FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2023 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

At the moment caution is definitely advised we may need another day or 2 of model runs to see where we are for next week but at this stage I wouldn't be discounting the mild ECM/GEM runs. Cold looks likely from Monday but there is a chance it could all be over by Wednesday with the Atlantic sweeping in mild air, eyes down on the GFS/GEM and ECM 12z later today.

March continues to trend fairly chilly overall. A cold spell to come during the working week, should be relatively mild by Friday and into the weekend, however this mild change could get delayed. Not long after this we go cold again with a trend for another cold spell to occur including Saint Patricks Day and a bit beyond that.

Unlikely to verify but this looks potentially quite stormy for Scotland, certainly windy and feeling raw. For us it would still very fairly windy and showery at times.

This low pressure is centred close to us so the northerly flow would this time be unstable with mixed wintry showers making their way down across many parts of the country.

Stays very chilly until the 20th of March with a chance of milder Atlantic air coming around the high pressure from the north-west from the 21st, but depending on positioning of high presssure, we could still be in the cold at this point.

Above charts from the GFS 6z.

Ensemble graph from the GFS 00z shows the trend for a second cold spell quiet clearly.

Also to note the extended dry spell since early January is now coming to an end. Turning more unsettled from today with mixed wintry precipitation before a milder push for a while over the weekend, staying unsettled throughout and the possibility of another cold spell next week.

Back to the 6z for Precipitation and it looks fairly wet overall, although not as overly wet as the 00z.

Anyone wanting dry and mild/warm weather is going to have to wait a while.

Now that many of us will see sleet and snow today, once this cold snap is over I think many will just want more Spring like conditions to get going. Just hope we are not going back into a deluge pattern, nobody wants that.

Back to the models and next weeks potential cold spell trend is getting downgraded considerably and may not be more than a 24 hour glancing blow of cool air from the north. The Atlantic is looking fairly mobile for the next week or two with no shortage of precipitation.

yep I feel the next 36 hours will be winters exit here. Second half of March is likely to be fairly unsettled and relatively mild in general.

Same in Leinster when we get an east wind late April or early May, it could be 12C-15C in Leinster and 23C in Galway/Shannon.

Getting back to the models and it doesn't look like there is a single dry day up to 384 hours on the GFS, just low pressure after low pressure.

Plenty of showers this weekend and fairly windy at times and feeling cool.

turns milder from Monday but no shortage of wind and rain.

Continues wet and unsettled into next weekend.

We finish up with a dartboard low right over Ireland delivering plenty of wind and rain.

So the unsettled theme continues right into the first week of April and possibly beyond. No sign of the Azores high or any other high pressure making a move any time soon.

As we move into April we have a warming trend but a very unsettled and progressively wet signal throughout.

Could be the middle or end of April before we can start thinking about dryer weather.

Potential for huge rainfall totals and flooding particularly in western areas, but all parts of the country will be wet or very wet with rainfall well above average over the next 2 weeks.