!! 🤪🤪🤪 Just one decent snowfall don’t care how long it lasts as long as I see it! And going by the charts Cork snow shield will be up!

Gonzo

I'm failing to see excitement in any of this evenings model runs. Dry northerlies again for the majority of the country, Donegal and Northern Ireland would get some wintry showers with snow cover inland and on high ground, very similar to early January so not much excitement for most of us, given how late we are into the year not as good as early January.

We would need polar lows or some sort of frontal activity to bring snow to more of the population and the republic in general, scattered showers won't cut it.

nacho libre

This is a colder airmass. With the instability and thickness levels there could be features that would pop up. The January cold spell delivered for more areas than just Donegal. Although much of the country did miss out. If the latest ECM comes off Ulster and much of Connacht could see snow.. Also other areas could see snow as previously mentioned . We need to bear in mind that the stronger sun could actually aid shower activity at this time of year too

WolfeEire

In terms of the longevity of this cold snap, the angle of the high that regresses towards Greenland is key. The flatter it is, the more likely it is that low pressure spilling out of Newfoundland will have a more direct route to Ireland. The more diagonal from NW to SE the high is, the higher the likelihood of a more sustained cold spell. At the moment, the trend is leaning towards the former.

In the latest GFS mean (144), you can see the high is a little flatter compared to the same time in the 12z. Ideally, you would be looking for more of a SE angle to the area of high pressure. In the 18z, you have the added issue of heights rising from west Africa.

nacho libre

It looks like a lot of support now for the high to go too far West in the end. So a short cold spell-hopefully a snowy one - before a likely milder and unsettled spell. If this Greenland High is the result of the first warming a couple of weeks ago, then we should see another cold push after mid March. Hopefully this would lead to the coldest possible uppers descending on us. As we would need something exceptional at that stage to deliver settling snow. If I had my way -16 uppers would be parked over us all winter!

Gonzo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120299929#Comment_120299929

We have difficulty getting -6 uppers in Winter, never mind -16 uppers!

almostthere12

Ukmo and ecm looking a lot better for us this morning with -8 uppers widespread.

nacho libre

The ECM has snow from showers moving down over us, and then some snow from a frontal system for parts of Ireland later on , but England take most of the snow from it, if the ECM precipitation charts are right. I just hope the ECM does not move towards the GFS, as that has crappy shortwave drama all over it, which means the cold gets blocked off and its all too marginal

WolfeEire

Ecm prolongs the cold through most of next week. The JMA and ECM on their own with quicker breakdown showing on GFS. Gem shows potential for slider low. Hard to call it to be honest. I'd walked away from it this morning but now ...

Cork2021

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/120302614#Comment_120302614

It’s landing it with a good net will be the problem! Slippery fish from the north east! 🤪

AnFearCeart

This has to be one of the most trolling charts yet this spell from an Irish POV. Southern UK gets pasted, again.