Northern Ireland is now Catholic Majority

facehugger99

A UI is about 20 years away - the same as it was 40 years ago funnily enough.

Near enough to see it in your lifetime but far enough that you don't have to worry about any of the negative consequences.

maccored

what difference is it going to make? it was never about religion - it was always about land grabs and power. I know/knew very few republicans who were stout catholics - most were non religious. The religion card is differentiation introduced a few hundred years ago so the british could lie to their citizens and say the 'irish problem' wasnt due to their invasion and taking of land, but because of religious differences. It was never about religion.

Also, there was always a high number of people termed 'catholic' who would never have filled in a census as thats recognising being a citizen of the UK. As times change and that attitude (and people) die off, less 'catholics' avoid filling it in. theres prob been a majority for years.

maninasia

This is very important, not so much for any imminent unification, but so that the Unionist parties and British population wake up and realise its time they take the Irish side seriously and as equals. That means language and culture in particular but also accepting the First Minister and the protocol.

They should focus on fixing things there first .

Some further exonomic integration with Ireland could do them wonders, its obvious that Northern Ireland has a serious lack of investment

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653328#Comment_119653328

Yes but probably about 3 only.

Run Forest Run

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652240#Comment_119652240

The example of the Scottish referendum should give anyone who is impatient about a border poll on this Island, some serious pause for thought.

Timing can and very often is vitally important in life.

Had the SNP called that independence vote AFTER the whole brexit debacle, it's quite likely the yes vote might have got over the line. Such was the anger and shock surrounding the brexit result. As it stands now, Scottish nationalists might have to wait a long time for another opportunity. And there are many people in society that do not enjoy the atmosphere around such emotive issues, so tend to be a bit unlikely to embrace all the stress and turmoil that these votes can bring.

You can't just keep calling for border polls whenever you like, people will start to get sick of the whole thing and apathy might set in. So timing can be crucial if you really want the best chance of succeeding.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653624#Comment_119653624

3 decades? Yeah, that seems a fairly reasonable projection. Will depend a lot on external events also you'd suspect.

Podge_irl

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652240#Comment_119652240

While I have no sympathy for The Irish Question once again blighting British politics, it is and will remain an internal British political question of if a border poll is called. I think SF could get 100 seats in the Dail and it wouldn't matter if the govt in Westminster had their own political reasons for not calling a border poll.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653679#Comment_119653679

I totally agree with you that you can't be looking for border polls every hands turn, and that such devicive debates do put a lot of people off.

But you could not have expected the SNP to wait till after Brexit because Brexit in 2013/2014 wasn't even a thing.

The first real indication of a date for a Brexit vote was in Jan 2013 when Cameron said that he would have a vote before 2017 if the Conservative party was returned to government in the 2015 general elections.

It was a mere two months later that the date for indyref was announced.

No one planning the date for indyref could have predicted Brexit.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058264448/northern-ireland-is-now-catholic-majority

And the Free State/ Republic was set up as a 'Catholic State for a Catholic People'.

And that's how it turned out and look how that went, before you slap yourself on the back.

If anything we've moved away from religion and religious identity and so in time will the 'catholics' up north, so it's meaningless statistic.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653679#Comment_119653679

As I have said a border poll that goes down narrowly would not be a bad thing from SF's POV. I highly doubt their leadership believes one this decade has a genuine chance of passing and yet they are pressing very hard for one.

Run Forest Run

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654122#Comment_119654122

They don't really have a choice.

Quite a large % of people only vote for them because they are seen as the most hungry for unification... if they lost this reputation because they didn't have the b*lls to call for a border poll, then they would lose much of their base quite rapidly. But they could also easily get a reputation for failure to achieve their objectives, and all political parties are subject to the consequences of this.

Botching up the objective of reunification by making poorly thought out decisions or getting their timing spectacularly wrong, is potentially every bit as dangerous for them.

Loafing Oaf

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654167#Comment_119654167

Botching up the objective of reunification by making poorly thought out decisions or getting their timing spectacularly wrong, is potentially every bit as dangerous for them.

I'm not seeing this is a major issue: inevitable demographic shift as evidenced by censuses, opinion polls etc. means the question can never be off the table again until unity is achieved. A border poll in the late 2020s that gets a 45% yes or slightly less means there is a strong case for another one ten years later, when there would be a realistic but still outside chance of it actually passing.

steddyeddy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058264448/northern-ireland-is-now-catholic-majority

This. Imagine Israel becoming mostly Palestinian.

murpho999

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119652480#Comment_119652480

Why do people always say there will be violence?

It's not going to work if this is forced on people like partition was.

It will have to be negotiated and agreed and present unionists will have to be brought along, which is a trend that could happen especially as things change in UK with current climate there of new monarch, Brexit and loss of influence on world stage, and the status of Scotland.

If unionists are convinced that they would have more say and influence in a United Ireland than they do now then they would support a United Ireland and then only a small extreme group, equivalent to current day IRA splinter groups would resist it.

That's why I think it's too early for a border poll now, as unionists are not there yet but I think Sinn Fein are thinking that way too given the conciliatory tone they are currently taking and they need to get Michelle O'Neill in as First Minister to show unionists how diplomatic she can be which I think is one of the main reasons the DUP don't want to go back to Stormont as they're afraid of that but use the protocol as a smokescreen.

murpho999

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653563#Comment_119653563

I think it's a lot closer than that, especially , if UK economy continues to decline as expected post Brexit and 100% certain to be quicker if Scotland votes independent.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119650920#Comment_119650920

I wonder how long it will take Muhammed to be the most popular baby name in Belfast.

Furze99

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654257#Comment_119654257

I agree with you but sadly there is little or no evidence that 'present unionists' are being brought along or wooed by those who aspire to a UI. If anything the attitude is 'let them like it or lump it' and 'the boot is on the other foot now' etc

SF in particular has built a profile by emphasising their nationalism and how different they are from their unionist neighbours. Instead of building bridges and bringing people along, they constantly seek out points of difference. An example - the south got independence in 1922 and a constitution as a Republic in 1937. In this constitution the Irish language was defined as the first language in an aspirational way. It took a further 66 years for the nationalistic language lobby to get this primacy enforced across public administration with the Official Languages Act 2003, 81 years after independence.

Now ask what do the nationalistic language lobby want to do up north. They want an equivalent type language act without even waiting for constitutional change, to further drive division between the communities. Hopeless lot altogether.

ELM327

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654319#Comment_119654319

I doubt it will change very much compared to the rest of Ireland and to GB.

Anyway, once Muhammed votes for reunification he can do what he likes

Bernie138

As a (very contented) immigrant to Ireland from Scotland I'm a bit confused as to how Scottish independence has become conflated with Irish unity. The two things are totally separate.

The first is less likely by the day as Scots finally take on board the financial implications of loss of UK subsidies and separation from their major market by a hard border. Then there is the likelihood of endless waiting for EU membership (which NOT everyone in the SNP actually wants anyway) while Spain and France veto entry so as not to encourage the Basque and Catalan independence ambitions.

On the other hand (whisper it, and no sniggering at the back), England actually does not care a fig about the loyalists in Northern Ireland. As soon as there is a consensus in Ireland and decent chance of offloading Northern Ireland with minimal bloodshed and loss of face, it's done.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653429#Comment_119653429

i don't think i will, to be honest.

end of the road

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119653563#Comment_119653563

the so-called negative consequences are only figments of the imagination of those veramently against a UI cause SF support it.

lets have a look at the often named ones.

subvention.

the costs of northern ireland currently are in the majority, the subventing of northern ireland's contributions to britain's institutions, with those gone in a UI the cost of subvention falls hugely meaning its barely a blip in terms of costs, no different to the subventing of other regions. a bit of catching up to do for NI but within a UI foreign investment is a certainty.

the loyalists will go mad.

well, some of them might, but it would be for nothing and they wouldn't have the same supports in place that they did during the troubles, so rioting which is easily managed by the police is about all they can do. them trying to plant bombs won't be tolerated by the majority of unionists now.

so ultimately, there is now no argument against a UI, and realistically it is coming soon as brexit destroys the UK.

maccored

the UI argument cant happen yet as the idea itself needs to be discussed nationally. too many have the overly simplistic idea its one region taking over another when in reality its a complete rebuild of everything thats required

facehugger99

I don't even think a referendum in the Republic would be likely to pass.

When the words 'Unification Tax' are first mentioned, support will melt away.

The Irish electorate have consistently demonstrated they are unwilling to pay for anything.

The best part of a united Ireland would be integrating the Unionists into the Republic. I like the idea of their no-nonsense attitude slapping some sense into the Dail and cutting the amount of wasted resources in the quango industry.

It could only be a positive thing for taxpayers to have them challenging the way things are done.

blanch152

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654392#Comment_119654392

SF are all about promoting division. They are most successful in a divided society.

gmisk

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119655689#Comment_119655689

I genuinely can't tell if you are joking or not....

But unionists politicians waste an insane amount of resources and taxpayers money whether in Westminster or in Stormont. They also love a quango despite some stating the opposite. Even the most cursory glance will show you that.

cgcsb

There'll likely be a referendum before the next census and it will likely be decided by the middle ground and the sectarian headcount.

Unionism still has a 1 seat lead in stormont, the age profile of unionist voters means that within 6 years that margin will likely be gone. Westminster will be keen to chuck the place after all the troubles they've had with NI unionism. So sos will probably call the ref when the number of nationalist mlas is higher than unionist ones. I would predict a marginal win for nationalism and the likely outcome, defined by citizens assembly, will likely include some degree of autonomy for stormont with more council area autonomy on things like language and culture etc. The UK may offer residents of the region British passports. The timeline would also depend on what happens in Scotland. Anecdotally I've seen on social media some of the hardcore unionist people are muttering about moving to the 'mainland' out of sheer butthurt. I think they might be a bit shocked at how foreign they find themselves, England and Scotland aren't as they were 1700 and they don't march, burn things or denigrate other ethnicities anymore.

I find it interesting the number of people commenting on the NHS as if it were a superior system than the HSE. That is mostly pro British propaganda. The reality is life expectancy in NI is 2 years less than in the Republic, largely because of a health system that promotes preventative action and relatively speedy interventions.

NI is all waiting lists, you'll probably die on one of their waiting lists, even with relatively minor health issues, and there are few private options.

Even compare GP care, Republic you can call and be seen same day or next day for about €60. You can go to a rapid injury clinic and be x rayed, medicated, diagnosed etc. Inside of an hour for €100 or free on your insurance. That level of care just doesn't exist in NI. You'd be a fool to want that type of system. What the south has is a lot better in terms of medical outcomes and cost (yes the NHS costs a lot of money).

In any case, I don't see why it really matters? How often do you see a doctor, every year or 2? What matters is the Republic has near double the average wage and a higher standard of living by every measure and you can expect to secure good employment in almost any sector. The Republic's prosperity exists largely because we rule ourselves. Being ruled by the English has been devastating for the likes of Wales and NI, which was once the wealthiest part of Ireland, and now has an economy about a tenth the size of the Republic.

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119654421#Comment_119654421

Its not that difficult to figure how Scottish independence becomes conflated with Irish unity.

If Scotland were to vote for independence in the near future (big "if" I know) then it would make people look at the situation in NI in a different light.

How viable would the whole union be with Scotland gone ?

gormdubhgorm

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119651045#Comment_119651045

Exactly, many posters on here no doubt will gleefully claim the rise of the Catholic majority = unification soon/likely.

But that is a false narrative in order to shoehorn in an agenda. The reality is religion no longer plays a massive part in a persons identity, as it once did. In NI or the ROI.

So having more Catholics than Protestants is really an irrelevance to whether there will be unification. The key part in your above post is 19.8% said 'Northern Irish Only'. I expect this percentage to grow in the coming years. As new generations grow up without the idealogical baggage of attachment to Britain or the ROI. I hope I am correct, because it will be a building block for a more normally run state.

If the Alliance/SDLP make ground instead of the more divisive parties this could happen. As the SF slogan 'down south' goes. 'Time for a change' 'The party for Change'. But that is flipped on its head in NI, decades of rule, with little change.

But, in my opinion it is the people who view themselves as 'NI only' who will be fundamental to the future of NI and getting real change. Less political football symbolism, less ideologues on both sides, and concrete practical governance. A time when 'Catholic or Protestant' will be a complete anachronism, a poll from a bygone age.

petronius

It is more symbolic than anything else, more identify as from a catholic background than from a protestant background.

It is hard to interpret things, what passport do you hold, I have GAA playing friends and relatives that have both Irish and UK passports, because it was easier for them when travelling for some visas etc. I know die-hard Unionists, who travel on Irish passports, consider themselves Irish but also British.