FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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We waited all winter for something to happen and nothing happened. It's a bit much looking for snow during the first 2 weeks of April outside of a once in a lifetime style event. At this stage I'm looking for outside garden lunch in a tshirt style of weather.
Looking at the charts it does look like things will finally start to settled down as we head into April, but will be rather cool rather than warm, but at least it will be a break from the Atlantic onslaught.
High pressure begins to take over from Sunday but it will be chilly.
remains dry till about Tuesday and staying on the cool side.
it may turn unsettled on the Wednesday but after this pressure rises again and we go into a chilly easterly.
High pressure in control generally to the end of the run with chilly easterly winds.
We finish up with high pressure moving towards the mid Atlantic and winds still in from the east.
I'll take it, a decent break from the Atlantic but it certainly won't be sunbathing weather. For much of this run eastern areas will struggle to reach 10C during daytime from Sunday onwards and we may see some night time frosts at times.
The overall trend in the GFS ensembles is a bit milder than the 00z run, this is one of the cooler runs especially towards the end.
Not all runs are high and dry either so there is a good bit of uncertainty in how settled it becomes and how long it lasts.
In terms of rainfall expect some rain over the next 2 weeks but nowhere nearly as wet as the past month has been.
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Unfortunately looking like turning fairly wet at times from Saturday , expected totals building again, not too warm either , looking relatively cool at times and about average at times also. Some signs of potentially windy weather also from around Weds or Thurs next week depending on how the Lows track.
Rough idea of expected rainfall up until Saturday and then
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Safe to say the 'dry spell' has been a complete and utter bust. Raining here tonight already after barely 2 dry days. The ensembles have quickly flipped to a very wet and unsettled outlook.
We may get one dry day at the weekend if we're lucky then back to the deluges.
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The models showing an area of LP with various, depths, tracks and wind speed around next Tues or so. Still out past +120hrs so only a wait and see how it pans out . Looks like a Jet influenced system . To note ECM was showing wet and windy yesterdays run on the 00Z eased away from it and now back again even stronger. I note also that the GFS showing less rain earlier but more on the latest run but not excessive.
I see a couple of cooler days currently showing up next week most notably Weds into Thurs, has a look of some convective weather in the unstable airmass after the LP/ depression goes through with possible hail / thunderstorms possibility and big showers and a couple of white peaks maybe for a brief time.
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Has the look of being very wet at times in off the Atlantic and a mix of some cool weather with cold nights and maybe a touch of frost and possibly getting a few days in the mid teens towards the end of the run.
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We are currently in a relatively cool, unsettled and chilly pattern between now and Saturday. However, big changes are possible from Sunday and through next week with warmer and dryer conditions. This is not nailed in just yet but I remain hopeful that next week we will finally feel mid Spring make it's presence felt.
Sunday see's things drying out and becoming milder as we switch back into a mild south-westerly windflow.
GFS is going for very mild to warm south-easterly winds as high pressure tries to influence our weather.
If this wind direction verifies temperatures could reach 18 or 19C and with sunshine possible this will feel very pleasant indeed.
As the week progresses winds will be more easterly so not as warm but still feeling pleasant if sunshine happens.
We finish up still mild but with the Atlantic possibly making a comeback.
Certainly next week is looking alot more pleasant than this week and nowhere nearly as unsettled.
This mornings Icon was keeping winds more long fetch easterly than south-easterly. This would give more cloudy weather with some showers and certainly cooler than the GFS. However the Icon 12z has now moved in line with the GFS and delivers a nice warm south-easterly.
GEM is similar but not as warm as the GFS or Icon with temperatures reaching 16 or 17C.
UKMO also similar enough with a brief south-easterly which then turns direct easterly.
We are looking at potentially the first warm spell of 2023, nothing too warm as it is only mid April but temperatures between 16 and 20C are possible next week for a few days, especially if decent sunny breaks occur. The positioning of the high pressure is key to how mild/warm/sunny it will get. Get the winds in from the south-east and high teens are possible with some sunny breaks. If the winds stay more easterly than this is likely to be more cloudy and certainly cooler around 13 or 14C rather than high teens. One to keep an eye on especially after all the rain and cool conditions of recent days.
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More under the influence of Hp and a lot more settled, pleasant getting into the mid teens and low amounts of rainfall showing up, GFS warmer than the ECM a couple of days at the end of the run. Might be a bit breezy at times but no strong winds of note, could be a bit windy at the end of the week for a time. Good drying.
Will take it.
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Posting this for archival sakes than anything serious, these maxima a week before May on 18z 😵
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Rather obscene charts for the time of year alright and hard to stomach, should they verify, after seeing 20c plus here today. On the colder end of the ensembles thankfully but the median itself isn't exactly mild.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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Those cold charts are absolutely insulting with summer now not that far away. No doubt next winter we will be plagued by mild muck all winter with high pressure stuck over France/Spain for the entire winter preventing any proper northerly or easterly.
The GFS 00z has an insane amount of scatter, extremely warm uppers +14 outliers to -8 uppers and everything else in between. We lose the reliable timeframe within 2 to 3 days from today with so much scatter.
I have a feeling this summer is going to be very mixed with some major swings in temperature to be expected, we will probably be in store for more heat plumes and chilly blasts.
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Just for fun, the most recent 18z GFS is going for a heavy sticking snow event in parts of the northwest and north midlands Saturday 6th May!
Where it's showing the higher snow depths, it's also showing total rainfall amounts for the 24 hour period of up 50mm so I'd imagine if the conditions did pan out as expected, you'd have a mighty slushy mess at lower levels with a sharp transition to deep snow with a relatively small increase in altitude. The area showing heaviest snow is not known for high ground so I'd be thinking the likes of Corn Hill (summit is 278m ASL) in Longford being the best contender for deep snow.
However, I have absolutely no confidence of this transpiring. Just posting whilst the charts are readily available.
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Slowly improving temperatures from midweek, ECM showing good improvement from Friday at around mid to high teens over the weekend and better again the start of the following week getting past 20C, introducing foggy conditions as well with those temperatures and cool nights, we will see if it sticks. Currently anyway not too much rain in general in the Southern half of the country. Will be showers at time and some frontal rain but nothing huge it would seem at this stage.
GFS not as warm in fact only reaching 13 or 14c next weekend and showing more precipitation, GEM even wetter, a bit milder for a few days but turning a bit cooler again, UKMO not bad into the weekend. Bit of uncertainty so as ever.
C'mon the ECM !
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